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DALLAS MAVERICKS

ADDITIONS: G Greg Buckner, F Drew Gooden, F Shawn Marion, G/F Quentin Ross, F Tim Thomas

SUBTRACTIONS: F Brandon Bass, G/F Devean George, C Ryan Hollins, G Jerry Stackhouse, G/F Antoine Wright

STARTERS: PG – Jason Kidd, SG – Josh Howard, SF – Shawn Marion, PF – Dirk Nowitzki, C – Erick Dampier

ROTATION: G Jose Barea, G/F Greg Buckner, F Drew Gooden, G/F Quentin Ross, G Jason Terry, F Tim Thomas

OUTLOOK: Unlike many teams in the NBA who are responding to the economic recession with talk of carrying the minimum thirteen players on their roster, the deep pockets of Mark Cuban and (willingness to empty those pockets) have filled the Mavericks’ roster with an overabundance of players who are worthy of NBA roster spots. Dallas swapped out about half their rotation from last season in their perpetual chase of an NBA title. The team had a rough start at the onset of Rick Carlisle’s tenure last season, dropping seven of their first nine, but the team quickly rebounded and won 50 games on the year.
As usual, the Mavericks will be led by Dirk Nowitzki, but as a change of pace, Nowitzki did not play for the German National Team this summer, giving him a chance to actually rest and be ready for the season. Nowitzki’s rebounding has tapered off in each of the last four years, so perhaps some fresh legs will alleviate that, as well as is 35.9 percent shooting percentage from deep in each of the last two seasons. Joining him at forward is Shawn Marion, who will settle down after splitting last season between Miami and Toronto. Marion’s signing suggests that Dallas will play more uptempo and he would be a good fit with Jason Kidd as a finisher and garbage bucket man. Kidd again returns at point guard in his distributor role. Kidd has had increasing difficulty keeping up with the quicker point guards as he has gotten older, but is still a very good point guard at the age of 35. Kidd will be joined in the backcourt by Josh Howard, who slides down from the three to make room for Marion. Howard missed 30 games last season, but had his best scoring season on a per-minute basis (20.3 points per 36 minutes). It remains to be seen if he can keep that up while further away from the basket and with another established scorer in the mix. Erick Dampier is the man in the middle again, bringing his rebounding abilities and filling the role as the lone shotblocker on the team.
Learning behind Kidd is Jose Barea, a promising young point guard. Barea is not ready for prime time, but averaged over 20 minutes per game last year and started fifteen times at the two. Jason Terry is the team’s sixth man, providing ballhandling to go with his scorer’s mentality and accurate shooting. Terry saw nearly 34 minutes per game last year and, after making a team-high 167 treys last year, should see a similar amount this year to help spread the floor for the slashing Marion and Howard as the team is likely to small for long stretches with Nowitzki manning the pivot. The team has a pair of defensive stoppers to turn to, as needed, in Quentin Ross and Greg Buckner. The younger of the two, Ross, should get more of an opportunity to make his presence felt. Neither is a particularly good offensive player, but they both stay within their limitations. Tim Thomas will provide more outside shooting from the power forward spot while Drew Gooden will bang and work in the mid-range for his points. Nowitzki will likely see a fair amount of time at the center spot when Thomas is on the floor while Gooden will bump and grind with the bigs even though he will give up size to most pivot men.

HOUSTON ROCKETS

ADDITIONS: G/F Trevor Ariza, C David Andersen, F Chase Budinger, F Pops Mensah-Bonsu

SUBTRACTIONS: G/F Ron Artest, C Dikembe Mutombo, G Von Wafer

STARTERS: PG – Aaron Brooks, SG – Trevor Ariza, SF – Shane Battier, PF – Luis Scola, C –

ROTATION: C David Andersen, F Brian Cook, F Joey Dorsey, F Chuck Hayes, F Carl Landry, G Kyle Lowry, G/F Tracy McGrady, F Pops Mensah-Bonsu

