Sportsfrog.com

1. Age
Teixeira: Entering age 29 season
Ramirez: Entering age 37 season
Let’s start with the argument I’m the most confused by: Teixeira is a huge risk because he’d require an 8 year deal. Sure, any deal that long has a lot of inherent risk. What I don’t understand is why he’s seen as riskier than Manny for 3 years when Manny, right now, is older than Teixeira would be in the last year of his deal. Granted, Manny showed no signs of slowing down last year (although I caution everyone to check out his BABIP, especially in Los Angeles) but it has to be coming. Maybe not for three more years, but that’s the gamble. Even factoring in a shorter commitment, betting on a 37 year old DH seems to have far more downside than betting on a 29 year old 1B.

2. Contract
Teixeira: ~$23MM over 8 years
Ramirez: ~$25MM over 3 years
Even if those numbers are a bit off, they’re essentially the same cost for the next 3 seasons at which point Ramirez rolls off. Unless Ramirez is a bust, his absence would mean a major hole in the lineup heading into 2012, one which could probably be filled quite well by a then 32 year old Teixeira.
(Both were offered arbitration by their teams so either would, in essence, cost the Yankees their 3rd round pick. Don’t quote me, but I believe if Teixeira is signed, Anaheim gets the 1st, Milwaukee the 2nd and Toronto the 3rd. If Manny is signed, Milwaukee gets the 1st, Los Angeles the 2nd and Toronto the 3rd. Usually losing 3 picks would make me cringe but the disaster draft of 2008 ensures that, at most, NY would only be down only a 3rd rounder. I can live with that.)

3. Defense
Teixeira: +24 at 1B, ranked 1st in the majors
Ramirez: -13 in LF, ranked 30th in the majors
Teixeira immediately improves a bad defensive infield in NY and allows Swisher to (presumably) move RF with Xavier Nady as the DH. Teixeira, beyond being a top 10 hitter, is an elite glove at 1B. Swisher, currently penciled in at 1B, is slightly below average there but above average in the corners. Given that Nady hasn’t ranked in the top half of RFs in +/- in any of the last 3 seasons, that’s improvement at two positions with one signing if everyone is properly utilized. Ramirez is somewhat problematic wherever he’s signed to play. If he wants to play the field, LF is immediately downgraded and, assuming Johnny Damon is shifted back to CF, the outfield goes back to being among the worst in the majors. If he’s signed as a DH, you lose the safety net of being able to keep Jorge Posada’s bat in the lineup even if his shoulder isn’t strong enough to catch every day (or at all).

4. Intangibles(!)
Teixeira: Whatever
Ramirez: Sigh
I’m in atleast the 98th percentile as far as not caring about what goes on when a player isn’t playing. A .350 OBP while not talking to the press, not being BFFs with teammates and generally acting like a massive jerk is better than a .345 OBP and a happy-go-lucky attitude. Until June of last year, I was one of the biggest defenders of Manny (being Manny). Who cares if he’s publicly talking about trades every other offseason, who cares if he sits out a couple of times per year with injuries New England reporters are skeptical of, he’s still one of the greatest hitters of our generation. I’d take him on my team any day. Then he pushed a team employee for not getting him enough tickets. Then he reportedly tanked an at-bat against Mariano Rivera to send a message to the front office. Then he reportedly threatened to sit out many more games with a bad knee if he wasn’t traded out of Boston. I don’t put too much weight on the last one given that his .347/.473/.587 line (with only two missed games) during his last month with the Red Sox before being traded. The first one is tough to defend period; the second one is close to unforgivable from a baseball standpoint. 3 pitches, all strikes, and the bat never left Manny’s shoulder. Maybe it was intentional, maybe it wasn’t, I certainly can’t prove it either way, but I know I don’t feel like worrying about whether Manny is going to show up for a key game after some perceived (or probably actual) public slight from Hank. I don’t think the same would be a concern I’d have about Teixeira. Call it an educated guess.

