Sportsfrog.com

Two teams remain standing as the Big East Tournament reaches its apex. While they are two teams that were not expected to be here, the presence of neither team is truly a surprise. Both Georgetown and West Virginia started the season ranked in the preseason top 25 and remained throughout the campaign. Both squads had NCAA Tournament bids sewn up at the end of the regular season, but both have also taken advantage of the opportunity to make their case for preferential seeding, not to mention staked their claim for a Big East title.

West Virginia is yet to win a Big East championship in their 15th year in the conference. They entered the conference tournament with a slim chance of securing the fourth #1 seed in the big dance, but so far, have held up their own end by defeating Cincinnati and Notre Dame. While neither is the marquee team they were supposed to face in the tournament (Louisville and Pittsburgh were the teams expected to advance by seeding), the Mountaineers claimed their 25th and 26th wins and kept that dream of a one-seed alive. With one of the highest strength of schedule rankings and a top-5 RPI, a stumble by Duke and a WVU win could equal that final #1 seed. After an inconsistent season, Georgetown has put all the pieces together and rattled off three impressive wins in a row. Victories over South Florida, Syracuse, and Marquette have likely propelled the Hoyas into a #5 seed in the NCAAs and a win over West Virginia would likely give them a #4 seed and the preferential game locations that accompany it. With things clicking this well for Georgetown, their eighth Big East title could earn them some light travel that could help them reach their third Sweet 16 in five years.

Big East Championship – #8 Georgetown (23-9) vs. #3 West Virginia (26-6)
West Virginia took down the regular season tilt less than two weeks ago in Morgantown, 81-68. Da’Sean Butler was excellent in his final home game as a Mountaineer, topping the team with 22 points, six rebounds, and six assists as WVU used first half runs of 13-3 and 10-1 to take a stranglehold on the contest. West Virginia, who also scored the first ten points after the break for a 27-point lead barely three minutes into the second half, got major contributions from Devin Ebanks (15 points) and Kevin Jones (14). Georgetown, who was without Austin Freeman, undermined their chances by committing 20 turnovers in the contest while only squeezing eight out of the Mountaineers. The only Hoyas in double figures were Greg Monroe, who had nine rebounds to go with his 22 points, and Chris Wright, who scored 21.

KEYS FOR THE CHAMPIONSHIP GAME:
Can anyone slow down Greg Monroe? The Hoyas’ big man has been the best player in the tournament, posting 18.0 points, 10.3 rebounds, 5.3 assists, and 1.7 blocks per game thus far while showing a consistent level of aggression that seems almost out of character for him. He has been a dominant force in wins over Syracuse and Marquette and West Virginia not only lacks a true center, but also anyone in their regular rotation who can offer both height and bulk to match up with him. The Mountaineers best hope is that Monroe will be forced to guard one of their three best players, likely Devin Ebanks or Kevin Jones and they can use this matchup to drive to get the big man in foul trouble. If Monroe is able to play big minutes, Georgetown has a great chance.

Can anyone slow down Da’Sean Butler? The Butler has done it for the Mountaineers in both their games, leading the team in scoring at 19.5 points per game and burying 57.7 percent of his field goals in the tournament. He’s also been timely, banking home a buzzer-beater to knock out Cincinnati and demanding the ball for all the big possessions in the win over Notre Dame. The swingman has been held to single digits in scoring four times this season and never wrote less than “eight” next to his name in the scorebook. Likely to draw this assignment for the Hoyas is Austin Freeman, who at 6’3”, will be giving up four inches to the Mountaineers’ top scorer and team leader. Butler’s versatile offensive game may lead to him taking Freeman into the post to exploit his length.

Whose supporting cast will play better? Chris Wright and Jason Clark have been marvelous in the tourney and Austin Freeman has rebounded with a pair of good games. Wright has hit over 50 percent of his shots in the three games after closing the regular season on a 27-for-74 (36.5 percent) slide and is averaging 19 points and four assists per contest. Clark, who averaged 10.8 points per game during the season, has scored 16.0 points per game at the Garden and knocked down 9-of-17 from beyond the arc. Freeman rebounded from a poor game against South Florida to score 30 in the last two games. West Virginia offers three players who averaged double figures in scoring on the season, as well, in Kevin Jones, Devin Ebanks, and Darryl “Truck” Bryant. Jones has been solid on offense in the first two BET contests for WVU, reaching double figures in both low-scoring affairs and averaging 13.5 points in those low-scoring games (54 and 53 points have been the winning totals). Ebanks had trouble buying a shot against Cincinnati (3-for-13 from the floor), but still has tallied 18 points in the two games combined. Bryant, however, has been a trouble spot for West Virginia, following a 1-for-10 game against Cincy with an 0-for-2 last night and spent most of the second half on the bench against Notre Dame in favor of the steady Joe Mazzulla, who does not normally offer much offensive punch, but scored eight big points. Mazzulla will need to be ready to go if Bryant is having issues again.

Who will win the battle to establish tempo? Georgetown has shown an ability to get out and run to take advantage of transition opportunities, but those opportunities will be rare against the grinders from West Virginia. That is not necessarily a huge problem for the Hoyas, as they have shown the ability to execute in their half-court in this tournament, getting Greg Monroe into the high post against both man and zone defenses to create opportunities for himself and his mates. The Mountaineers’ slowdown style is more rooted in their ability to bang and wear down opponents in their defensive sets. Their offense is not strictly a walk-it-up unit, but tends to get slowed by their defensive pace and their low scoring thus far (107 points in two games) have been a function of playing two slow-paced teams.

With the way the two teams have played thus far in the tournament, the outcome seems to rely on West Virginia’s defense. Georgetown has made 90-of-172 shots (52.3 percent) in their stay in New York, including 19-of-44 (43.2 percent) from beyond the arc due to taking advantage of transition opportunities that are presented and making the extra pass in halfcourt sets, particularly on backdoor cuts or kickouts to the wings and corners. While the transition opportunities will be easier to take away, the Mountaineers must remain diligent in sticking to their man on defense, call out screens and for help, when needed, and close out hard to the three-point shooters to take away open looks. By uglying up the game, West Virginia can keep it close. However, the Mountaineers simply do not have anyone on their roster who can match up well enough with Greg Monroe to neutralize him. If they cannot get Monroe to the bench due to fouls, West Virginia is done. Look for the Hoyas to pull out a six-point win and Monroe to receive the Big East Tournament MVP award.

Game 1 – #8 Georgetown (22-9) vs. #5 Marquette (22-10)
One way to win is to shoot 69.2 percent from the floor in the second half. Another way to win is to force 17 turnovers. Those two factors combined propelled Georgetown as they avenged a pair of regular season losses to Syracuse by getting a 91-84 win in the first game of the day. The Orange were game, hitting 11-of-20 from downtown, but a 22-4 Hoya run in the middle of the second half turned the fortunes of the game. Chris Wright led the Hoyas with 27 points, while Austin Freeman had 18 and Jason Clark 17. Greg Monroe, however, was the best player on the floor for the winners, as he had 17 points, ten rebounds and seven assists while helping shut down Syracuse’s interior offense. Wes Johnson led the Orange with 24 points and had help from the bench duo of Scoop Jardine and Kris Joseph, who added 19 and 18 points, respectively. Andy Rautins had a double-double of 14 points and ten assists in a losing effort.

Marquette played a back-and-forth game with Villanova in the second quarterfinal and strung together a 17-5 run over six minutes late in the second half to take an eight-point lead with under five minutes to play. The Wildcats stormed back to tie the score twice, but Marquette got a three from Lazar Hayward to take the lead back for good. Three-pointers were the name of the game for the Golden Eagles, as they connected on 11-of-18 from behind the line, including a 5-of-7 effort by Darius Johnson-Odom, who had a game-high 24 points. Hayward backed up Johnson-Odom with 20 points while David Cubillan dropped in 17 points and Jimmy Butler kicked in with 14. Villanova also shot well, hitting over 50 percent of their shots from inside and outside the circle. Corey Stokes was a marksman, burying 8-of-9 shots, including 6-of-7 from deep for 22 points. Corey Fisher had 16 and Antonio Pena 14 in supporting roles.

In the regular season, Marquette traded scores with Georgetown down the wire in Milwaukee and had just enough to bring home a 62-59 win. Marquette lived by the three in the contest, burying 12-of-26 treys, including Cubillan’s six makes without a miss, accounting for his team high 18 points. Hayward had a double-double of 12 points and 11 assists in the win, as well as coming up with four steals. The Hoyas, who never trailed by more than eight points and held a pair of two-point leads in the second half, got 20 points from Freeman and 12 from Julian Wright.

Georgetown has shown up for and won three games in a row for the first time in over two months, so they seem to have turned a corner. Marquette, however, will not back down for a second throughout the game and has turned into an expert group at playing tight games down the stretch. The big question for Marquette is if they can slow down Greg Monroe, whose height will provide a tremendous advantage. Of course, if they continue hitting three-pointers at the 58.3 percent rate (21-of-36) that they have in these two games in Madison Square Garden, the Golden Eagles. Marquette should play a lot better on defense than either of the Hoyas’ first two opponents, so give them the advantage for another tight win.

Game 2 – #7 Notre Dame (22-10) vs. #3 West Virginia (25-6)
Someone has stolen the Notre Dame team we have grown accustomed to and replaced them with a gritty, walk-it-up, defend as if your life depended on it squad… and the results are better than they were previously. The Fighting Irish uglied up another game and seized another win, beating Pittsburgh at their own game, 50-45. The Irish made a mere 18 field goals, but shot 54.5 percent from the floor and got assists on 14 of those buckets. More impressively, they snuffed out the Panther offense, holding a team that won eight of their last nine to 37.0 percent shooting from the field. Notre Dame, who won their sixth consecutive game, only had six players score, but each of those players had at least five points, led by Luke Harangody and Tory Jackson with 12 apiece, the former coming off the bench again. Brad Wanamaker had a game-high 16 and Jermaine Dixon ten for Pitt, but center Gary McGhee and the four bench players who saw action made only three of 18 shots.

