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My homework assignment was a preview of coming attractions in the Midwest bracket. Given that there are plenty of such previews from people far more knowledgeable about the ins and outs of these match-ups than I am, I implore you to read their stuff for actual informed insight. My thoughts are more the off-the-top-of-my-head impressions, your mileage may indeed vary.

I am not buying Louisville as the #1 overall seed in the tournament. They are a really good team, don’t get me wrong, but they benefited from some very favorable scheduling in the Big East, and missing UConn and Pitt in the Big East tournament. I simply am having a hard time forgetting the way they flat quit in losing by 33 at Notre Dame earlier this year. That feels like a hidden flaw to me that when things get tough in the tournament, they won’t be ready to meet the moment. Perhaps that isn’t fair, but there it is. That said, here’s what I see going down:

First round:

L’ville/Morehead State—Nice name, as always, Morehead, and something all males can support (no matter which team you hit for, I would suppose), but this will not be the game where a 16 finally breaks through against a 1.

Ohio State/Siena—I am still trying to figure out who at Siena pissed off a committee member (L’ville too, for that matter) to have to play in essence a pure home game against the Buckeyes in Dayton. Push tOSU through to the round of 32.

Utah/Arizona—As near as I can tell from the chattering heads, most think this is Arizona, maligned but in the tournament as a 12-seed advancing. Here’s the thing, though. Utah is really good, and Arizona is deeply flawed. Their losing five of their last six wasn’t by accident. Utah moves on.

Wake Forest/Cleveland State—Wake went from a number one overall team in the country in early January to gimping it up into March. A four seed was their punishment. They still have a really nice collection of premiere talent, and point guard play, so much at a premium in March, will be a clear strength of theirs. Wake through to the round of 32.

West Virginia/Dayton—Dayton had a nice year, and is a good team, but West Virginia appears to be peaking and playing a style of ball that Bob Huggins is very pleased with. And when Huggins is pleased, it is generally bad for the opponent. Move the 6 seed forward.

Kansas/N. Dakota State—Yes Kansas has had some issues with 14-seeds in the past. That bears on this game exactly zero. Defending champs move on.

Boston College/USC—I am probably too swayed by what just happened in the Pac 10 tournament, but I like USC to move on here. On some level, I am sure I am disrespecting Boston College. If they need for that motivation, they are beyond help anyway.

Michigan State/Robert Morris—Even if the rest of the Morris clan shows up, they are not hanging with the 2-seed.

Second round (projected):

L’ville/Ohio State—Damn dangerous game for the Cardinals. Ohio State is young but has NBA quality talent. The weird near-home court factor. I think Louisville moves on, but the committee did their alleged #1 overall seed no favors here.

Utah/Wake Forest—The second life of the NCAA tournament continues to invigorate the Deacons. Utah bows out, just glad it wasn’t to Kentucky this time around.

West Virginia/Kansas—A great end of the season run for a young and reloaded Kansas team comes to an end against the Moutaineers, who view their run through the Midwest a FAR easier task than what they just had to endure in the Big East tournament.

Michigan State/USC—Okay, this is perhaps anti-Big 10 bias. Or maybe it is the memory fresh on this Memphis Tigers fans mind of the colossal beatdown Memphis laid on the Spartans last year in the Sweet 16, but I think Michigan State is thought of a little too highly, in part because of Izzo. And I think they go down a round earlier this year than a year ago. USC moves on.

Sweet sixteen (shaky projection):

Louisville/Wake Forest—Louisville’s reward for surviving against a nasty round of 32 opponent playing a glorified home game? A “4″ seed that has beaten a 1 and a 2 seed earlier this year, and spent time atop the polls themselves. And has a team well-suited to dealing with Louisville’s pressure defense. The one seed is done, Wake moves on to the Elite Eight.

West Virginia/USC—West Virginia, having just dispatched Pitt a few weeks prior, is less than impressed with what USC brings to Indy, and easily lays waste to the Pac 10 tourney champ to secure Huggins his first elite eight bid in a long time.

Regional Final (hazy shade of projected):

Wake Forest/West Virginia—The Moutaineers, expecting to re-match against the Cardinals, instead draw a Wake Forest team fully having rediscovered its early January mojo. Huggins gets a key technical during a Wake second half run that furthers the Wake momentum, and the ACC has a Final Four team as the four seed from this bracket moves on.

Bonus random observation from another bracket:

Should Memphis get to the Sweet 16 and draw the third seeded Missouri Tigers, I don’t see Memphis surviving that clash. I think the Memphis team is indeed a worthy and strong tournament entrant this year, and earned their two seed. I also know that Missouri is coached by Mike Anderson, who, when he was at UAB, coached the last C-USA team to beat Memphis, some 60 conference games ago now. The style of ball that Missouri plays is well suited to take Memphis out of its strength, which is ferocious half-court defense. Missouri will force the issue, and make it just enough of a running game that, if they face Memphis, will get Missouri to the regional finals.