5. Immediate AL East Concerns
Teixeira: None
Ramirez: Opens the door to Teixeira in Boston
This is an aspect I haven’t seen enough written about. If NY signs Teixeira, Boston’s offense likely goes into 2009 unchanged because they aren’t in on Manny. If NY signs Manny, their offense is certainly improved for 2008, but there’s the risk that Boston signs Teixeira and their gains offset NY’s. Using WARP3, which I don’t love but factors in defense so it works well enough for now, Teixeira was worth 10.8 games over a replacement player in 2008. Assuming Matsui is the player losing time in either signing (Swisher to RF, Nady to DH, Matsui to bench) and prorating his WARP3 to match Teixeira’s PAs, NY gains 5.5 wins in the exchange. Beyond that, Boston doesn’t gain the 2.3 wins that going from Teixeira to (prorated) Lowell would give them so the swing between the two teams is really almost 8 games. The gain from Manny over Matsui is the same as Teixeira, albeit with some very sketchy defensive numbers factoring in, but partially offset by Teixeira signing with Boston (to around a net of 3 wins gained). Obviously none of this is exact and doesn’t consider the variance between 2008 actuals and 2009 projections (the most drastic of which would probably be regression for Lowell), but it’s a pretty decent estimate. Basically, we could expect around a 5 game swing in the standings between Teixeira signing with NY rather than Manny signing with NY and Teixeira signing with Boston. Pretty significant.

6. Trickle Down AL East Concerns
Teixeira: None
Ramirez: Boston gains roster flexibility with the signing of Teixeira
Yes, I realize Tampa Bay won the AL East last season, but Tampa Bay doesn’t build their roster the same way as NY and Boston and doesn’t compete directly with them for free agents. If Boston signs Teixeira and is able to unload Lowell on someone else, their payroll (assuming Schilling’s spot is filled with a pre-arbitration pitcher) won’t be that drastically changed. With Teixeira locked up for 8 years, Youkilis now manning 3B and Ortiz presumably not going anywhere (due to his name and 10-5 rights), Boston immediately gains a huge trade chip in AA 1B Lars Anderson. Likely to be in the top 25 of most prospect lists, Anderson now becomes a man without a major league slot and one whose value to Boston goes from what he could be in the future to what he can be exchanged for right now, much like Matt LaPorta last year in Milwaukee. Using the LaPorta / CC Sabathia deal as a baseline, pairing Anderson with a secondary minor league arm and high upside, low probability A ball prospect gives Boston a package good enough to acquire whichever available player they prefer at the trade deadline. Any injury or flop in the lineup or rotation could be filled without subtracting from their major league roster. I won’t even begin to speculate who could be available later this year (beyond Peavy, although San Diego is a bad match), but its certainly plausible that the addition of Teixeira could affect the 2009 AL East race both immediately then again halfway through the season.

7. My Happiness as a Fan
Teixeira: I like a lot
Ramirez: I don’t like very much
If everything I’ve listed were being weighted this only gets like 3% but I’m sick of the Kevin Browns and Gary Sheffields and all the ex-Yankees I really didn’t enjoy rooting for. Yeah, Manny would smile a lot most of the time, but it just seems phonier now and I don’t feel like dealing with all the NY tabloid drama he’d invariably create. There is something to be said for having a likeable team to follow. It’s secondary to having a good team, but Manny doesn’t make them better than Teixeira anyway so it is a factor. Besides, I think my version of hell, baseball and otherwise, would be Jonathan Papelbon striking out a pinstriped Manny to finish off another 3 games to none comeback in the ALCS.

8. Boston Fans
Teixeira: They seem to really like
Ramirez: Opinions Vary
Its always fun to stick it to Boston fans so stealing their big offseason acquisition, one who seemed to be destined to sign there, would be fun. If we have to listen to people complain that we signed two free agent pitchers (for less than the amount coming off the 2008 payroll), let’s give everyone something to really complain about. Besides, the Red Sox organization deserves karmic revenge for the tactics they used to cost Teixeira a spot in the first round coming out of high school. What would be better (or worse) than having him in pinstripes for 2009?