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What’s that? Fuck yes, I said Southern Conference preview. And once you read this two-parter from swamper UNC Boy, you won’t be sleeping on Western Carolina. Well, you might. But at least when you seen them as a #15 seed next March, you might think, hey, Western Carolina! At any rate, part I of the Southern Conference preview per UNC:

SoCon Basketball Predictions for 2009-10:

North
1. Western Carolina
2. Appalachian State
3. Samford
4. Chattanooga
5. Elon
6. UNC Greensboro

1. Western Carolina – Head coach Larry Hunter has his Catamounts in position to challenge the likes of College of Charleston and Davidson for supremacy of the conference and against their heated rival Appalachian State in the North Division this year. They only lost one senior last year and this team is loaded with five seniors and four juniors leading the way.

Their leadership will be coming from redshirt sophomore Harouna Mutombo, who led the team with nearly 14.5 points per game and was the team’s leading scorer 13 times last season. Also in the backcourt is senior Brigham Waginger, who is their ball carrier that led the team last season with 102 assists. The Cats will employ a three-guard offense as senior Brandon Giles, 13.2 ppg last year, can also play the 3 position on the floor. Their frontcourt is led by junior Richie Gordon, their tallest player at 6′9″ and averaged 4.5 rpg, and seniors Jake Robinson and Adrian Gailliard, will basically platoon for the starter’s position each outing.

Outlook: Western’s key will be the three-guard play that should have more teams having to play the perimeter defense. Forget the fact that they will start 1-0 because they open at Texas in the O’Reilly CBE Classic. However, they will also have their hands full in the non-conference as they host Duquesne, travel to Bradley and at Louisville and Clemson later this year. When they get to conference play, they start out with Wofford and Furman and hit Georgia Southern, UNC Greensboro, and Elon. They should be no worse than 4-1 through these games when they get to the meat part of the first half as they travel to Davidson, ASU, and host Charleston. At the end of the season, I should have WCU at 12-6 in the conference and get the top seed in the North Division in the SoCon Tournament.

2. Appalachian State – Buzz Peterson is back for a second stint in the High Country, leaving his post in 2000 after five seasons and a 79-39 record which included a SoCon conference title and an NCAA automatic bid in 2000. Like Western Carolina, this team will be loaded with upperclassmen as 11 of their 16 players on the roster are seniors and juniors.

The Mountaineers will be relying on the backcourt tandem of seniors Kellen Brand and Donald Sims. Brand is Appalachian’s leader with nearly 15 ppg. Sims averages 13.7 ppg and is deadly from the three-point range as he made just over 40% last season. He also is the team’s go-to guy from the charity stripe as he made 86% of his FTs. Coming off the bench is Ryann Abraham who averaged three assists per game and between him and Sims, they should combine for at least seven per game. On the frontcourt, junior Isaac Butts led the team last year at 8.5 rpg, while senior PF Josh Hunter is also challenging the opposition with 7.2 rpg. Also seeing time this season will be senior forward Tyler Webb, likely to pick up the slack of both Hunter and Butts and also expect some more time for sophomore F/C Andre Williamson, who was second on the team with 32 blocks in 28 games last season (Butts’ had 39 in 31 games).

Outlook: Appalachian’s conference schedule starts out favorable against Furman and Wofford and then after The Citadel, they get Elon, UNC Greensboro, and Georgia Southern. By the time they get to Western Carolina, they should be 5-1 or 4-2 and they will host the first of two meetings, in which it spans 14 days between the two meetings. They only get Davidson and Charleston once each this year, which could help avoid a couple of losses. Appalachian is looking to be 11-7 in conference play. Their non-conference schedule will have five teams from last year’s NCAA Tournament (four of them on the road) – at East Tennessee, at Louisville, home to Morgan State, and at Robert Morris and Dayton. Also in the schedule is Arkansas and the Mounties should be able to play in the Bracket Busters game in February.

3. Samford – Jimmy Tillette is in his 12th season at Samford and has his team primed to do better than their 14-16 record from a season ago. Samford has a very young team coming to the 2009-10 campaign with only two returning seniors.

The Bulldogs will employ a balanced attack from their senior guard Trey Montgomery, who averaged 10 per game last year. Also returning is 6′6″ senior forward Bryan Friday, who should start this season after averaging over 3 rpg. Also getting playing time this year is PG Josh Bedwell, who will replace Travis Peterson, and junior center Andy King and sophomore center Matt Friday, Bryan’s brother, will likely jump to starter this season after earning six starts last season.