West Virginia escaped their rugby scrum with Cincinnati with a pair of fortuitous plays in the last six seconds. First, Dion Dixon could not handle the ball in the Bearcats’ attempt to get off a last-second shot, then Da’Sean Butler banked an off-balance shot off the glass and into the hoop after the buzzer expired for a 54-51 win. As the score suggests, neither team did much on offense, as the Mountaineers were the better shooting team at 35 percent. The Bearcats were remarkably awful to start both halves, missing their first ten shots of the game, then shooting blanks on their first seven attempts of the second half. WVU exploited the first cold streak to take a commanding 18-4 lead nine minutes into the game and the second to push a three-point halftime lead to eight with seven minutes elapsed after the break. Cincinnati, who had that 14-point margin down to one in the first half, was led by Lance Stephenson, who had a game-high 19 points. Kevin Jones led West Virginia with 17 points and Butler’s game-winning heave gave him 15 to go with six rebounds and five assists, the last of which was a bounce pass from his knees after collecting a loose ball with the shot clock about to elapse.

Notre Dame claimed the January 9 contest, barely holding on to an early second half lead of 22 points for a 70-68 lead at home. The Fighting Irish stuck for their first nine field goals in the game to take a 25-4 lead just over eight minutes into the game then withstood second half runs of 11-0, 10-2, and 9-2 even though they missed all four field goals and three of four charity shots in the final four minutes. Harangody paced Notre Dame with 24 points, while Tim Abromaitis added 17 points and Tyrone Nash 13. Ben Hansbrough had a terrific all-around game with six points, nine rebounds, and ten assists. In fact, the Irish logged assists on 21 of their 23 buckets. West Virginia’s leading man was Jones, who had 17 points and ten rebounds. Butler had 13 points in a terrible shooting game (4-of-20) and “Truck” Bryant had 11.

Notre Dame’s style reversal makes them a hard read. A team that used to be freewheeling and uptempo is now slowed to a crawl. Clearly, it is working for them as they have secured an NCAA at-large berth. It also plays into West Virginia’s hands. As a superior rebounding team, particularly on the offensive end, the Mountaineers should be able to exploit the Irish on the glass, particularly when Harangody, Notre Dame’s best rebounder, is on the bench. It should be enough for them to earn a place in the championship game.

Game 1 – #8 Georgetown (21-9) vs. #1 Syracuse (28-3)
Georgetown rolled to a 69-49 win in their second round contest against South Florida, holding the perimeterally-challenged (is that a word?) Bulls to 29.1 percent field goal shooting in the contest. The Hoyas had runs of 8-0 and 7-0 in the first half and led by as many as 14 points in that time. South Florida got within six points early in second half, but Georgetown closed them out with a late 15-4 run. Three Hoyas were in double figures, as Jason Clark and Greg Monroe each had 16 points and Chris Wright had 15. USF, who got 21 points from Dominique Jones, got their first three-pointer in two Big East Tournament games with under 30 seconds left in the contest and ESPN play-by-play man Dave Pasch reported that they had two baskets that came outside the paint in their games. Maybe you guys want to work on that this summer?

A quarterfinal game with Syracuse, the top seed, is the reward for Georgetown. The Orange led the Big East in scoring differential at +15.3, more than five points ahead of the second place team. Of course, that is pretty easy to do when you have the league’s best shooting offense (51.5 percent) and second-best field goal defense (39.4 percent). One of the keys to that impressive defensive standing is the way the Syracuse defense forces opponents to take three-pointers that they cannot make. Orange foes put up over 25 threes per game (Villanova was second at just under 22 attempts per contest) and made only 30.9 percent of them. Syracuse also finished third in the conference in blocks with 6.6 per game and topped the Big East in steals with ten per night. The Orange feature a balanced offense where five players averaged in double figures in points and seven players scored at least 8.3 points per game. Big East Player of the Year Wes Johnson leads the squad in points (15.7/game) and rebounds (8.5/game).

Syracuse swept the regular season games, rocketing out of a 14-0 hole to take a 73-56 home win in January and escaping with a 75-71 road win in February after holding a 23-point lead with 12:37 to play. Andy Rautins averaged 20.5 points in the two games for the Orange, hitting seven threes in the contests, while Johnson averaged 15 and Kris Joseph 13. Austin Freeman led the Georgetown offense in both games, tallying 23 points on the road and 21 at home. Monroe and Wright each had 20 points in the home loss while Clark had 15 at the Carrier Dome. The Hoyas played very well in their first tournament game, but Syracuse is a much better shooting team, as well as having a zone defense that forces outside shots. The Orange have also gotten Monroe into foul in both regular season contests and will look to do so again. Look for the Orange to win, but in a game without a double-figure lead going either way.

Game 2 – #5 Marquette (21-10) vs. #4 Villanova (24-6)
As per their usual script, Marquette edged St. John’s in their second round game, pulling out a 57-55 win. The Golden Eagles had a ten-point lead at the eight-minute mark of the game and pushed it out to 14 points in the first half, but the Red Storm used an 18-6 run to take a four-point lead with seven minutes left. Marquette clawed back and got a dagger three from David Cubillan to take the lead with 1:15 to go and held on. Lazar Hayward led the Golden Eagles with 20 points, nine rebounds, and an uncalled moving screen on Cubillan’s three while St. John’s, who shot almost 64 percent inside the arc in the second half to rally, had three players in double digits.

Villanova tripped up frequently late in the season, dropping five of their final nine games after an 11-game win streak. The Wildcats play at a pace that is just behind Providence in the conference, only they do it at a much higher level of capability than the Friars. Villanova led the conference in scoring and finished 14th in points allowed. However, they ended up third in scoring differential at +10.1 points per game. The Wildcats’ defense is quite active, harassing their opponents into shooting only 40.5 percent from the field and 15.4 turnovers per game (third in the Big East). The downside of this activity is that Villanova fouls a lot. Their opponents shoot almost 27 free throws a game, which ranks sixth nationally. Scottie Reynolds leads three players who average double-figure scoring at 18.8 points per game. Corey Fisher averages 13.6 points and 4.0 assists per game while Antonio Pena racked up 10.8 rebounds and a team-best 7.4 rebounds per game. Reserve forward Taylor King has been suspended and will not suit up for Villanova.

The Wildcats swept the regular season contests with Marquette, getting two-point wins a week apart in January. Marquette had an early ten-point lead in the home game, but a Scottie Reynolds jumper gave Villanova the lead with under 20 seconds left and the Wildcats held on for a 74-72 win. Seven days later, the Wildcats held a 22-point lead with under seven minutes gone in the second half, but a furious Golden Eagle rally made them need three-of-four free throws in the final ten seconds to hold on for a 78-76 win. Reynolds led Villanova in scoring, averaging 19 points in the two contests, while three other players (Fisher, Reggie Redding, and Maalik Wayns) averaged 11 points per game in head-to-head play. Hayward led Marquette with 18.5 points and 11 rebounds per game and got offensive help from Jimmy Butler (16.5 pts/game) and Dwight Buycks (13.0 pts/game). Villanova exploited the Golden Eagles’ defense to make 51.8 percent of their field goals combined in the two games, which bodes well for their hopes. Marquette made 18 threes in the two games and will need to shoot that well to keep it close.

Game 3 – #7 Notre Dame (21-10) vs. #2 Pittsburgh (24-7)
Seton Hall found things to be a lot less fun in their second round game against Notre Dame, who took the air out of the ball and left with a 68-56 victory over the Pirates. The Pirates jumped out to an 11-2 lead before the game was five minutes old, but the Fighting Irish erased that deficit and used a 16-2 run to take a seven-point halftime lead, then scored the first seven of the second half to blow it open. Luke Harangody came off the bench and announced his presence as the best player in the gym, triggering the comeback with 15 points in the first half en route to a 20-point, 10-rebound night (and 64th career double-double). The Irish stifled the Pirates’ offense a night after they scored 109 points, forcing them into shooting a mere 34.5 percent from the field and 2-of-18 from three.

Pittsburgh closed very strong, but a rout at Notre Dame sticks out as the blemish in their final nine games. The Panthers ride their very stingy defense (39.8 percent field goals allowed, 30.9 percent three-point field goal allowed) to the lowest points allowed in the Big East at 61.7 per game. Their walk-it-up offense leads to them playing at the slowest pace in the conference, further slowing down their foes. Pitt is an average offensive team, ranking ninth in field goal percentage and seventh in three-point shooting, but it has resulted in a well-rounded offense featuring four players who average double figures. Ashton Gibbs tops the scorers at 16.2 points per game while Brad Wanamaker, Jermaine Dixon, and Gilbert Brown average between 10.7 and 12.0 points per game apiece.

Notre Dame started their five-game winning streak with a 68-53 blowout of Pitt at home. The Irish opened the game with a pair of threes and never looked back, holding an 11-point first half lead before going up 24 midway through the second session. Four players hit double digits in scoring for the Irish, who were without Harangody, led by Tim Abromaitis with 17 and Ben Hansbrough with 15 points and nine rebounds. Dixon had 13 and Gibbs 11 in a losing effort for the Panthers. The Panthers will have revenge on their minds, but Notre Dame is teeming with confidence and they know they can defeat Pitt in a slowdown game, having done it a little over two weeks ago. Look for the Irish to pull the upset and advance to the semifinals.

Game 4 – #11 Cincinnati (18-14) vs. #3 West Virginia (24-6)
Cincinnati trailed by as many as 12 points in their second-round game with Louisville, but used a run of 11 straight points to get back into the game and later a 13-2 run to take the lead for good with just over six minutes left and hold on for a 69-66 victory. The Bearcats pounded the Cardinals on the glass, 46-29, which enabled them to overcome a terrible shooting night (34.7 percent overall, 4-for-18 from three). Yancy Gates paced Cincy with 16 points while Lance Stephenson and Darnell Wilks chipped in with a dozen apiece. Louisville got 28 points from Edgar Sosa and 16 from Reginald Delk, who combined to make 9-of-10 from beyond the arc.

West Virginia is the last of the big fish to be released into action and rides a three-game win streak, including victories over Georgetown and Villanova, into the Garden. The Mountaineers’ slower-than-average pace has them giving up the third-fewest points in the conference at 64.8 points per game. While only seventh in points scored, their slow pace factors in again, as West Virginia actually ranks third in points per possession. In fact, the Mountaineers rank 12th in field goal percentage offense and 11th in field goal percentage defense. Their rebounding rates are where West Virginia really shines and makes up for some inadequacies. They are third in defensive rebounding percentage and tops in offensive rebounding percentage, collecting just over 42 percent of their misses. West Virginia features a strong trio of wings in Da’Sean Butler, Kevin Jones, and Devin Ebanks, who combine for over 43 points and 22 rebounds per night. Darryl “Truck” Bryant also averages double figures, scoring 10.6 points per contest.

