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This is the time of year to stop thinking about what teams/players should be good, and what teams/players are actually playing at a high level. I made that mistake last year with not recognizing what the Giants were starting to put together. So this year, I’m on high alert for underachievers and overachievers.

Also, and quite predictably, the 4pm games suffered defeat last week. That’s what happens when you get out of your normal routine. Happy Thanksgiving to all.

TENNESSEE at DETROIT (+11) – First of all, it is mandatory to mention that no matter how bad the Lions have been, they’ve always showed up to play for their Thanksgiving game. Or used to, that is. Over the last four season, the Lions have been blown out every year. Who scheduled this game? If DeAngelo Williams and Jonathan Stewart can each run for over 100 yards against your defense, then so can LenDale White and Chris Johnson. The Lions covered against the Panthers, but won’t against the Titans.
Titans -11

SEATTLE at DALLAS (-12.5) – Just about every matchup here screams Dallas. Seattle’s secondary constantly gets burned deep and that’s the only think working right now with the Cowboys pass offense. Still, Dallas has defeated only one team by two touchdowns this season and that was week one against Cleveland. They won by 13 last week against the 49ers, but that game was anything but a dominating Dallas performance. Assuming Seattle actually tries to block Jay Ratliff this week, I just don’t see the Cowboys pulling away here.
Seattle +12.5

ARIZONA at PHILADELPHIA (-3) – Reid has named McNabb starter for week 13, but that may be more because of how poorly Kevin Kolb played in week 12 than it is because the team is committed to McNabb. Donovan is saying the right things, but too many other people are saying that as soon as the Eagles are eliminated, they’ll turn to the future (ie, not McNabb). Arizona will benefit from having played the Giants defense last week. Steve Spagnola runs a similar system to what Jim Johnson runs in Philly, so the Cards will be able to look at fresh tape and pick apart their offensive breakdowns. And even then, those breakdowns were few – the Cards had a lot of hidden yardage in last week’s game from NYG defensive penalties. The Cards’ special teams also played poorly against the Giants, so there’s another area of weakness that Arizona can sure up during this short week. The bottom line against the Giants is that Arizona played pretty well against the best team in football. Their offense moved the ball well, but their defense just couldn’t stop New York. Something tells me the Cards are going to destroy Philadelphia on Thursday night.
Cards +3

CAROLINA at GREEN BAY (-3) – I stand by the notion that Carolina will succeed against teams who give up yards on the ground. Right now, that’s the Packers weakest point. The Panthers had closed last week’s deficit to just 3 points midway through the fourth quarter before Atlanta started to pull away. I like Chris Gamble matched up against Greg Jennings here. But mostly, I like the Panthers against a Packers defense that Football Outsiders currently ranks 3rd against the pass and 29th against the run. More from FOs: the Panthers have a 81% success rate in Power running (1st) and have earned 24% of their rushing yards on gains of 10 or more yards (2nd). Green Bay’s defensive line ranks 26th and 24th, respectively, in those categories. On the road, the Panthers should control the ground game and operate in their comfort zone offensively. The over here probably isn’t a bad move either.
Panthers +3

SAN FRANCISCO at BUFFALO (-6.5) – The Bills defense has played well enough to keep them in games this year. Only once have they been blown out once, and if you throw out their highest and lowest totals against, their average ppg allowed is 18.91. The problem has clearly been on offense, where Trent Edwards seems more unprepared to play than he seems unable to play. Against the 49ers, though, that may not be a problem. In the three games since Singletary took over, SF has allowed Dallas, Arizona, and St Louis to throw all over them. Sure, Dallas and Arizona. But letting Marc Bulger complete 64.2 percent for 295 on this year’s Rams team should raise concern. Add in to that the whole west cost team coming east for a 1pm kickoff factor, makes picking the 49ers here a difficult proposition. I think the Bills have proven one thing to us this year: they beat bad teams and struggle against all others. The Chiefs spread offense moved the ball well last week, so I look for a high scoring game here.
Over 42.5

NY GIANTS at WASHINGTON (+3.5) – Tom Coughlin’s ability to keep this Giants team motivated this year deserves coach of the year consideration. They have continued to improve themselves – either despite of or in spite of their championship belt. I think their lines continue to be low because people are expecting them to lose. I don’t know if that’s going to happen. Best team in football. Washington’s offense have been accused of being predictable this year. They really should have done more against Seattle last week. They point totals this season are very uninspiring – especially since week 6. But they seem to keep games close. I’d buy this line down to 3 if you can.
Giants -3.5

KANSAS CITY at OAKLAND (-3) – How could the Denver Broncos go east and beat one of the better teams in the NFC (Atlanta) and then return home and lose to one of the worst teams in the league? I guess it’s a simple as playcalling. The Falcons did a terrible job in maintaining their focus on the fun against the Broncos two weeks ago. They came out throwing and never really fully tested the Broncos young linebackers. But Oakland’s Tom Cable sure did last week. JaMarcus Russell threw only 11 passes, and completed 10 of them! Anyone who can do that knows how to get the best out of their players! Two weeks ago, the Raiders almost beat Miami in Miami and then went to Denver and destroyed the Broncos on both sides of the both. I would call both games impressive. Assuming they don’t get off track of what they’ve done lately, the Raiders should blow out a Chiefs team that needs to throw to move the ball. Man, I’m actually excited about taking the Raiders this week?
Raiders -3

PITTSBURGH at NEW ENGLAND (-1) – The Pats are slight favorites here because we’re all waiting to see what Matt Cassell can do now against the one of the top pass defenses. While we’re all waiting, Cassell is growing into a real starting quarterback. He doesn’t look as lost inside the pocket and he’s finally challenging defenses. But, one thing he still doesn’t have is deep accuracy. Last week against Miami, the Pats ran most of their offense from the shotgun – throwing screens and draw plays at the defense to balance things out. Lots of Kevin Faulk and Wes Welker. They’ll use that same game plan against the Steelers here. With the o/u set at 40, I’ll call this a little bit of a shootout. I like the Pats to win it too.
Over 40

JACKSONVILLE at HOUSTON (-3) – The Texans did something new last week on defense. They actually starting blitzing and put pressure on the quarterback. I’m basically picking them here with the idea that they’ve found something on defense that’ll work. Their safeties are not good, so now that they’ve stopped sitting back and playing coverage games, I look for a new style that allows them to relay on the talent they have at cornerback (Robinson, Reeves, Bennett) to be successful.
Texans -3

One last note: Jets backers, watch out this week. 7.5 points is a lot against a team that can spread things our and exploit New York’s weaknesses on defense. I expect Jay Cutler will throw at least 50 passes here.

Last Week: 3-4 | 45-49 | 4pms: 20-8