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It seemed to make sense to post this closer to the actual award since people probably don’t care about the Cy Young beyond the day it’s announced. So …

1. Zack Greinke, SP, KCA: 16-8, 229.3 IP, 2.16 ERA, 26.4% SO%, 4.4 SO/FP
2. Felix Hernandez, SP, SEA: 19-5, 238.7 IP, 2.49 ERA, 22.2% SO%, 2.7 SO/FP
3. Roy Halladay, SP, TOR: 17-10, 239.0 IP, 2.79 ERA, 21.6% SO%, 5.2 SO/FP
4. Justin Verlander, SP, DET: 19-9, 240.0 IP, 3.45 ERA, 27.4% SO%, 3.9 SO/FP
5. Jon Lester, SP, BOS: 15-8, 203.3 IP, 3.41 ERA, 26.7% SO%, 3.4 SO/FP
6. CC Sabathia, SP, NYA: 19-8, 230.0 IP, 3.37 ERA, 21.0% SO%, 2.6 SO/FP
7. Jered Weaver, SP, ANA: 16-8, 211.0 IP, 3.75 ERA, 19.7% SO%, 2.5 SO/FP
8. Josh Beckett, SP, BOS: 17-6, 212.3 IP, 3.86 ERA, 22.5% SO%, 3.2 SO/FP
9. John Danks, SP, CHA: 13-11, 200.3 IP, 3.77 ERA, 17.8% SO%, 1.9 SO/FP
10. Mariano Rivera, RP, NYA: 44 SV, 66.3 IP, 1.76 ERA, 28.0% SO%, 5.5 SO/FP

Zack Greinke posted the best 200 inning ERA of any AL pitcher since Pedro Martinez was in his prime (1.72 in 2000). While there is always an element of luck with a statistical outlier season like Greinke’s, it’s worth noting that he pitched in a near neutral home park in front of the league’s least efficient defense (Royals fielders converted just 67.5% of balls in play into outs versus an AL average of 70.0%). While much has been made of his relatively easy schedule, it has been overblown. Of the nine starters above, Greinke’s opponents’ OBP and SLG ranked 7th with both Sabathia and Danks facing hitters ranked lower in those categories. (I have yet to hear one baseball analyst mention Sabathia’s unchallenging 2009.) Any focus on strength of schedule beyond notation is simply someone’s way of justifying their vote for a less deserving pitcher.

(As an aside, why does Greinke’s triumph over depression and social anxiety get only a fraction of the praise and attention received by Josh Hamilton during his comeback from drug addiction? Not that Hamilton isn’t a compelling story, but his problems were atleast partially self-inflicted whereas Greinke’s are not. Is it the stigma of mental health issues? The fact that Greinke doesn’t seem as willing to accept his role as the hero of the story? Something else entirely? One would think a comeback of this magnitude, culminating with a Cy Young Award, would be a far bigger story than Hamilton coming back to not win a homerun hitting contest.)

If there is a drawback to Greinke’s breakout season, it’s that he overshadowed an almost equally brilliant performance by Felix Hernandez. Excepting Greinke, Hernandez’s 2.49 ERA was the best for an American League starter since the 2003 season. While Hernandez did get an assist from a spectacular Mariner defense and a friendly home park, his combination of strikeouts and induced ground-balls would have led to success regardless of environment. In nearly any other season, Hernandez brings home some hardware for his efforts but he’ll have to settle for 2nd place in 2009.

Roy Halladay again put up huge numbers in the toughest division of the toughest league. He has now pitched a minimum of 220 innings with an ERA+ of atleast 120 for the last four seasons in Toronto. The fact that he hasn’t won a Cy Young since 2003 (and hasn’t deserved one) is one of the better cases for downplaying single winner awards when discussing a player’s legacy. Looking forward, two of Halladay’s top retired comps at Baseball Reference are Mike Mussina and Jimmy Key and they seem to serve as guidelines to his best case and worst case scenarios. If Halladay holds up physically and maintains his command as his stuff diminishes, his career could perfectly parallel Mussina’s as a pitcher who retained his value into his late 30s. If Halladay’s shoulder issues of the past recur or if minor injuries like this year’s strained groin become more frequent, he could see the remainder of his career mirror Key’s frustrating mix of declining effectiveness and DL stints. How much a team is willing to bet on the former will be the subject of much debate, starting at the winter meetings and not ending until Halladay signs a $100MM+ contract.