West Virginia trailed by as many as 13 in their regular season game with Cincinnati, but bounced back with runs of 11-0 and 10-2 to pull out a 74-68 home win. The two teams combined to shoot just over 40 percent in the game, but the Mountaineers finished with +11 mark in rebounding, beating the Bearcats at their own game. Jones scored 15 points to lead WVU while “Truck” Bryant scored 14 and Devin Banks had a 12-point, 10-board double-double. Deonta Vaughn scored 15 for Cincinnati and Stephenson had 14 points and nine rebounds. The quarterfinal finale will resemble a rugby scrum at many times and the game will likely be a “first one to 60 wins” affair. Cincinnati needs another win to keep their NCAA hopes on life support, but a group of gifted wing players, including the big shot capability of Butler, should lift West Virginia to a tight victory.

Game 1 – #9 South Florida (20-11) vs. #8 Georgetown (20-9)
South Florida had a fairly easy go of it to kick off of the tournament, beating DePaul, 58-49. USF led by 19 points late in the first half before the Blue Demons got a 9-0 run to make a game of it, but they never got within five points. DePaul lived up to their poor offensive reputation, making just under 30 percent of their field goal attempts in the game and posting an entire 15 points before halftime. Dominique Jones did a little bit of everything for the Bulls, finishing the game with 20 points, nine rebounds and four steals. Perhaps the most interesting thing about the game is that it took 26 minutes for anyone to make a three-pointer.

Georgetown is the first of the four teams with a one-day bye to enter tournament action. Possibly the most talented team in the conference, the Hoyas have been rather erratic. Along with wins over Duke, Villanova, and Pitt, they also lost to Rutgers. The Hoyas run their Princeton offense efficiently, finishing second in the conference with a 49.8 percent field goal mark, including a third-best 38.8 percent mark from three. Their weakness is a lack of depth, as they rarely go more than seven deep and the seventh man usually sees very limited minutes. Georgetown’s leading scorer is Austin Freeman, who averaged 17.3 points on the season and had 24 in his return after being diagnosed with diabetes. Freeman is not even the Hoyas’ top player, as multi-talented center Greg Monroe averaged 16.0 points, 9.6 rebounds, and 3.6 assists per game. Chris Wright (14.2 points/game) and Jason Clark (10.3 points/game) complete a well-balanced offense.

South Florida won the regular season tilt between the two squads in early February, 72-64. Jones, as expected, had a big game, finishing with 29 points and eight rebounds as USF roared back from a 13-point first half deficit and used a 15-2 run to take the lead for good. Monroe and Freeman paced the Hoyas with 21 apiece. With Freeman back in the lineup and clicking, the Hoyas should exact revenge against the Bulls and advance to the quarterfinals.

Game 2 – #13 St. John’s (17-14) vs. #5 Marquette (20-10)
St. John’s had a surprisingly easy time of it in the first round against Connecticut, running away with a 73-51 blowout in which they led wire-to-wire. The Red Storm led by nine points less than seven minutes into the game and pushed that margin up to 17 before intermission. The Huskies, who made 37.5 percent of their shots and turned it over 19 times to throw an anvil through their NCAA Tournament bubble, got within eight points a couple times, but ten straight points by St. John’s late blew the lid off the game. The Red Storm got good efforts from a variety of players, most notably a 19-point, 10-rebound game from Sean Evans.

Marquette closed the season 9-2, including going 3-1 in overtime games and pulling out another pair of tight victories. The Golden Eagles play at the second-slowest pace in league action, which is reflected by their second place finish in points allowed in the conference at 63.6 points per game. That high ranking is a little deceptive, as they finished 15th in field goal percentage allowed at 44.1 percent. To continue Marquette’s quirky ways, they finished first in three-point percentage allowed at 30.8 percent. The result? Opponents made 49.7 percent of their two-point tries. The Golden Eagles are okay with that, though, as they led the conference in three-point percentage at a 39.9 clip and finished fourth in threes per contest. Lazar Hayward and Jimmy Butler finished 1-2 on the team in points and rebounds, combining for over 33 points and 14 boards per game.

The Golden Eagles won (what else) an overtime game against the Red Storm less than three weeks ago, 63-61. Butler capped his 18-point effort with a jumper that provided the winning points and Hayward led the Golden Eagles with 22 points. The Red Storm forced only eight turnovers in the game, but held Marquette to 34.4 percent shooting in the game. D.J. Kennedy was the top scorer for St. John’s with 20 points. This rematch will likely be a walk-it-up affair. Marquette, who will be wary of a St. John’s team brimming with confidence after their first-round rout, should pull it out.

Game 3 – #10 Seton Hall (19-11) vs. #7 Notre Dame (21-10)
Seton Hall escaped their first round track meet with Providence after squandering almost all of a 29-point second half lead, 109-106. The Friars, who play at the pace of a blender on puree and offer next to no resistance on defense, allowed the Pirates to make 53.7 percent of their field goal attempts, including a 16-of-19 stretch to close the first half. The Hall, who gave up 67(!) points in the second half, had four players score at least 15 points, led by Herb Pope’s career-high 27 points and 11 rebounds. Jamine Peterson paced Providence with 38 points, tying for second-most in a Big East Tournament game, and 16 rebounds.

Notre Dame, who rose to the seven-seed by winning their last four games, looks stingy on defense compared to what Seton Hall just saw, ranking 12th in the conference at 70.6 points allowed per game and 14th in field goal defense at 43.8 percent. The Irish are proficient at filling it up, however, sporting the highest points-per-possession rate in the Big East. Their marksmanship is key to their success, as they have connected on 47.4 percent of their field goal attempts on the season, including the second-best mark from deep at 39.8 percent, and hitting the third-highest number of threes in the conference. Luke Harangody, who averaged 23.3 points and 9.7 rebounds a night, returned from an injury in the season finale, but is still slated to come off the bench. Tim Abromaitis averaged 17.2 points per game and the starting backcourt of transfer Ben Hansbrough and Tory Jackson combined for almost 22 points and ten assists per outing.

The Hall pulled out a 90-87 home win over the Irish four weeks ago in an episode of “The Jeremy Hazell Show,” as the Pirate guard racked up 35 points on 12-of-16 shooting, including banging home 8-of-11 from downtown. As might be expected in a game where 177 points were scored in regulation, both teams shot over 54 percent from the field and 52 percent from deep in the game. Notre Dame, who got a personal-best 25 points from Tory Jackson in the loss, trailed by a dozen early in the first half and climbed within a single point on three occasions, but could not get over the hump. The two teams should be able to exploit each other’s questionable defense, but look for the Irish to continue to play well on their quest to sew up an NCAA bid.

Game 4 – #11 Cincinnati (17-14) vs. #6 Louisville (20-11)
Cincinnati had a 15-2 second half run and a +16 advantage on the glass, but needed Lance Stephenson to draw a foul and make a tiebreaking free throw with 1.8 seconds on the clock to pull out a 69-68 win over Rutgers in the opening day’s nightcap. The Bearcats shot only 38.2 percent from the floor, which probably is not a big surprise, but took advantage of all those misses, grabbing 19 offensive rebounds and turning them into 20 second chance points. Five Cincy players scored at least seven points, led by Stephenson and surprise starter Jaquon Parker with 13 points apiece. The latter replaced Rashad Bishop, who is suspended for the tournament for breaking an undisclosed team rule. The Scarlet Knights were led by Mike Rosario’s 26 points and Jonathan Mitchell’s 15-point, 12-rebound effort.

Louisville took a lot of pressure off themselves by rolling top-ranked Syracuse at home in their season finale and “locking up” a bid for the big dance. Aside from sweeping the Orange, the Cardinals have not shown the ability to beat upper echelon teams (0-4 against the other teams in front of them in the Big East and a loss to Kentucky). The Cards are statistically average almost all the way across the board, excelling in only threes made on the season and offensive rebounding percentage. There are two top-notch players on the squad, however, in Samardo Samuels, who topped the squad in points per game at 15.4 and boards per night at 7.1, and Edgar Sosa, who adds 12.8 points and 4.6 assists per contest to their attack.

Louisville employed a 21-10 start to the second half to grab a 12-point lead en route to a home win over Cincinnati, 68-60. The Bearcats had an 11-point lead six minutes into the game, but watched it evaporate in part due to the Cardinals’ pressure defense that forced 11 steals. Samuels and Sosa each had 14 points, but Reginald Delk’s surprise double-double of 13 points and 11 boards powered the Cards to the win while four different Cincy players had a dozen points. Both teams play at a normal pace for the conference, but the Cardinals average about a tenth of a point more per possession than the Bearcats in Big East play. That and Cincinnati’s offensive difficulties point to the Louisville moving on to the quarters.

Game 1 – #16 DePaul (8-22) vs. #9 South Florida (19-11)
South Florida has taken a major step forward this season, improving from nine wins last season to 19 and counting this time around. The Bulls, however, are a rather mediocre team even with that major on-court improvement. The team ranks in the top half in the conference in a grand total of three statistical categories (5th in three-point percentage allowed, 7th in defensive rebounds per game, and 8th in scoring defense). Dominique Jones is the star providing the push for this team, ranking second in the conference with 21.3 points per game. While the Bulls are below average statistically, DePaul makes them look pretty good in comparison. Last in scoring, last in point differential, last in field goal percentage, 13th in defensive field goal percentage. It is a gruesome picture. There are two bright spots for the Blue Demons, though. Mac Koshwal averages a double-double at 16.6 points and 10.1 rebounds while Will Walker tallied 16.0 points per night, but shot 36.0 percent on the season. Koshwal, in particular, closed the season very well, posting averages of 22.7 points and 10.7 rebounds per game in his last six contests.

South Florida broke a tie late en route to winning the game at DePaul a week ago, 63-59, on the strength of holding DePaul to 2-of-14 from deep and winning the board battle by 12. As expected, Jones led the Bulls with 20 points, including a tie-breaking three and a pair of free throws to ice it. Mac Koshwal had 24 points and 11 rebounds for the Blue Demons, who also got 16 points from Will Walker. Koshwal could make this game interesting, but DePaul has nothing to play for, not even their interim coach. USF moves one step closer to a bid.

