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From swamp all-timer Bensell, enjoy:

If you followed my Kentucky Derby advice, I can’t do anything but apologize. Here’s a brief description of each horse, in the order of having the best chance to win (the odds after Friday’s betting in parenthesis):

13. RACHEL ALEXANDER (3-2) There is always risk of injury, or worse, every time a horse steps on the track but those critics who are claiming that new owner Jess Jackson is putting his filly at risk by running her against the boys simply don’t know what they are talking about (and why would Jackson risk injury to the filly he just paid a rumored $9 million for?). She is the only horse to have more than one Beyer Speed Figure over 100; in fact her last 4 races have all been in triple digits despite not being asked for much by Calvin Borel. With the Derby winning jockey choosing the Oaks winner to ride, you know that this a filly to be respected. The only thing is she will offer no value in the betting line as her odds will only drop further as the money comes in tomorrow; the best chance to make money may be to single her on top in the trifecta and superfecta wheels.

5. FRIESAN FIRE (9-1) My number one pick for the Derby got banged around at the start of the race, managing to beat only one horse after being eased with about a half mile left. He came back with minor cuts on his legs, but it was his first start in 7 weeks and I think the time off worked against him. Larry Jones won the Black Eyed Susans (the Preakness equivalent to the Kentucky Oaks) on Friday, and he may be ready to break through and get his first Triple Crown win as a trainer. His post Derby workout was fantastic and he looks to rebound with another top effort.

3. MUSKET MAN (17-1) He ran a troubled third in the Derby, and should improve off that effort as it was on a sloppy track that he was clearly having problems getting his footing on. He should be able to settle right off the pace on the rail and be ready to pounce on the leaders coming out of the final turn. I sold this son of Yonaguska short when I called him a miler before the Derby, but it’s clear that he will like the shorter distance of the Preakness even more than the mile and a quarter of the Derby.

9. PIONEER OF THE NILE (7-1) This son of Empire Maker failed to win for Bob Baffert for the first time in his 5 starts for the barn when he finished as runner up in the Derby. He’s had a great work out on Monday and should be primed for another big effort. This colt has a ton of heart making it extremely hard for another horse to get past him. I don’t think he saw Mine That Bird blow by him on the rail in the Derby, but he gamely held off Must Man and Papa Clem for the place money.

1. BIG DRAMA (10-1) Of all of the male newcomers, this son of Montbrook has the best chance to take home the Woodlawn Vase given to the winning owner. He’s finished first in last 6 starts, but was disqualified in his only start this year in the Swale Stakes at 7 furlongs at Gulfstream Park. He should be able to control the pace from the inside post, and if he gets loose on the leaf will be hard to catch. I’m not sure if he will be ready to run his best race, but if he is than he stands a big shot at the win.

11. TAKE THE POINTS (14-1) Todd Pletcher’s lone entrant is coming off a fourth place finish in the Santa Anita Derby. Edgar Prado rode him in both of his wins, and his best races have been on the dirt if you go by Beyer Speed Figures. His sire is Even the Score, a son of the red-hot stallion Unbridled’s Song, and he gets plenty of stamina from the female side of his family. He may be a better bet in the Belmont Stakes, but I look for him to run a big race.

7. PAPA CLEM (14-1) The fourth place finisher in the Derby is another colt that will appreciate the turn back in distance. Gary Stute’s father won this race with Snow Chief in 1986, and it wouldn’t be much of a stretch to see another Stute in the Preakness winner’s circle. He’s one of the few horses that are hoping the weather forecast is wrong, and the track comes up fast tomorrow.

2. MINE THAT BIRD (7-1) It wouldn’t surprise me at all if he repeats his Derby run, but the Preakness does not look like it is going to have the same sort of pace scenario that allowed him to unleash his monster move. Mike Smith picks up the mount as Borel moves over to Rachel Alexandra, but he will give the Derby winner the same kind of patient ride. I like his chances much more in the Belmont Stakes, but I don’t think he will bounce off his Derby win and throw in a bad effort in the Preakness.

8. GENERAL QUARTERS (17-1) The feel good story of Derby week was Tom McCarthy’s one horse stable; too bad this Sky Mesa colt could do no better than splitting the field by finishing 10th after having a rough trip. He’s bounced back with a nice work at Churchill Downs on Monday and the word from Pimlico is the General has been the best looking colt on the grounds this week.

6. TERRAIN (24-1) This horse hasn’t won since last August, but this will only be his third start this year so he should improve off his fourth place effort in the Bluegrass Stakes last out. But I don’t see him closing in for more than a minor piece of the purse.

4. LUV GOV (25-1) This horse was a winner at Churchill Downs on the first Saturday in May; unfortunately it was in a maiden race and it was the 10th start of his career. This D. Wayne Lukas trainee was originally thought to be Lukas’ best chance at another Triple Crown race this year, but it is a huge step up from the maiden ranks to a Grade I race. But if any trainer can pull such a move it’s the Coach.

12. TONE IT DOWN (19-1) This Maryland based horse is coming off a third place finish in his stakes debut in the Tesio Stakes. Kent Desormeaux picks up the mount, but I’d be stunned if he can make this big of a step up in class.

10. FLYING PRIVATE (24-1) He ran dead last in the Derby, beaten over 43 lengths, and he has a better chance of completing the Triple Crown of Losers by finishing last in all 3 races than picking up a check at Pimlico.

My betting strategy is going to single Rachel Alexandra in a few Pick 3s and the Pick 4 and try to catch some long shots in the first legs. I’ll also have a back up ticket of Friesan Fire, Musket Man, Pioneerof the Nile, Big Drama and/or Take the Points & Papa Clem with my top choice or two in each of the earlier races. I’m taking a stand against Mine That Bird, not because he’s a fluke but since the pace scenario comes up against him. I was feeling great as the horses were loading into to the gate two weeks ago, as I had 2 live Pick 3s and a Pick 4 with a total of 9 horses possible to win. But I wasn’t the only person stunned when Mine That Bird came storming up the rail; hopefully tomorrow will be a more profitable day. I’ll post some of my other picks for the day in the Swamp and always good luck on any wagers.