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TENNESSEE at HOUSTON (+3) - The last time the Texans faced a team that was as committed to running the football as the Titans are, Houston lost 13-41 at home versus the Ravens. Football Outsiders has the Texans run defense ranked dead last in the league right now, and considering the competition they’ve faced over their recent three game winning streak (Browns, Jags, Packers), I’d be very surprised if the Titans didn’t easily cover this game.
Titans -3

GREEN BAY at JACKSONIVILLE (+2.5) - Hard to believe, but the Jags running game is just a middle of the road attack right now. It’s been well noted now that injuries along the offensive line have contributed, but don’t overlook the decline of Jacksonville’s defense as a major reason why the running game isn’t putting up those 200 yard games we’ve seen in the past. The Jags D is near the bottom third against both the run and the pass. They’ve lost four games in a row now, never scoring more than 17 points and never giving up less than 23 points in any of those games. Meanwhile, the Packers come into north Florida having lost three in a row, and just seem to be a much more competitive team right now. They are only 2-4 on the road this year - with both win against subpar teams (Seattle, Detroit) - but were close against the Titans (lost by 3) and the Vikings (lost by 1).
Packers -2.5

BUFFALO at NY JETS (-7.5) - The Bills are probably not really as bad as 7.5 dogs here, but with the Jets coming off two straight losses, it’s hard not to follow them here. I see the Jets 3-4 defense forcing JP Losman to take off out of the pocket unnecessarily about 14 times in this game. Plus, the New York running game against the smallish Bills defense looks like a good matchup too. There’s no way the Bills can run against the Jets defense, and there’s no way Losman is going to beat them.
Jets -7.5

MINNESOTA at ARIZONA (-3) - This is one of those matchups where the strong Vikings run defense, especially in the middle, won’t matter much since the Cardinals don’t rely on that to succeed. As Football Outsiders notes, ‘Arizona ranks 31st in Adjusted Line Yards going up the middle, while Minnesota is fourth on defense.’ The Vikes have won three in a row, and five out of their last six, but are just 3-4 and 2-5 ATS on the road this season. The Cards blew a big one for me on Thanksgiving, and I like them a lot here to make up for that disappointment.
Cards -3

Other notes on games:
The Lions, a 17 point underdog today in Indy, are 4-2 ATS on the road this season. And those games have been against some decent teams (ATL, SF, MIN, HOU, CHI, CAR)… The 49ers, a 6 point underdog today in Miami, are 4-1 ATS under Mike Singletary - and three of those games were on the road… Before Ron Rivera took over as defensive coordinator for the Chargers, San Diego was giving up 24.86 points per game on defense. Since Rivera took over five games ago, they are giving up only 16.4. The biggest reason for the improvement, more blitzing - less sitting back in 7 man coverages… I was tempted to take the Ravens today, mostly because its usually good to follow the sharp pick of the week. But I’ve got too many favorites already and I don’t see the matchup edge.

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