Game 2 – #13 St. John’s (16-14) vs. #12 Connecticut (17-14)
The Huskies are fading, having lost their last three games. Their saving grace is their difficult schedule, which is rated third in the nation (the top four in the nation all come from the Big East). Unfortunately, their schedule has led to their double digit losses and Jim Calhoun is responding to some lackluster play by benching some of his better players. UConn is a very good defensive team again, leading the conference in field goal percentage allowed at 38.9 percent, and blocked shots at 7.8 per game (which is second in the nation). Unfortunately, their lack of consistent inside scoring and propensity for turnovers have been major weaknesses. Jerome Dyson leads the team with 17.7 points per game while Stanley Robinson and Kemba Walker both average 14.9 points. St. John’s lacks offensive punch, beating only cellar-dweller DePaul in scoring and field goal percentage. The Red Storm try to offset these offensive deficiencies by playing a slowdown game and a win here would go a long way toward ending their seven year postseason drought. DJ Kennedy leads St. John’s in points (15.3), rebounds (6.2), assists (3.0), and steals (1.1) per game.

Connecticut blew out the Red Storm in their regular season matchup in Hartford, 75-59, in their first game without Calhoun during his medical absence. The Red Storm had a lead late in the first half, but a 19-7 Husky run that bridged halftime turned the tide. UConn’s big three scorers were just that in the game, racking up 56 points, while Kennedy paced the Red Storm with 19. With their backs to the wall, look for an inspired performance from Connecticut to secure a victory.

Game 3 – #15 Providence (12-18) vs. #10 Seton Hall (18-11)
This one screams “track meet.” Seton Hall finished fourth in the conference in scoring at 80.3 points per game, but their defense was next-to-last at 74.2 points per game allowed. The Pirates spread it around, featuring six players who scored at least eight points per game. Jeremy Hazell leads the way at 21.2 points per game while New Mexico State transfer Herb Pope scores 11.1 points per game and grabs a league-best 11.2 rebounds per night. Keno Davis’ Friars play at the fastest pace in the conference and have a pretty fair offense (on the surface, anyway). However, their defense puts them in a bad spot, as they allow more points per possession than any other unit in the Big East. Their uptempo style hides their offensive inefficiency, as they shoot only 43.3 percent from the field, but does nothing to shield their inept defense (a league-worst 46.8 percent field goal percentage allowed) from public consumption. The Friars had four players average double digits in scoring, led by Jamine Peterson, who averaged 19.0 points and 10.0 rebounds per game, including single-game highs of 29 points and 22 rebounds.

Seton Hall won the regular season finale between the two teams, outrunning the Friars in Providence, 92-80. Jordan Theodore led six Pirate players in double figures with 19 points as the Hall scored to open the game and never looked back. Vincent Council led the Friars with a season-high 25 points and Sharaud Curry added 19. Seton Hall has enough offensive talent to win again, not to mention that they are chasing an at-large bid.

Game 4 – #14 Rutgers (15-16) vs. #11 Cincinnati (16-14)
Cincinnati has played themselves into this spot where they likely need to win at least three games just to get back into serious NCAA bubble contention. Of course, getting three ranked foes in a row to close the season gave them no help. The Bearcats have a tough go of it on offense, ranking 11th in points and field goal percentage while dead last in three-point shooting (29.2 percent), but get after it on defense, allowing their foes to make only 41.1 percent of their shots, and on the glass, finishing the season with a +6.1 rebounding margin and ranking tops in conference in defensive rebounding percentage. Freshman Lance Stephenson led Cincy with 12.0 points per game, which is the lowest mark for any team leader in the Big East. Rutgers may not be even as good as their 14th seed would suggest. They had the second-worst point differential in conference at -4.3 points per game and made only 42.4 percent of their field goal attempts. The Scarlet Knights have issues on the glass, too, but they compiled the second-most blocked shots in the league, returning 7.1 attempts per game. While Rutgers have three players who averaged in double figures on the season, one of them, Gregory Echenique, missed all but the first seven games of the campaign. Mike Rosario led the way with 16.4 points per game while Hamady Ndiaye topped the team with 7.1 rebounds and 4.5 blocks per game.

The Bearcats proved to be rude guests at Rutgers, knocking off the Scarlet Knights, 65-58. Cincy trailed by six early in the second half, but used an 18-7 to take control and made 5-of-6 from the line in the final 40 seconds to hold on. Deonta Vaughn was the top scorer in the game, tallying 17 for Cincinnati, while Jonathan Mitchell topped Rutgers with 14 points and seven rebounds. The combination of Rutgers’ weak offense and Cincinnati’s dogged defense should result in a repeat of the regular season game.

The mega-conference is invading Madison Square Garden again, as the Big East is bringing all 16 of their members in waves to New York to determine who gets the conference title and its accompanying automatic berth to the NCAA Tournament. Tuesday is the first of three days of quadruple-headers, featuring the lowest eight seeds in the tournament. The teams who finished fifth through eighth get introduced in Wednesday’s second round and the top four seeds get to take their shots at picking off survivors in Thursday’s quarterfinal round. Oh, and you never know if there will be a six-overtime game.

The conference is not quite as top-heavy as last year, as there were three teams vying for top seeds in the NCAA Tournament last year, but this year’s version features a team that has all but secured a #1 seed in the big dance and three other teams who can grab #2 seeds. In fact, there are essentially seven locks for the NCAA Tournament already and one team that can realistically grab an eighth spot, should they continue their current hot streak. Beyond that, teams will need at least two wins and likely get some help in the form of other teams having their bubbles burst. With the overall quality of the conference, it is very hard to imagine a team seeded ninth or lower swiping the title, not to mention that pesky “winning five games in five days” thing.

How the squads break down, in order of seeding from top to bottom (with one exception):

Playing for top seeds in the NCAAs: Syracuse, Pittsburgh, West Virginia, Villanova
Syracuse allegedly wrapped up a top seed in the NCAA Tournament when they throttled Villanova a little over a week ago. However, that spot could be in jeopardy if they drop their opening game and teams like Duke, Kansas State, and Ohio State win their respective conference titles. Pittsburgh has won their last three and eight of their last nine to sneak into the two-hole. They will need to win at least one game, but more likely two, to sew up a top-two seed. West Virginia has won five of their last six and their worst loss on the season is at Notre Dame. They, like the Panthers, will need a couple wins to lock in a second seed. Villanova has tripped up lately, but that is a product of the meat grinder portion of their schedule kicking in late. They have lost to each of the other three teams in this group as part of a 2-4 slide to end their season.

Playing for NCAA seeding: Marquette, Louisville, Georgetown
If you want to watch a tight game, just tune in whenever Marquette is in action. The Golden Eagles, who have closed strong, winning nine of their last 11, have gone to overtime in each of their last four games and have had 13 of their games decided by four points or less. Louisville may have secured an at-large bid by finishing their season sweep of Syracuse on Saturday. The Cardinals have been inconsistent, however, failing to win more than three games in a row since the calendar reset. Georgetown welcomed back Austin Freeman, who was diagnosed with diabetes, by drubbing Cincinnati in their season finale. That victory snapped a 4-6 stretch for the Hoyas, which included losses at home to South Forida and at Rutgers. Georgetown, who is actually the eight seed, currently has the top strength of schedule rating in the country, which puts them in this group.

Playing to get off the bubble: Notre Dame
Notre Dame has turned the injury to Luke Harangody into a good thing. While it took a week to get things figured out, the Fighting Irish turned into a machine, getting edged in overtime by Louisville before closing with four straight wins, including knocking off NCAA locks in Pitt, Georgetown, and Marquette. Now, Harangody is back and coming off the bench.

Playing to get on the bubble, then in the NCAAs: South Florida, Seton Hall, Cincinnati, Connecticut
Each of these teams need two wins and possibly a third to get seriously considered for an NCAA bid. South Florida and Seton Hall are both at .500 in conference, which is pretty impressive, considering where they came from. Both teams righted their respective ships late, with USF winning their final three games to get even in Big East play and the Pirates getting their final two in the win column. The Bulls have a pair of impressive conference victories in beating Pitt at home and Georgetown in our nation’s capital. Seton Hall also has a home win over Pitt, as well as defeating Ivy League champ Cornell. Those thin resumes, however, create another big problem for each team, as they both reside in the 60’s in the RPI. Two wins may not be enough for either of them. Both Cincinnati and Connecticut will definitely need three wins and an appearance in the semifinals, especially because they would each get two marquee wins. The Bearcats seem to have a slim chance of doing that as they are reeling, having lost their last three and seven of nine. It’s also hard to forget how they laid down in the first round to DePaul last year after the Blue Demons went 0-18 in conference action. The Huskies are also in turmoil. Like Cincy, they have also lost their last three games. Head coach Jim Calhoun also announced after their finale at South Florida that three players are benched for their first round game. Welcome back to the bench, Jim.

Playing to get an NIT bid: St John’s, Rutgers
St John’s has had another rough season, but can at least point to their wins over Louisville and Notre Dame as signs of improvement. In fact, the fact that they are playing for a postseason bid (they may get an NIT berth, anyway) is a positive. Rutgers would really like to get two wins to guarantee a record of .500 or better, which would be a huge victory in light of their nine-game losing streak that included most of January. They have shown moments of being lively, having knocked off Georgetown and Notre Dame.

Playing on Tuesday and Tuesday alone: Providence, DePaul.
Providence is reeling. Ten straight losses. An average of 88.1 points per game allowed in that span. Ten games with 90 or more points allowed on the season. The Friars play track meets, which explains how they have four double-digit scorers and still finished 4-14 in conference and 12-18 overall. DePaul won a game in conference play this year, which is one more Big East victory than they secured last year. The Blue Demons’ victim? Marquette. 51-50. Since then, it has been a dozen losses. The team is 1-14 since Jerry Wainwright was shown the door. Of course, they did win a game in the tournament last year.

Most intriguing first-round matchup: Rutgers vs. Cincinnati
The Scarlet Knights have a shot at a .500 record, which would be a significant move for Fred Hill, whose job was in jeopardy during the season. Cincinnati has been reeling and was a no-show last year with an NCAA bid on the line. They could be ripe for the picking.

Most intriguing potential second-round matchup: Seton Hall vs. Notre Dame
A second win in the Big East tourney would give Notre Dame 22 on the season, which when combined with ten conference victories, would make them an appealing choice. Seton Hall, on the other hand, would be playing for victory #20, not to mention could knock the Irish off the bubble and perhaps even replace them.

Most intriguing potential quarterfinal matchup: Louisville vs. West Virginia
Based on their sweep of Syracuse, Louisville has shown they are capable of defeating anyone. West Virginia’s tough defense should make this an absolute dogfight, especially since the Cardinals could use another marquee victory for their resume.

