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DENVER NUGGETS

ADDITIONS: G Arron Afflalo, F Malik Allen, G Ty Lawson

SUBTRACTIONS: G/F Dahntay Jones, F Linas Kleiza

STARTERS: PG – Chauncey Billups, SG – JR Smith, SF – Carmelo Anthony, PF – Kenyon Martin, C – Nene

ROTATION: G Arron Afflalo, F Malik Allen, F/C Chris Andersen, G/F Renaldo Balkman, G Anthony Carter

OUTLOOK: The Nuggets profited greatly from the Chauncey Billups trade last year, vaulting to their first Western Conference Finals appearance since 1984-85. Billups’ acquisition also drove the Nuggets to the 54-win plateau, tying the franchise’s best effort since joining the NBA. The team returns almost intact, so expectations will be high in the Mile High City. (Cheeseball sportswriter “cleverness” overuse count: one.)
Billups led the surge to the top of the Northwest Division, averaging 17.9 points and 6.4 assists after coming over from Detroit. “Mr. Big Shot” also enjoyed his role as an outside shooter, making 162 treys on the season. JR Smith will join Billups in the starting rotation once his seven-game suspension for offcourt chicanery (he served 24 days in prison this summer for reckless driving in 2007). Smith will be the designated bomber for the Nuggets after splashing a team-high 180 triples last season and gives the team five double-figure scorers in their starting unit. Carmelo Anthony is the lead dog for Denver and hopes to be healthy after missing sixteen contests last season. With a little more scoring burden lifted by Smith’s presence in the starting lineup, Anthony should return from last season’s 44.3 percent field goal shooting to something more along the lines of the 48.3 percent he averaged over the course of the three previous campaigns, which would also return him to the 25-point per game plateau. Like Anthony, Kenyon Martin also missed sixteen games last season. The defensive ace should start to slow down as he approaches the back end of his career, but he is still tough on both ends and unwilling to back down. Nene flourished in a return to a full-time starting role, tallying 14.6 points and 7.8 rebounds per game while finishing second in the league at 60.4 percent from the field. Fantasy players, be aware that the Brazilian also averaged over a steal and a block per game and should be capable of lifting his rebounding totals closer to double-double territory.
With Smith’s promotion to the lineup, there is no instant offense coming off the bench, but there are a couple defensive stoppers on the wing. Arron Afflalo comes over from Detroit and will offer the ability to guard at the two with range that must be respected. Afflalo improved his shooting from deep from 20.8 percent as a rookie to 40.2 percent as a soph, so he seems to know the role he needs to carve out for himself. Renaldo Balkman saw action in 56 games for Denver last season, including ten starts. Balkman will never be confused with being a shooter, but stays within his offensive comfort zone while being an energetic defensive pest. Picking up the spare minutes that Billups does not play is Anthony Carter, who does a solid job of running the team in his limited minutes. Carter averaged 7.3 assists per 36 minutes, which is actually more than Billups. Malik Allen will play the four and Chris Andersen will occupy minutes at both frontcourt spots off the bench. Allen does a little bit of everything, but just has not been asked to do so on the offensive end in nearly two years. That will not change in his sixth NBA stop. Andersen is an excellent fit for this uptempo team, as his strengths are in shotblocking and transition offense. “The Birdman” was second in the league at 2.5 blocks per game in limited duty. More impressive was that he averaged 4.3 blocks (and a team-best 10.9 rebounds) per 36 minutes.

MINNESOTA TIMBERWOLVES

ADDITIONS: C Mark Blount, G Wayne Ellington, G Jonny Flynn, C Ryan Hollins, G Ramon Sessions, G Damien Wilkins

SUBTRACTIONS: G Randy Foye, F Mike Miller, F Craig Smith, G Sebastian Telfair

STARTERS: PG – Ramon Sessions, SG – Corey Brewer, SF – Ryan Gomes, PF – Kevin Love, C – Al Jefferson

ROTATION: G Wayne Ellington, G Jonny Flynn, C Ryan Hollins, G/F Sasha Pavlovic, G/F Damien Wilkins

