Sportsfrog.com

Not from me. From swamp stalwart UNC Boy. And it’s a whopper. First part now, next part tomorrow. Enjoy:

ACC Basketball Predictions for 2009-10:

1. North Carolina (12-4)
2. Clemson (11-5)
3. Duke (11-5)
4. Maryland (10-6)
5. Georgia Tech (9-7)
6. Wake Forest (9-7)
7. Boston College (8-8)
8. Florida State (8-8)
9. Virginia Tech (7-9)
10. Miami (6-10)
11. Virginia (5-11)
12. NC State (2-14)

Breaking down the teams:

1. North Carolina – Gone are four core players from the National Championship team (Tyler Hansbrough, Ty Lawson, Wayne Ellington, and Danny Green – plus Bobby Frasor), but Roy Williams’ continual success in recruiting over the past couple of seasons have the Tarheels basically on a slight overhaul rather than rebuilding.

Deon Thompson is the only regular starter to return, but plenty of experience is there to back him up. Sophomores Ed Davis and Ty Zeller are looking to replace the role of Hansbrough and freshman John Henson is going to be the “Diaper Dandy” of the squad and arguably a prime candidate for ACC and National Freshman of the Year. The backcourt is a serious question. Marcus Ginyard returns after a medical redshirt and is expected to be the guy handling that duty; but to replace Lawson will fall on the hands of Larry Drew II and will be backed up by freshman Dexter Strickland.

Outlook: The Tarheels have a semi-brutal non-conference schedule this season before league play starts. They have Cal in the Coaches v. Cancer tournament and then either Syracuse or Ohio State in the second game. After that, three of the next four are projected top-five teams (Michigan State, @ Kentucky, and @ Texas at the Cowboys’ new stadium). The ACC is expected to be slightly better this season competitively. I have them losing four games in the conference this year (@ Clemson, @ Maryland, @ Duke, and one game at home – take your pick – possibly Georgia Tech). 12-4 is not far-fetched but they could slide down easily to 10-6. Also, a Final Four is not out of the question again for the Heels.

2. Clemson – Oliver Purnell always has the Tigers start well and then falter toward tournament time. Clemson lost forward Raymond Sykes and point guard KC Rivers to graduation, but the Tigers have reloaded well. Senior Trevor Booker will provide well under the boards and his younger brother Devin, a freshman this year, will help him off the bench. David Potter and Karolis Petrukonis are expected to replace Sykes. Jerai Grant also will be expecting to start in the frontcourt. The backcourt still has Demontez Stitt as their three-point catalyst, but the point guard will be fought for by sophomore Andre Young, with Zavier Anderson coming off the bench.

Outlook: Clemson is picked to finish at 11-5. Their season looks to be replicate of the past few seasons. They have a relatively favorable non-conference schedule, with a trip to Anaheim for the 76 Classic against Texas A&M, possibly West Virginia in the next round, and either Minnesota, UCLA, or Butler. After that, all they have is a very good Illinois team and a expected-to-be improved South Carolina. Clemson does have two matchups with Duke, Georgia Tech, and Florida State which they could split these in home-and-home contests. Clemson is definitely looking at 22-7 season, good enough for a top four or five seed in the NCAA’s.

3. Duke – It’s hard to imagine that Mike Krzyzewski is in his 30th season in Durham. Duke is facing a test that hasn’t been in their ammo for the first time since the mid 1990’s – a decent backcourt in terms of shooting. With Gerald Henderson gone to the NBA and Greg Paulus exhausting his eligibility but still playing football at the ‘Cuse, those positions are going to be a work in progress.

Junior Kyle Singler is the leading candidate this year for ACC Player of the Year and will benefit with the help of senior leadership from Lance Thomas. Senior Brian Zoubek rounds out the frontcourt, but also look for Miles Plumlee to get some valuable time off the bench. Jon Scheyer is expected to earn first-team All-ACC as he returns for his senior year. The point guard will have to come from Nolan Smith as he did a great job in the latter stages of the 2009 season.

