There are many mock drafts, and the efforts from random individuals can be as interesting (and informed, in many ways) as those from the chattering classes. That said, swamp all-timer timgod99 has put one together and it is a really good read. I have published it in its entirety below. Enjoy. I do wish I could say he is off-base on guessing Andre Smith to the Bengals, but, the murmuring out of Cincy’s camp is that at least a few in the war room like him. Because he’s just the kind of hard-working character guy with no flags that they need…
ROUND ONE
1 Detroit — Jason Smith, Baylor — Stafford is too much of a risk to take here. The Lions have many holes to fill and would be wise to build up their line before getting their “QB of the Future killed. Especially when the 2010 Quarterback Class (Colt McCoy, Sam Bradford, Dan LeFevour, Ryan Mallet) is much, much better than this years. And let’s face it, Detroit will have another top pick in 2010. Maybe not #1 overall, but close.
2 St. Louis — Eugene Monroe, Virginia — The Rams just let Orlando Pace go and need his heir apparent. They’d be tempted by Aaron Curry from Wake Forrest, seeing as he is the best player on the board and fills a need, not to mention that new head coach Steve Spagnyolo is a defensive guy, but after going defense last year I think they fill a need on offense here.
3 Kansas City — Aaron Curry, Wake Forrest — The Chiefs offense seems to be in good hands as it stands now, since the acquisition of Matt Cassel fills the teams need for a franchise QB. They could use help on the offensive line, but with the two top tackles going they won’t reach for another here. This is all based on the team not cutting or trading RB Larry Johnson or TE Tony Gonzalez, both of which are possibilities between now and draft day. Curry will start day one for new coach Todd Haley as he tries to turn around a defense that ranked 31st in yards per game (393.2), 29th in points allowed (440) and dead last in sacks (10).
4 Seattle — BJ Raji, Boston College — The signing of TJ Houshmenzadeh and the trade for Cory Redding the Seahawks tried to fill two of their biggest holes from 2008. How successful they are, only time will tell. But both moves did change the way Seattle will approach this year’s draft. Before signing Housh this pick was generally thought of as the “Michael Crabtree” spot. But now it looks as though that won’t be the case. The biggest needs on this team are at running back and in the secondary. Unfortunately this is not the year to land a stud at either position this early, so Seattle will settle for the best player on the board in Raji, who will help solidify a defense that allowed nearly 120 yards per game in 2008 against the run.
5 Cleveland — Brian Orakpo, Texas — Cleveland could go any number of different ways with this pick, from drafting Michael Crabtree if the trade Braylon Edwards, to trading out of the pick or drafting the best defensive player available. I think they stick here and take Orakpo to help strengthen their defense. Orakpo seems to be able to play either DE or OLB in the 3-4 scheme, even though there is some debate as to which he’ll be better at. No matter which position he ends up playing, though, he’ll be an improvement on what was there before him.
6 Cincinnati — Andre Smith, Alabama — While some of the post season antics have not helped Smith’s draft stock, it is still hard to ignore the talent and capability of a 20 year old who once was viewed as not only the top tackle in this draft, but most likely the top player. A three year starter at Alabama, Smith showed the ability to play at a high level at a top program, which should help him translate into a good tackle in the pros. His suspension from the Sugar Bowl and decision to leave the Combine without working out show that he was not making good decisions, but that doesn’t mean he is not a good player. There is room for improvement, as there always is, but the talent is there. Cincinnati needs help at the tackle position and will be hard pressed to pass up on Smith here.
7 Oakland — Michael Crabtree, Texas Tech — With 2007 first overall pick JaMarcus Russell showing signs of improvement and 2008 top ten pick Darren McFadden getting healthy after an injury plagued, inproductive rookie season, it only seems fitting that Al Davis will get a WR to go along with those two and form a “Big 3″ by the Bay. Crabtree showed rare abilities for a college reciever, making many a corner look silly. He hasn’t been able to run this offseason because of a stress fracture in his foot, but there is ebough tape on Crabtree to show he is an elite reciever with talent that you don’t find everyday.
8 Jacksonville — Vontae Davis, Illinois — There has been a lot of talk recently that Jacksonville is taking a good, long look at USC QB Mark Sanchez. I don’t buy it. I think it’s all a smole screen. If you are interested in a player, you don’t make it known you like him and let some other team that likes him time to move up ahead of you and take him from you. You keep it quiet. Throw people off your scent. Which is exactly what I think Jacksonville is doing here. David Garrard did have an off season, but not bad enough to warrant replacing him in the near future. Other needs are Wide Reciever and Defensive Back. Seeing as Crabtree is off the board, I think they grab the top corner in Davis to help a defense that ranked against the pass and only picked off 13 passes. 2008 first round DE Derrick Harvey will help generate more pressure on the QB in 2009, and along with Davis, would help solidify their defense.