First, my apologies for this post not being a timely rebuttal to the post concerning the other side of this issue. I digress…

Sportsfrog.com used to have the tagline, “dissecting sports and media while battling a dirty gambling habit.” Trust me, I have the t-shirt. I guess it is now my turn to jump into the media dissection pool.

Not only has TMZ not made inroads into “sports coverage,” they are not “covering sports” at all. They are taking the elements of what makes gossip appealing to their audience and widening the net of people who fall into that arena.

The two stories Brontoburglar cited that TMZ reported ahead of the mainstream media were the death of Angels’ pitcher Nick Adenhart and the Tiger Woods car accident. However, both stories involve the “sin” aspects that make news or gossip, respectively. In Adenhart’s case, it is his death, as evidenced particularly well by the newsroom cliché “if it bleeds, it leads,” and in Woods’ case, sex (just like how Alex Rodriguez previously made gossip sheets for being spotted with a woman who was not his wife). If Woods had been in the exact same car accident without the prior reports of his infidelity, would TMZ have been beating down doors to get information? I think not.

Saying TMZ is showing “legitimate newsgathering chops” loses all credibility when, in the next paragraph, it is cited that TMZ pays for scoops. People who know they will not be named as sources have no reason to be honest. Think about this for a second. If some gossip outlet came to you, asked if you had any information about a person you did not actually know (or maybe even knew, but did not like) and offered a substantial amount of money for that information plus a guarantee of anonymity, what reason would you have to not make something up? Before you say, “well, I wouldn’t do that, I have no reason to lie,” you should probably consider if that is true when there is a check made out to you valued at $10,000 ready to be put in your hand. How about $25,000? $50,000? Really? No one knows you’re the person making these statements. You have nothing to lose and a lot to gain. Think about the current state of the human race for a little while if you still think honesty matters in the face of money.

I also have a different answer to this question and answer posed in the other post:

“Was the reluctance to use TMZ information in newspaper stories more related to fears that it wasn’t factually correct, or the fact that it came from TMZ? I lean strongly towards the latter.”

Reluctance to use TMZ information in a newspaper story is due to fears that it is factually incorrect because it came from TMZ. TMZ is a source for gossip, not news. A newspaper that reports false information risks losing the trust of its readership, not to mention the threat of lawsuit. The reporting of “facts” without confirmation is a huge sin in the world of news reporting. It is called independent confirmation.

I doubt readers care about how the information is gathered or who reports it as long as the outlet reporting the news is trustworthy. Then again, looking at the political climate in our country, maybe this is not the case.

Last year, my predictions were not as bad as I originally, thought. I hit 13 out of 16 postseason teams last season after getting 14 the year before. Someday, I’ll believe in Atlanta enough to put them in the postseason.

EASTERN CONFERENCE:

1. Cleveland
2. Boston
3. Orlando
4. Washington
5. Atlanta
6. Toronto
7. Chicago
8. Philadelphia
9. Miami
10. Detroit
11. Indiana
12. New York
13. Charlotte
14. New Jersey
15. Milwaukee

WESTERN CONFERENCE:

1. Los Angeles Lakers
2. San Antonio
3. Portland
4. Dallas
5. Utah
6. New Orleans
7. Phoenix
8. Denver
9. Los Angeles Clippers
10. Oklahoma City
11. Houston
12. Golden State
13. Memphis
14. Sacramento
15. Minnesota

AWARD ROLL CALL:

MOST VALUABLE PLAYER: LeBron James, Cleveland

COACH OF THE YEAR: Flip Saunders, Washington

ROOKIE OF THE YEAR: Blake Griffin, Los Angeles Clippers

SIXTH MAN AWARD: Lamar Odom, Los Angeles Clippers

MOST IMPROVED PLAYER: Greg Oden, Portland

DEFENSIVE PLAYER OF THE YEAR: Dwight Howard, Orlando

ABSURDLY PREMATURE PLAYOFF PREDICTIONS:

The first round will show how the top teams in the league are far ahead of the rest of the league. In the East, all the favorites advance in the opening round in five or fewer games, save for the Wizards, who get pushed to seven games in a very entertaining series. The first round in the Western Conference features a first-round romp by the Lakers while the other three higher seeds all advance in six games.

The conference semifinals feature a return of the Cleveland-Washington playoff rivalry that has been dormant for a couple years. The Wizards go small to offset the skilled big men of the Cavaliers and push the series to six before getting ushered into the offseason. Boston and Orlando wage a war that lasts seven games with the Celtics pulling it out in a tight finale. The Lakers get past Dallas in six games in the West while Greg Oden proves to be a force, but Tim Duncan gets the best of him in seven games.

Cleveland and Boston meet in the conference finals in the East while the Lakers and Spurs butt heads in the West as the chalk reigns supreme. Both series go seven games and set up a television executive’s dream NBA Finals: Kobe vs. LeBron and Shaq. The Ron Artest signing pays off here, as his defense throws off LeBron enough in a couple games for the Lakers to win the title in six games.

GOLDEN STATE WARRIORS

ADDITIONS: G Speedy Claxton, G Stephen Curry, F Devean George, G Acie Law

SUBTRACTIONS: G Marco Belinelli, G Jamal Crawford

STARTERS: PG – Monta Ellis, SG – Kelenna Azubuike, SF – Stephen Jackson, PF – Anthony Randolph, C – Andris Biedrins

ROTATION: G Stephen Curry, F Corey Maggette, F/C Mikki Moore, G Anthony Morrow, F/C Rony Turiaf

OUTLOOK: The loss of Baron Davis in free agency and a spate of injuries (154 games missed among the top eight scorers who were with the team for the full season) were responsible for the Warriors taking a significant step back from 48 wins to 29 last season. Oaktown’s finest rolled out 47 different starting lineups last season and that is not the worst thing to veil the franchise in bad vibes. Vice president Chris Mullin was not retained and Don Nelson’s pal Larry Riley was brought in as his replacement, then made a pair of lopsided trades, removing Jamal Crawford and Marco Belinelli from the team for spare parts. Oh well, they still hold the title as “most entertaining team to watch” in the league.
Monta Ellis will be around for the full season this time around instead of missing 70 percent of the season due to a moped injury. Ellis is one of the best guards in the league at getting to the rim when healthy, which is shown in his 19.0 point per game average and his career 48.8 percent field goal shooting mark. Ellis would be even more dangerous if teams had to respect him on the perimeter, as he made 30.8 percent of his shots from deep. Kelenna Azubuike should start next to Ellis after a season where he made 94 threes en route to a 14.4 point per game average in 74 contests. Azubuike came out of nowhere to win a role with the Warriors and tallied five double-doubles, including a 30-point, 15-board game against Sacramento late last season. Stephen Jackson got into a verbal war with Don Nelson already this preseason and voluntarily gave up his captain status. The most well-rounded player and emotional leader of the Warriors, Jackson averaged 20.7 points, 6.5 assists, 5.1 rebounds, 1.7 treys, and 1.5 steals per game. The team would be better off working things out with him, especially with his contract extension that kicks in after the season making it difficult to trade him, provided Golden State is going to end the “getting scraps back for assets” trade policy that has been in effect. Freak of nature Anthony Randolph should start at the four. Before turning 20 this summer, Randolph closed lat year with a dozen games of 13.5 points, 10.5 rebounds, and 1.6 blocks per night in just under 32 minutes per game. Big things are expected, as he should team as a nice active post combo with Andris Biedrins. Biedrins may be the best garbageman in the NBA, averaging over eleven points and rebounds per game last year at center. Biedrins needs to improve his free-throw stroke, as his 57.8 percent mark from the floor is better than his 55.1 percent rate at the stripe.
Lottery pick Stephen Curry is expected to play a big role for the Warriors, probably moving Azubuike to the bench at some point. Curry has had problems adjusting to the NBA, making under 35 percent of his shots and a mere 19.0 percent from three in the preseason. Corey Maggette has been speculated to get minutes at the four as well as at the three. He fills the instant offense role off the bench, with his effective drives to the cup, as well as drawing fouls (8.1 free throw attempts/game) and making them cash in (82.4 percent rate). Anthony Morrow is a long bomber who will come of the bench at either swingman spot and open things up for Ellis or Maggette on the strength of 46.7 percent shooting from three. Morrow is explosive, having topped 24 points in a game five times as a rookie. Rony Turiaf will get minutes at both post positions and is the best shotblocker on the team, having hung 2.1 blocks per game last season. Turiaf gets a lot of opportunities, though, based on the wings playing passing lanes, looking for steals. Mikki Moore joins his ninth NBA franchise after splitting last season with Sacramento and Boston. Moore is a decent scorer and rebounder, but not good enough to merit more than a dozen minutes per night.

LOS ANGELES CLIPPERS

ADDITIONS: G/F Rasual Butler, F Blake Griffin, F Craig Smith, G Sebstian Telfair

SUBTRACTIONS: F Zach Randolph, G/F Quentin Richardson, G Mike Taylor

STARTERS: PG – Baron Davis, SG – Eric Gordon, SF – Rasual Butler, PF – Marcis Camby, C – Chris Kaman

ROTATION: G/F Mardy Collins, G/F Ricky Davis, F Blake Griffin, C DeAndre Jordan, G Sebastian Telfair, F Al Thornton

OUTLOOK: Hope springs again for the other tenant of Staples Center, as the Clippers won the NBA lottery and brought in consensus top pick Blake Griffin. The Clippers even went so far as to ship out Zach Randolph to open playing time for Griffin, who joins a talented cast that Mike Dunleavy must mold into a solid unit. “Solid” is a fair goal for this year, as the Clippers have regressed each year after 2005-06’s 47-win campaign.
Baron Davis had a miserable year in his homecoming, shooting 37.0 percent from the floor and 30.5 percent from beyond the arc. Davis also chafed under Dunleavy’s thumb, banging heads with his coach over the number of plays called and reliance on the halfcourt game instead of running in transition. Davis has lost weight in the offseason, so there is hope for a bounceback season. Rookie Eric Gordon played his way into the starting lineup and led the team in points and minutes. Gordon was also the team’s best perimeter defender and made 131 threes at a 38.9 percent rate. Rasual Butler came over from New Orleans this summer after making 140 treys as a Hornet. Both he and Gordon should open things up for the Clippers’ postmen. Marcus Camby was his usual self last year, averaging 10.3 points, 11.1 rebounds, and 2.1 blocks a game while missing 20 contests due to injury. However, Camby looked like an iron man compared to starting center Chris Kaman, who missed 51 games. Kaman averaged a dozen points and eight rebounds per game last season in spite of being sidelined for almost all of winter. The two bigs are a nice complement to one another on offense, Camby working the high post and out to eighteen feet while Kaman uses his post moves on the low block, and they both do a good job defending the rim and clearing the glass.
Blake Griffin will form the third man in the post rotation, playing at the four with Camby sliding to the middle when needed. Griffin was a monster at Oklahoma last season, ringing up 22.7 points and 14.4 rebounds per game with his relentless style. His athleticism and intensity should help him make a reasonable adjustment to the pro game. DeAndre Jordan, a project at center, should get sporadic minutes unless (until?) one of the starters goes down. Jordan showed promise in limited opportunities last year, mostly with his rebounding and shotblocking overshadowing his raw offensive game. Al Thornton will come off the bench at the three as an instant offense player after averaging 16.8 points per game last year. Thornton, however, is more of a volume scorer than anything else. Mardy Collins and Ricky Davis will compete for minutes at the swingman spots. Collins is a strong defender while Davis is a skilled offensive player. Davis may not adjust to a limited role and could present an attitude problem. Even at under $2.5 million dollars for the season, tightfisted owner Donald Sterling will likely not authorize a buyout. Sebastian Telfair is the only other point guard on the roster, so Davis’ health is more important than usual. A decent set-up man, Telfair has shooting and defensive deficiencies.

