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1. Albert Pujols, 1B, SLN: 700 PA, 47 HR, 16 SB, .327/.443/.658
2. Hanley Ramirez, SS, FLO: 652 PA, 24 HR, 27 SB, .342/.410/.543
3. Chase Utley, 2B, PHI: 687 PA, 31 HR, 23 SB, .282/.397/.508
4. Troy Tulowitzki, SS, COL: 628 PA, 32 HR, 20 SB, .297/.377/.552
5. Tim Lincecum, SP, SFN: 15-7, 225.3 IP, 2.48 ERA, 28.8% SO%, 3.5 SO/FP
6. Prince Fielder, 1B, MIL: 719 PA, 46 HR, 2 SB, .299/.412/.602
7. Ryan Zimmerman, 3B, WAS: 694 PA, 33 HR, 2 SB, .292/.364/.525
8. Adrian Gonzalez, 1B, SDN: 681 PA, 40 HR, 1 SB, .277/.407/.551
9. Pablo Sandoval, 3B, SFN: 633 PA, 25 HR, 5 SB, .330/.387/.556
10. Matt Kemp, CF, LAN: 667 PA, 26 HR, 34 SB, .297/.352/.490

Its a Thanksgiving travel day so I don’t have a ton of time to analyze so just two quick points …

While I think this is Pujols’ award, I’d love to go a couple years in the future and see if defensive valuations have advanced to the point where we can accurately quantify defensive runs saved. I imagine we’ll eventually look back at some of the offense only MVP winners and realize that there was a two-way player who was far more important to his team. Not to say anything negative about Pujols’ defense, and quantifying 1B defense is so tough as it is, but a great defensive 1B doesn’t equal a great defensive 2B. I sort of wanted to go with Utley here as a nod to what I expect to eventually see but, at this point, the numbers don’t support it.

It seems to have gone somewhat unnoticed but Troy Tulowitzki had an absolutely outstanding season. He has to either be at the back end of a list of top 10 players to start a team with or just outside the cut. And he just turned 25 in October.

1. Joe Mauer, C, MIN: 606 PA, 28 HR, 4 SB, .365/.444/.587
2. Derek Jeter, SS, NYA: 716 PA, 18 HR, 30 SB, .334/.406/.465
3. Ben Zobrist, 2B, TBA: 599 PA, 27 HR, 17 SB, .297/.405/.543
4. Zack Greinke, SP, KCA: 16-8, 229.3 IP, 2.16 ERA, 26.4% SO%, 4.4 SO/FP
5. Felix Hernandez, SP, SEA: 19-5, 238.7 IP, 2.49 ERA, 22.2% SO%, 2.7 SO/FP
6. Evan Longoria, 3B, TBA: 671 PA, 33 HR, 9 SB, .281/.364/.526
7. Roy Halladay, SP, TOR: 17-10, 239.0 IP, 2.79 ERA, 21.6% SO%, 5.2 SO/FP
8. Kevin Youkilis, 1B, BOS: 588 PA, 27 HR, 7 SB, .305/.413/.548
9. Mark Teixeira, 1B, NYA: 707 PA, 39 HR, 2 SB, .292/.383/.565
10. Shin-Soo Choo, RF, CLE: 685 PA, 20 HR, 21 SB, .300/.394/.489

Nothing much to say here: Joe Mauer will sweep the first place votes and win the MVP after leading the American League in all three slash stats. Heading into his age 27 season, Mauer is the current best bet among this generation to go down as the “Best MLB _______ Ever” from this generation. Granted he is not close to that label after only five major league seasons, but with his health (both long-term ability to stay behind the plate and short-term ability to put up consistent 600 PA seasons) he has a tremendous chance.

(I know that sounds like hyperbole, but check out a list of top MLB catchers at some point. It’s Johnny Bench and Yogi Berra then a pretty major dropoff to the next tier. If Mauer maintains his 2009 power and gets on base at a .400 clip (as he has for 3 of the last 4 seasons), after another five seasons, he’s in the discussion for third place. After that, recalling that Bench had a 13 year prime and Berra had 15 years, he’s becomes a part of the best ever discussion. I realize I just forecasted out a decade here, but talent isn’t the question, it’s whether a 6’5 catcher can hold up for another 10 years. Not a 50/50 proposition, but interesting all the same.)

Derek Jeter will again miss out on getting the MVP trophy that would cap off his stellar career. Jeter earned it in 1999 but the voters decided the Yankees as a team were too great for an individual award and honored a catcher who hit more HRs but also made a ton more outs. In 2006, the year of the RBI, the voters again blew it and missed making up for Jeter’s earlier snub in a more tightly contested battle with Mauer and a few designated hitters (and the 1B who won it, a down-ballot player in terms of actual value). This year, Jeter shouldn’t win but is again a legitimate top three finisher and Yankees fans can’t help but believe this will be his last good chance. Jeter turns 36 next season and even a repeat of 2009 seems pretty farfetched.

Ben Zobrist should finish either second or third but could finish out of the top ten entirely because his year will either be under-noticed or deemed a one year aberration. Even if it does turn out to be an aberration, Zobrist’s .400 OBP and near .250 isoP while playing a stellar 2B is one of the best full season flukes in recent memory. I give Jeter the runner-up nod because of the over 100 PA advantage and positional difference, but I wouldn’t have complaints about any voter who picked Zobrist instead.

The rest of the ballot is, frankly, boring. No other up-the-middle players had seasons without flaws (Jason Bartlett’s flaw being that his small number of PAs wiped out enough value to knock him out of the top 10) so it just became an exercise in ranking the power hitting corners and slotting in the starting pitchers. The one thing I can never figure out when doing this is where the pitchers should be. Prevailing logic is that pitchers aren’t as valuable as hitters since they can only affect one of every five games but, while this is true, their potential effect per game is far greater than a hitter’s can be. One thing that does favor pitchers is a sum total of events: In 2009 Aaron Hill led AL hitters with 734 PAs while Justin Verlander led AL pitchers with 982 PAs against. In fact, 28 AL pitchers had more or as many PAs against as Hill had PAs. Hitting bias also isn’t results driven, both anecdotally and factually. We’ve all heard the defense wins championships mantra in most sports and, over the past decade, that’s proven true in baseball. Runs allowed by a team correlates more closely to win percentage (.675) than runs scored (.586). That correlation holds up both in total for the decade and for nine of the ten individual years with only 2004 (the ultimate fluke season, it appears) showing wins more dependent on offense. While not all of run prevention is pitching, the overall variance between scored and saved is probably enough to suggest that top pitching is equal to top hitting and defense should push those top hitters above or below the top pitchers. In the end, it would just make sense to have separate awards where the MVP is given to the best hitter or where a 3rd award is added for hitters with the MVP remaining a hybrid. However, since this is still viewed as an offensive award, I just followed the pack and split it out 7/3.