9 Green Bay — Aaron Maybin, Penn State — The Packers most glaring need is along the defensive line. They ranked 26th against the run in 2008 allowing 127 yards per game. Unfortunately BJ Raji is gone and it is too early for Peria Jerry from Ole Miss. If I were Green Bay I’d look to move out of this pick, add a pick and try to grab Jerry between picks 15 and 20 of the first round. If they can’t move out, then they can fill their next biggest hole on the defensive line, that of a pass rusher. With only 27 sacks last season, the Packers defense could use some more speed off the edge in new defensive coordinator Dom Capers 3-4 scheme. Maybin fits that bill and should help fill that need for the Packers.
10 San Francisco — Jeremy Maclin, Missouri — This is where things start to get interesting as most of the top end talent is off the board and teams try to fill out their needs. For the 49ers, there are many needs along both sides of the ball, I think the focus on offense though. They seem set on taking a good long look at Alex Smith and Shaun Hill at the quarterback position and Frank Gore and Vernon Davis seem to have their positions on lock down. With a solid offensive line San Francisco will look to address the WR position early. Maclin is a very dangerous reciever who excels with run after the catch, a critical skill needed in the West Coast Offense. With the future of 2008 leading reviever Isaac Bruce in doubt, and no other reciever who caught more than 45 passes a season ago, the 49ers are in need of help on the outside.
11 Buffalo — Brian Cushing, USC — The Bills seem set on the offensive side of the ball, with the exception of the Tight End position, which they can work on later in the draft. On defense, their line looks to be solid at the top, but could use some depth as the draft goes on. Same for the secondary. Last year’s top pick Leodis McKelvin has helped to strengthen the last line of defense in Buffalo, so the next logical step is helping out Paul Posluszny at linebacker. Poz’s two flanks last year left much to be desired on a week to week basis. The addition of Cushing here would help free up Poz more to help against the run.
12 Denver — Rey Maualuga, USC — Will this be the pick where the first QB will land? Only time will tell. As it stands right now though, I can’t see that happening. There defense was attrocious last year and they need help almost everywhere on that side of the ball. New coordinator Mike Nolan is going to install the 3-4 in Denver and he’ll need a lot of personel to do it. The thought was that the Broncos would kick 2008 WLB DJ Williams back into the middle, but with Maualuga on the board, it makes more sense to keep Williams where he is comfortable instead of him having to learn a position and a scheme in the same offseason. Maualuga has the size, speed and playmaking ability to excel at the next level. He can play the run and the pass, making him a perfect three down ‘backer Nolan can build his defense around.
13 Washington — Michael Oher, Ole Miss — Washington allowed 38 sacks in 2008, placing them in the top 10 in the NFL. They also only complete three passes of 40 yards, the third worst mark in the NFL. Translated: They need to give Jason Campbell more time to look down the field and complete a pass. Adding Oher to their offensive line should help, as Jon Jansen and Chris Samuels battling age and injuries. Taking a tackle this early in this draft will be the smart move for the ‘Skins, who can address their defensive end and other concerns later on.
14 New Orleans — Malcolm Jenkins, Ohio State — Even though the Saints picked off 15 passes last season, the thought of starting Randall Gay and Jabari Greer for 16 weeks should give enough pause to consider a defensive back here. Jenkins might not be a burner in a timed drill, but he has shown an ability to play the position effectively. New Orleans has been struggling on defense for years now, so to think they go anywhere else with this pick is wrong.
15 Houston — Robert Ayers, Tennessee — A compliment for Mario Williams. Ayers would give opponents something else to think about when game planning against the Texans defense. Double Mario and leave Ayers one-on-one to get at out QB? The addition of Ayers would also allow the Houston linebackers to stay at home a bit more and not have to rush the passer to help get pressure, leading to a better run defense.
16 San Diego — Percy Harvin, Florida — I do not see anyway the Chargers go running back here as some are suggesting. Yea, LaDanian Tomlinson was banged up last year, and yes he is turning 30 soon. But that doesn’t mean the LT days are over yet. He still has a few more years left in him, so it would be bad judgement to take a back here. Also, the emergence of Darren Sproles as a relief back (read “never will be an every down guy”) will help to keep LT fresh. The Bolts do need a reciever opposite Vincent Jackson though, as Chris Chambers is not cutting it. Percy Harvin would compliment Jackson well, with his big play ability and explosiveness. His presence not only would give Phillip Rivers another weapon, but it would help open up the underneath for LT and Antonio Gates in the passing game.
17 New York Jets — Matthew Stafford, Georgia — The Jets need a QB, as they do not have a starting caliber guy in their roster currently. Stafford would be a nice value here at 17, giving the Jets a QB who can hit all the throws and be the long term answer they have been looking for. Stafford will need some time to develop and grow as an NFL QB, which he will do and become a starting caliber NFL QB, I just don’t see anything special about him that warrants drafting him any higher.
18 Chicago — Darius Butler, UConn — The Bears defense ranked in the top five against the rush last year, allowing under 100 yards per game on average. As good as they were against the run, they were just as bad, if not worse, against the pass. Butler would provide them with a great cover corner with great feet and hands to help Chicago’s D get back to being the most feared defense in the NFC North.
