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The latest train wreck exported from the NFL’s junk yard is none other than Adam “Pacman” Jones. As you know, Pacman had some trouble with the NFL (and society at large) because of, well, everything. No NFL team contacted him. No UFL team contacted him. As far as we know, nobody from Dancing With The Stars contacted him. In short, to continue playing football, and to earn a pay check, he had little choice but to pack up and head north. The struggling 3-5 Winnipeg Blue Bombers decided to take a chance on him as they try to turn their season around over the second half of the CFL season. Let’s put aside Canada’s reputation as an inevitably forgiving liberal haven for a moment and consider the NFL versus the CFL as being societies unto themselves. The CFL is, frankly, a very conservative traditionalist establishment that has contested the Grey Cup for a century. Outspoken, boorish, bombastic, self-promoting behavior is not only frowned upon but will most often get you a ticket out of town. Consider the situation that Arland Bruce recently found himself in as a result of on-field antics and overly-vocal criticism of everyone under the Sun. In this league, you cannot be a distraction and keep your job. All this on top of a very strict anti-drug policy. Unless Jones has undergone an extraordinary personal transformation, this is a terrible move by Winnipeg. The other side of the coin is that this may turn out to be the best thing that ever happened to Jones; gaining experience in a mellower social climate and being able to play the game where there will be a relative minimum of media reminding him of past indiscretions. Hopefully, he’ll take advantage of this. Second (or third or fourth) chances are not easy to come by and this is his.

Jones is not the first to use the CFL in an attempt to rehabilitate himself. One of the more high-profile specimens recently was Ricky Williams who signed for a season with the Toronto Argonauts. Pacman can look at Williams as an example of using the CFL to forge a new life for himself and using the Canuck league as a stepping stone to get back to the big show. Much like Williams, the issue with Jones was never one concerning his skills as a football player. Jones is blessed with superb natural speed, makes intelligent adjustments on routes and has an excellent set of hands. No, the problem is that every team in the NFL is fed up with his even more natural habit of finding trouble for himself which has resulted in an NFL-wide consensus of Jones not being “worth the hassle”, as it were.

Frankly, I don’t expect Jones really knows what he is getting himself into. Aside from the CFL game being so very different from that which is played in the NFL, the society and culture into which he is entering is unlike anything he knows. There is a dearth of bling, a distinct absence of firearms, strangers smile and say hello and both apologize profusely should they accidentally bump into each other on a sidewalk. During the winter months, Winnipeg is the coldest city in the galaxy. Check out Portage and Main when winter lays claim to the prairies and where “severe wind chill” is a distant luxury compared to the remarkable cold that settles in for months. Worse, Canadian dollar bills don’t exist. Neither do two dollar bills. No, it’s all coinage; loonies and toonies. Most Canadians carry around about a pound of the stuff in their pockets in lieu of paper money. So, regrettably, you can’t really “make it rain” with all those metal bits. Although, when you think about it, I suppose you could “make it hail”.

I have quite a bit of respect for Orlando Hudson. He is a solid player and is willing to speak out on that which he holds true. Swamp All-Star, our own Keg, provides us with this story from the Los Angeles Times.

A brief excerpt:

On the night every player in baseball wore No. 42 to celebrate the 62nd anniversary of Jackie Robinson breaking the color barrier in the major leagues, Orlando Hudson said that Robinson”would probably turn over in his grave” seeing how few African Americans are in the game.

Hudson, who is African American, said he has had black kids tell him, “Orlando, I can’t play that white man’s game.”

I don’t buy that at all. And one of my big problems with it is Hudson’s sweeping use of “they”. As in “They want us out. They want him out.”

Pretty much a standard conspiracy theory practice. As in “They invented bar codes to control people.”

Uh-huh. Yep. It was THEM! Remarkably, “they” struck again.

The best way to look at this is chronologically. Let’s say you are a young urban African-American born in 1985, which would make you 24 years-old now and at an age ripe for entering Major League Baseball. By the time you were old enough to develop an interest in popular culture (or be affected by it), Hip Hop was rapidly becoming the overwhelming force in music and fashion and it even had a dramatic impact on speech in many ways. Hip Hop artists were quickly becoming superstars. Artists such as Public Enemy’s Chuck D had significant impact how on the politics of society were viewed by his young target audience. And as was eloquently and stylishly stated by legendary Swamper Howard in the Swamp’s All-Time Boxing Draft thread, Muhammad Ali managed perhaps more than any athlete in US history to create a unifying link between culture, politics, sport and art. For our theoretical young African-American man coming of age in the 90s, the sights and sound of his world were best reflected largely by NBA players (like Allen Iverson; corn rows and tats; a very intentional look; a very intentional statement) and NFL players who exhibited the same emerging cultural themes.

