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This is a huge weekend for Kentucky Derby preps – first the Derby Watch list, with last week’s rankings and probable next start after the name, then a preview of this week’s races:

1. Old Fashioned (1- Rebel Stakes 3/14)
2. Pioneerof the Nile (2- San Felipe Stakes 3/14)
3. Friesan Fire (3- Louisiana Derby 3/14)
4. Desert Party (4- UAE Derby 3/28)
5. I Want Revenge (15- Wood Memorial 4/4)
6. Hello Broadway (5- Tampa Bay Derby 3/14)
7. Quality Road (6- Florida Derby 3/28)
8. The Pamplemousse (10- Santa Anita Derby 4/4)
9. Patena (7- Louisiana Derby 3/14)
10. Papa Clem (12- Louisiana Derby 3/14)
11. Dunkirk (17- Florida Derby 3/28)
12. Giant Oak (11- Louisiana Derby 3/14)
13. Beethoven (13- Florida Derby 3/28)
14. Theregoesjojo (14- Florida Derby 3/28)
15. Imperial Council (9- Wood Memorial 4/4)
16. Flying Pegasus (16- Louisiana Derby 3/14)
17. Chocolate Candy (NR- Santa Anita Derby 3/28)
18. West Side Bernie (NR- Lanes End Stakes 3/21)
19. Rachel Alexandra (NR- Fairgrounds Oaks 3/14)
20. Stardom Bound (8- Ashland Stakes 4/4 or Santa Anita Derby 3/28)

Knocking on the Door: Capt. Candyman Can, General Quarters, Mr Hot Stuff, Ryehill Dancer, and Take the Points

Preview time – first up the Louisiana Derby:

1. Free Country (Desourmeaux) 12-1
2. Soul Warrior (Bridgmohan) 20-1
3. Patena (Albarado) 7-2
4. Terrain (Leparoux) 10-1
5. Flying Pegasus (Velazquez) 8-1
6. Giant Oak (Graham) 4-1
7. Uno Mas (Hernandez Jr) 12-1
8. Papa Clem (Bejarano) 8-1
9. Friesan Fire (Saez) 5-2
10. Nowhere to Hide (Lanerie) 15-1

With fully a quarter of my Top Twenty list in the field, the rankings should get a real shake up next week. Even though my rankings don’t have the finish in this order, I’m trying to get tomorrow right in these predictions. I think Patena wins it, as Dutrow will have him cranked in the first race out his stable. Friesan Fire will run a good race, but Larry Jones will not have him at the top of his game. Giant Oak will find trouble again, while California shipper Papa Clem claims the place in his first race on dirt.

Win – Patena
Place – Papa Clem
Show – Friesan Fire

Tampa Bay Derby:

1. Perfect Bull (Butler) 30-1
2. Musket Man (Centeno) 8-1
3. Nowhere to Hide (Garcia) 5-1
4. Hello Broadway (Coa) 3-1
5. Warrior’s Reward (Montalvo) 12-1
6. Sumo (Rose) 6-1
7. Join in the Dance (Trujillo) 12-1
8. General Quarters (Lopez) 4-1
9. Bear’s Rocket (Allen Jr) 8-1
10. Justdontcallmejeri (Rios) 12-1
11. Top Seed (Maragh) 20-1

Hello Broadway ships into Tampa from Gulfstream Park and avoids most of the big Florida players here. If he doesn’t win this, Tagg may well take him off the Derby Trail. Ian Wilkes’ second Derby contender Warrior’s Reward seems like the strongest challenger, even with the Tampa-based General Quarters coming off a win in the local prep race (Sam Davis Stakes) last out.

Win: Hello Broadway
Place: Warrior’s Reward
Show: General Quarters

San Felipe Stakes:

1. He’s Really Big (Gryder) 30-1
2. Pioneerof the Nile (Gomez) 2-5
3. Feisty Suances (Flores) 10-1
4. Shafted (Rosario) 8-1
5. Jeranimo (Blanc) 20-1
6. Kelly Leak (Espinoza) 6-1
7. New Bay (Talamo) 8-1

I see no one besting Pioneerof the Nile here. Shafted has the best chance for an upset in my opinion, but he is just as likely to run off the board as to running a big race.

Win: Pioneerof the Nile
Place: Shafted
Show:Kelly Leak

Rebel Stakes:

1. Old Fashioned (Dominguez) 7-5
2. Hamazing Destiny (Thompson) 5-1
3. Poltergeist (Hamilton) 15-1
4. Pointing Home (Garcia) 15-1
5. Wise Kid (Caraballo) 9-2
6. His Greatness (Sterling Jr) 12-1
7. Captain Cherokee (Quinonez) 8-1
8. Silver City (Court) 4-1
9. Win Willy (Berry) 20-1

Old Fashioned was not worked much before his win in the Southwest Stakes last out when he made it 3 straight wins to start his career, but he ran a better than the speed figure would indicate. I see a marked improvement from him, resulting in an easy win. Poltergeist is better than his last out and Silver City seems to be more suited to sprinting, but they are better than most of the field.

Win: Old Fashioned
Place: Poltergeist
Show: Silver City