After putting a disappointing 2008 behind him, Justin Verlander fulfilled even the loftiest of expectations held for him in 2009. His combination of high strikeout totals with a high flyball rate is actually reminiscent of a right-handed Johan Santana but without Santana’s HR rates. This is likely a combination of both Comerica’s tendency to depress HR totals and Verlander’s tremendous raw stuff, which allows him to make mistakes up in the zone that aren’t punished. Unless his 240 innings have an effect on him in 2010, more of the same should be expected out of Verlander going forward.

The last of the AL’s four dominant under 27 starters is Jon Lester and it’s somewhat shocking that a pitcher who has survived cancer and pitches for Boston is actually underrated. While I doubt Lester would get many (or possibly any) votes in a poll of which pitcher to start a team with, he wouldn’t be a bad choice. He was 2nd behind only Verlander in strikeout percentage among AL starters, safely better than league average in both ground ball and free pass rates and throws left-handed. Heading into his age 26 season with low mileage, he’s as good of a bet as any to succeed for the next 5-10 years.

Thankfully, CC Sabathia didn’t pick up his 20th win in his final start of the season. If there’s one thing voters traditionally lean on to make terrible decisions, it’s nice, round numbers. Not to say that Sabathia was a disappointment in New York; after his typically slow April, Sabathia settled in with a 3.17 ERA and a better than 3.0 SO/FP from May on out. While his workload is cause for some concern (779 regular and postseason innings over the last three seasons), Sabathia seems intent on proving himself a durability outlier.

Jered Weaver didn’t get much attention this season but he was the real ace of the Angels rotation, posting a better ERA than John Lackey in 35 more innings. His peripherals suggest this season (and not 2008 when he had a 4.33 ERA) will be the outlier but even with some regression, Weaver would be a solid #2 on most staffs.

Josh Beckett didn’t perform as well as his 17-6 record or as poorly as his 4.20 runs per game would indicate. Even in an inconsistent, decent-relative-to-self season, he provides plenty of value. Beckett, not Halladay or Cliff Lee, might be the most valuable free agent after the 2010 season. While his overall performance falls a bit short of Halladay’s long run and Lee’s last two seasons, Beckett is three years younger than Halladay and has a better track record of success than Lee. Heading into 2011, Beckett very well may be the best bet for fulfilling the expectations that come with a long term deal.

John Danks is a weird case. His decent stuff and league average strikeout, free pass and ground ball rates would indicate a guy whose value is lies more in innings volume than run prevention but for two straight years he’s had an ERA under 3.80. Danks sits near the top of the list of guys whose projected value could increase if Hit f/x shows that certain pitchers can consistently induce poor contact from hitters. For now, let’s call him a poor man’s Cliff Lee (and give Don Cooper his due as a reclamation rival to Dave Duncan).

I wouldn’t really rank Mariano Rivera as the 10th most valuable pitcher in the AL last year since 200 good innings are more valuable than 75 great innings (and since Andrew Bailey had a better season anyway), but I’m putting him here as a nod to lifetime achievement. Rivera has shown a level of consistent dominance surpassing any reliever before him and, given the benefit of making this list after watching the playoffs, I just feel better finishing with him than Edwin Jackson. The arguments that Jackson was lucky in the first half and that he won’t pitch to that level again are legitimate and probably correct, but it doesn’t take away from his overall contributions in 2009. Without Jackson’s 214 innings of sub-4.00 ERA work, Detroit is probably eliminated by the end of September, not playing in a one game playoff.

Coming Thursday, the NL Cy Young award …