Whereas the closest thing Baseball had to offer was Dontrelle wearing his hat slightly askew. Clearly this is not meant to be an all-encompassing generalization of African-American culture. Not in the least; far from it. But I would put to you that this particular phase within the culture does account for a significant drop-off in America’s Pastime among that particular demographic. Coupled with the recent “internationalizing” of the game, other sports have simply become more enticing to many of America’s youth.

If one were to employ a similar analysis to, say, International hockey, you’d see that the times can very often dictate success or failure; and change the face of a sport entirely. A decade and a half after the USSR collapsed, Russian ice hockey was in complete shambles; resources were simply unavailable for Russian youth and the nation temporarily lost its previously solid base of talent. As Russia began to reemerge, so grew the standard of their play. A very similar situation arose in Eastern Canada when, due to a severe economic downturn, parents could not afford to outfit their kids with hockey equipment. And another is happening in Eastern Canada today where the state of soccer is in disarray. Why? Not because any given segment of society is unwanted but rather because the kids just aren’t interested in it as much as they are interested in other sports. As a result, those provinces will never be represented by players on a national level.

To me, you have to look at temporal societal/cultural impact as the cause behind Orlando Hudson’s concerns. Any sport reflects the interests of those who may have been possible athletes at the time when those possible athletes were growing up. Times change. And times will keep on changing. And that which composes the lives of today’s youth will be reflected in tomorrow’s athletes and tomorrow’s games.

But as far as “they” being responsible, well, I think O-Dog is looking at the wrong “theys”.

This is a huge weekend for Kentucky Derby preps – first the Derby Watch list, with last week’s rankings and probable next start after the name, then a preview of this week’s races:

1. Old Fashioned (1- Rebel Stakes 3/14)
2. Pioneerof the Nile (2- San Felipe Stakes 3/14)
3. Friesan Fire (3- Louisiana Derby 3/14)
4. Desert Party (4- UAE Derby 3/28)
5. I Want Revenge (15- Wood Memorial 4/4)
6. Hello Broadway (5- Tampa Bay Derby 3/14)
7. Quality Road (6- Florida Derby 3/28)
8. The Pamplemousse (10- Santa Anita Derby 4/4)
9. Patena (7- Louisiana Derby 3/14)
10. Papa Clem (12- Louisiana Derby 3/14)
11. Dunkirk (17- Florida Derby 3/28)
12. Giant Oak (11- Louisiana Derby 3/14)
13. Beethoven (13- Florida Derby 3/28)
14. Theregoesjojo (14- Florida Derby 3/28)
15. Imperial Council (9- Wood Memorial 4/4)
16. Flying Pegasus (16- Louisiana Derby 3/14)
17. Chocolate Candy (NR- Santa Anita Derby 3/28)
18. West Side Bernie (NR- Lanes End Stakes 3/21)
19. Rachel Alexandra (NR- Fairgrounds Oaks 3/14)
20. Stardom Bound (8- Ashland Stakes 4/4 or Santa Anita Derby 3/28)

Knocking on the Door: Capt. Candyman Can, General Quarters, Mr Hot Stuff, Ryehill Dancer, and Take the Points

Preview time – first up the Louisiana Derby:

1. Free Country (Desourmeaux) 12-1
2. Soul Warrior (Bridgmohan) 20-1
3. Patena (Albarado) 7-2
4. Terrain (Leparoux) 10-1
5. Flying Pegasus (Velazquez) 8-1
6. Giant Oak (Graham) 4-1
7. Uno Mas (Hernandez Jr) 12-1
8. Papa Clem (Bejarano) 8-1
9. Friesan Fire (Saez) 5-2
10. Nowhere to Hide (Lanerie) 15-1

With fully a quarter of my Top Twenty list in the field, the rankings should get a real shake up next week. Even though my rankings don’t have the finish in this order, I’m trying to get tomorrow right in these predictions. I think Patena wins it, as Dutrow will have him cranked in the first race out his stable. Friesan Fire will run a good race, but Larry Jones will not have him at the top of his game. Giant Oak will find trouble again, while California shipper Papa Clem claims the place in his first race on dirt.

