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Comparing two games from last week makes an interesting case study in why this is far from an exact science.

On one hand, you’ve got the Denver Broncos run defense facing the Atlanta Falcons run offense. A clear mismatch, as the Broncos have been bad against the rush all season and the Falcons have been running over people all season.

On the other hand, you’ve got the Chicago Bears pass defense facing the Green Bay Packers pass offense. Not only has the Bears pass defense been ranked near the bottom of the league all year long, but the Packers have been making their way through the season on the arm of Aaron Rodgers. On top of that, the entire week prior to that game, Bears players were openly questioning their defensive scheme while Greg Jennings was openly saying he saw so many holes they would exploit in the Bears defense, that he had to stop watching game film.

So what happened?

The Broncos spent all week in pads improving their run defense and while they were already missing four starters on defense, Mike Shanahan went and inserted John Engelberger at DE in place of Elvis Dulmervil in order to sure up their front four. The result: Atlanta ran 35 times for just 3.3 yards per carry and the Broncos won a big road game, 24-20.

In Chicago, the Bears apparently did nothing to fix the obvious holes on their defense and got embarrassed by the Packers, 37-3. Rodgers competed 23 of 30 in that game, good for 76.7%.

So bottom line, as I wrote last week:

“The Bears clearly have a schematic problem on defense, as evidenced by this story from Dan Arkush. Picking a side in this game is essentially picking whether or not Chicago will fix this during the week.”

Great. So I’ll guess I’ll turn on my mind-reading machine and move on to the picks.

The 4pm gravy train kept rolling last week, going 2-0 and upping the season total to 19-5. We’ll start with those games first.

OAKLAND at DENVER (-9.5) – Mike Shanahan just doesn’t lose games to Oakland anymore (21-6 vs OAK since ‘95). And last week’s defensive effort against the Falcons didn’t look like a fluke to me. Their front seven really stepped up and took away the middle of the field from Turner for most of the game. They also weren’t shy to send 7 and 8 blitzers on occasion against the young Matt Ryan. Look for more against the Raiders. On offense, Denver has as stud at LT in Ryan Clady, and he’ll be able to control either Kalimba Edwards or Derrick Burgess. It’ll be interesting to see how Jay Cutler and Shanahan approach the Asomugha issue. Eddie Royal and Tony Scheffler should shine. Somewhere, someone in Denver will have eye black tape with ‘This one’s for Lane’ written on it. Double digit dogs have apparently covered 14 out of 15 this year. Good thing this one is at 9.5.
Broncos -9.5

CAROLINA at ATLANTA (-1) – Everyone is falling off the Panthers wagon after two horrible weeks from Jake Delhomme. It’s hard to say what’s wrong with him. My opinion is that the Panthers have simply not been challenged. At 8-2, both losses were on the road to teams who stop the run (MIN and TB). Now at ATL, then at GB, and home vs TB, I think the Panthers will rekindle their intensity this week and turn things up. Matt Ryan lost his first home game last week, but he was in a position to take back the lead late in the 4th before a holding penalty on 2nd down and a drop in the end zone on third down sent his comeback off the tracks. The Falcons will need their defense to show up big to win this one, but I wouldn’t count on their key player, John Abraham, to be effective enough to carry them. Atlanta’s pass rush revolves around Abraham, but after seeing how comfortable Cutler was during the second half of last week’s game with Abraham out, I’m taking the Panthers here.
Panthers +1

NY GIANTS at ARIZONA (+3) – Kurt Warner is having a great season, but he’s still Kurt Warner. And by now we all know that if you can pressure him, you can beat him. Arizona is 7-3, but against non NFC West opponents this season they are 3-3. What NY did to the Ravens last week stunned a lot of people. Me included. Just, stunned. The big talk this season is how deep the Giants are as a team. What they have going is truly amazing. This’ll be a game where Eli Manning will have to play well. You beat the Cards through the air and Manning will need to exploit an Arizona secondary that has been hit by injuries.
Giants -3

WASHINGTON at SEATTLE ( +3.5) – Jason Campbell needs a breather and he’ll get it. His last two games have been against the Steelers and a jazzed up Cowboys defense that, combined, held Campbell to a total of 368 yards on 77 attempts! Last weeks final score for Seattle may have looked close, but it was 26-7 Arizona after three quarters and for the entire game the Seahawks were outgained 196 to 458. After not throwing an INT for the first half of the season, Campbell has thrown 3 in his last two games. Against Seattle, he’ll face a defense that has recorded just 5 INTs all year (t-28th) and that will again be missing Patrick Kerney. Washington wins this because they’ll focus all week on pass protection, keeping things clean for Campbell in the pocket. Washington wins this because they have one of the best kept defenses in the league. Finally, Washington wins this because their new head coach is a former Seahawks coach who will teach his team how to neutralize Seattle best weapon right now, the home crowd.
Skins -3.5

That’s it for the 4pm games. I’m picking all 4 this week, so I doubt a 4-0 is possible. Here are some other picks:

TAMPA BAY at DETROIT (+8.5) – This is just the kind of game where the Bucs don’t blowout other teams. They’ve got the Saints at home next week, and are coming off a week where the offense struggled to do anything other than attempt field goals. There’s some transition at running back, and the matchups just aren’t there. A tampa 2 defense like the Lions is at its best when facing a check down team with a scrambling quarterback and small running backs. That’s basically what the Bucs will bring into town this week. Culpepper hasn’t faced the Bucs since 2005 (when he had 3 INTs in the season opener), but he has played six career regular season games against Monte Kiffin and hasn’t been horrible against him. He hasn’t been great either. With Tennessee, Minnesota, Indy, New Orleans, and Green Bay the only teams left on their schedule after Tampa, this really is probably the Lions best shot left to record a win. That’s scary.
Lions +8.5

NY JETS at TENNESSEE (-5.5) – One of the quiet weaknesses of this Jets team this season has their inability to stop the pass when everyone knows their opponent is passing. Teams have been very, very effective when they spread things out, pulling Kris Jenkins off the field, and exploit this young Jets secondary. That’s a big reason NY signed Ty Law, but is that enough? Well, against the Titans, I think it may just be. Spreading things out is just not what the Titans want to do. So while the Jets are a public favorite, I think the time for us to find value in the Titans has come to an end. Tennesse is 9-1 ATS this year, but like the Pats last year, if Fisher’s bunch keeps winning, their future lines will keep growing. Also, I’ll just note that if the Jets win this game, I may have to turn off the tv and not read sports stories for two weeks.
Jets +5.5

GREEN BAY at NEW ORLEANS (-2.5) – There’s no way this Packers defense is as good as the stats showed last week against Chicago. Not without Jenkins and Barnett in there. And their man under, rush 4 style is the kind of defense Drew Brees will eat up. Not only that, but I like what the Saints run defense is doing this year. The Packers’ schedule is really one of the toughest in the league. They’ve been making their way through the NFC and AFC South. Only one of their losses has been against a division foe, and that was a 1 point defeat to the Vikings two weeks ago. Against the spread, the Packers are 19-6-1 since 2007, but this looks like another tough position for them to be in. Over, even though its high, would be a good play here too.
Saints -2.5

That’s all I’m officially taking, but the other picks this week are:
PIT -10.5, HOU +3, SF +10, KC +3, CHI -8.5, NE -1.5, JAX -2.5, BAL -1, and SD -3.
I actually really like Chicago, Baltimore and the 49ers, but I’m too tired to write anything up.

Last Week: 5-8 | 42-45 | 4pm: 19-5