LOS ANGELES LAKERS

ADDITIONS: G/F Ron Artest,

SUBTRACTIONS: F Trevor Ariza

STARTERS: PG – Derek Fisher, SG – Kobe Bryant, SF – Ron Artest, PF – Pau Gasol, C – Andrew Bynum

ROTATION: G/F Shannon Brown, G Jordan Farmar, F Lamar Odom, G Sasha Vujacic, F Luke Walton

OUTLOOK: The 2009-2010 Los Angeles Lakers are not a basketball team, but rather a sociology and psychology experiment. You have an unusual head coach who uses nontraditional methods to get through to his teams in Phil Jackson, a new player who is one of the most fascinating personalities in the league in Ron Artest, an all-time great in Kobe Bryant, who Artest respects and admires almost to the point of idolatry, and a childhood friend of the wildcard in Lamar Odom. Oh, and they are defending champions with repeat expectations weighing on them. Throw it all in the second-largest media market in the country and blend.
Bryant leads the team back on the court in his quest for personal ring number five. Bryant proved last year that he can win a championship without being a second banana to anyone, but if you want to make him angry, point out that the Lakers did not have that tough a road to the championship (Utah, Houston, Denver, and Orlando). In any case, Bryant may see a further decrease in his scoring from 26.8 points per game to around 25 due to the obscene talent around him. Once again, Derek Fisher stands beside Bryant in the Laker backcourt, ready to provide veteran saavy, hard-nosed defense, and three-point range (Fisher had team highs of 120 treys and 39.1 percent shooting from three). Fisher is the steady hand who will need to keep level heads on the floor. Ron Artest comes over from Houston in a free agency swap for Trevor Ariza. Artest provides size at the two and three and can enable Kobe to defend the opponent’s lesser swingman and save his energy for offense. With a career-best season of marksmanship under his belt (153 triples on 39.9 percent shooting), Artest should prove to be an effective addition to the triangle offense, burying the corner threes that Ariza did last year. Pau Gasol proved to be one of the best bigs in the league, posting close to nineteen points and ten rebounds per night while working out of both post positions. Gasol proved a great fit for the triangle, dishing out 3.5 assists per game and burying 56.7 percent of his field goals. If youngster Andrew Bynum could stay healthy (he missed 32 contests last year), he could be the final ingredient in turning the Lakers into an all-time level great team. Bynum provides a major deterrent at the rim, solid rebounding, and a developing offensive game.
Lamar Odom is the league’s premier sixth man, using his multiple talents to help the team in whatever role is needed. An adept passer and defender who can also score when needed, Odom can fill in wherever needed on the floor and can replace Fisher to create a big lineup that is second to none in the league. The team lacks a true backup center in the rotation, but does not really need one. In a pinch, Luke Walton can slide up from the three and bang for a few minutes while it is not his strength. Walton is a proficient passer who flourishes in the Lakers’ system as a role player. Shannon Brown will get a few minutes at the swingman spots as a source of energy and defense while Sasha Vujacic fits in at the two as a shooter with Bryant sliding to the point, as well as a defensive pest who gets under the skin of opposing players. Vujacic did slide from 43.7 percent to 36.3 percent behind the arc last year, so a bounceback year would give opponents even more concerns. Jordan Farmar is still trying to carve out a role as a backup point guard. An erratic jump shot is holding him back, but simply playing consistently would help him earn minutes.

PHOENIX SUNS

ADDITIONS: F Earl Clark, F/C Channing Frye

SUBTRACTIONS: G/F Matt Barnes, C Shaquille O’Neal, F/C Ben Wallace

STARTERS: PG – Steve Nash, SG – Jason Richardson, SF – Grant Hill, PF – Channing Frye, C – Amar’e Stoudemire

ROTATION: G Leandro Barbosa, F Earl Clark, G Goran Dragic, F Jared Dudley, F/C Robin Lopez

OUTLOOK: What Mike D’Antoni hath built, let Terry Porter tear apart. Terry Porter lasted a grand total of 51 games as the head man of the Suns and, in the interest of trying to integrate Shaquille O’Neal into the team, shifted the team to a halfcourt offense, thinking it was the O’Neal of five years ago instead of the aging superstar that he is. That’s not entirely fair, however, as the front office made the attempt to swing for the fences by trading for the Big Cactus. In any case, Alvin Gentry, a holdover assistant coach from the D’Antoni days, looks to rev things back up. Gentry was only 18-13 after replacing Porter, but was missing Amar’e Stoudemire for all but two of those contests. The return of a healthy Stoudemire should make a major difference.
Former two-time Most Valuable Player Steve Nash should welcome the return of uptempo basketball, as Nash was the man who made everything click. Nash is perhaps the premier shooter in the NBA, making the “50-40-90 Club” last season with a little wiggle room. Re-energized by the return to the fastbreak offense after the All-Star break, Nash closed strong last year with 18.7 points per game on 54.8 percent shooting from the floor and lifting his assist-to-turnover ratio from 2.58-to-1 to 3.62-to-1. Jason Richardson should threaten the three-point shooting title, which he won two seasons ago after making 243 treys as a Bobcat. Like Nash, Richardson will also clean up in transition, having improved his shooting percentage from 45.7 to 50.8 percent after the coaching change. As he did two years ago, Grant Hill will pick up some of the ballhandling duties when Nash rests while slotted in the small forward spot. Hill remains an efficient scorer with the ability to drive and finish as well as provide fair defense on the wing. Channing Frye gets a shot at winning a starting spot for the season with an injury to Robin Lopez to start the season. Frye is a finesse player, but has developed his shooting touch nicely, including leading the Suns in three-point buckets and three-point percentage in the preseason. His range will offset Hill’s lack of the same and enable the team to spread things out to leave the key open for Amar’e Stoudemire. Coming off surgery on his eye, Stoudemire will have the challenge of not only returning to health (and adjusting to wearing goggles full-time on the court), but the opportunity to return to being a dominant force. Stoudemire’s game took a step back while sharing the interior with Shaquille O’Neal and a return to the prior season’s 25-per-game scoring average is possible in the lightning quick offense.
Robin Lopez broke a bone in his foot early this month, opening the lineup spot for Frye. Upon his return in December, Lopez will have to earn his way back into the lineup, hopefully building on the promise he showed in extended minutes in the final week of last season. Rookie Earl Clark will have a crack at minutes from the jump as the primary big man off the bench early in the season. The 6’9” rookie showed the ability to do a little bit of everything in an uptempo style at Louisville and the Suns are hoping for a fairly quick transition to the NBA game. Jared Dudley will get a shot at bigger minutes this season after getting a chance to show what he is capable of doing after coming over from Charlotte with Richardson last year. His per-minute rates went up last year with Phoenix, likely due in major part due to the breakneck pace of the Suns, but he also showed an ability to hit the three consistently to complement the glue guy skills he exhibited in college. Leandro Barbosa should enjoy the return to running and gunning, as befitting his “Brazilian Blur” moniker. Barbosa is one of the best transition scorers in the league and also uses his footspeed to pluck steals from careless foes. Goran Dragic will back up Nash again after showing improvement under Gentry. While not ready for major minutes, Dragic illustrated the value in easy buckets and confidence, showing significant statistical gains, but needs to take care of the ball better to keep his job and not let Barbosa get the minutes at the point when Nash rests.

SACRAMENTO KINGS

ADDITIONS: F Jon Brockman, F Omri Casspi, G Tyreke Evans, G/F Desmond Mason, F Sean May

SUBTRACTIONS: F Ike Diogu

STARTERS: PG – Tyreke Evans, SG – Kevin Martin, SF – Andres Nocioni, PF – Jason Thompson, C – Spencer Hawes

ROTATION: F Omri Casspi, G/F Francisco Garcia, F Donte Greene, G/F Desmond Mason, F Sean May, G Sergio Rodriguez, G Beno Udrih