Win – Patena
Place – Papa Clem
Show – Friesan Fire

Tampa Bay Derby:

1. Perfect Bull (Butler) 30-1
2. Musket Man (Centeno) 8-1
3. Nowhere to Hide (Garcia) 5-1
4. Hello Broadway (Coa) 3-1
5. Warrior’s Reward (Montalvo) 12-1
6. Sumo (Rose) 6-1
7. Join in the Dance (Trujillo) 12-1
8. General Quarters (Lopez) 4-1
9. Bear’s Rocket (Allen Jr) 8-1
10. Justdontcallmejeri (Rios) 12-1
11. Top Seed (Maragh) 20-1

Hello Broadway ships into Tampa from Gulfstream Park and avoids most of the big Florida players here. If he doesn’t win this, Tagg may well take him off the Derby Trail. Ian Wilkes’ second Derby contender Warrior’s Reward seems like the strongest challenger, even with the Tampa-based General Quarters coming off a win in the local prep race (Sam Davis Stakes) last out.

Win: Hello Broadway
Place: Warrior’s Reward
Show: General Quarters

San Felipe Stakes:

1. He’s Really Big (Gryder) 30-1
2. Pioneerof the Nile (Gomez) 2-5
3. Feisty Suances (Flores) 10-1
4. Shafted (Rosario) 8-1
5. Jeranimo (Blanc) 20-1
6. Kelly Leak (Espinoza) 6-1
7. New Bay (Talamo) 8-1

I see no one besting Pioneerof the Nile here. Shafted has the best chance for an upset in my opinion, but he is just as likely to run off the board as to running a big race.

Win: Pioneerof the Nile
Place: Shafted
Show:Kelly Leak

Rebel Stakes:

1. Old Fashioned (Dominguez) 7-5
2. Hamazing Destiny (Thompson) 5-1
3. Poltergeist (Hamilton) 15-1
4. Pointing Home (Garcia) 15-1
5. Wise Kid (Caraballo) 9-2
6. His Greatness (Sterling Jr) 12-1
7. Captain Cherokee (Quinonez) 8-1
8. Silver City (Court) 4-1
9. Win Willy (Berry) 20-1

Old Fashioned was not worked much before his win in the Southwest Stakes last out when he made it 3 straight wins to start his career, but he ran a better than the speed figure would indicate. I see a marked improvement from him, resulting in an easy win. Poltergeist is better than his last out and Silver City seems to be more suited to sprinting, but they are better than most of the field.

Win: Old Fashioned
Place: Poltergeist
Show: Silver City

The 56th annual ACC Men’s Basketball Tournament will be getting underway this Thursday at the Georgia Dome in Atlanta and run all the way through the championship game on Sunday. Based on the finishes of the teams in the league, here is how things are shaped up as to who gets in the tournament.

Locked in: North Carolina, Wake Forest, Duke, Florida State, Clemson.
Likely in: Boston College.
Needs work or else NIT: Maryland, Virginia Tech, Miami.
Definitely NIT unless win the tourney: NC State.

Thursday opening round:
Game 1 – #8 Virginia Tech vs #9 Miami – what is considered to be the bubble-buster game, Virginia Tech took the lone meeting 88-83 in OT. Up until the Duke meeting on February 28, coach Seth Greenberg was making a strong case to put the Hokies in the NCAA Tournament this year when they were 17-10. Since then, they lost to Duke, UNC, and Florida State, all ranked teams, to finish 7-9 in the conference in the three-way tie for seventh, with the Hurricanes being one of the teams. After making the dance last season, Miami was expected to finish in the top four of the league and another return. Miami has turned out to be the most disappointing team in the ACC this season, losing three games in the midpoint of the season in overtime and held UNC very tough at Coral Gables. The winner gets the Tar Heels, who is 1-0 vs VT and 2-0 vs Miami.
Winner: Virginia Tech 70-62.