1. Tim Lincecum, SP, SFN: 15-7, 225.3 IP, 2.48 ERA, 28.8% SO%, 3.5 SO/FP
2. Adam Wainwright, SP, SLN: 19-8, 233.0 IP, 2.63 ERA, 21.9% SO%, 3.1 SO/FP
3. Chris Carpenter, SP, SLN: 17-4, 192.7 IP, 2.24 ERA, 19.2% SO%, 3.2 SO/FP
4. Javier Vazquez, SP, ATL: 15-10, 219.3 IP, 2.87 ERA, 27.2% SO%, 5.0 SO/FP
5. Dan Haren, SP, ARI: 14-10, 229.3 IP, 3.14 ERA, 24.5% SO%, 5.3 SO/FP
6. Matt Cain, SP, SFN: 14-8, 217.7 IP, 2.89 ERA, 19.3% SO%, 2.3 SO/FP
7. Jair Jurrjens, SP, ATL: 14-10, 215.0 IP, 2.60 ERA, 17.2% SO%, 1.9 SO/FP
8. Wandy Rodriguez, SP, HOU: 14-12, 205.7 IP, 3.02 ERA, 22.7% SO%, 2.8 SO/FP
9. Josh Johnson, SP, FLO: 15-5, 209.0 IP, 3.23 ERA, 22.3% SO%, 3.0 SO/FP
10. Ubaldo Jimenez, SP, COL: 15-12, 218.0 IP, 3.47 ERA, 21.7% SO%, 2.1 SO/FP

For the most part, the AL voters got it right. I don’t understand the logic of filling out a ballot where you award 1st and 2nd to the guys with top ERAs but then 3rd to a wins driven candidate when there’s still one more guy with a great ERA. Still, they got 1-2 correct and didn’t have any ridiculous additions to the final tally so I won’t complain much. Just like the American League, the National League falls into distinct tiers where the top tier should get all of the 1st and 2nd place votes and the next tier should fill out the rest of the ballot (the AL’s 2nd tier went three deep, the NL only goes two).

Up until last night, I was thinking this is Tim Lincecum’s award and anyone else would be a mistake. I’ve softened that stance since really looking into the numbers. It’s not a simple valuation decision here like in the AL; using runs saved against replacement, Lincecum, Adam Wainwright and Chris Carpenter are all within a single run of each other for the season. (For comparison’s sake, Greinke was a full 10 runs better than both Hernandez and Halladay.) So while it’s not the no-brainer the other three major awards are, I give the nod to Lincecum after factoring in peripherals: He once again led the league in strikeouts, finished runner-up in ERA and third in innings pitched. (Thankfully Lincecum’s pot arrest took place after the ballots were submitted; the only thing that would annoy me more than voters valuing the wrong statistics would be voters choosing morality over statistics. That said, expect atleast one voter to disavow his selection on the basis of trumped-up moral outrage sometime today or tomorrow and for that (non-)story to carry ESPN into college football this weekend.)

Wainwright versus Carpenter is a really tough call. Again using my baseline for runs saved over replacement, they’re within only 0.04 runs of each other but arrived there via very different means while pitching for the same team. Wainwright threw 40 more innings than Carpenter (the equivalent of almost 4.5 full games) but also allowed 26 more runs. An argument for either one is legitimate; it’s safe to assume that Carpenter wouldn’t have pitched to an ERA of nearly 6.00 had he matched Wainwright’s innings but, on the flipside, he didn’t match Wainwright’s innings meaning a lesser pitcher had to make up the difference. In the end, I went with Wainwright and I’m not proud to admit that I may not have been able to get past Carpenter’s failure to reach the magical 200 innings mark. Atleast it isn’t based on wins, right? (Of course, had Carpenter pitched 200 innings he would have had more RSOR than Wainwright and thus won the statistical battle so I can somewhat justify my innings volume complaint. Somewhat.)

I could go on for hours about just how underrated Javier Vazquez is. He followed up a 2008 season where he ranked 9th in innings and 4th in strikeouts in the American League with a 2009 season ranking 5th in innings, 6th in ERA and 2nd in strikeouts in the National League. In doing so, he walked/hit only 48 batters all season for a SO/FP of 5.0, a marked topped by only two other 200+ inning pitchers (Halladay and Haren). His combination of dominating stuff, impeccable control and durability (10 straight seasons of atleast 198 innings pitched) should merit discussion along side the game’s top starters but instead he’s either ignored (just one All-Star Game) or derided for one terrible half season in New York. One year after being dealt for prospects, Vazquez is again the subject of trade rumors but Atlanta would be wise to retain him; trading an undervalued asset rarely works out in a team’s favor and a near guarantee of 200 above average innings is tough to replace.

Dan Haren matches Javier Vazquez’s ability to combine high strikeout totals with low walk totals while consistently pitching every fifth day but does a much better job with runners on base. As such, he just completed his second season in Arizona, not at all a pitcher friendly home park, with an ERA again under 3.35. Signed for the next three years at just under $34MM (plus a club option / buyout), Haren is among the best cost certain values in all of baseball.

Matt Cain’s season was similar to Justin Verlander in that he finally fulfilled the expectations he’d carried since reaching the majors, although he did so without the same upper echelon peripherals. In fact, his SO/FP/GB percentages almost perfectly match Joe Blanton, although Cain’s stuff is certainly much better. He is yet another pitcher whose path to success may become more clear as Hit f/x data is more readily available.

Jair Jurrjens : NL :: Jon Danks : AL … I have no real analysis here. Nothing about his statline indicates he should be improving on a strong rookie year ERA but improve he did, by a full run per game down to 2.60. I’m still not convinced he’s going to be a long-term #1/#2; a pitcher with merely average peripherals, a low HR rate despite no heavy GB tendencies and a relatively high unearned run rate is probably looking at some future regression. Of course, its worth noting I would have said that same thing last year, too.

If your first impression of Wandy Rodriguez was to watch him throw a single inning, completely free of context, you’d assume he was a top back-end lefty (a half-sized Mike Gonzalez perhaps). A small, somewhat slight pitcher with a strange motion and deceptive fastball, he doesn’t look like the type who could hold up throwing 200 innings per season but he did just that in 2009. In some ways, Rodriguez is the anti-Jon Garland as Garland is a guy who looks like an ace standing on the mound but doesn’t have the stuff or results to match. Rodriguez will likely always be a bit overlooked but what he did this year wasn’t a statistical fluke (he ranked 7th in the NL among pitchers with 180+ innings in SO%, 10th in SO/FP). If he simply maintains his current level in 2010, he’ll be right back on this list next year.