OUTLOOK: The Rockets also have a ton of NBA-caliber players on the team, but that is due to their injury-ravaged nature. Yao Ming is lost for the season with a foot injury and Tracy McGrady is not ready to come back right now, although he will hopefully return to action this season. Rick Adelman has a tremendous challenge in front of him, as the franchise has won at least 52 games in each of the last three seasons, including the most recent two where he has had the controls. This season will be a test of popular theories about needing star players to succeed in the NBA and if the sum of parts is greater than its whole.
Waterbug Aaron Brooks will get a chance to run the team after logging 35 starts last year. Brooks is one of the fastest players in the NBA and can create a lot of offense for himself by going to the rim, but averaged only 4.3 assists per 36 minutes last year, so he may have some problems running the offense and getting everyone involved. Trevor Ariza and Shane Battier are interchangeable at the shooting guard and small forward spots. Ariza had a great year of growth while winning a ring with the Lakers last season and has a major opportunity to step forward toward stardom. If Ariza can further develop consistency from outside and use his athleticism to get to the rim more often, he could threaten 18 points per game, which would possibly lead the team. Battier will get a chance to shoulder a greater offensive load this season. More important to the Rockets is Battier’s health, as his professionalism and intellect are needed by this youthful crew. Luis Scola will be the lead post player on offense and should improve on his scoring and rebounding. Scola should turn into a double-double machine and threaten 18 points per game, as well. “Center” has been intentionally left blank, but feel free to submit suggestions. There is a strong likelihood of Scola sliding to center and one of the Rockets’ undersized, yet solid power forwards stepping into the starting lineup (or playing at center, at least in name).
Speaking of those undersized fours, Carl Landry and Chuck Hayes are both willing defenders and rebounders. Hayes may get the starting role to leave more shots available for Brooks, Ariza, and Scola while Landry can come off the bench to help carry the load for the bench unit with his opportunistic scoring. Both Landry and Hayes averaged over three offensive rebounds per 36 minutes, which is a pretty fair feat. David Andersen and Brian Cook are cut from the same cloth – outside shooting and not a whole lot of defense in a tall package. Anderson’s perimeter game is more of the mid-range variety while Cook’s extends out past the three-point line. Joey Dorsey and Pops Mensah-Bonsu fit the same profile, as well (are you noticing all this redundancy, too?). The two are young players who rely on athleticism to contribute on defense and the glass with unpolished offensive games. Mensah-Bonsu, however, is a much better rebounder than Dorsey, which should help him get ahead in the rotation. Kyle Lowry provides another speedy guard, albeit one who can get out of control easily. While bigger than Brooks, Lowry is only 6’0”. He provides strong defensive ball pressure, but does not shoot particularly well from deep. Lowry could be used as part of an exceptionally small lineup to play at breakneck speed to change a game. Tracy McGrady is a question mark for the season. It is unknown when he will return and what he will be able to contribute when he does.

MEMPHIS GRIZZLIES

ADDITIONS: G Allen Iverson, F Zach Randolph, G Mike Taylor, C Hasheem Thabeet

SUBTRACTIONS: G Greg Buckner, F Darius Miles, F/C Darko Milicic, F Hakim Warrick

STARTERS: PG – Mike Conley, SG – OJ Mayo, SF – Rudy Gay, PF – Zach Randolph, C – Marc Gasol

ROTATION: F/C Darrell Arthur, F DeMarre Carroll, G Allen Iverson, C Hasheem Thabeet, F Sam Young

OUTLOOK: The Memphis Grizzlies seem to be an amalgamation of team-building experiments, which befits a team where the owner has final say over all personnel moves, thereby gutting the general manager of all power. As a result, a team that was overflowing with potential and exciting youth brought in a pair of veterans likely to eat up large amounts of minutes and shots. Sounds like a recipe that nets 68 victories in the last three seasons.
The Grizzlies certainly have some exciting young talent. When looked at on paper, Mike Conley stagnated during his second season with the only marked changes in his statistical line coming in three-point shooting and his work at the charity stripe. Rather, Conley was reinserted into the starting lineup the last two weeks of January and responded with the best play of his young career – 14.8 points and 5.6 assists per game on 48.1 shooting from the field and 43.4 percent from deep. His backcourt mate, OJ Mayo, started every game of his debut season and nearly led the team with 18.5 points per game. Mayo actually led the team in minutes and three-pointers (145), which is pretty heady stuff for a rook. Rudy Gay kept Mayo from leading the team in scoring, tallying 18.9 points per game. Gay, however, took a step back in his per-minute statistics across the board with the addition of Mayo. That does not bode well for him with newcomer Zach Randolph on board. Randolph, who was imported from New York in a summer deal, is a guy who can be penciled in for a 20-10 in the box score and some delightfully questionable decision-making both on and off the floor. Randolph is a black hole who has never been a driving force on a winning team, which makes his acquisition shaky. Marc Gasol performed nicely in his rookie season in the States. While not a shotblocker down low, Gasol is sturdy and capable of stepping up his game into the nightly double-double range.
The other half of that veteran duo who is new to Memphis is Allen Iverson. Iverson, who has been saying all the right things thus far, has a chance to do some career resuscitation by leading the team and improving the young potential stars. Of course, based on Iverson’s track record, there will be some grousing and selfishness on the court. The real concern is that every minute that Iverson is on the court is one that either Conley or Mayo will not be on the court (unless they are going very small). Marko Jaric will probably see some minutes off the bench at the point to allow Iverson to play the two while Jaris adds some size to the backcourt. The rest of the bench is comprised of youth, including a pair of draftees at small forward in Sam Young and DeMarre Carroll. Young was an accomplished scorer at Pittsburgh while Carroll provided energy and defense at Missouri. They will probably gain floor experience based on what is needed during game situations that call for their capabilities. Second-year man Darrell Arthur had 63 starts last year for the Grizz and was a decent rebounder and defender. Arthur’s offensive game needs polish and he would be well-served to learn some post moves from Randolph while he is in town. Hasheem Thabeet will be an intimidator in the post, relying on his massive height and wingspan to deter foes around the rim. It will be key for him to not become frustrated over the course of the season, as his campaign is likely to be difficult at times due to foul trouble while he adjusts to the speed and talented big men of the pro game.

