Sportsfrog.com

First things first, the difference between Jay Buhner and Melky Cabrera is that Buhner had a discernable talent in the minors: Power. (Two talents, I guess, if you count his right cannon.) Melky is a good glove in CF but over his first 1,600 major league PAs, he’s yet to exhibit much on the offensive side that makes you think he can contribute to a playoff team. His batting average has been mediocre, his walk rate subpar, he’s not much of a basestealer and he hasn’t flashed power outside of a single month (April 2008). Right now, his upside looks to be as a middle-of-the-road CF on a 2nd division team who does everything ok and nothing exceptionally well. If none of his offensive tools develop and he outgrows CF, a distinct possibility, he might be out of the league and forgotten by age 30.

A team with the Yankees’ 2009 expectations and resources can’t afford to give Cabrera a 4th straight 450 PA season and see if its going to click. Brett Gardner is also not the answer. To flip either of them for Mike Cameron, if the trade gets finalized, is a great low-risk short term move. Cameron is Cabrera’s equal in CF, if not better, and offensively contributes two things the Yankees lineup needs, power and plate discipline. In letting Giambi and Abreu leave, the Yankees lost the 3rd and 4th ranking hitters, respectively, in terms of pitches seen per plate appearance. In picking up Swisher and (possibly) Cameron, the Yankees would offset those losses by plugging in hitters who ranked 1st and 7th overall. While a head to head comparison would indicate the Yankees are still losing more offense than they’re gaining, it really shouldn’t be viewed this way. Baring injuries, the Yankees are shuffling 4 in and 4 out of their everyday lineup. Abreu, Giambi, Molina and Melky/Gardner are gone, replaced with Matsui, Posada, Swisher and Cameron. So, in essence, Cameron and Swisher are really only being asked to exceed the “production” of the Molina / CF tandem from last season. If all those two do is sit at the bottom of the lineup, bang out 20 HRs each and see 9 pitches every time through the lineup, the Yankees are an improved team. If Swisher reverts to his Oakland form and Cameron goes for 25/25, the Yankees are vastly improved.

(Caveat of sorts: Cameron was my 2nd choice in CF. If this trade falls through and the Yankees make a run at NYC boy David DeJesus, despite the higher return that would be necessary, I’ll be even happier.)