Outlook: Samford should finish 9-9 in the North Division on account of playing two games with College of Charleston and may be going 1-3 vs. Appalachian and Western Carolina, plus they have to play at Davidson. Their non-conference will feature two games in the state of Texas in November (@Texas A&M and @Texas Tech), plus a game at Alabama. This youth movement will get destroyed in these games, so I expect them to be hovering around .500 for the overall season.

4. Chattanooga – Last year’s tournament champions shocked the world in getting into the field of 65 with a 16-15 record. Don’t expect another miracle from the Mocs as they are practically reloading with just one senior and team mostly dominated by sophomores.

Sixth year head coach John Shulman lost five starters from last year’s squad, meaning he will have to rely on inexperience to step it up. Ty Patterson will start at the two-guard position after starting nine games last year and is the only player on this year’s squad to average over 20 minutes per game. Starting at the point will be sophomore Jasper Williams, who provided 11.7 minutes off the bench last season. The front line will be led by 7′1″ center Jeremy Saffore, with Chris Early and JUCO transfer DeAntre Jefferson pulling in the weight for the Mocs.

Outlook: Among the cast of characters on Chattanooga’s non-conference schedule include East Tennessee, at Richmond, at Missouri, hosting Georgia Tech and at Murray State. Because of their NCAA appearance last season, look for them likely in the Bracket Buster game in February. The conference lineup starts out strong with the likes of Elon and UNC Greensboro at home, plus College of Charleston. They also travel to Charleston and they get Davidson at home. I see 7-11 from them in the league, but the non-conference tilt will once again have them almost repeating their performance from last season.

5. Elon – The Phoenix are continuing their rebuilding project, as well as bringing in a whole new coaching staff. Elon has tabbed Matt Matheny as their head coach after he spent ten seasons as an assistant to Bob McKillop at Davidson. Elon lost its two main scorers due to graduation, plus their leading rebounder from a team looking to improve its 11-20 record of a year ago.

Matheny will be relying on the experience of senior guard Devan Carter, who started 23 games last season and averaged seven per game on the floor, and senior forward Adam Constantine, who is the team’s returning leader in rebounds from a year ago at five per game. Helping out Carter in the backcourt will be junior Chris Long, who averaged 7.2 per game and made barely over 40% of his three-pointers out of 117 attempts last season. Also looking to bomb from outside is 6′6″ senior forward TJ Douglas, who made 42 of 118 from behind the arc. Also appearing to start is sophomore guard Josh Bonney, who started 19 games last year. Others with playing time expected this season will come from sophomore guard Terrance Birdette and junior forward Scott Grable, returning after sitting out last season to ACL surgery.

Outlook: In league play, aside from the mandatory home-and-home against their divisional opponents Western Carolina and Appalachian State, the Phoenix also have two games with South Division foes Furman and Wofford, expected to finish near the bottom in their division, and play home to Davidson. Outside the league, they have a tough task in playing Charlotte in the NIT Tip-Off Classic. If they should luck themselves into a win, then they will likely play Duke in the second round. After that, they have road games to Wake Forest and NC State back-to-back and then a trip to Ohio before New Year’s. Elon is looking at a 7-11 season in the league and around 14 wins for the overall.

6. UNC Greensboro – Mike Dement returns a wealth of upperclassmen from a 5-25 team and a 4-16 league season of a year ago. UNCG plans to rebound well in the conference, but will have a bumpy road outside of league play that could be in the top 50 on non-conference strength of schedule this season.

Returning are their top scorers in double digits on average, senior forward Ben Stywall at 11.7 per contest and 8.4 rebounds on top and senior shooting guard Mikko Koivisto, the team’s leader at 12.4 and almost automatic from the charity stripe at 89%. Along side Koivisto is senior Kendall Toney, contributing eight points per game. Senior forward Pete Brown and senior guard Montel Smith also will see action on this senior-laden Spartan ball club, as well as redshirt sophomore forward DeAngelo Jackson, who should get a few more minutes off the bench.

Outlook: UNC Greensboro will likely finish 6-12 in the SoCon, with home-and-home dates with Appalachian State, Western Carolina, and toss up games with Wofford, Furman, and I-40 rival Elon. The Spartans spent the last twenty seasons at Fleming Gym, and has moved their home games beginning this season about a mile away at the 23,000-seat Greensboro Coliseum (configured to about 10,000 for their games with the drapes in the upper section being lowered). Out of conference, they have a handful as they start the season against three ACC opponents (@Duke, @Virginia Tech, and home to Clemson). In December, they face three more ACC foes at the Coliseum against Wake Forest, NC State, and Maryland in order. They will also play Princeton at the Coliseum, as well as MAC Tournament champion Akron and Richmond on the road. Overall, the Spartans will have difficulty getting to 12 wins with this overload.