OUTLOOK: The Timberwolves are committing to a longterm rebuilding program, so Kurt Rambis will have his job safe no matter how poor the team’s record. And it will be poor. This is not to say the roster is void of talent, but there is just a long way to climb for this young team as they build for the future. It also does not help that Ricky Rubio will be playing in Europe. There is not much point in having the number five pick in the draft if you will not get anything out of it, other than the ability to trade away your starting shooting guard (Randy Foye) and small forward (Mike Miller).
The leader of this pack is Al Jefferson, who will turn 25 as the All-Star Game approaches. Hopefully, at that time, Jefferson will fully be over the torn ACL he suffered last year, as well as the Achilles tendonitis that is nagging him in the preseason. Jefferson was simply a load down low, ringing up 23.1 points and 11.0 rebounds per game while shooting a touch below 50 percent from the floor. He will be less of a load this year, though, as Jefferson also lost 31 pounds over the summer, which should help alleviate the stress on his knee and heel. Jefferson’s running mate will be Kevin Love, or at least will be when he returns from a broken hand that will likely sideline him into November. Love is an excellent rebounder (12.9 boards per 36 minutes last season), but the injury is likely to affect his solid outside shooting and hurt his attempts to extend his range to the three-point-line. Ryan Gomes is a solid player who appeared in every game and started 76 times. Gomes has worked hard on his overall game since arriving in the league and made 106 treys last year, 28 more than in his first three full seasons combined. Corey Brewer is back from an injury that cost him most of his season and will be counted on to be a stopper on the wing. Brewer’s offense is well behind his defense, though, and he should remain within his strengths on that end. Ramon Sessions was a late free agent signing and will start at the point. Sessions is a better point than his reputation and does a solid job taking care of the ball (2.97-to-1 assist-to-turnover ratio) while still scoring at a good pace. Sessions is not a good outside shooter, though, as evidenced by his nine career triples.
Jonny Flynn, the top-six point guard that the Timberwolves drafted who will suit up for Minnesota this season, could actually nudge Brewer out of the starting lineup and Sessions to the two. Flynn is a very good pick-and-roll player who will rely on his quickness until his outside shooting catches up. Flynn should also develop into a solid on-the-ball pest after having played mostly zone at Syracuse. The team has three wing players to pick from in Wayne Ellington, Sasha Pavlovic, and Damien Wilkins. Ellington, the rookie, will probably have to wait his turn and earn his minutes. Pavlovic is the more polished outside player of the two veterans and has a little bit of attitude to go with his outside stroke. Hopefully for the Wolves, Pavlovic will carry over his “odd year” three-point shooting percentage (39.1 percent in three seasons – ’05, ’07, ’09) to an even year (31.4 percent in ’04, ’06, and ’08). Wilkins has been a sometime starter in his five NBA seasons, and can earn minutes with his defensive effort. The only big man who is certain to get minutes is Ryan Hollins, the former Bobcat and Maverick who is limited on offense, but a pretty fair rebounder and brings size. While Love is out, Flynn may get promoted to the starting lineup, pushing Sessions to the two, Brewer to the three, and Gomes to the four. It would be a small group, but with two players with point guard skills, the team may look to counteract its lack of size by looking for opportunities to go uptempo.

OKLAHOMA CITY THUNDER

ADDITIONS: G James Harden, G Kevin Ollie, C Etan Thomas

SUBTRACTIONS: G Chucky Atkins, G Earl Watson, G/F Damien Wilkins

STARTERS: PG – Russell Westbrook, SG – Thabo Sefolosha, SF – Kevin Durant, PF – Jeff Green, C – Nenad Krstic

ROTATION: F/C Nick Collison, G James Harden, G Kevin Ollie, F/C Etan Thomas, G/F Kyle Weaver

