Sportsfrog.com

This is the first Royals season in quite some time that the team hasn’t unveiled a marketing campaign centered around a catchphrase of some sort. Maybe that’s a sign that the marketing department actually expects this team to be good.

Of course, “good” is relative, but based on how the Royals played in September last season, a .500 season isn’t necessarily out of the question. To get there, they’re going to have to overcome some very obvious shortcomings at a few positions, and hope like hell that the young guns don’t stink up the joint. But when you’re playing in a division that’s suddenly gone from first-to-worst, the Royals can dare to dream.

C: Well, here’s one of the shortcomings, and it’s an obvious one. John Buck and Miguel Olivo are essentially the same player. Both are absolutely brutal against righthanders and are much better against lefties. Manager Trey Hillman took a bit of an unconventional step of DHing Olivo against lefties at times last year while Buck caught, to maximize Olivo’s .315/.526 line against southpaws. Overall, Olivo is slightly the lesser of the two evils as his SLG makes up for the edge that Buck has in OBP. However, if Buck can get his average in the .260 range, his walk rate gives him a clear edge over Olivo.

1B: If the Royals could put one of these guys behind the plate, I’d be very happy. But neither of them are any good defensively at first–save for Ross Gload, but he’s not an upgrade–so that would work out horribly. Mike Jacobs is nice when you look at his homer total from 2008, but then you look at everything else and he’s not nice. He can’t hit, he can’t get on base, and he can’t play the field worth a lick. And his decency only comes against righthanded pitchers. Oh boy. Ryan Shealy would seem to be a great platoon partner, but for some reason, his career splits against lefties (despite being a righthanded hitter) are .179/.263/.298, and it’s almost inevitable that Shealy will be released. I’d be content if they let Kila Ka’aihue play at first because his walk rate would overcome any average deficiencies that he’d have in his first full season in the big leagues, but that’s not going to happen.

2B: The best case scenario for the position is that Mark Teahen wins the starting second base job despite it being his third position in three years and the fact that starting second basemen over 6 feet are like blue moons and Teahen is 6-3. (I’m not going to mention the fact that Teahen’s BA dropped 30 points last year, while his walk rate declined slightly) The second best case scenario is that the Royals start Alberto Callaspo and he hits his expected .290/.360 with no power and speed and range and Teahen is a super-utility player. The worst case scenario is that Willie Bumquist–he of the 2 year $3 million deal–starts, and keeping the incredible Tony Pena Jr. on the roster as the backup middle infielder. Oh how I wish for options one or two.

3B: The position is set with Alex Gordon, it’s just a matter of what Gordon will do. If he can sustain the walk rate spike he showed last year, and have an equal average spike, the Royals are looking at a .282/.373/.450 player without an increase in power. Realistically, the Royals can expect a .270/.360/.480 season from Gordon, with hopefully 20+ homeruns. Anything less than that, and .500 is not a real possibility.

SS: Thank you Mike Aviles. So what if last year was his breakout age 27 season. I don’t care. He could have hit .250/.300/.375 and it would have been a godsend after the year that Tony Pena Jr. was having. Aviles is likely to regress in 2009, which is expected, as he doesn’t really walk much and he’s theoretically reached his ceiling. Because of that poor walk rate, a drastic drop in BA is going to hurt a bunch, so while a .270 AVG may look nice, the borderline .300 OBP won’t. As for TPJ, he got Lasik surgery and says that his depth perception is back. In winter ball, TPJ posted a .275/.347 line, walking 18 times, or two more THAN THE LAST TWO SEASONS IN KANSAS CITY COMBINED.