Josh Johnson emerged as the trendy new, nationally noticed pitcher of the 2009 season. Having missed most of 2007 and half of 2008 with elbow problems and subsequent Tommy John surgery, Johnson hit the 200 IP mark for the first time at any professional level last year during his age 25 season. A legitimate #1 starter with a huge fastball, his future success is dependent only on his ability to stay on the field. Florida will face a tough decision on whether to mitigate their risk by cashing Johnson in for a massive bounty of prospects or hold on and hope he can lead them to a playoff berth or two before reaching free agency after the 2011 season. Behind Felix Hernandez, there isn’t another reasonably available pitcher I’d rank higher as a trade target.

There were several potential candidates for the #10 spot but Ubaldo Jimenez gets degree of difficulty points for pitching in Colorado and thus the nod. Somewhat reminiscent of A.J. Burnett, when Jimenez is good, he looks absolutely unbeatable. When he loses his command, he looks like just another big but unharnessed arm. Only 26 going into 2010, Jimenez’s career can go any of a number of ways. In a worst case situation, his command gets no better and starts to cost him strikeouts making him more suited for high leverage bullpen work. If he pitches more or less as he did in 2009, he’ll be a useful but frustrating #2 for the foreseeable future. However, if Jimenez can just shave a few percentage points off his free pass rate while maintaining his strikeout and ground ball tendencies, he’ll be a perennial mid-to-upper half finisher on this list.

Next week, the MVP ballots …

It seemed to make sense to post this closer to the actual award since people probably don’t care about the Cy Young beyond the day it’s announced. So …

1. Zack Greinke, SP, KCA: 16-8, 229.3 IP, 2.16 ERA, 26.4% SO%, 4.4 SO/FP
2. Felix Hernandez, SP, SEA: 19-5, 238.7 IP, 2.49 ERA, 22.2% SO%, 2.7 SO/FP
3. Roy Halladay, SP, TOR: 17-10, 239.0 IP, 2.79 ERA, 21.6% SO%, 5.2 SO/FP
4. Justin Verlander, SP, DET: 19-9, 240.0 IP, 3.45 ERA, 27.4% SO%, 3.9 SO/FP
5. Jon Lester, SP, BOS: 15-8, 203.3 IP, 3.41 ERA, 26.7% SO%, 3.4 SO/FP
6. CC Sabathia, SP, NYA: 19-8, 230.0 IP, 3.37 ERA, 21.0% SO%, 2.6 SO/FP
7. Jered Weaver, SP, ANA: 16-8, 211.0 IP, 3.75 ERA, 19.7% SO%, 2.5 SO/FP
8. Josh Beckett, SP, BOS: 17-6, 212.3 IP, 3.86 ERA, 22.5% SO%, 3.2 SO/FP
9. John Danks, SP, CHA: 13-11, 200.3 IP, 3.77 ERA, 17.8% SO%, 1.9 SO/FP
10. Mariano Rivera, RP, NYA: 44 SV, 66.3 IP, 1.76 ERA, 28.0% SO%, 5.5 SO/FP

Zack Greinke posted the best 200 inning ERA of any AL pitcher since Pedro Martinez was in his prime (1.72 in 2000). While there is always an element of luck with a statistical outlier season like Greinke’s, it’s worth noting that he pitched in a near neutral home park in front of the league’s least efficient defense (Royals fielders converted just 67.5% of balls in play into outs versus an AL average of 70.0%). While much has been made of his relatively easy schedule, it has been overblown. Of the nine starters above, Greinke’s opponents’ OBP and SLG ranked 7th with both Sabathia and Danks facing hitters ranked lower in those categories. (I have yet to hear one baseball analyst mention Sabathia’s unchallenging 2009.) Any focus on strength of schedule beyond notation is simply someone’s way of justifying their vote for a less deserving pitcher.

(As an aside, why does Greinke’s triumph over depression and social anxiety get only a fraction of the praise and attention received by Josh Hamilton during his comeback from drug addiction? Not that Hamilton isn’t a compelling story, but his problems were atleast partially self-inflicted whereas Greinke’s are not. Is it the stigma of mental health issues? The fact that Greinke doesn’t seem as willing to accept his role as the hero of the story? Something else entirely? One would think a comeback of this magnitude, culminating with a Cy Young Award, would be a far bigger story than Hamilton coming back to not win a homerun hitting contest.)

If there is a drawback to Greinke’s breakout season, it’s that he overshadowed an almost equally brilliant performance by Felix Hernandez. Excepting Greinke, Hernandez’s 2.49 ERA was the best for an American League starter since the 2003 season. While Hernandez did get an assist from a spectacular Mariner defense and a friendly home park, his combination of strikeouts and induced ground-balls would have led to success regardless of environment. In nearly any other season, Hernandez brings home some hardware for his efforts but he’ll have to settle for 2nd place in 2009.

Roy Halladay again put up huge numbers in the toughest division of the toughest league. He has now pitched a minimum of 220 innings with an ERA+ of atleast 120 for the last four seasons in Toronto. The fact that he hasn’t won a Cy Young since 2003 (and hasn’t deserved one) is one of the better cases for downplaying single winner awards when discussing a player’s legacy. Looking forward, two of Halladay’s top retired comps at Baseball Reference are Mike Mussina and Jimmy Key and they seem to serve as guidelines to his best case and worst case scenarios. If Halladay holds up physically and maintains his command as his stuff diminishes, his career could perfectly parallel Mussina’s as a pitcher who retained his value into his late 30s. If Halladay’s shoulder issues of the past recur or if minor injuries like this year’s strained groin become more frequent, he could see the remainder of his career mirror Key’s frustrating mix of declining effectiveness and DL stints. How much a team is willing to bet on the former will be the subject of much debate, starting at the winter meetings and not ending until Halladay signs a $100MM+ contract.

After putting a disappointing 2008 behind him, Justin Verlander fulfilled even the loftiest of expectations held for him in 2009. His combination of high strikeout totals with a high flyball rate is actually reminiscent of a right-handed Johan Santana but without Santana’s HR rates. This is likely a combination of both Comerica’s tendency to depress HR totals and Verlander’s tremendous raw stuff, which allows him to make mistakes up in the zone that aren’t punished. Unless his 240 innings have an effect on him in 2010, more of the same should be expected out of Verlander going forward.

