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I’m back on the front. Yea! Time for the 2nd Annual MLB DelAwards where I take use a heavily statistical slant to fill out my hypothetical award ballots. To warm up, I’m going to clear out the categories I don’t really care about then get into the more meaningful awards over the next week or two.

AL Manager of the Year

Ron Gardenhire, MIN, 87-76, 1st in the AL Central: I’m not sure what the proper methodology is for picking a winner when there isn’t a team that overachieved their way to a mid-90 win season. You could argue a case for Joe Girardi since he led the undisputed best regular season team (NYA, 103-59) but, under the “managers have the ability to do far more harm than good*” theory, he just had to properly utilize the bullpen and basically put the team on auto-pilot into the playoffs. Mike Scioscia (ANA, 97-65) was the other manager I considered but the Angels play in baseball’s only four team division and their roster is quite a bit better than the Twins. He had a much easier path to 1st place. Gardenhire gets bonus points for having to work with a Bill Smith built team dealt some key injuries that left them with only 1.5 decent starting pitchers and 4 holes in the lineup (2B, 3B, SS, LF). That they turned around what was a 5.5 game deficit on September 14th (more a case of them surging than a more talented Detroit falling apart) without their 3rd best hitter available makes for a nice narrative, too. And who didn’t love the one game, extra innings playoff game?

* See: ALCS, 2009

NL Manager of the Year

Jim Tracy, COL, 74-42 (90-72 overall), 2nd in the NL West: This one seems like a no-brainer. Tracy inherited an 18-28 team from Clint Hurdle in late May and rode a non-descript staff beyond Ubaldo Jimenez to a .638 win percentage over the last four months. Credit Tracy with making the tough decision to play better though unproven youngsters (Stewart, Fowler, Gonzalez) over veterans (Atkins, Spillborghs) and getting the most out of a lineup playing without it’s best hitter from the prior year. The only other candidate here is Tony LaRussa (SLN, 91-71) but you’d probably have to cut that trophy into thirds and give pieces to Dave Duncan and Albert Pujols as well. Maybe 4ths so LaRussa and his massive ego can each have their own piece. Jim Tracy it is, probably in a landslide. Easiest call of the day.

(Side note: Colorado’s top five starters (by GS) started all but 7 of the team’s games. Atlanta was 2nd with 16 games started outside their top five. The league average was 35. That’s a pretty amazing run of in-season health (before de la Rosa’s rotation killing injury heading into the playoffs). And, considering presumed #1 starter Jeff Francis missed the entire year and that Jason Marquis was the Rockies’ 5th best option, it’s more of a dismissible “wow” number than an indication of luck.)

AL Rookie of the Year

1. Gordon Beckham, 3B, CHA: 430 PA, .270/.347/.460, 14 HRs, 7 SB
2. Brett Anderson, SP, OAK: 175.3 IP, 4.06 ERA, 20.4 SO%, 3.2 SO/FP, 52.1 GB%
3. Elvis Andrus, SS, TEX: 541 PA, .267/.329/.373, 6 HR, 33 SB
4. Andrew Bailey, RP, OAK: 83.3 IP, 1.84 ERA, 28.1 SO%, 3.6 SO/FP, 42.3 GB%
5. Rick Porcello, SP, DET: 170.7 IP, 3.95 ERA, 12.4 SO%, 1.6 SO/FP, 55.4 GB%

I guess I should start by noting I’m somewhere between Keith Law (factoring in future projected impact) and most of the awards voters (numbers determine the winner, although we aren’t looking at the same numbers). I think if voters factor in expectations too much, the RoY will simply end up going to the most highly touted prospect to get a lot of playing time in the majors that year. On the other hand, there is something to be said for a rookie getting a full season’s worth of playing time, especially at a high spectrum position, even if his stats are inferior to a 2nd half callup who has three good months.

It was a pretty soft year in the American League as far as impact rookies go. The presumptive RoY favorites and the three rookies who should, along with the players listed above minus Bailey and probably Niemann, headline an eventually well regarded AL Class of 2009, all struggled. David Price battled bad command leading to a decent but unspectacular season and Matt Wieters and Travis Snider both looked lost at times, striking out far too often while failing to put up the numbers projected for them. Snider did flash a bit more of his power potential than Wieters did but didn’t benefit from the same hit luck, giving him a far less impressive slash-line at year’s end. Given that Snider will be only 22 next season and Wieters was playing his 2nd year of professional ball, the expectations for the two don’t have to be downgraded.