NEW ORLEANS HORNETS

ADDITIONS: G Darren Collison, F Ike Diogu, F/C Emeka Okafor

SUBTRACTIONS: G/F Rasual Butler, C Tyson Chandler, G Antonio Daniels

STARTERS: PG – Chris Paul, SG – James Posey, SF –Julian Wright, PF – David West, C – Emeka Okafor

ROTATION: F/C Hilton Armstrong, G Devin Brown, G Darren Collison, F Ike Diogu, F Darius Songaila, F Peja Stojakovic

OUTLOOK: The Hornets revolve around their two primary stars, but have been strapped financially by a couple bad contracts, which have prevented them from adding the complimentary pieces needed to flourish and reach the next level. As such, the Hornets look to an injection of youth and cheap role players to push them to the next level. It may not work, but it is the best choice for the franchise.
Everything for the Hornets starts with Chris Paul. He led the team in scoring, assists, and steals (actually, he led the league in those last two categories) and shot over 50 percent from the field. Without Paul, the Hornets are probably a 30-win team. His backcourt mate will be James Posey, who gets a promotion into the starting lineup as the best player available at either swingman spot. Posey still has defensive toughness, rebounds well, and will be the Hornets’ best three-point shooter in their starting five. With Paul’s ability to drive and getting greater minutes, Posey should improve on his 116 threes and 36.9 percent accuracy. Julian Wright will be a starter for the first time in his third season. Wright is a 6’8” athletic freak who got minutes as a rookie in the playoffs in order to chase around and harass Tony Parker of the Spurs, which he did rather effectively. Wright should use his length and young legs to help out on the glass and on defense until his offensive game comes along. David West is as much as a sure thing as Paul, just on a lesser level, or at least as much of a lesser level a walking 20-point, eight-rebound guy can be. West’s consistency from fifteen to twenty feet makes him a perfect partner in a pick-and-pop offense with Paul. Emeka Okafor replaces Tyson Chandler at center and provides a different style of defense, but similar results. Okafor is more of a banger than high-flyer, but still blocks shots like Chandler, just less dramatically. Okafor will also provide a little more punch on offense and is a better rebounder.
Rookie Darren Collison should be able to handle the spare ten minutes or so that Paul does not play. Collison is a solid player and can work the pick-and-roll and pick-and-pop plays fairly well, not to mention finish at the rim. He showed more than adequate shooting touch in college from deep and should develop the same reliability at the NBA distance in time. Devin Brown is a veteran player whose responsibility will be to play defense well enough to keep Morris Peterson on the bench, save for when the Hornets need threes in a hurry. Peja Stojakovic has volunteered to move to the bench due to his ongoing back issues. Stojakovic could be promoted to the starting lineup if Wright cannot handle the starting role or if Byron Scott opts to move Posey back to the bench. Stojakovic can still fill it up from outside, hitting a team-best 145 threes last year while missing 21 games. Darius Songaila comes over from Washington and provides a hard edge to his play at the four. Songaila will bang down low and stays within himself on offense. Ike Diogu and Hilton Armstrong will compete for minutes in the rotation at power forward and center. Diogu has been hindered by nagging injuries during preseason and never gotten adequate minutes to show if he is capable at this level while Armstrong has not been able to consistently deliver much in his brief NBA career except fouls.