OF: David DeJesus is solidly entrenched in LF after his best season in what was his age 28 year. DeJesus is a great CF if there are two solid defensive outfielders around him. He covers the ground he’s supposed to, no more, but he got exposed with Teahen and Jose Guillen in the corners. But while the bat plays well in CF, it’s not ideal for a corner OF. Guillen is back, supposedly in the “best shape of his life,” but he’s a 33 year old malcontent who is a hacker. Already he’s had a sore back and shoulder, and removed an ingrown toenail himself, probably because he wanted an excuse to miss some conditioning work. Guillen isn’t necessarily a horrible option if he can be buried in the 7 or 8 spot in a good lineup. However, he’s cast as the cleanup hitter for the Royals with a PECOTA projection of .271/.313/.430. Yikes. In an effort to improve the OF defense, the Royals got Coco Crisp for the moderate price of Ramon Ramirez. Crisp will have to shade a bit towards right to compensate for Guillen’s laziness, and actually may cause Guillen to become even more complacent in the field because he’ll have less ground to cover. Offensively, Crisp slots in as the the team’s leadoff hitter and will be playing for an $8 million club option in 2010.

DH: Billy Butler has a stranglehold on the spot if he can show the sustained power that he hasn’t had in the big leagues yet. Butler has hit when he’s been in Kansas City, it’s just that there’s been too many singles (and GIDPs) for a guy who’s 6-1 240. If Butler’s PECOTA of .291/.352/.457 comes true in 2009, Hillman will be crazy not to have moved him into the cleanup spot.

PROJECTED LINEUP:
CF Crisp
SS Aviles
LF DeJesus
RF Guillen
1B Jacobs
DH Butler
3B Gordon
C Olivo
2B Teahen/Callaspo/Bumquist

With the exception of DeJesus, the top five of the order may have the worst combined OBP in the league.

SP: Gil Meche and Zack Greinke are solidly entrenched as the team’s top two starters. Meche has been dependable over the last two seasons and has been the closest thing to an ace for the Royals since the Kevin Appier Era. While Meche will have the “ace” and no. 1 starter designation for as long as he keeps pitching well, Greinke surpassed him last year, posting a 1.28 WHIP and 3.47 ERA with 183 Ks in 202 IP. Greinke’s just 25, so the 80 inning increase is a bit of a concern despite the clean mechanics (and not even taking into account Greinke’s history of mental illness). But after Meche and Greinke, the rotation gets messy. One spot seemingly is reserved for Horacio Ramirez because of the contract that the Royals gave him and Hillman and Moore’s insistence that there has to be a lefty in the rotation. Ramirez did pitch well for the Royals last year before he was traded to the White Sox, but that was out of the bullpen. Add in Ramirez’s history of shoulder problems, and I have severe doubts that this will go well. That leaves two rotation spots between Brian Bannister, Kyle Davies and Luke Hochevar. Based on 2008, Davies and Hochevar have to be considered the favorites, especially considering Hochevar’s #1 pick status. Bannister does have options left, and his stuff doesn’t translate well to the bullpen except in a long relief role.

RP: The closer position is set with Joakim Soria. Soria was absolutely filthy last season, and there’s no reason to expect anything different this year unless he has a shoulder issue. His velocity doesn’t wow, as he only hits 92 or so on the radar gun, but he’s got a dizzying array of pitches, and he struck out 66 in 67 IP in 2008. The rest of the pen is pretty unsettled because the teams second and third best relievers–Ramirez and Leo Nunez–were dealt in the offseason. In their place is Kyle Farnsworth, whom Dayton Moore signed to a ridiculous two year deal, and Ron Mahay, who pitched solidly to both right and lefthanded hitters in 2008. The sleeper in the bullpen is Robinson Tejeda, who pitched well in a mop-up role after being acquired off of waivers from Texas. The early reports out of camp say that Tejeda is throwing exceptionally well, and if he truly can harness his 95 MPH fastball and a second pitch, he could become the team’s second best reliever.

SP: Meche
SP: Greinke
SP: Davies
SP: Ramirez
SP: Hochevar

CP: Soria
RP: Farnsworth
RP: Mahay
RP: Tejeda
RP: Waechter
RP: Peralta
RP: Gobble

In 100 words or less: .500 is realistic, but only if Butler and Gordon hit to their projections, Mike Jacobs smashes 30 HR to make up for his crappy OBP and the Royals can get some production out of 2B. Kyle Davies needs to pitch like he did in September, Luke Hochevar takes an important step forward and the team can seamlessly replace Ramirez and Nunez as the bridge to Soria. More than likely, all of those factors don’t come together and the Royals win 75 games.