In the end, I favored Beckham’s ability to put up a solid offensive season while moving from SS to 3B at the major league level (and it’s tough to overstate how impressive that is. While he should play up the middle going forward to maximize his value, his versatility could come in handy down the line if Chicago deals with injuries or a positional glut/scarcity.

Anderson was a close second and the only other guy I considered for the top slot. While his ERA was slightly higher than Porcello and posted in an easier home park, his peripherals indicate he would have likely put up the best year overall assuming neutral defense/park. With the innings and ERAs as close as they were, his ability to strikeout hitters at an above league average rate and keep more than half of the balls in play on the ground gives him the nod over the other two.

Andrus was the toughest to rank. His offensive performance wasn’t bad (he was basically Alexei Ramirez with more triples and less homeruns) but what earns him 3rd place was the stellar defense he put up at SS. He ranked 4th in the majors in SS UZR (3rd among full-time starters) and, if he only makes minor strides at the plate, he could still have a very valuable, Omar Vizquel-esque career.

Bailey is sort of the anti-Law theory pick here. While he had a great season across the board, nothing in his minor league stats indicated this sort of season was coming and he nearly halved his free pass rate from AAA to the majors. He should be a useful, high strikeout reliever going forward but the level of dominance he displayed in 2009 will likely be his high water mark. He could easily win the actual award if voters go strictly with the most dominant performance, but he’s a reliever and relievers always have the easiest path to seasons that are statistically better than the positional average. Much like I’m not sure I could justify voting for a reliever for Cy Young, I’m not sure I could vote for a reliever over a full-time player for RoY.

Porcello and Jeff Niemann (SP,TBA) put up very similar seasons in terms of results, though no one expects that to continue as their careers progress and I gave Porcello the nod based on future projection. Niemann’s season is much more indicative of the type of pitcher he is; at some point in the future, Tampa Bay will have to determine if he’ll settle into the back-end of their rotation or become a high-leverage reliever. (Usually this is an easy call and you take the starter, but with Shields and Garza locked into spots, Price expected to get every chance to succeed and Wade Davis coming soon, maximum value may be with Niemann in the pen, possibly even closing.) Porcello, on the other hand, is a future ace, at worst #2 starter, and a solid example of why you can’t project a player based on statistics alone. On paper, he’s a Chien-Ming Wang clone; low strikeouts despite solid velocity, high groundball rate, exceptionally dependent on his defense. Watching him pitch, however, you easily envision what he should one day become. Much like Justin Verlander, there almost seems to be a conscious effort to harness his stuff and teach him to work efficiently rather than dominantly right out of the gates. When unleashed, as he was against Minnesota in Detroit’s eventual Game 163 loss (8 SOs in 5 2/3 IP), he showed the ability to overpower hitters. Still not 22 years old, he has stardom ahead.

NL Rookie of the Year

1. Andrew McCutchen, CF, PIT: 493 PA, .286/.365/.471, 12 HR, 22 SB
2. Tommy Hanson, SP, ATL: 127.7 IP, 2.89 ERA, 22.2 SO%, 2.3 SO/FP, 40.8 GB%
3. J.A. Happ, SP, PHI: 166.0 IP, 2.93 ERA, 17.4 SO%, 2.0 SO/FP, 40.1 GB%
4. Randy Wells, SP, CHN: 165.3 IP, 3.05 ERA, 15.0 SO%, 2.0 SO/FP, 49.4 GB%
5. Colby Rasmus, CF, SLN: 520 PA, .251/.307/.407, 16 HR, 3 SB

It took me all of about three seconds to decide that Andrew McCutchen should have the top spot here. Called up after the trade of Nate McLouth to Atlanta, McCutchen finally gave Pittsburgh a franchise-type player for the Pirate fan base to get excited about. I didn’t do a total review to fully C my A on this next comment, but I think it’s safe to label McCutchen the best homegrown Pirate prospect since Barry Bonds. Granted, he doesn’t have Bonds’ ceiling, no one does, but best team prospect in 20+ years is still high praise. If he puts up his 2009 line consistently for a decade, he’s an asset. If he develops into a 25 HR guy, he’s a stud.
(Jason Kendall merit’s a mention here, if only because it’s easy to forget just how awesome Kendall was when he was younger. Contrary to popular belief, the ankle injury isn’t really what derailed his career, he was right back on track the next season. His power just never developed and actually disappeared around age 28 rendering Kendall a batting average dependent, hollow OBP guy rather than the rare catcher who could consistently fill all three slash categories. Speculation as to why this happened is for others to do. I’ll just imply it. (And don’t bother looking it up, Brian Giles came from Cleveland. Even played in the majors for them for a couple seasons.))