The last of the AL’s four dominant under 27 starters is Jon Lester and it’s somewhat shocking that a pitcher who has survived cancer and pitches for Boston is actually underrated. While I doubt Lester would get many (or possibly any) votes in a poll of which pitcher to start a team with, he wouldn’t be a bad choice. He was 2nd behind only Verlander in strikeout percentage among AL starters, safely better than league average in both ground ball and free pass rates and throws left-handed. Heading into his age 26 season with low mileage, he’s as good of a bet as any to succeed for the next 5-10 years.

Thankfully, CC Sabathia didn’t pick up his 20th win in his final start of the season. If there’s one thing voters traditionally lean on to make terrible decisions, it’s nice, round numbers. Not to say that Sabathia was a disappointment in New York; after his typically slow April, Sabathia settled in with a 3.17 ERA and a better than 3.0 SO/FP from May on out. While his workload is cause for some concern (779 regular and postseason innings over the last three seasons), Sabathia seems intent on proving himself a durability outlier.

Jered Weaver didn’t get much attention this season but he was the real ace of the Angels rotation, posting a better ERA than John Lackey in 35 more innings. His peripherals suggest this season (and not 2008 when he had a 4.33 ERA) will be the outlier but even with some regression, Weaver would be a solid #2 on most staffs.

Josh Beckett didn’t perform as well as his 17-6 record or as poorly as his 4.20 runs per game would indicate. Even in an inconsistent, decent-relative-to-self season, he provides plenty of value. Beckett, not Halladay or Cliff Lee, might be the most valuable free agent after the 2010 season. While his overall performance falls a bit short of Halladay’s long run and Lee’s last two seasons, Beckett is three years younger than Halladay and has a better track record of success than Lee. Heading into 2011, Beckett very well may be the best bet for fulfilling the expectations that come with a long term deal.

John Danks is a weird case. His decent stuff and league average strikeout, free pass and ground ball rates would indicate a guy whose value is lies more in innings volume than run prevention but for two straight years he’s had an ERA under 3.80. Danks sits near the top of the list of guys whose projected value could increase if Hit f/x shows that certain pitchers can consistently induce poor contact from hitters. For now, let’s call him a poor man’s Cliff Lee (and give Don Cooper his due as a reclamation rival to Dave Duncan).

I wouldn’t really rank Mariano Rivera as the 10th most valuable pitcher in the AL last year since 200 good innings are more valuable than 75 great innings (and since Andrew Bailey had a better season anyway), but I’m putting him here as a nod to lifetime achievement. Rivera has shown a level of consistent dominance surpassing any reliever before him and, given the benefit of making this list after watching the playoffs, I just feel better finishing with him than Edwin Jackson. The arguments that Jackson was lucky in the first half and that he won’t pitch to that level again are legitimate and probably correct, but it doesn’t take away from his overall contributions in 2009. Without Jackson’s 214 innings of sub-4.00 ERA work, Detroit is probably eliminated by the end of September, not playing in a one game playoff.

Coming Thursday, the NL Cy Young award …

I’m back on the front. Yea! Time for the 2nd Annual MLB DelAwards where I take use a heavily statistical slant to fill out my hypothetical award ballots. To warm up, I’m going to clear out the categories I don’t really care about then get into the more meaningful awards over the next week or two.

AL Manager of the Year

Ron Gardenhire, MIN, 87-76, 1st in the AL Central: I’m not sure what the proper methodology is for picking a winner when there isn’t a team that overachieved their way to a mid-90 win season. You could argue a case for Joe Girardi since he led the undisputed best regular season team (NYA, 103-59) but, under the “managers have the ability to do far more harm than good*” theory, he just had to properly utilize the bullpen and basically put the team on auto-pilot into the playoffs. Mike Scioscia (ANA, 97-65) was the other manager I considered but the Angels play in baseball’s only four team division and their roster is quite a bit better than the Twins. He had a much easier path to 1st place. Gardenhire gets bonus points for having to work with a Bill Smith built team dealt some key injuries that left them with only 1.5 decent starting pitchers and 4 holes in the lineup (2B, 3B, SS, LF). That they turned around what was a 5.5 game deficit on September 14th (more a case of them surging than a more talented Detroit falling apart) without their 3rd best hitter available makes for a nice narrative, too. And who didn’t love the one game, extra innings playoff game?

* See: ALCS, 2009

NL Manager of the Year

Jim Tracy, COL, 74-42 (90-72 overall), 2nd in the NL West: This one seems like a no-brainer. Tracy inherited an 18-28 team from Clint Hurdle in late May and rode a non-descript staff beyond Ubaldo Jimenez to a .638 win percentage over the last four months. Credit Tracy with making the tough decision to play better though unproven youngsters (Stewart, Fowler, Gonzalez) over veterans (Atkins, Spillborghs) and getting the most out of a lineup playing without it’s best hitter from the prior year. The only other candidate here is Tony LaRussa (SLN, 91-71) but you’d probably have to cut that trophy into thirds and give pieces to Dave Duncan and Albert Pujols as well. Maybe 4ths so LaRussa and his massive ego can each have their own piece. Jim Tracy it is, probably in a landslide. Easiest call of the day.

(Side note: Colorado’s top five starters (by GS) started all but 7 of the team’s games. Atlanta was 2nd with 16 games started outside their top five. The league average was 35. That’s a pretty amazing run of in-season health (before de la Rosa’s rotation killing injury heading into the playoffs). And, considering presumed #1 starter Jeff Francis missed the entire year and that Jason Marquis was the Rockies’ 5th best option, it’s more of a dismissible “wow” number than an indication of luck.)

AL Rookie of the Year

1. Gordon Beckham, 3B, CHA: 430 PA, .270/.347/.460, 14 HRs, 7 SB
2. Brett Anderson, SP, OAK: 175.3 IP, 4.06 ERA, 20.4 SO%, 3.2 SO/FP, 52.1 GB%
3. Elvis Andrus, SS, TEX: 541 PA, .267/.329/.373, 6 HR, 33 SB
4. Andrew Bailey, RP, OAK: 83.3 IP, 1.84 ERA, 28.1 SO%, 3.6 SO/FP, 42.3 GB%
5. Rick Porcello, SP, DET: 170.7 IP, 3.95 ERA, 12.4 SO%, 1.6 SO/FP, 55.4 GB%

I guess I should start by noting I’m somewhere between Keith Law (factoring in future projected impact) and most of the awards voters (numbers determine the winner, although we aren’t looking at the same numbers). I think if voters factor in expectations too much, the RoY will simply end up going to the most highly touted prospect to get a lot of playing time in the majors that year. On the other hand, there is something to be said for a rookie getting a full season’s worth of playing time, especially at a high spectrum position, even if his stats are inferior to a 2nd half callup who has three good months.