OUTLOOK: The results have not been good over the past two years (43 wins combined), but the seeds that have been planted should be flowering soon. Sam Presti has been patient, growing the team slowly, looking for steady growth for long-term benefits and resisting the need to throw money for quick changes to boost the franchise’s fortunes. (Bill Simmons and your ill-advised man-crush on David Lee for eight million per year, I’m looking in your direction. The reason why you love Presti is the reason why he would never throw that money at something that isn’t much more than a one-trick pony.) This is the year when dividends start to be paid.
Kevin Durant, welcome to center stage. The pressure could be higher on the 21-year-old, but that would only be the case if the Thunder were supposed to be a playoff contender. Instead, it is up to Durant to improve on his mind-boggling sophomore numbers (25.3 points, 6.5 rebounds, 2.8 assists per game, 47.6 percent from the field, 42.2 percent from deep, and 86.3 percent at the line). Joining the “50-40-90 Club” could happen, but the team would be well-served for him to become a better all-around player. Jeff Green flanks Durant at the four and does a little bit of everything, finishing second on the team in scoring (16.5 pts/game), rebounding (6.7 per game), and threes (97). Not bad for a player who turned 23 a month ago. Nenad Krstic will man the middle after joining the team in midseason last year. In 46 games (29 starts), Krstic posted averages of 14.0 points, 8.0 rebounds, and 1.5 blocks per 36 minutes, so he should get penciled in for 30 minutes per night. Russell Westbrook played in every game as a rookie, including 65 starts at the point. While he had a lousy shooting year (39.8 percent from the field and 27.1 from deep) and turned the ball over too frequently (3.3 turnovers per game, 1.59-to-1 assist-to-turnover ratio), Westbrook logged a ton of minutes and should be more comfortable in his sophomore campaign. Thabo Sefolosha will again fill his role as an energetic defender after coming over from Chicago last year. A guy from Switzerland who averaged 1.7 steals and 1.1 blocks per game for the Thunder is dying for a very obvious nickname.
One reason Sefolosha lacks that obvious name is that he is probably not long for the starting lineup. Oklahoma City’s fourth collegiate lottery pick in the last three drafts is James Harden from Arizona State, a lefty with the “old man’s game” and good shooting range. Harden will likely take over the two at some point during the season. Kevin Ollie will be Westbrook’s tutor and fill a dozen minutes per night with his steady play. Kyle Weaver is another young player who, like Sefolosha, can play both swingman spots and will earn minutes with his defensive play. Weaver needs to work on his offensive consistency, but is willing to stick his nose into things and grind on the defensive end. Nick Collison and Etan Thomas will share minutes at the four and five off the bench. Collison is a rock, averaging around eight and seven while doing a lot of work on the offensive glass, averaging an offensive board every ten minutes on the court. That is fairly impressive for a man who spent a lot of time last season being overmatched at center. Thomas returns to his home state after missing the last three months of his final season with the Wizards. Never an effective scorer, Thomas provides toughness and a deterrent at the rim.

PORTLAND TRAIL BLAZERS

ADDITIONS: G Andre Miller

SUBTRACTIONS: F/C Channing Frye, G Sergio Rodriguez

STARTERS: PG – Steve Blake, SG – Brandon Roy, SF – Nicolas Batum, PF – LaMarcus Aldridge, C – Joel Przybilla

ROTATION: G Rudy Fernandez, G Andre Miller, C Greg Oden, F Travis Outlaw, G/F Martell Webster

OUTLOOK: Who likes their teams trending up and adding talent? You’ve come to the right place. Portland has increased their win total on each of the last three seasons, going from 21 victories in 2005-06 to last year’s 54 wins and return to the postseason. The team since added to the weakest position on the roster and, should they all get acclimated to each other and their roles, the Blazers should reach even higher levels.
Brandon Roy has been to a couple All-Star games already and solidified himself as Portland’s go-to player. Roy handles the ball in late game situations on top of his do-everything game, having led the team in points (22.6/game), assists (5.1/game), and steals (88). Roy will be joined in the starting backcourt by Steve Blake, whose steady hand, deep range, and familiarity with the team are keeping him in front of Andre Miller, the team’s big-name offseason acquisition, in the team’s rotation for the start of the game. Blake was right behind Roy in assists (5.0/game) while carding a 3.22-to-1 assist-to-turnover ratio and buried 140 threes at a 42.7 percent clip, so, while he has limitations (size, defense), Blake certainly known his role and stays within it. Nicolas Batum will start at the small forward spot, just as he did 76 times last year as a 20-year-old rookie. He will likely get limited minutes again due to the overflowing depth at the wing, but provides good defense with a developing offensive arsenal. LaMarcus Aldridge’s smooth stroke from the mid-range should get him penciled in for another eighteen points per game. It would be helpful if his long, lean frame could grab more than 7.3 rebounds per 36 minutes, which is well below what a 6’11” player should grab, especially one who just signed a contract extension for close to maximum money. Joel Przybilla again is penciled in at the pivot, but he should get a reduced role this season. This is not a knock on Przybilla’s game, as he is a consummate pro who grabs 13.2 rebounds per 36 minutes. It is more a remark about the health and advancement of Greg Oden.
Oden has entered the season healthy and reportedly in significantly better shape than last year. Oden, who posted some pretty fair per-minute numbers last year (14.8 points, 11.6 rebounds, 1.9 blocks per 36 minutes), has been even better in this preseason, hanging 22.8 points, 15.6 rebounds, and 2.1 blocks per 36 minutes. Fouls are still an issue for the developing young big man, but he should have a coming out party this season. Andre Miller will likely take over the point guard duties during the season, as the Blazers didn’t sign him to a three-year, $21 million contract to have him back up Blake or even have a timeshare role. Miller can run an offense and, with the Blazers’ diverse group, should be an excellent floor leader, especially if he can be coaxed into pushing the ball. Rudy Fernandez will play some at both guard spots, as he can be paired with either Miller or Roy with no worries. Fernandez paced the Blazers with 159 threes last season, which is a good thing considering how 63 percent of his field goal attempts came from behind the big boy line. Martell Webster is back after missing all but five minutes of last season. Webster was a developing three-point shooter on the wing, having made 123 treys two seasons ago at a 38.8 percent clip. Travis Outlaw can play at either forward spot and provides the ability to stretch the defense at the four. Mostly coming off the bench, Outlaw has been good for double figure scoring the last two seasons and more than doubled his three-point output last season, jumping from 40 to 89 in just 60 more minutes on the floor.

