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My fundamental theorem of betting on bowl games (especially against the spread) is to try and identify how motivated each team is likely to be.

History proves time and time again that in the “lesser” bowl games, a highly motivated team is likely to perform better than a team that is “settling” for a particular bowl game (especially if it is a major conference team near .500 in a minor bowl game against a non-BCS opponent)

This is not a foolproof theory, nor is it the only factor that goes into my evaluation, but it is an important one and is only applicable to this time of year.

(Let me just also say that writing a sentence or two on 34 games is a lot harder than it sounds.)

Navy (+3) vs. Wake Forest — Navy has been playing surprisingly well on defense to go with their daunting offense. Wake is likely not excited to be playing in a lower-tier bowl game against a team it has already played this year.

Fresno State (-3) vs. Colorado State – The rumors about Pat Hill not being happy at Fresno give me some pause, as does the Bulldogs’ struggles this season, but they are considerably better than the Rams.

Memphis (+12.5) vs. South Florida — I only like this play for the points.

BYU (+3) vs. Arizona — The Las Vegas Bowl is about a year away from being renamed the BYU/Las Vegas Bowl, but the all the Mormons in Las Vegas love them some BYU. This is basically a home game for the Cougars.

Troy (-4) vs. Southern Miss — USM played well to even make it to a bowl, but should be overmatched against an underrated Troy team.

TCU (-2.5) vs. Boise State — This is probably one of the three or four most intriguing bowl matchups. Boise State is vastly overrated thanks to a very grim schedule. This is one of my best bets this bowl season.

Notre Dame (+1.5) vs Hawaii — Despite it being a home game for the Warriors, would you ever imagine Notre Dame being an underdog to Hawaii? I think the Irish will be sufficiently motivated to break their embarrassing bowl losing streak.

Central Michigan (-6.5) vs. Florida Atlantic — After losing their last two games of the season, CMU will be eager to get the bitter taste out of their mouth. This should be a high-scoring game.

North Carolina (-1) vs. West Virginia — ACC vs. Big East? Who the hell knows?

Florida State (-4.5) vs. Wisconsin — This is another one of my best bets. Wisconsin was dreadful for most of the season.

California (-7) vs. Miami (FL) — I was tempted to take the points, but I don’t see Miami keeping this that close.

Louisiana Tech (+1) vs. Northern Illinois — Kind of surprised La. Tech isn’t giving more points.

N.C. State (+7) vs. Rutgers — N.C. State and Rutgers finished the year as two of the hottest teams in the country. The layoff will slow them down a little, but give me the points and I’ll take it.

Missouri (-13) vs. Northwestern — This is going to be ugly. Mizzou might win by 40.

Nevada (-1) vs. Maryland — My fundamental bowl game theory is in play here. There will probably only be a couple hundred Maryland fans in attendance.

Rice (-3) vs. Western Michigan — Rice is going to hang 50+ on the Broncos.

Oregon (+3.5) vs. Oklahoma State — This should also be an entertaining game. I like the Ducks to win a close one.

Houston (-2.5) vs. Air Force — Another rematch of an early season game, Houston should be looking for a little revenge.

Pittsburgh (+3) vs. Oregon State — Were it not for Oregon State’s injuries, this might be a no-brainer the other way. I still don’t love Pitt that much.

Boston College (-3.5) vs. Vanderbilt — Just guessing here.

Kansas (-10.5) vs. Minnesota — This is going to be as ugly as Missouri-Northwestern. Kansas will score at will.

Georgia Tech (-4) vs. LSU — The Tigers are playing out the string.

Iowa (-3.5) vs. South Carolina — Iowa was another team playing very strong at the end of the season.

Nebraska (+2.5) vs. Clemson — The Tigers did well to make it to a bowl, but I don’t see them keeping this one close.

Georgia (-7.5) vs. Michigan State — I love only giving MSU 7.5 in this one. The Spartans got dominated against almost every good team it played this season.

USC (-10) vs. Penn State — Penn State is liable to make this a lot more interesting than a lot of people think, but winning by a couple of touchdowns isn’t a stretch for USC.

Cincinnati (-1.5) vs. Virginia Tech — Big East vs. the ACC? Who knows?

Mississippi (+5.5) vs. Texas Tech — I don’t think Texas Tech is likely to be as up for this one as the Rebels.

Kentucky (+2) vs. East Carolina — I’m not a big fan of the Pirates despite their C-USA title. Give me the SEC against C-USA almost any time.

Utah (+10.5) vs. Alabama — I’m in the minority on this one for sure, but I think Utah will keep this one interesting.

Buffalo (+4) vs. Connecticut — This will be almost a home game for the Bulls and they’ll upset the Huskies.

Ohio State (+9.5) vs. Texas — The Buckeyes are probably underrated and will be looking to salvage a disappointing season by their standards.

Tulsa (+2.5) vs. Ball State — I loved the Golden Hurricane before Brady Hoke left the Cardinals — now I really love them.

Oklahoma (+3.5) vs. Florida — Despite how much I hate the BCS, I appreciate that this could be a classic championship game. The difference in this game is likely to be the underrated Sooner defense in a high-scoring game.