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Via (and thanks to all-time Swamper) Bensell.

I won’t be the first person to ever call his Kentucky Derby contender preview “The Derby Dozen” as Steve Haskin has a weekly column in the Blood-Horse called “Haskin’s Derby Dozen” so tip of the hat to him, but here is my intial Top Twelve. I plan on updating the list each week, and beginning with next week’s post I’m going to go a bit more in depth on two contenders as well. Odds quoted are from the first Kentucky Futures Derby Pool’s morning line.

1. Old Fashioned (10-1) – This son of Unbridled’s Song is the only horse in my Top 12 that has a Beyer Speed Figure in triple digits at a distance of a mile of more, clocking an even 100 in his win in the Remsen Stakes last November going 1 1/8 miles. He is trained by Larry Jones, who has run second in each of the past 2 Derbys with Hard Spun and ill-fated Eight Belles. Jones is very high on this colt, saying he is further along at this point in the year than any of his previous contenders.

2. Capt. Candyman Can (10-1) – This gelded son of Candy Ride had a win and a third over the Churchill Downs track last fall in a pair of graded stakes. He is trained by Carl Nafgzer’s longtime assitant Ian Wilkes, who has just started to branch out on his own the past few years as Carl has scaled back his operation. Wilkes was a part of the Street Sense team, so he knows how to get a horse peaking on the First Saturday in May. I like the fact this horribly named gelding made his first start off the winter layoff in the 7 furlong Hutchenson Stakes at Gulfstream Park, which he won by a length and a half with a nice 101 Beyer. Wilkes has opted to take the old school route of gradually lengthening his race distances, leading up to the challenge of the 1 1/4 Derby. I think more horses would benefit if they were prepped in this manner.

3. Midshipman (12-1) – The Breeders Cup Juvenile winner has been in Dubai since December as he prepares for a Derby run with his Godolphin stablemates. The Dubai-Derby prep route has not produced a finish better than sixth place in the 5 previous attempts (China Visit in 2000), but this group of runners for trainer Saeed bin Suroor have a much better 2 year old base, not to mention pedigrees. Another son of Unbridled’s Song, the biggest question in my mind is how he takes to the dirt since he has never raced outside of the synthetic Cailfornia tracks. The track at Nad al Sheba plays fairly similar to Churchill Downs, so his preps in the desert should do him good.

4. Freison Fire (12-1) – This A.P. Indy colt has won both his starts this year, 2 Grade IIIs at the Fair Grounds, and is 2 of 3 since trainer Larry Jones put blinkers on him. Both races were visually impressive and earned him Beyer figures of 96 & 93. Jones has said the light has finally come on for this colt and he bred to get the distance.

5. Pioneerof the Nile (20-1) – Since moving to Bob Baffert’s barn this son of Empire Maker has won 2 Graded Stakes, including the Grade I CashCall (ne Hollywood) Futurity last December. He will relish the added distance, but prepping out West in a concern as that means he will not have a race on anything other than a synthetic track (although he did start twice on the grass when as a juvenile). If any trainer can do it Baffert can, but there are question marks.

6. Hello Broadway (50-1) – Barclay Tagg, of Funny Cide fame, is the trainer of this son of Broken Vow. Making his first start since early November Hello Broadway ran a good second to the #2 horse on this list. Tagg is another member of the old school of training, and I like that each race will be a bit further until May. He’s got the breeding for the Derby distance and his trainer has been in the Winner’s Circle before; this half brother to Nobiz Like Showbiz is one to watch.

7. Desert Party (5-2 as part of the all others field) – The second Goldolphin entry on this list, this son of Street Cry won the UAE 2000 Guineas by 4 1/2 lengths earlier today. A $2.1 million purchase before he had made a start as a 2 year old, he was trained by Eoin Harty for Darley Stables in the U.S. last year before being transfered to bin Suroor in Dubai this winter. He has now beaten Vineyard Haven (see #10 below) twice in 3 starts (splitting a pair of meetings at Saratoga last fall), and has to be considered a big threat if the Godolphin horses come in force.

8. Patena (20-1) – IEAH Stables and Rick Dutrow just purchased a majority interest in this colt after he ran 2nd to Friesan Fire in the Lecomte Stakes at the Fair Grounds. Bred for distance, this son of Seeking the Gold has Dutrow & company over the moon since the Lecomte was his first start on a dirt track and he easily posted a career best Beyer figure. Dutrow may not be likable, but he proved last year he knows how to at least win the Derby.

9. Stardom Bound (12-1) – The lone filly one the list, she was purchased by IEAH Stables (of Big Brown fame) at auction last November after winning the Breeders Cup Juvenile Filly for $5.7 million. Now trained by Bobby Frankel, there is a strong chance of her making her next stop in the Santa Anita Derby and bypassing the Santa Anita Oaks altogether. Her Beyer numbers are a little below the boys, but her wins have been so easy she hasn’t been extended yet so I take the numbers with a grain of salt.

10. Vineyard Haven (12-1) – This son of Lido Palace was my #2 horse until today’s fourth place finish in the UAE 2000 Guineas. It was his first start since early October, and for a new trainer halfway around the world at that, so I’m going to throw this race out if he responds well later in the Dubai Festival of Racing and ships in. Saeed bin Suroor said before the race Vineyard wasn’t ready for a top effort going into the race, but it was a disappontment none the less. Bobby Frankel owned and trained his colt last season, but sold him to Goldolphin for a rumored $12 million after his Champagne Stakes win last fall.

11. Poltergeist (5-2 – field) – This so of Tapit was an impressive winner in an allowance/optional claiming race at Oaklawn Park last out. Trained by Donnie Von Hemel he is starting Monday in the Southwest Stakes at the Arkansas track. If he can handle the step up in class, this colt will be an interesting one to follow the rest of the spring as Hot Springs seems to have turned into a very solid Derby Pipeline.

12. Papa Clem (20-1) – This son of back-to-back Leading Sire Smart Strike (Curlin’s papa) ran a strong 2nd to Pioneerof the Nile in the Robert B. Lewis at Santa Anita in his stakes debut last out, pressing the pace and holding on well. He may head for the Louisiana Derby next to get not only dirt exeprience, but graded earings as well.

Four knocking on the door: Giant Oak, I Want Revenge, Theregoesjojo and Shafted.