It was a pretty soft year in the American League as far as impact rookies go. The presumptive RoY favorites and the three rookies who should, along with the players listed above minus Bailey and probably Niemann, headline an eventually well regarded AL Class of 2009, all struggled. David Price battled bad command leading to a decent but unspectacular season and Matt Wieters and Travis Snider both looked lost at times, striking out far too often while failing to put up the numbers projected for them. Snider did flash a bit more of his power potential than Wieters did but didn’t benefit from the same hit luck, giving him a far less impressive slash-line at year’s end. Given that Snider will be only 22 next season and Wieters was playing his 2nd year of professional ball, the expectations for the two don’t have to be downgraded.

In the end, I favored Beckham’s ability to put up a solid offensive season while moving from SS to 3B at the major league level (and it’s tough to overstate how impressive that is. While he should play up the middle going forward to maximize his value, his versatility could come in handy down the line if Chicago deals with injuries or a positional glut/scarcity.

Anderson was a close second and the only other guy I considered for the top slot. While his ERA was slightly higher than Porcello and posted in an easier home park, his peripherals indicate he would have likely put up the best year overall assuming neutral defense/park. With the innings and ERAs as close as they were, his ability to strikeout hitters at an above league average rate and keep more than half of the balls in play on the ground gives him the nod over the other two.

Andrus was the toughest to rank. His offensive performance wasn’t bad (he was basically Alexei Ramirez with more triples and less homeruns) but what earns him 3rd place was the stellar defense he put up at SS. He ranked 4th in the majors in SS UZR (3rd among full-time starters) and, if he only makes minor strides at the plate, he could still have a very valuable, Omar Vizquel-esque career.

Bailey is sort of the anti-Law theory pick here. While he had a great season across the board, nothing in his minor league stats indicated this sort of season was coming and he nearly halved his free pass rate from AAA to the majors. He should be a useful, high strikeout reliever going forward but the level of dominance he displayed in 2009 will likely be his high water mark. He could easily win the actual award if voters go strictly with the most dominant performance, but he’s a reliever and relievers always have the easiest path to seasons that are statistically better than the positional average. Much like I’m not sure I could justify voting for a reliever for Cy Young, I’m not sure I could vote for a reliever over a full-time player for RoY.

Porcello and Jeff Niemann (SP,TBA) put up very similar seasons in terms of results, though no one expects that to continue as their careers progress and I gave Porcello the nod based on future projection. Niemann’s season is much more indicative of the type of pitcher he is; at some point in the future, Tampa Bay will have to determine if he’ll settle into the back-end of their rotation or become a high-leverage reliever. (Usually this is an easy call and you take the starter, but with Shields and Garza locked into spots, Price expected to get every chance to succeed and Wade Davis coming soon, maximum value may be with Niemann in the pen, possibly even closing.) Porcello, on the other hand, is a future ace, at worst #2 starter, and a solid example of why you can’t project a player based on statistics alone. On paper, he’s a Chien-Ming Wang clone; low strikeouts despite solid velocity, high groundball rate, exceptionally dependent on his defense. Watching him pitch, however, you easily envision what he should one day become. Much like Justin Verlander, there almost seems to be a conscious effort to harness his stuff and teach him to work efficiently rather than dominantly right out of the gates. When unleashed, as he was against Minnesota in Detroit’s eventual Game 163 loss (8 SOs in 5 2/3 IP), he showed the ability to overpower hitters. Still not 22 years old, he has stardom ahead.

NL Rookie of the Year

1. Andrew McCutchen, CF, PIT: 493 PA, .286/.365/.471, 12 HR, 22 SB
2. Tommy Hanson, SP, ATL: 127.7 IP, 2.89 ERA, 22.2 SO%, 2.3 SO/FP, 40.8 GB%
3. J.A. Happ, SP, PHI: 166.0 IP, 2.93 ERA, 17.4 SO%, 2.0 SO/FP, 40.1 GB%
4. Randy Wells, SP, CHN: 165.3 IP, 3.05 ERA, 15.0 SO%, 2.0 SO/FP, 49.4 GB%
5. Colby Rasmus, CF, SLN: 520 PA, .251/.307/.407, 16 HR, 3 SB

It took me all of about three seconds to decide that Andrew McCutchen should have the top spot here. Called up after the trade of Nate McLouth to Atlanta, McCutchen finally gave Pittsburgh a franchise-type player for the Pirate fan base to get excited about. I didn’t do a total review to fully C my A on this next comment, but I think it’s safe to label McCutchen the best homegrown Pirate prospect since Barry Bonds. Granted, he doesn’t have Bonds’ ceiling, no one does, but best team prospect in 20+ years is still high praise. If he puts up his 2009 line consistently for a decade, he’s an asset. If he develops into a 25 HR guy, he’s a stud.
(Jason Kendall merit’s a mention here, if only because it’s easy to forget just how awesome Kendall was when he was younger. Contrary to popular belief, the ankle injury isn’t really what derailed his career, he was right back on track the next season. His power just never developed and actually disappeared around age 28 rendering Kendall a batting average dependent, hollow OBP guy rather than the rare catcher who could consistently fill all three slash categories. Speculation as to why this happened is for others to do. I’ll just imply it. (And don’t bother looking it up, Brian Giles came from Cleveland. Even played in the majors for them for a couple seasons.))

The three pitchers were tough to rank although only Happ and Hanson appear to be getting mentioned as contenders for the top spot. That’s a bit tough for me to figure out given how similar Happ and Wells were this season. Both posted double digit wins and strong (though peripheral defying) ERAs in almost the exact same number of innings. Both should regress next year and neither projects as more than an NL #3 or, more likely a #4/#5 starter down the road. Hanson, on the other hand, had greatness expected of him and delivered. Had Atlanta called him up earlier in the season, he probably wins the RoY going away. His 22.2% strikeout percentage was 13th in the NL among pitchers over 120 IPs and he did so while maintaining a better than league average free pass rate. Since the window for being a rookie pitcher is anywhere from 50 to 200 innings, there’s a little more leeway given to a pitcher having a better, more sustainable performance even if it comes in fewer starts. For that reason, I’m ranking Hanson 2nd, Happ 3rd (bonus points for ballpark and better projectability) with Wells 4th with a bigger gap between Hanson and Happ than Happ and Wells.