OUTLOOK: Simply put, things went terribly for the Sacramento Kings last year. After suffering through a pair of eight-game losing streaks and a nine-game skid on their way to winning a mere 17 games, they managed to do as poorly as possible after getting the most ping-pong balls in the lottery, ending up with the number four pick. Hey, at least they have Paul Westphal as their head coach.
With that fourth pick, the Kings selected Tyreke Evans out of Memphis. While not a true point, Evans has very good size, strength, and quickness, which should enable him to contribute on forays to the bucket while learning the point guard craft, such as going to his left. Evans also needs to extend his consistent shooting range. Kevin Martin will join Evans in the backcourt after missing a couple months last season. One of the most effective scorers in the league, Martin averaged 24.6 points per game last season, netting nine points per game at the line. His all-around game is not at the same level as his offense, but his long-distance shooting certainly is after hitting a team-high 115 triples in a short season. Andres Nocioni should start at small forward and provide some attitude to the team. After coming over from Chicago last year, Nocioni got a bigger role and he responded with a small uptick in his play. The Kings have a young pair of post players who have major potential, but still need to work out the rough spots in their games. As a rookie, Jason Thompson was the only King to appear in every game and led the league in fouls committed with 314. His play was not all bad, though, as Thompson started the final 46 games of the season, averaging 12.6 points and 7.9 rebounds in that span. Spencer Hawes saw action in 77 contests as a sophomore, getting the starting nod 51 times. Like his fellow frontcourt mate, Hawes was a strong closer, as well, averaging 13.2 points, 8.1 rebounds and 1.0 blocks per night from the beginning of February to the close of the season. Hawes also adds some shooting range, as he buried 40 three-pointers on the season.
Beno Udrih started last season at the point and will likely see minutes there with Evans and Martin sliding to the wings. Udrih was a decent point guard, but nothing special, thus leading to Evans’ selection. Sergio Rodriguez comes south from Portland and will get a chance to beat out Udrih. Rodriguez, sometimes called “Spanish Chocolate due to his flashy play, is an excellent passer, but an indifferent defender and poor shooter. Francisco Garcia suffered an injury while working out before the season that will put him on the shelf until roughly the All-Star Break, so Desmond Mason will get minutes at the swingman spots. Mason is no longer the high-flyer he was during his younger days and lacks the shooting range to be a multi-faceted offensive threat. This year’s first-round pick Omri Casspi and last year’s first-round pick Donte Greene will compete for minutes at both forward spots. Casspi is more of a three with his shooting range, having made ten treys in his first seven preseason contests, but also plays a hard-nosed style of defense. Greene combines height with length and a scorer’s mentality, but did not show much last season other than difficulty adjusting to the NBA game. Greene made only 32.6 percent of his shots and 26.0 percent from three, so he needs to pick up the other facets of his game to make up for these weaknesses. Sean May comes over from Charlotte after appearing in 82 games… in his first four seasons. A solid rebounder and efficient low-post scorer when available his first two seasons, May will get a chance to contribute as an undersized reserve center.

PROJECTED DIVISION STANDINGS:
1. Los Angeles Lakers
2. Phoenix Suns
3. Los Angeles Clippers
4. Golden State Warriors
5. Sacramento Kings

The Lakers have much higher goals than Pacific Division Champions and will hardly notice when they cruise to that feat. Phoenix should be able to run and gun again with Nash and a revitalized Stoudemire and will be in the hunt for a postseason berth, as well as a likely comfortable second-place finish. The improved Clippers should be able to threaten for a postseason berth if they are healthy and Baron Davis is in shape and focused. The Warriors will be an entertaining, dysfunctional squad throughout the campaign. The Kings have the worst assemblage of talent in the league outside of the teams from the upper midwest.

DENVER NUGGETS

ADDITIONS: G Arron Afflalo, F Malik Allen, G Ty Lawson

SUBTRACTIONS: G/F Dahntay Jones, F Linas Kleiza

STARTERS: PG – Chauncey Billups, SG – JR Smith, SF – Carmelo Anthony, PF – Kenyon Martin, C – Nene

ROTATION: G Arron Afflalo, F Malik Allen, F/C Chris Andersen, G/F Renaldo Balkman, G Anthony Carter

OUTLOOK: The Nuggets profited greatly from the Chauncey Billups trade last year, vaulting to their first Western Conference Finals appearance since 1984-85. Billups’ acquisition also drove the Nuggets to the 54-win plateau, tying the franchise’s best effort since joining the NBA. The team returns almost intact, so expectations will be high in the Mile High City. (Cheeseball sportswriter “cleverness” overuse count: one.)
Billups led the surge to the top of the Northwest Division, averaging 17.9 points and 6.4 assists after coming over from Detroit. “Mr. Big Shot” also enjoyed his role as an outside shooter, making 162 treys on the season. JR Smith will join Billups in the starting rotation once his seven-game suspension for offcourt chicanery (he served 24 days in prison this summer for reckless driving in 2007). Smith will be the designated bomber for the Nuggets after splashing a team-high 180 triples last season and gives the team five double-figure scorers in their starting unit. Carmelo Anthony is the lead dog for Denver and hopes to be healthy after missing sixteen contests last season. With a little more scoring burden lifted by Smith’s presence in the starting lineup, Anthony should return from last season’s 44.3 percent field goal shooting to something more along the lines of the 48.3 percent he averaged over the course of the three previous campaigns, which would also return him to the 25-point per game plateau. Like Anthony, Kenyon Martin also missed sixteen games last season. The defensive ace should start to slow down as he approaches the back end of his career, but he is still tough on both ends and unwilling to back down. Nene flourished in a return to a full-time starting role, tallying 14.6 points and 7.8 rebounds per game while finishing second in the league at 60.4 percent from the field. Fantasy players, be aware that the Brazilian also averaged over a steal and a block per game and should be capable of lifting his rebounding totals closer to double-double territory.
With Smith’s promotion to the lineup, there is no instant offense coming off the bench, but there are a couple defensive stoppers on the wing. Arron Afflalo comes over from Detroit and will offer the ability to guard at the two with range that must be respected. Afflalo improved his shooting from deep from 20.8 percent as a rookie to 40.2 percent as a soph, so he seems to know the role he needs to carve out for himself. Renaldo Balkman saw action in 56 games for Denver last season, including ten starts. Balkman will never be confused with being a shooter, but stays within his offensive comfort zone while being an energetic defensive pest. Picking up the spare minutes that Billups does not play is Anthony Carter, who does a solid job of running the team in his limited minutes. Carter averaged 7.3 assists per 36 minutes, which is actually more than Billups. Malik Allen will play the four and Chris Andersen will occupy minutes at both frontcourt spots off the bench. Allen does a little bit of everything, but just has not been asked to do so on the offensive end in nearly two years. That will not change in his sixth NBA stop. Andersen is an excellent fit for this uptempo team, as his strengths are in shotblocking and transition offense. “The Birdman” was second in the league at 2.5 blocks per game in limited duty. More impressive was that he averaged 4.3 blocks (and a team-best 10.9 rebounds) per 36 minutes.

MINNESOTA TIMBERWOLVES

ADDITIONS: C Mark Blount, G Wayne Ellington, G Jonny Flynn, C Ryan Hollins, G Ramon Sessions, G Damien Wilkins

SUBTRACTIONS: G Randy Foye, F Mike Miller, F Craig Smith, G Sebastian Telfair

STARTERS: PG – Ramon Sessions, SG – Corey Brewer, SF – Ryan Gomes, PF – Kevin Love, C – Al Jefferson

ROTATION: G Wayne Ellington, G Jonny Flynn, C Ryan Hollins, G/F Sasha Pavlovic, G/F Damien Wilkins

OUTLOOK: The Timberwolves are committing to a longterm rebuilding program, so Kurt Rambis will have his job safe no matter how poor the team’s record. And it will be poor. This is not to say the roster is void of talent, but there is just a long way to climb for this young team as they build for the future. It also does not help that Ricky Rubio will be playing in Europe. There is not much point in having the number five pick in the draft if you will not get anything out of it, other than the ability to trade away your starting shooting guard (Randy Foye) and small forward (Mike Miller).
The leader of this pack is Al Jefferson, who will turn 25 as the All-Star Game approaches. Hopefully, at that time, Jefferson will fully be over the torn ACL he suffered last year, as well as the Achilles tendonitis that is nagging him in the preseason. Jefferson was simply a load down low, ringing up 23.1 points and 11.0 rebounds per game while shooting a touch below 50 percent from the floor. He will be less of a load this year, though, as Jefferson also lost 31 pounds over the summer, which should help alleviate the stress on his knee and heel. Jefferson’s running mate will be Kevin Love, or at least will be when he returns from a broken hand that will likely sideline him into November. Love is an excellent rebounder (12.9 boards per 36 minutes last season), but the injury is likely to affect his solid outside shooting and hurt his attempts to extend his range to the three-point-line. Ryan Gomes is a solid player who appeared in every game and started 76 times. Gomes has worked hard on his overall game since arriving in the league and made 106 treys last year, 28 more than in his first three full seasons combined. Corey Brewer is back from an injury that cost him most of his season and will be counted on to be a stopper on the wing. Brewer’s offense is well behind his defense, though, and he should remain within his strengths on that end. Ramon Sessions was a late free agent signing and will start at the point. Sessions is a better point than his reputation and does a solid job taking care of the ball (2.97-to-1 assist-to-turnover ratio) while still scoring at a good pace. Sessions is not a good outside shooter, though, as evidenced by his nine career triples.
Jonny Flynn, the top-six point guard that the Timberwolves drafted who will suit up for Minnesota this season, could actually nudge Brewer out of the starting lineup and Sessions to the two. Flynn is a very good pick-and-roll player who will rely on his quickness until his outside shooting catches up. Flynn should also develop into a solid on-the-ball pest after having played mostly zone at Syracuse. The team has three wing players to pick from in Wayne Ellington, Sasha Pavlovic, and Damien Wilkins. Ellington, the rookie, will probably have to wait his turn and earn his minutes. Pavlovic is the more polished outside player of the two veterans and has a little bit of attitude to go with his outside stroke. Hopefully for the Wolves, Pavlovic will carry over his “odd year” three-point shooting percentage (39.1 percent in three seasons – ’05, ’07, ’09) to an even year (31.4 percent in ’04, ’06, and ’08). Wilkins has been a sometime starter in his five NBA seasons, and can earn minutes with his defensive effort. The only big man who is certain to get minutes is Ryan Hollins, the former Bobcat and Maverick who is limited on offense, but a pretty fair rebounder and brings size. While Love is out, Flynn may get promoted to the starting lineup, pushing Sessions to the two, Brewer to the three, and Gomes to the four. It would be a small group, but with two players with point guard skills, the team may look to counteract its lack of size by looking for opportunities to go uptempo.

