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The 56th annual ACC Men’s Basketball Tournament will be getting underway this Thursday at the Georgia Dome in Atlanta and run all the way through the championship game on Sunday. Based on the finishes of the teams in the league, here is how things are shaped up as to who gets in the tournament.

Locked in: North Carolina, Wake Forest, Duke, Florida State, Clemson.
Likely in: Boston College.
Needs work or else NIT: Maryland, Virginia Tech, Miami.
Definitely NIT unless win the tourney: NC State.

Thursday opening round:
Game 1 – #8 Virginia Tech vs #9 Miami – what is considered to be the bubble-buster game, Virginia Tech took the lone meeting 88-83 in OT. Up until the Duke meeting on February 28, coach Seth Greenberg was making a strong case to put the Hokies in the NCAA Tournament this year when they were 17-10. Since then, they lost to Duke, UNC, and Florida State, all ranked teams, to finish 7-9 in the conference in the three-way tie for seventh, with the Hurricanes being one of the teams. After making the dance last season, Miami was expected to finish in the top four of the league and another return. Miami has turned out to be the most disappointing team in the ACC this season, losing three games in the midpoint of the season in overtime and held UNC very tough at Coral Gables. The winner gets the Tar Heels, who is 1-0 vs VT and 2-0 vs Miami.
Winner: Virginia Tech 70-62.

Game 2 – #5 Clemson vs #12 Georgia Tech – Clemson easily handled the Jackets in both their meetings this season; however, Clemson is playing like the Clemson we’ve seen in recent years. In order to get back to the ACC Championship game, they need to win three games (which could include beating UNC in the semis on Saturday). Clemson is playing for a top four regional seed and three wins could give them one of the top three seeds. Georgia Tech is playing for a Friday meeting with Florida State. Interesting history against Clemson – since the league expanded to 12 teams in 2005, two of the previous three 5 vs 12 games have been won by the 12-seed (Wake Forest beat Miami in 2006 and actually advanced all the way to the semifinals; Miami knocked off Maryland in 2007 and took BC to overtime in the quarters before falling).
Winner: Clemson 88-70.

Game 3 – #7 Maryland vs #10 NC State – The question is which Maryland team will show up – the one where they knocked off UNC in OT, or the one that folded against UVa to close the season. Maryland won by 11 at Raleigh a couple of weeks ago behind an outstanding performance by Greivis Vasquez, but laid an egg against favored Wake and underdog Virginia. NC State hasn’t really been in any contests this year that they’ve lost (only one of their games in the league were by four points or less and that was in OT). However, the Wolfpack over the years going back to the Sendek era have been a strong show in the ACC Tournament (making the finals four times in the last 11 years). The last time they were a 10-seed, they won three games two seasons ago and gave it all they could against the Tar Heels in the finals. Look for Sidney to wear that red jacket and the jacket gets sent to the cleaners for at least a couple of days. Also, look for the match-up between Vasquez and Courtney Fells with the upper hand being the decisive factor. Winner gets Wake Forest on Friday.
Winner: NC State 64-61.

Game 4 – #6 Boston College vs #11 Virginia – The Eagles played Jekyll and Hyde when the league season began – won at #1 UNC, then dropped four straight , including Harvard. BC won the lone meeting at Charlottesville behind 20 points each from Tyrese Rice and Rakim Sanders. With a win here, the Eagles are assured of being in the Field of 65. A loss here, they’ll be watching on Sunday to see if they do get in. Virginia is basically playing for pride and rebuilding for next season.
Winner: Boston College 75-70.

The future potential games:

Quarterfinals: Clemson vs Florida State – The ‘Noles swept the Tigers this season, including coming back from 19 down with 14:00 to play at Littlejohn in the first meeting. The game started the atypical Clemson snowball after such a great start to the season. It’s always tough to beat a team three times in a season, but not this time. FSU will move on to the semis to play Carolina because of their defense.

Quarterfinals: Boston College vs Duke – BC won the earlier meeting at Conte. Duke usually has problems playing in domes. For a team that shoots primarily outside jumpers, this may be an issue for the Devils. Duke looked to be playing for a bye after the BC loss, but went on a tear before losing to UNC on Sunday. Duke will avenge this loss behind the power of Kyle Singler and will advance to Saturday.

Semifinals: Florida State vs North Carolina – Should they meet, FSU will have one thing on their mind – revenge. After Ty Lawson’s running jumper at the buzzer, FSU had been playing great themselves (7-3 in their last 10). Carolina took the #1 seed for the third consecutive season and has won the previous two tournament titles. The only thing Carolina has to play for here is the tourney title. This is also Tyler Hansbrough’s last shot at the National Championship and likely they will start their run in Greensboro next Thursday. So, it’s conceivable if the Tar Heels do not win this game in an effort to give Hansbrough an extra day of rest. I really believe this game is going to be just as good as the prior meeting and Carolina will not give up. It’s just that FSU will be playing much better in this game. FSU will win this one close and move on to their first-ever ACC Tournament Final.

Semifinals: Wake Forest vs Duke – These two Tobacco Road foes played two of the best league games this year, each winning on their home turf. This game will mean more than a trip to Sunday. Right now, Duke is a low 2-seed while Wake is a mid 3. The winner of this game will take the regional 2-seed and more importantly get to play their first and second round games in Greensboro next week, while the loser will likely be a 3-seed and travel (if it’s Wake, it’s likely Miami; if it’s Duke, it’s either Philly or Miami, but odds are with UConn and Villanova likely there unless Nova blows in the Big East, Duke should head to South Beach). This game will be decided by Jeff Teague’s play on the floor.

Finals: Florida State vs Wake Forest – Wake cruised to a 25-point win at the Joel back in January. Both of these teams have played consistent in the second half of the season, but I think Wake is just too much for FSU. This will be a great feel-good moment for the Deacons if they win this for their late coach, Skip Prosser. Having said that, Wake Forest will be winning their first ACC Championship Title since the Tim Duncan era in 1996.