The three pitchers were tough to rank although only Happ and Hanson appear to be getting mentioned as contenders for the top spot. That’s a bit tough for me to figure out given how similar Happ and Wells were this season. Both posted double digit wins and strong (though peripheral defying) ERAs in almost the exact same number of innings. Both should regress next year and neither projects as more than an NL #3 or, more likely a #4/#5 starter down the road. Hanson, on the other hand, had greatness expected of him and delivered. Had Atlanta called him up earlier in the season, he probably wins the RoY going away. His 22.2% strikeout percentage was 13th in the NL among pitchers over 120 IPs and he did so while maintaining a better than league average free pass rate. Since the window for being a rookie pitcher is anywhere from 50 to 200 innings, there’s a little more leeway given to a pitcher having a better, more sustainable performance even if it comes in fewer starts. For that reason, I’m ranking Hanson 2nd, Happ 3rd (bonus points for ballpark and better projectability) with Wells 4th with a bigger gap between Hanson and Happ than Happ and Wells.

(Happ is actually a pretty interesting case. He got a ton of press when the Phillies were rumored to not be willing to include him in a Roy Halladay trade (the wisdom of declaring a 26 (now 27) year old rookie whose future is at the back of the rotation or the bullpen untouchable is another debate for another day, especially since it did all work out in the end) and there’s a good chance voters give him the award based on his ERA, win percentage and the fact that he pitched on a playoff team. However, I’d think if anything you need to downtick his numbers just a little since he worked out of the pen for part of the season. While it wasn’t a huge percentage of his innings (13%), he did have the matchup advantage more often than Hanson or Wells and their ERAs were close enough that it probably affected the final numbers. Just a thought.)

5th place is definitely up for debate but it’s sort of a subtle nod to the future, both of Rasmus and of defensive statistical analysis. Easy (though strictly offensive) arguments can be made for Chris Coghlan (LF, FLO) or Garrett Jones (RF/1B, PIT) but both have their drawbacks. Coghlan put up a very strong slash-line (including .390 OBP in 565 PAs) but it’s tough to ignore that he did so with an extremely high BABIP, without much power and while playing bad defense at a low spectrum position. Jones floated between two positions in the 2nd half for Pittsburgh and put up an undeniably huge slash-line. Still, he only had 358 PAs on the year and I’m much more comfortable saying the guy had a tremendous first month followed by two good months rather than extrapolate his power numbers and say he was a 40 HR guy had he been a starter on Opening Day. So, again, a little projection and some assumptions involved. Short term, Jones should settle in as the strong side of a Pittsburgh platoon until a better option comes along. Given that we’re talking about Pittsburgh here … maybe get used to him. And maybe I’ll be wrong and he’ll be a steady power source for the next few years.

Honestly, a lot of this comes down to my love for Rasmus and thus my desire to make a strong argument for him. While his hitting line leaves a bit to be desired, the only underlying issue was his lack of walks. His BABIP should only go up from .282 (since his LD% was fine at 19.6%) and he struck out a reasonable 95 times. Where he really made his contribution was on defense, solidifying a shaky St. Louis OF defense and posting the 4th highest UZR among starting CFs in baseball. Much like Andrus in the AL, Rasmus’ season is more impressive than strict offensive numbers indicate. A full time, stellar defensive 23 year old CF on a division winner is worthy of atleast a 5th place vote here.

(As a bit of an aside, a couple years from now there’s a chance that almost half the National League teams will employ everyday CFs whose rookie season was 2009. Rasmus, McCutchen, Dexter Fowler (COL) and Cameron Maybin ( FLO) are near locks, Drew Stubbs (CIN) and Jordan Schafer (ATL) are better than even bets and Fernando Martinez (NYN) debuted (though still qualifies as a rookie for 2010 after just missing the PA cutoff) and should move back to CF when Beltran exits. When is the last time something like that happened?)

Debate the picks inside the Swamp. Next up, AL Cy Young …