SAN ANTONIO SPURS

ADDITIONS: F Dejuan Blair, F Richard Jefferson, F/C Antonio McDyess

SUBTRACTIONS: F Bruce Bowen, F Drew Gooden, F/C Fabricio Oberto, F Kurt Thomas

STARTERS: PG – Tony Parker, SG – Roger Mason, SF – Richard Jefferson, PF – Antonio McDyess, C – Tim Duncan

ROTATION: F Dejuan Blair, F Matt Bonner, G/F Michael Finley, G Manu Ginobili, G George Hill

OUTLOOK: The perennial threats to the NBA title are back with a slightly different look. The formula the Spurs had used previously became stale, leading to the acquisition of Richard Jefferson, who can provide some athleticism and slashing ability, as well as an additional offensive threat in the event Manu Ginobili breaks down, as he is wont to do. Ginobili, however, did not compete internationally this summer and should be ready to go. Gregg Popovich, as always, coaches with one goal in mind – the title – and is certain to rest his big producers as needed.
Tim Duncan will be the center, even though they will undoubtedly announce him at power forward. Timmy, you’ve been very tall for a long time. It’s okay. Duncan will be his usual consistent self and you can pencil him in for 20-10 every night. Antonio McDyess will be the player listed at center and will provide a little more offensive punch and minutes compared to what Duncan has gotten from his fellow post players in recent seasons. McDyess is a wily veteran who will rebound well and stay within himself on offense. Richard Jefferson was brought in from Milwaukee and should be in the prime of his career. It remains to be seen how he can mesh with a team of established stars who require strong defensive effort. One big thing in Jefferson’s favor is that he is coming off his best season at three-point shooting, having made a personal-best 38.7 percent on a career-high 292 attempts last season. Tony Parker is an elite point guard whose ability to get to the basket is almost unparalleled in the game. Parker set career highs of 22 points and 6.9 assists per game and shot an impressive 50.6 percent from the floor last season. Roger Mason will get the job at the two again, having gone from fringe NBA player to solid bench contributor to established starter. Mason got the nod in 71 games last season and responded with a career year, hitting 166 treys at a 42.1 percent conversion rate. His minutes should get clipped some this year, as he will not be sliding to the three that often.
Manu Ginobili (and Jefferson) is the reason Mason will get his minutes clipped. Ginobili came into the season without having played international ball in order to rest his ankle after missing almost half the season and the joint is “pain-free,” meaning he will be ready to roll. George Hill will get the backup point guard role this season, grabbing some loose minutes here and there. Hill needs to improve his offensive game to be a solid contributor. Michael Finley will be demoted to the bench and see a reduced role this season as a backup swingman. Finley has evolved into a deadeye shooter from deep, making 131 triples last season on 41.1 percent shooting and should continue to play well with his minutes reduced. He will also be ready to step in when Popovich periodically gives a starter the night off. Matt Bonner will see minutes at the four as a defense-stretcher when the team goes with four shooters around Duncan. Bonner started 67 games last year (and may start over McDyess to bring the veteran off the bench behind Duncan at some point of the season) and buried 118 threes on 44 percent shooting. Dejuan Blair was the best rebounder in the NCAA last year and somehow managed to be sitting at the #37 spot in the draft for the Spurs to snare. He immediately began producing in spite of being undersized for the NBA power forward spot (6’7”) and having no ACLs, going for sixteen points and nineteen rebounds in his first preseason tilt and later scoring 28 points in another contest.

PROJECTED DIVISION STANDINGS:
1. San Antonio
2. Dallas
3. New Orleans
4. Houston
5. Memphis

The Spurs loaded up for another title run with the acquisition of Richard Jefferson and the drafting of Dejuan Blair. They should be able to ride their horses to the division championship, even while keeping their stars fresh for the postseason. Dallas brings a very full deck of cards and should stay within three or four wins of the division lead. New Orleans is a solid team who should be closer to Dallas than Houston. The Rockets simply have too many injuries to overcome, but will be a game opponent almost every night. The Grizzlies lack any sort of defensive focus and need to make sure their young players do not have their growth stunted by the arrival of Zach Randolph and Allen Iverson.