Game 2 – #5 Clemson vs #12 Georgia Tech – Clemson easily handled the Jackets in both their meetings this season; however, Clemson is playing like the Clemson we’ve seen in recent years. In order to get back to the ACC Championship game, they need to win three games (which could include beating UNC in the semis on Saturday). Clemson is playing for a top four regional seed and three wins could give them one of the top three seeds. Georgia Tech is playing for a Friday meeting with Florida State. Interesting history against Clemson – since the league expanded to 12 teams in 2005, two of the previous three 5 vs 12 games have been won by the 12-seed (Wake Forest beat Miami in 2006 and actually advanced all the way to the semifinals; Miami knocked off Maryland in 2007 and took BC to overtime in the quarters before falling).
Winner: Clemson 88-70.

Game 3 – #7 Maryland vs #10 NC State – The question is which Maryland team will show up – the one where they knocked off UNC in OT, or the one that folded against UVa to close the season. Maryland won by 11 at Raleigh a couple of weeks ago behind an outstanding performance by Greivis Vasquez, but laid an egg against favored Wake and underdog Virginia. NC State hasn’t really been in any contests this year that they’ve lost (only one of their games in the league were by four points or less and that was in OT). However, the Wolfpack over the years going back to the Sendek era have been a strong show in the ACC Tournament (making the finals four times in the last 11 years). The last time they were a 10-seed, they won three games two seasons ago and gave it all they could against the Tar Heels in the finals. Look for Sidney to wear that red jacket and the jacket gets sent to the cleaners for at least a couple of days. Also, look for the match-up between Vasquez and Courtney Fells with the upper hand being the decisive factor. Winner gets Wake Forest on Friday.
Winner: NC State 64-61.

Game 4 – #6 Boston College vs #11 Virginia – The Eagles played Jekyll and Hyde when the league season began – won at #1 UNC, then dropped four straight , including Harvard. BC won the lone meeting at Charlottesville behind 20 points each from Tyrese Rice and Rakim Sanders. With a win here, the Eagles are assured of being in the Field of 65. A loss here, they’ll be watching on Sunday to see if they do get in. Virginia is basically playing for pride and rebuilding for next season.
Winner: Boston College 75-70.

The future potential games:

Quarterfinals: Clemson vs Florida State – The ‘Noles swept the Tigers this season, including coming back from 19 down with 14:00 to play at Littlejohn in the first meeting. The game started the atypical Clemson snowball after such a great start to the season. It’s always tough to beat a team three times in a season, but not this time. FSU will move on to the semis to play Carolina because of their defense.

Quarterfinals: Boston College vs Duke – BC won the earlier meeting at Conte. Duke usually has problems playing in domes. For a team that shoots primarily outside jumpers, this may be an issue for the Devils. Duke looked to be playing for a bye after the BC loss, but went on a tear before losing to UNC on Sunday. Duke will avenge this loss behind the power of Kyle Singler and will advance to Saturday.

Semifinals: Florida State vs North Carolina – Should they meet, FSU will have one thing on their mind – revenge. After Ty Lawson’s running jumper at the buzzer, FSU had been playing great themselves (7-3 in their last 10). Carolina took the #1 seed for the third consecutive season and has won the previous two tournament titles. The only thing Carolina has to play for here is the tourney title. This is also Tyler Hansbrough’s last shot at the National Championship and likely they will start their run in Greensboro next Thursday. So, it’s conceivable if the Tar Heels do not win this game in an effort to give Hansbrough an extra day of rest. I really believe this game is going to be just as good as the prior meeting and Carolina will not give up. It’s just that FSU will be playing much better in this game. FSU will win this one close and move on to their first-ever ACC Tournament Final.

Semifinals: Wake Forest vs Duke – These two Tobacco Road foes played two of the best league games this year, each winning on their home turf. This game will mean more than a trip to Sunday. Right now, Duke is a low 2-seed while Wake is a mid 3. The winner of this game will take the regional 2-seed and more importantly get to play their first and second round games in Greensboro next week, while the loser will likely be a 3-seed and travel (if it’s Wake, it’s likely Miami; if it’s Duke, it’s either Philly or Miami, but odds are with UConn and Villanova likely there unless Nova blows in the Big East, Duke should head to South Beach). This game will be decided by Jeff Teague’s play on the floor.

Finals: Florida State vs Wake Forest – Wake cruised to a 25-point win at the Joel back in January. Both of these teams have played consistent in the second half of the season, but I think Wake is just too much for FSU. This will be a great feel-good moment for the Deacons if they win this for their late coach, Skip Prosser. Having said that, Wake Forest will be winning their first ACC Championship Title since the Tim Duncan era in 1996.