Outlook: Look for the senior leadership to be the reason Duke finishes in the top three in the league. The Blue Devils are the top seed in this year’s NIT Tip-Off Classic, which has a stacked field that follows (UConn, LSU, Arizona State, and Western Kentucky). They have a road trip to Wisconsin in the ACC/Big 10 Challenge afterwards, plus a game against Gonzaga at New York, and a mid-season out of conference game at Georgetown. Duke plays UNC twice, as well as Clemson and Maryland, which makes their league schedule rated the toughest. This could be the first time Duke will win in five years at home to the rival Tarheels when they play on Saturday, March 6. If the backcourt plays better than what many observers expect to see, this team could be your 2010 regular season champions.

4. Maryland – The Terrapins surprised their way back to tournament consideration after wins over North Carolina and going deep in the ACC Tournament last season. The Terps only lost Dave Neal, but they are completely loaded with experience behind them.

Coach Gary Williams looks to have Maryland back on the map for the first time since his 2002 team won the NCAA title. Returning are their shooting specialist Greivis Vasquez, their power forward Landon Milbourne, and point guard Eric Hayes, all seniors. Cliff Tucker will get some more playing time as he is expected to start in the SF position, and freshman James Padgett is expected to provide some work underneath the boards this season.

Outlook: For Maryland to earn one of the four first-round byes in the ACC Tournament, they need to step it up and beat the elite with two games against Duke and Clemson. Their non-conference schedule looks rather soft outside of the Maui Invitational with the only real test game against Villanova in Washington on December 6. If the Terps can finish with at least 10 wins in the league as I am projecting and then duplicate last year’s run in the ACC Tournament, they have a good shot at a very high two- or three-seed in the NCAA Tournament.

5. Georgia Tech – The overall roller coaster of Paul Hewitt’s tenure at Atlanta is about to take an upward crawl. From a team that finished dead last in the league at 2-14 and a paltry 12-19 overall record, the Yellow Jackets have a brighter outlook for the 2009-10 season.

The team will be led by potential ACC Freshman of the Year and National Freshman of the Year contender Derrick Favors. Favors will be playing alongside potential first-team All-ACC Gani Lawai and senior leader Zach Peacock on the frontline, which could be the most talented in the conference. With the three-point and outside production from Iman Shumpert and freshman Glen Rice, Jr., Georgia Tech will be loaded with complete talent for the next couple of years.

Outlook: As you can see, the Jackets are going to be the most-improved team in the league, and possibly the nation. 8-8 is a strong possibility, but I believe with the addition to Favors that they can sneak in a couple of extra victories. They will get an early test this season as they play in the Puerto Rico Tip-Off classic against Dayton and then possibly Villanova. They also have Southern Cal on the schedule. All in all, 12-19 will definitely change over to a 20-win season.

6. Wake Forest – Third year coach Dino Gaudio brings back three productive seniors, despite the losses of Jeff Teague early to the NBA Draft and point guard Harvey Hale due to graduation. Barring injury, the backcourt will be one of the best in the league. LD Williams and Ish Smith are the catalysts of a perimeter-played offense that will have local rookie CJ Harris along the way to back up Smith at the point. The front line is handled by senior Chas McFarland and the shot-blocking ability of Al-Farouq Aminu. This tandem could produce fits for the opposition.

Wake Forest also will have a great amount of depth with junior Gary Clark expected to get some playing time behind Williams and sophomore Tony Woods picking up the slack in the post.

Outlook: Many experts believe the Deacons will slither to an 8-8 record and possibly miss the NCAA mostly due to them believing that they will be collapsing toward the end of the year. While many may think that way, Wake has a great chance this year as their non-conference schedule is pretty manageable. The Deacons start out four out of five against teams that were no better than .500 last year before they tackle at Purdue and then a long roadie to Gonzaga out in the Northwest. After that, the only other prime threat to their non-conference is Xavier, in which they will play the first of ten straight seasons to honor the late head coach of both of those programs Skip Prosser. I expect the Deacons to go 9-7, win at least 21 games overall and earn another trip to the Dance.