(Happ is actually a pretty interesting case. He got a ton of press when the Phillies were rumored to not be willing to include him in a Roy Halladay trade (the wisdom of declaring a 26 (now 27) year old rookie whose future is at the back of the rotation or the bullpen untouchable is another debate for another day, especially since it did all work out in the end) and there’s a good chance voters give him the award based on his ERA, win percentage and the fact that he pitched on a playoff team. However, I’d think if anything you need to downtick his numbers just a little since he worked out of the pen for part of the season. While it wasn’t a huge percentage of his innings (13%), he did have the matchup advantage more often than Hanson or Wells and their ERAs were close enough that it probably affected the final numbers. Just a thought.)

5th place is definitely up for debate but it’s sort of a subtle nod to the future, both of Rasmus and of defensive statistical analysis. Easy (though strictly offensive) arguments can be made for Chris Coghlan (LF, FLO) or Garrett Jones (RF/1B, PIT) but both have their drawbacks. Coghlan put up a very strong slash-line (including .390 OBP in 565 PAs) but it’s tough to ignore that he did so with an extremely high BABIP, without much power and while playing bad defense at a low spectrum position. Jones floated between two positions in the 2nd half for Pittsburgh and put up an undeniably huge slash-line. Still, he only had 358 PAs on the year and I’m much more comfortable saying the guy had a tremendous first month followed by two good months rather than extrapolate his power numbers and say he was a 40 HR guy had he been a starter on Opening Day. So, again, a little projection and some assumptions involved. Short term, Jones should settle in as the strong side of a Pittsburgh platoon until a better option comes along. Given that we’re talking about Pittsburgh here … maybe get used to him. And maybe I’ll be wrong and he’ll be a steady power source for the next few years.

Honestly, a lot of this comes down to my love for Rasmus and thus my desire to make a strong argument for him. While his hitting line leaves a bit to be desired, the only underlying issue was his lack of walks. His BABIP should only go up from .282 (since his LD% was fine at 19.6%) and he struck out a reasonable 95 times. Where he really made his contribution was on defense, solidifying a shaky St. Louis OF defense and posting the 4th highest UZR among starting CFs in baseball. Much like Andrus in the AL, Rasmus’ season is more impressive than strict offensive numbers indicate. A full time, stellar defensive 23 year old CF on a division winner is worthy of atleast a 5th place vote here.

(As a bit of an aside, a couple years from now there’s a chance that almost half the National League teams will employ everyday CFs whose rookie season was 2009. Rasmus, McCutchen, Dexter Fowler (COL) and Cameron Maybin ( FLO) are near locks, Drew Stubbs (CIN) and Jordan Schafer (ATL) are better than even bets and Fernando Martinez (NYN) debuted (though still qualifies as a rookie for 2010 after just missing the PA cutoff) and should move back to CF when Beltran exits. When is the last time something like that happened?)

Debate the picks inside the Swamp. Next up, AL Cy Young …

Curt Schilling: 3,261 IP, 216-146, 3.46 ERA, 127 ERA+ (133.3 IP, 10-2, 2.23 ERA, 3 WS titles)
Mike Mussina: 3,562.7 IP, 270-153, 3.68 ERA, 123 ERA+ (139.7 IP, 7-9, 3.42 ERA, 0 WS titles)
David Cone: 2,898.7 IP, 194-126, 3.46 ERA, 120 ERA+ (111.1 IP, 12-3, 3.80 ERA, 5 WS titles)
Kevin Brown: 3,256.3 IP, 211-144, 3.28 ERA, 127 ERA+ (81.2 IP, 6-2, 4.19 ERA, 1 WS titles)
Andy Pettitte: 2,731.7 IP, 215-127, 3.89 ERA, 117 ERA+ (218.1, 18-7, 3.96 ERA, 4 WS titles)

I really just want some clarity on how this argument works. We’re willing to ignore Mussina’s 50+ win advantage on Schilling because Mussina never won a World Series, right? But what about Cone? He has 5 rings to Schilling’s 3 and a better postseason record. Does that not make up 22 wins? Or what about Kevin Brown? It’s almost impossible to find two pitchers more similar over long careers than Brown and Schilling and yet one will likely get in while the other isn’t given more than passing consideration (and Brown doesn’t even have the Mussina stigma of never winning a ring). Pettitte never seemed to have his name brought up even before a member of the Red Sox board of directors discovered his PED past, but why? More titles, more postseason wins, more regular season wins by this May and the narrative of being the guy who won the must-win games during the Yankee dynasty run … I don’t get it. Does it really all come down to the red sock game and the fact that he’s the only one of the five pitchers above who was brilliant at writing his career narrative as he went along? Really, it’s not even that I’m positive I don’t view Schilling as a Hall of Famer, it’s just that I hate how much different his debate will be than that of similarly credentialed peers.

The decision by Alex Rodriguez and the Yankees to pursue surgery now rather than hope he can play through his hip injury is absolutely the right call. While the best case scenario would have been 150+ games of Rodriguez–level numbers, there was too great a chance he would have either lost substantial power or, worse, played poorly for a month or two and then have to be shut down. By attempting to address the problem now, the Yankees gain the benefit of having 3 weeks to find his temporary replacement. Granted, it would have been even better if he had gotten the surgery in December, but that’s no longer an option so I won’t bother dwelling on it here. (Rest assured, I’m not thrilled it’s just coming up now, but so it goes…)

I’ve read well over a dozen possible options to serve as the Yankees April/May 3B but only a few really make sense to me. Here’s the list, from dumbest to worst to best:

The ones I really don’t like:

The Ridiculous In-House Options: Mark Teixeira or Robinson Cano or Xavier Nady to 3B. Works well enough in PS3 I’m sure but this is real baseball. Teixeira doesn’t need the extra pressure of going back to a position he last played (poorly) at age 23 and Cano, as part of the Yankees long-term plans at 2B, shouldn’t be jerked around the IF to accommodate a veteran 2B stop-gap. Nady would be great if he could handle the position but I’m thinking the fact that he’s only played 3 games there since coming to the majors says all we need to know about that suggestion.

The Bad In-House Options: Angel Berroa would likely give 2008 Jose Molina a run for his money as far as negative VORP goes. Cody Ransom looked good in limited time last season and might be an ok short-term option as the weak-side of a platoon but would likely be overmatched receiving 25 PAs per week. Eric Duncan … no.

The Illogical Outside Options: Ray Durham isn’t a good 2B. He certainly wouldn’t be a good 3B and isn’t worth moving Cano for. Mark Grudzielanek would be more experienced than Ransom but not necessary much better at the plate and hasn’t played 3B since before I graduated high school. I’m 30.