Sorry about missing last week, but it was unavoidable. The upside is we got the first serious Derby Preps out of the way last weekend. Quality Road’s win in the Fountain of Youth and The Pamplemousse’s victory in the Sham Stakes both vault them up the chart, while my #2 Capt. Candyman Can drops off the list with a disappointing fourth at Gulfstream Park. Midshipman falls off the list entirely as he has a soft tissue tear and will be rested through the Triple Crown to prep for a summer comeback.

This weekend’s Preps come from Aqueduct, the Gotham Stakes, and a race that usually impacts the first Friday in May only – the Santa Anita Oaks. Stardom Bound has been installed as the 2-5 favorite in what could be her last race against the fillies for a while; assuming a win it’s on to the Santa Anita Derby and the boys on April 4th. Will O Way seems to present to biggest obstacle to Stardom Bound’s winning tomorrow and I’d be surprised if the favorite loses. But the biggest female rival to last year’s Juvenile champ is Evita Argentina – winner in her last out against the boys in the San Vincente Stakes. It’s too bad that Evita Argentina is a sprinter and is unlikely to meet Stardom Bound this season.

The Gotham Stakes marks the stakes debut of Imperial Council, Shug McGaughey’s best Derby shot since Saarland. This son of Empire Maker is 1 for 1 this year, and 2 for 3 in his career, and coming off a terrific allowance win at Gulfstream Park. He’s been made the morning line favorite even though Haynesfield has won his last 3 races – all stakes, though the first 2 were restricted to New York breds. The horse I like to complete the exacta behind Imperial Council is I Want Revenge; the first and second choices on the morning line so it’s not really going out on a limb. Sometimes you just have to call it as you see it.

Now for the Top Twenty – last ranking and probable next start after name:

1. Old Fashioned (1- Rebel Stakes 3/14)
2. Pioneerof the Nile (3- San Felipe Stakes 3/14)
3. Friesan Fire (4- Louisiana Derby 3/14)
4. Desert Party (6- UAE Derby 3/28)
5. Hello Broadway (5- Tampa Bay Derby 3/14)
6. Quality Road (NR- Florida Derby 3/28)
7. Patena (10- Louisiana Derby 3/14)
8. Stardom Bound (9- Santa Anita Oaks 3/7)
9. Imperial Council (14- Gotham Stakes 3/7)
10. The Pamplemousse (18- Santa Anita Derby 4/4)
11. Giant Oak (8- Louisiana Derby or Rebel Stakes 3/14)
12. Papa Clem (11- Louisiana Derby 3/14)
13. Beethoven (13- Tampa Bay Derby 3/28)
14. Theregoesjojo (17- Florida Derby 3/28)
15. I Want Revenge (16- Gotham Stakes 3/7)
16. Flying Pegasus (12- Lousiana Derby 3/14)
17. Dunkirk (NR- Florida Derby 3/28)
18. West Side Bernie (NR- Florida Derby 3/28)
19. Take the Points (NR- Santa Anita Derby 4/4)
20. Haynesfield (NR- Gotham Stakes 3/7)

Knocking on the door: Capt. Candyman Can, Chocolate Candy, General Quarters, Mr Hot Stuff, Ryehill Dreamer, Silver City, and Vineyard Haven

Ah, spring. The time of year when baseball fans start waxing nostalgic about seasons past and building optimism for the future. Not Pirates fans. We have to look all the way back to 1992 for the last winning season. Come October, the Pirates will have played 17 consecutive losing seasons, and they will singlehandedly hold the North American record for futility. Take that, Phillies!

And they’ll be taking the field with pretty much the same line-up that lost 95 games last year, minus the first-half contributions of Jason Bay and Xavier Nady. Ian Snell and Tom Gorzellany, two starting pitchers who were expected to have breakout years in 2008, regressed terribly. Adam LaRoche may or may not hit before June. His brother Andy, who looked completely overmatched both offensively and defensively last season, is now dealing with a bulging disc in his back. Jack Wilson and Freddy Sanchez are still shoring up the middle infield, such as it is. (I like both of these guys, but in my weaker moments I’ve referred to them as “Out Machines.”) The bullpen is still a question mark. So, there’s certainly no reason for optimism, right?