UTAH JAZZ

ADDITIONS: G Eric Maynor

SUBTRACTIONS: none

STARTERS: PG – Deron Williams, SG – Ronnie Brewer, SF – Andrei Kirilenko, PF – Carlos Boozer, C – Mehmet Okur

ROTATION: C Kyrylo Fesenko, F Matt Harpring, G/F Kyle Korver, C Kosta Koufos, G/F CJ Miles, F Paul Millsap, G Ronnie Price

OUTLOOK: It shouldn’t come as much of a surprise that the team whose head coach is entering his 22nd season at the helm brings back almost literally the same cast it had the year previous. However, continuity has been a good thing for the Jazz, as Sloan has posted a winning record 20 times in his 21 seasons. If the Jazz can remain healthy this year, they should bounce back from last year’s “down year” of only 48 wins and threaten for the division title again.
Carlos Boozer returns from an injury that cost him 45 games last year and, if he can contribute at his normal level (18.0 points, 11.6 rebounds per game last year), both he and the Jazz should forget the hard feelings they may have for one another. Boozer will turn 28 in a month and is in a contract year, so he undoubtedly will be looking to cash in on his opportunity. Mehmet Okur will play next to Boozer in the frontcourt, metaphorically speaking. The Turkish pivot is perhaps the man most responsible for Boozer having room to operate down low, as he made 90 treys at a 44.6 percent clip. Okur, however, does help Boozer on the glass, pulling down 7.7 boards per night. Andrei Kirilenko may get the opportunity to regain his spot in the starting lineup, as injuries have opened the way for the Russian to start again. Kirilenko started only ten times last year, but is still a defensive pest and provides additional length on the floor. Ronnie Brewer is back at the two guard spot after tallying 13.7 points per game last season. Most of those points came on slashes to the basket, either in the halfcourt or in transition, as Brewer relies on his athleticism for most of his game, which included last year’s team-best 138 steals. Deron Williams is the engine that makes the team go at the point. Williams is one of the best point guards in the game, having led the team with 19.4 points and 10.7 assists per game last year while burying 84.9 percent of his charity tosses.
Boozer may be allowed to walk away at the end of the season due to Paul Millsap being signed for four years and $32 million, including over ten million already paid out. Millsap is an excellent replacement at the four, as his per-minute rates nearly match those of Boozer, only it takes Millsap fewer shots to score almost as much and he also is a better shotblocker. Kosta Koufos and Kyrylo Fesenko both will get a chance to back up Okur, but with the two power forwards able to play the five for a few minutes, each of the youngsters will have to earn their opportunities. Both seven-footers are on the underside of 25, so they should both get a chance to develop. On reason the two youngsters will get a bigger shot at court time is Matt Harpring is suffering from ongoing ankle and knee problems that may cause his retirement. If healthy, Harpring can play either forward position and is closer to being a three, but his effort and heart make up for any other shortcomings. The man who would be the starter at the three is CJ Miles, who had to get a torn ligament repaired in his thumb and will not start rehab until the season is a couple weeks old. Miles started 72 games last year at the age of 21 and was a nice complementary player. Should his three-point stroke continue to develop, Miles should establish himself as a mainstay for Utah. Kyle Korver is the designated long distance swingman after making 103 threes last year. Should Korver get his percentage from deep over 40 percent (which isn’t a stretch – he shot 38.8 percent last year), he may see more playing time over the course of the season, which could help his confidence even more. Ronnie Price will get the scraps at the point. Price is not much of a scorer and his frequent turnovers offset his ability to set up his mates.

PROJECTED DIVISION STANDINGS:
1. Portland
2. Utah
3. Denver
4. Oklahoma City
5. Minnesota

Portland seems stacked after its addition of Andre Miller and Greg Oden’s offseason improvement added to Brandon Roy’s all-around brilliance. Utah should ride the return of Carlos Boozer and Deron Williams’ continued improvement back above the 50-win plateau. The Nuggets got 143 games out of Kenyon Martin and Nene last year, which seems a little too high this season, and, with less focus on defense, should fall to third place. Oklahoma City will be a miserable matchup for any team by New Year’s, but is still a year away from the postseason. It will be a long, cost season in Minnesota and the team will target an electric scoring swingman in the lottery.