The Overly Expensive Outside Options: Dan Uggla would cost far too much in a trade, have to switch positions and would then necessitate another trade once Rodriguez returned. Hank Blalock may not be able to handle 3B anymore and, even if he could, is an even-odds bet to join Rodriguez on the DL. Garrett Atkins doesn’t excite me at Coors so I really don’t want to see him switch to a park that deflates right-handed hitters’ numbers. Melvin Mora had a nice season last year but he’s a likely regression candidate and I very overpriced at $10MM remaining on his deal.

The ones I don’t love but could understand:

The Cheaper Trade Options: Chad Tracy probably wouldn’t cost much more than salary relief and a flyer prospect to Arizona and in a L/R platoon with Ransom might keep the position around league average. Mark Teahen would probably cost a bit more for a bit more production. Neither is a great defender at 3B and probably qualify as treading water at its best. Brandon Inge has a great glove at 3B but an awful OBP and $13MM left on his contract over the next two seasons. Detroit and New York have a recent trade history and Inge is probably the best option among this group since he’s versatile enough to take over for Jorge Posada behind the plate at times without being quite as awful with the bat as Molina.

The two that probably make the most sense:

The Full Season Solution: If the Yankees aren’t confident that Rodriguez will be back in 2009 at all (or fear he’ll be back in 9 weeks only to potentially need the full surgery shortly thereafter), the most compatible lineup fit is Adrian Beltre. He’d be expensive both in terms of money and prospects, no doubt, but he’s in the last year of his deal and was earlier rumored to be available at the right price. He’d be a step down in OBP and couldn’t hold down Rodriguez’s spot in the middle of the lineup but he would provide some power and a great glove at 3B. The main stumbling block here would probably be the level of prospects Seattle would ask for in return for their downgrade from Beltre to Ronny Cedeno. Still, it’s plausible.

The Best Option: Chone Figgins doesn’t appeal to my sabermetric side all that much but I’ve loved him as a player for a long time. He’s the kind of guy who has tremendous value in his versatility and, utilized properly, can be a great catalyst type. He’s in the last year of his deal with Anaheim and they may decide to get value out of him now in order to finally see what they have in Brandon Wood. While the Angels likely wouldn’t be in a rush to help out the Yankees, perhaps the right combination of a bullpen arm for now and pitching prospect for later could entice them. The most appealing part about Figgins from a Yankee standpoint is that he would maintain high value to the team even after Rodriguez returns. He’d give them a utility roamer, a fill-in at multiple positions in the event of another injury and a great late innings option on his days off. The drop in team power would certainly be felt for the 2 months without Rodriguez but Figgins makes few enough outs and does enough other things well to be a solid option at 3B. If Anaheim’s demands aren’t outrageous, Figgins is my choice.

I’m 90% convinced that Bengal’s post simply a ploy to get me to write something here. If so, well done.

Garret Anderson is decidedly not a Hall of Famer. He’s not even a “Hall of Very Good”-er for those who like that term. Garret Anderson is just a guy who played for a relatively long time and rarely got hurt and thus racked up counting stats. 2,368 hits looks nice but he’s only that high because, for most of his 15 major league seasons, he’s refused to draw a walk. 296 unintentional walks in 15 seasons. Grady Sizemore already has more than that. Seriously. 311 unintentional walks for Grady Sizemore in 4.25 seasons, 296 for Garret Anderson who made his debut in 1994 and hasn’t had less than 450 PAs since 1995. Same goes for Nick Swisher and David Wright (314 UIBB each).

So, yes, Garret Anderson has lots of hits but with a .327 career OBP from LF, he should be one and out when he eventually reaches the ballot.

(Baseball-Reference’s comps are nice enough, but they’re severely in need of reweighting. Bernie Williams had over 1,000 walks in his career, ranked in the top 100, and finished (hopefully) with a .381 OBP as a CF. Nothing about his career is comparable to Garret Anderson aside from era and PAs through age 36.)

Ladies and gentlemen, once again, Brontoburglar …

I figure I should stick to what I know, so here’s the first in what will hopefully be a weekly feature/power rankings of the Big XII conference over the course of the conference schedule. Just a week into conference play, the South has five of the top six spots, giving this a distinctly football-like feel. Well, except for the Baylor being good part.

1. Oklahoma—Got off to a bit of a rocky start against Kansas State but came back to beat the Wildcats. Handled Texas at home, but that’s a home and home rivalry, so it’s not much of a surprise. I have a had time thinking that their starting five is Blake Griffin and two above average players and two average players, but Blake Griffin is Blake Griffin. Look what K-State got by on last year. K-State’s philosophy in the first half was to let Griffin get his points, but prevent the four role players from getting theirs. It worked for a while, so it will be interesting to see if someone can pull it off for 40 minutes. This Week: @ A&M, Neb.

2. Texas—Had a rough start to the week, only beating Iowa State at home by eight, and then losing in Norman. Much like Oklahoma, this team relies on one guy, AJ Abrams. Damion James is a beast when he wants to be and while Conor Atchley is a nice player, they’re going to get owned in the paint all season just like what happened Monday night. This Week: @ Tech

3. Oklahoma State—Only here by default because I don’t feel comfortable putting anyone else here right now. Beat a better than expected Texas A&M team at home Saturday but get a test against Baylor in Waco today and then get a bipolar Missouri team at home on Wednesday. 1-1 is the likely outcome for the week, but 0-2 isn’t out of the possibility either while 2-0 paints the Pokes as legitimate contenders for a first round bye in the Big 12 tournament. Side note: It’s kind of weird that the three best teams right now in basketball were three of the best four teams in football. This week: @ Baylor, MU.

4. Kansas—Last year’s game in Manhattan was an aberration because of Michael Beasley, so Kansas’ domination of Kansas State wasn’t much of a surprise on Tuesday night. The Jayhawks did get a little complacent after their big 18-0 lead, but pulled away in the second half. This team is too young to be terribly consistent right now, but they do have the potential to be a top five seed in the NCAA tournament if Sherron Collins doesn’t go after any more females in elevators. This week: @ CU, A&M

5. Texas A&M—Nice win against Baylor on Wednesday evening puts the Aggies back to .500 but they won’t be there for long. The next two games are brutal as Oklahoma comes to College Station and the Aggies head to Lawrence for Big Monday. 1-1 isn’t out of the question, and would certainly keep A&M on the radar, but 0-2 is the most likely scenario. This week: OU, @ KU

6. Baylor—They’re going to have some success in the regular season, but there’s a reason that they lost in the first round of the Big XII Tournament and lost to Texas A&M Wednesday. They have great perimeter players, and you can’t fault Scott Drew for building his four guard lineup around his strength, but the Bears’ lack of rebounding exposes them at inopportune times, and if they get into the NCAA Tournament like expected, but draw a team with a good frontcourt, they are toast. The good news is that they match up well with their two opponents this week, so 2-0 is a safe bet. This week: OSU, @ KSU