19 Tampa Bay — Mark Sanchez, USC — Tampa Bay let every quarterback go who played a snap for them in 2008 spare Luke McCown who they resigned this offseason. McCown will “battle” Josh Johnson for the right to start in 2009, but new head coach Raheem Morris will likely look at finding his QB in this years draft. With Sanchez he gets a player with a great pedigree coming from USC where Pete Carrol’s pro style offense gives his players an edge when converting to the next level, but he also gets a guy who has some concerns about the amount of collegiate starts he made. Sanchez is another guy who will be a solid NFL starter one day, but needs time to develop and hone his skill set.
20 Detroit from Dallas — Tyson Jackson, LSU — With address their offensive line needs with the #1 overall pick, the lines have some flexibility here. More than likely though, they’ll focus on adding a key piece to their defense. Jackson will help strengthen both the defensive end and tackle position and help to rebuild the Lion defense.
21 Philadelphia — Donald Brown, UConn — All the talk about the Eagles and the draft has centered around the RB and TE positions. The only problem is that neither of these positions have ever been a priority for head coach Andy Reid. That changes this year with the selection of Brown. For years the thinking has been the one player the Eagles can not lose and still compete was Brian Westbrook, so this year they buy an insurance policy on their most needed player. Brown is a guy who strikingly resembles Westbrook in his skill set. Time will tell if Brown can resemble B-West on the field.
22 Minnesota — Darrius Heyward-Bey, Maryland — After their failed attempt to land Houshmenzadeh, it is clear what the Vikings will want to do on draft day. Heyward-Bey not only is the best reciever left on the board, but his impressive showing at the Combine and in individual workouts may make him the #2 reciever in the draft on most teams draft boards. Pairing him with Bernard Berrian in an offense that features Adrian Peterson could be just the cure the Vikes are looking for on the outside. Now, if they cn just find someone to throw the football.
23 New England — Everette Brown, Florida State — With an aging Richard Seymour on one side and Ty Warren on the other, New England could look to address defensive end early in the draft, and Brown may be the best guy for it. He has the ability to play with his hand in the ground or stand up and play backer in New Englands 3-4 scheme and offers great speed and quickness as an edge rusher. Brown could help New England from Day 1.
24 Atlanta — James Laurinaitis, Ohio State — The Falcons addressed many major offensive positions last season, drafting QB Matt Ryan and Lineman Sam Baker and signing RB Michael Turner. This year they’ll look to improve the defense that struggled at time in 2008, especially in the front seven. The Falcons have Curtis Lofton who they feel can start and produce as their MLB, but Laurinaitis at this point would be too good to pass up, especially since all of the other top OLB have been taken. Either Laurinaitis or Lofton could kick outside to fill the void there.
25 Miami — Peria Jerry, Ole Miss — Jason Furguson just turned 34 and if Jerry slips this far there is no way Bill Parcells can pass him up. Jerry offers a very solid style of play that will help Miami stay near the top in most defensive categories.
26 Baltimore — Eben Britton, Arizona — With four tackles already gone, the pickens are slim for Baltimore, who needs some help along the offensive front. Britton is the last top flight guy left, but may project better to the right side than left. His great size and physical play make him a solid choice, but his lack of speed and quickness could make him a liability on the blind side. Either way, this marks an improvement for the Ravens.
27 Indianapolis — Ziggy Hood, Missouri — Indianapolis has always had trouble on the defensive side of the ball, and nothing has changed. While things have gotten better in Indy the last few years, they still need help, especially against the run. Hood could be a piece to that puzzle, though I am not sure if he has the ability to be the answer all himself. But with a situation like this, with a Dwight Freeney on the outside, maybe Hood can help just enough to make the Colts solid against the run.
28 Philadelphia from Carolina — William Beatty, UConn — Good feet, agility and strength, Beatty looks to be the prototypical tackle for head coach Andy Reid. Beatty is one of the better pass blockers in the draft, a huge plus for Philly, and still has room to fill out is 6-foot6 frame, as he weighed in at just over 300 pounds at the Combine. Beatty will be the sixth tackle taken in the first round, but may be the best fit of all of them for Philly.
29 New York Giants — Knowshon Moreno, Georgia — The Giants lost 1/3 of their tripleheaded rushing attack last year and will need to add depth there. This is great depth, as Moreno will add qualities that Derrick Ward left town with. Moreno’s speed and versatility will be a nice balance with Brandon Jacobs bashing style of running.
30 Tennessee — Hakeem Nicks, North Carolina — With their defense set, even with the loss of Albert Haynesworth, the Titans will look to help open up the offense even more in 2009. With no true dominant reciever on the roster, the Titans could use a guy who can come in right away and help out, and that is Hakeem Nicks. Nicks has shown the ability to be a productive reciever and his postseason work at the combine made him a name teams liked near the end of the first round. However, he showed up well overweight at his pro day which may scare some teams off.
31 Arizona — Brandon Pettigrew, Oklahoma — Pettigrew is one of the only TE’s in the draft with the ability to do both block and catch, and his presence will add another dimension to a dynamic Cardinals offense in 2009.
32 Pittsburgh — Max Unger, Oregon — The Super Bowl Champs lost some depth and talent along the offensive line this offseason and will need to restock. Unger is the right player to begin that with, given his size, strength and ability to play multiple positions on the offensive line.
Today’s entrant, 