OKLAHOMA CITY THUNDER

ADDITIONS: G James Harden, G Kevin Ollie, C Etan Thomas

SUBTRACTIONS: G Chucky Atkins, G Earl Watson, G/F Damien Wilkins

STARTERS: PG – Russell Westbrook, SG – Thabo Sefolosha, SF – Kevin Durant, PF – Jeff Green, C – Nenad Krstic

ROTATION: F/C Nick Collison, G James Harden, G Kevin Ollie, F/C Etan Thomas, G/F Kyle Weaver

OUTLOOK: The results have not been good over the past two years (43 wins combined), but the seeds that have been planted should be flowering soon. Sam Presti has been patient, growing the team slowly, looking for steady growth for long-term benefits and resisting the need to throw money for quick changes to boost the franchise’s fortunes. (Bill Simmons and your ill-advised man-crush on David Lee for eight million per year, I’m looking in your direction. The reason why you love Presti is the reason why he would never throw that money at something that isn’t much more than a one-trick pony.) This is the year when dividends start to be paid.
Kevin Durant, welcome to center stage. The pressure could be higher on the 21-year-old, but that would only be the case if the Thunder were supposed to be a playoff contender. Instead, it is up to Durant to improve on his mind-boggling sophomore numbers (25.3 points, 6.5 rebounds, 2.8 assists per game, 47.6 percent from the field, 42.2 percent from deep, and 86.3 percent at the line). Joining the “50-40-90 Club” could happen, but the team would be well-served for him to become a better all-around player. Jeff Green flanks Durant at the four and does a little bit of everything, finishing second on the team in scoring (16.5 pts/game), rebounding (6.7 per game), and threes (97). Not bad for a player who turned 23 a month ago. Nenad Krstic will man the middle after joining the team in midseason last year. In 46 games (29 starts), Krstic posted averages of 14.0 points, 8.0 rebounds, and 1.5 blocks per 36 minutes, so he should get penciled in for 30 minutes per night. Russell Westbrook played in every game as a rookie, including 65 starts at the point. While he had a lousy shooting year (39.8 percent from the field and 27.1 from deep) and turned the ball over too frequently (3.3 turnovers per game, 1.59-to-1 assist-to-turnover ratio), Westbrook logged a ton of minutes and should be more comfortable in his sophomore campaign. Thabo Sefolosha will again fill his role as an energetic defender after coming over from Chicago last year. A guy from Switzerland who averaged 1.7 steals and 1.1 blocks per game for the Thunder is dying for a very obvious nickname.
One reason Sefolosha lacks that obvious name is that he is probably not long for the starting lineup. Oklahoma City’s fourth collegiate lottery pick in the last three drafts is James Harden from Arizona State, a lefty with the “old man’s game” and good shooting range. Harden will likely take over the two at some point during the season. Kevin Ollie will be Westbrook’s tutor and fill a dozen minutes per night with his steady play. Kyle Weaver is another young player who, like Sefolosha, can play both swingman spots and will earn minutes with his defensive play. Weaver needs to work on his offensive consistency, but is willing to stick his nose into things and grind on the defensive end. Nick Collison and Etan Thomas will share minutes at the four and five off the bench. Collison is a rock, averaging around eight and seven while doing a lot of work on the offensive glass, averaging an offensive board every ten minutes on the court. That is fairly impressive for a man who spent a lot of time last season being overmatched at center. Thomas returns to his home state after missing the last three months of his final season with the Wizards. Never an effective scorer, Thomas provides toughness and a deterrent at the rim.

PORTLAND TRAIL BLAZERS

ADDITIONS: G Andre Miller

SUBTRACTIONS: F/C Channing Frye, G Sergio Rodriguez

STARTERS: PG – Steve Blake, SG – Brandon Roy, SF – Nicolas Batum, PF – LaMarcus Aldridge, C – Joel Przybilla

ROTATION: G Rudy Fernandez, G Andre Miller, C Greg Oden, F Travis Outlaw, G/F Martell Webster

OUTLOOK: Who likes their teams trending up and adding talent? You’ve come to the right place. Portland has increased their win total on each of the last three seasons, going from 21 victories in 2005-06 to last year’s 54 wins and return to the postseason. The team since added to the weakest position on the roster and, should they all get acclimated to each other and their roles, the Blazers should reach even higher levels.
Brandon Roy has been to a couple All-Star games already and solidified himself as Portland’s go-to player. Roy handles the ball in late game situations on top of his do-everything game, having led the team in points (22.6/game), assists (5.1/game), and steals (88). Roy will be joined in the starting backcourt by Steve Blake, whose steady hand, deep range, and familiarity with the team are keeping him in front of Andre Miller, the team’s big-name offseason acquisition, in the team’s rotation for the start of the game. Blake was right behind Roy in assists (5.0/game) while carding a 3.22-to-1 assist-to-turnover ratio and buried 140 threes at a 42.7 percent clip, so, while he has limitations (size, defense), Blake certainly known his role and stays within it. Nicolas Batum will start at the small forward spot, just as he did 76 times last year as a 20-year-old rookie. He will likely get limited minutes again due to the overflowing depth at the wing, but provides good defense with a developing offensive arsenal. LaMarcus Aldridge’s smooth stroke from the mid-range should get him penciled in for another eighteen points per game. It would be helpful if his long, lean frame could grab more than 7.3 rebounds per 36 minutes, which is well below what a 6’11” player should grab, especially one who just signed a contract extension for close to maximum money. Joel Przybilla again is penciled in at the pivot, but he should get a reduced role this season. This is not a knock on Przybilla’s game, as he is a consummate pro who grabs 13.2 rebounds per 36 minutes. It is more a remark about the health and advancement of Greg Oden.
Oden has entered the season healthy and reportedly in significantly better shape than last year. Oden, who posted some pretty fair per-minute numbers last year (14.8 points, 11.6 rebounds, 1.9 blocks per 36 minutes), has been even better in this preseason, hanging 22.8 points, 15.6 rebounds, and 2.1 blocks per 36 minutes. Fouls are still an issue for the developing young big man, but he should have a coming out party this season. Andre Miller will likely take over the point guard duties during the season, as the Blazers didn’t sign him to a three-year, $21 million contract to have him back up Blake or even have a timeshare role. Miller can run an offense and, with the Blazers’ diverse group, should be an excellent floor leader, especially if he can be coaxed into pushing the ball. Rudy Fernandez will play some at both guard spots, as he can be paired with either Miller or Roy with no worries. Fernandez paced the Blazers with 159 threes last season, which is a good thing considering how 63 percent of his field goal attempts came from behind the big boy line. Martell Webster is back after missing all but five minutes of last season. Webster was a developing three-point shooter on the wing, having made 123 treys two seasons ago at a 38.8 percent clip. Travis Outlaw can play at either forward spot and provides the ability to stretch the defense at the four. Mostly coming off the bench, Outlaw has been good for double figure scoring the last two seasons and more than doubled his three-point output last season, jumping from 40 to 89 in just 60 more minutes on the floor.

UTAH JAZZ

ADDITIONS: G Eric Maynor

SUBTRACTIONS: none

STARTERS: PG – Deron Williams, SG – Ronnie Brewer, SF – Andrei Kirilenko, PF – Carlos Boozer, C – Mehmet Okur

ROTATION: C Kyrylo Fesenko, F Matt Harpring, G/F Kyle Korver, C Kosta Koufos, G/F CJ Miles, F Paul Millsap, G Ronnie Price

OUTLOOK: It shouldn’t come as much of a surprise that the team whose head coach is entering his 22nd season at the helm brings back almost literally the same cast it had the year previous. However, continuity has been a good thing for the Jazz, as Sloan has posted a winning record 20 times in his 21 seasons. If the Jazz can remain healthy this year, they should bounce back from last year’s “down year” of only 48 wins and threaten for the division title again.
Carlos Boozer returns from an injury that cost him 45 games last year and, if he can contribute at his normal level (18.0 points, 11.6 rebounds per game last year), both he and the Jazz should forget the hard feelings they may have for one another. Boozer will turn 28 in a month and is in a contract year, so he undoubtedly will be looking to cash in on his opportunity. Mehmet Okur will play next to Boozer in the frontcourt, metaphorically speaking. The Turkish pivot is perhaps the man most responsible for Boozer having room to operate down low, as he made 90 treys at a 44.6 percent clip. Okur, however, does help Boozer on the glass, pulling down 7.7 boards per night. Andrei Kirilenko may get the opportunity to regain his spot in the starting lineup, as injuries have opened the way for the Russian to start again. Kirilenko started only ten times last year, but is still a defensive pest and provides additional length on the floor. Ronnie Brewer is back at the two guard spot after tallying 13.7 points per game last season. Most of those points came on slashes to the basket, either in the halfcourt or in transition, as Brewer relies on his athleticism for most of his game, which included last year’s team-best 138 steals. Deron Williams is the engine that makes the team go at the point. Williams is one of the best point guards in the game, having led the team with 19.4 points and 10.7 assists per game last year while burying 84.9 percent of his charity tosses.
Boozer may be allowed to walk away at the end of the season due to Paul Millsap being signed for four years and $32 million, including over ten million already paid out. Millsap is an excellent replacement at the four, as his per-minute rates nearly match those of Boozer, only it takes Millsap fewer shots to score almost as much and he also is a better shotblocker. Kosta Koufos and Kyrylo Fesenko both will get a chance to back up Okur, but with the two power forwards able to play the five for a few minutes, each of the youngsters will have to earn their opportunities. Both seven-footers are on the underside of 25, so they should both get a chance to develop. On reason the two youngsters will get a bigger shot at court time is Matt Harpring is suffering from ongoing ankle and knee problems that may cause his retirement. If healthy, Harpring can play either forward position and is closer to being a three, but his effort and heart make up for any other shortcomings. The man who would be the starter at the three is CJ Miles, who had to get a torn ligament repaired in his thumb and will not start rehab until the season is a couple weeks old. Miles started 72 games last year at the age of 21 and was a nice complementary player. Should his three-point stroke continue to develop, Miles should establish himself as a mainstay for Utah. Kyle Korver is the designated long distance swingman after making 103 threes last year. Should Korver get his percentage from deep over 40 percent (which isn’t a stretch – he shot 38.8 percent last year), he may see more playing time over the course of the season, which could help his confidence even more. Ronnie Price will get the scraps at the point. Price is not much of a scorer and his frequent turnovers offset his ability to set up his mates.

PROJECTED DIVISION STANDINGS:
1. Portland
2. Utah
3. Denver
4. Oklahoma City
5. Minnesota

Portland seems stacked after its addition of Andre Miller and Greg Oden’s offseason improvement added to Brandon Roy’s all-around brilliance. Utah should ride the return of Carlos Boozer and Deron Williams’ continued improvement back above the 50-win plateau. The Nuggets got 143 games out of Kenyon Martin and Nene last year, which seems a little too high this season, and, with less focus on defense, should fall to third place. Oklahoma City will be a miserable matchup for any team by New Year’s, but is still a year away from the postseason. It will be a long, cost season in Minnesota and the team will target an electric scoring swingman in the lottery.