7. Missouri—More on Colorado at the bottom, but the question stands: Who is the real Missouri? The team that looked sluggish and awful at Nebraska, or the team that absolutely ran roughshod over Colorado without Leo Lyons, arguably the Tigers’ best player? I tend to think that the answer lies somewhere in the middle, but closer to the Colorado result. Ken Pomeroy loves the Tigers, and it wouldn’t surprise me if they finished conference play 13-3 or 6-10. This week: ISU, @OSU

8. Kansas State—They’re probably pretty even with Missouri but I never said that I was unbiased, and after all, KSU is 0-2, even though those two losses were to two of the best teams in the conference. I give the Cats a lot of credit for storming back against Kansas. Closing the deficit to 45-42 is no small feat after spotting the defending national champs 18 points to open the game. Denis Clemente may be the fastest player in the conference, and if he can learn to harness that speed at the right times, K-State could pull an upset or three over the course of the season. This Week: @ Neb, Baylor

9. Iowa State—All in all it was a successful week for the Cyclones. Kept it to within 10 in Austin and took care of Nebraska at home on Wednesday. If they can keep it close today in Columbia, then Iowa State could get as high as seventh in the conference. But if Missouri runs them out of the gym, a bottom three finish is probable. But no matter the outcome at the Paige, Iowa State can count on a victory when the Tigers visit Ames later in the year. This Week: @ MU

10. Nebraska—The Cornhuskers should savor the victory over the Tigers, because that may be their statement victory of the season. There’s just nothing about this team to get excited about because Ade Dagenduro isn’t going to go for 20 points a night every night. Plain and simple, Nebraska controlled the tempo against a Tigers’ team that is on the complete other end of the temp spectrum and got frazzled when they couldn’t get up and down. Don’t bank on Nebraska stealing any more big wins this season. This Week: KSU, @ OU

11. Texas Tech—Who is pumped for the giant Texas Tech-Colorado game this week? Wait, keep your hands up,… what, no one? Seriously? Good. I’m glad that you all have a conscience and couldn’t subject yourself to the forthcoming abomination. You have to wonder how long Pat Knight’s grace period is going to be. Eighth place in the conference is this team’s ceiling, and even that may be too high. This Week: UT, CU

12. Colorado—I know that it’s way too early in the season to be even having this debate, but after seeing the Buffs in person on Wednesday, it has to be mentioned. This team may be as bad as Melvin Watkins’ Texas A&M team that went 0-16 in conference play. At the very least, if the teams got a chance to play each other it would be close. Colorado has no one resembling a playmaker on the team, and their leading scorer against Missouri was their 10th man, Ryan Kelley, who scored 19 points in 19 minutes. Methinks he needs to play more. This Week: KU, @ Tech

Front page guest week continues with Swamp all-timer Jerloma weighing in on the NFL playoffs.

As of Sunday night, the Pittsburgh Steelers will have played in seven of the last fifteen AFC Championships and six of them at home. That’s a fairly absurd number considering that statistically, you only have a 12.5% chance of making it to the AFCC and a 6.25% chance of being the home team. Also, this was all in the salary cap era where it’s hard to maintain long term success. So, what’s the problem? Surely, we can’t complain about a team manufacturing that level of success…or can we? Don’t get me wrong, as fans we’re ecstatic to be here but in many ways, playing host to the AFC Championship Game has become the bane of our existence.

We remember dominating a Chargers team and almost doubling them up in every offensive category only to be beaten by two big plays from Pupunu and Martin. We remember jumping all over a Broncos team and then having to watch our quarterback self-destruct culminating with Romanowski taunting him right to his face after another end zone pick and nobody on the team doing a thing about it, presumably because they agreed with him. We remember the same QB self-destructing against a Patriots team that had no business being in Pittsburgh that day and we certainly remember that beat down of a 15-1 team by Brady and Co. that was supposed to launch a new era of dynastic proportions but the reality of a rookie QB pulling it off that soon was a bit too much to ask. Even that one home AFCC win was a little bittersweet. It was great at the time but the team played poorly and could have lost on a late Hail Mary that barely hit the ground. It’s just not a game that we can look back on too fondly. The Steelers have since won a Super Bowl and despite that perfect game that they played in Denver a few years ago, there isn’t a Steeler fan out there who can tell you that those 5 home championship games will not be on their minds this week because as sick as it makes us to think about those losses, they would all pale in comparison to watching the Baltimore Ravens celebrate an AFC title where the Allegheny meets the Monongahela.

You’ll hear a lot about how much these teams don’t like each other this week but a lot of that is just fodder for the media. When the game is over, they’ll be out on that field congratulating each other, giving out hugs, and wishing the other team the best of luck. It’s the fans that will be throwing shit at the TV and stabbing their Ray Lewis voodoo dolls.

There’s an interesting dynamic that comes along with hating the Ravens. As Steeler fans, we see them as punk-ass thugs who do a little too much talking, dancing, self-promoting, whining, and murdering for our tastes. Here’s where the dichotomy lies though…first and foremost, we’re football fans, and we love the way that team plays football. You can throw out all of the tired clichés about “Steeler Football” but ultimately there’s one thing that is consistent among these two teams and that’s well-executed defensive play and a desire to just physically beat down their opponents. I’m generalizing here but I think there are a lot of football fans who can’t see the inherent beauty in a 10-6 slugfest of a football game. To Steelers and Ravens fans…that’s not ugly…that’s football. Yes, we despise each other, but we’re more alike than most fans would ever care to admit because ultimately…isn’t this about the game?

So what does this all mean? Well it means one of these teams is going to represent the AFC in the Super Bowl, probably as favorites to win it but for us Steeler fans, there’s a little more than a Super Bowl berth on the line. On some level, this has as much to do with what we’re trying to avoid than what we’re trying to gain because after emotionally absorbing all of those underachieving home AFCC losses, this team has been put in a position to make us forget about every last damn one of them. If that doesn’t happen, it will manifest itself in a manner in which we don’t even want to think about…yet we can’t help thinking about it. “New coach, new team, new players…can’t happen again, right?”

It’s not my intention to speak for an entire fan base here so I’ll admit that I hate every team that isn’t wearing the black and gold. Not actively…but if we’re playing you in big game on any given week, I’ll pretty much be able to talk myself into hating you every time. This means a little too much to me. I’m not sure when that happened but it is what it is. With the Ravens though, it’s not only about dealing with the devastation that would come with them getting to the Super Bowl by going right through Pittsburgh. If they pull of this upset…they will have done it our way.

I’m just not prepared to deal with that right now.