Wrong. For the first time in as long as I can remember, I’m excited about the direction this team is taking. I am blindly devoted to President Frank Coonelly and GM Neal Huntington until they prove me wrong. Former GM David Littlefield left the minor-league system barren. Through trades and radical new concepts like drafting the best available players, Huntington has stocked the system with a handful of potential high-end players.

The biggest name, of course, is Pedro Alvarez, the second pick in last year’s entry draft. After a protracted song-and-dance in which he refused to sign his contract, while Superagent/douche Scott Boras and Coonelly traded barbs through the media, Alvarez did not exactly endear himself to Pirates fans. And then, several months later, he showed up at minicamp overweight and unwilling to talk to reporters. All of this will (hopefully) be forgiven and forgotten once he starts to hit. He’s already drawing Willie Stargell comparisons in spring training.

Andrew McCutchen, a toolsy centerfielder and first-round pick in 2005, will probably open the season in Indianapolis so that the Pirates can keep his arbitration clock from ticking, but it’s a safe bet that the highlight of the Pirates’ season will be the day in May when McCutchen is called up.

Jose Tabata, an outfielder/head case who came over in the Nady/Marte trade last year, is another intriguing, young prospect. Players and coaches are talking about the way the ball sounds when it hits his bat. That’s the kind of stuff that brings a tear to Dusty Baker’s eye.

There are a handful of guys in the low minors who are worth noting: Bryan Morris, a 21-year-old pitcher acquired from the Dodgers in the Jason Bay trade, might be the top pitching prospect in the Pirates’ system. OF Robbie Grossman and P Quentin Miller were taken later in last year’s draft and paid well above slot to sign here.

So, what about the big club? Nobody seems to be expecting much this season, so at least we won’t be disappointed. If a handful of players can continue to improve, I’ll consider the season a success. Over the winter, Huntington locked up Ryan Doumit, Nate McLouth, and Paul Maholm through their arbitration years, with club options for an additional year. There’s no guarantee that these guys are going to be better than they were in 2008, but these were all smart, responsible signings.

Going into last season, the biggest question mark about Doumit was his health. He could hit, but he could never stay healthy through a full season. And, well, there was a question about his defense. When he beat out Ronny Paulino for the starting catching job, I truly felt that this was a different Pirates team, willing to take a chance on a player with more upside. He stayed healthy and produced (.318/.357/.501 with 15 HR in 116 games). McLouth had a monster first half before cooling off, finishing .276/.356/.497 with 26 HR.

Maholm became the Pirates’ ace in 2008. Yes, that was partly due to Snell and Gorzellany’s regression, but Maholm’s numbers, while not spectacular, were certainly solid: 206.3 IP, 201 H, 63 BB, 139 K, 1.279 WHIP. In a year when the other starters had trouble making it through 2 or 3 innings, that saved a lot of wear and tear on the bullpen. He’s not a strikeout pitcher (only one game with 10 K last year), but he keeps his walks down, and he cut down on his home runs in the second half of the season.

Gorzellany was abused by Jim Tracy in 2007. In one stretch, he threw 110, 118, 120, 97, 117, 95, 123, 103, 107, 100, 109, 112 pitches. He finished September with a similar string of games. It was no surprise when he struggled last season. I would watch him get pulled in the 3rd inning and curse Jim Tracy’s ghost. Of course, arriving at spring training overweight didn’t help Gorzellany, either. Hopefully, the newer, healthier, something-approaching-svelter Gorzellany will bounce back in 2009.

I have no idea what to make of Ian Snell. Big talent, big arm, but so frustrating to watch. He was sometimes dominant and usually reliable in 2006-07, but last year finished with a 1.765 WHIP and was chased before the 6th inning in 14 of his 31 starts.

Ross Ohlendorf, another hard thrower acquired in the trades last year, has a chance to crack the rotation this spring. He could be very good if he learns to throw a third pitch effectively. Maholm and Snell are penciled in. The other three spots will go to some combination of Gorzellany, Ohlendorf, Zach Duke, and Jeff Kartens. Phil Dumatrait, when he’s healthy, is also an option.

No, this team is not going to be a contender. But for the first time in years, it’s not hard to imagine the day when it could be.

Via Swamp All-Timer Bensell:

This week is pretty much a workout only week for Derby contenders (sorry Turf Paradise Derby entrants, but I doubt we’ll see any of you lot in the starting gate come May 2nd). Here’s my updated Top Twenty, with final odds from the first Kentucky Derby Future Wager pool (that closed on February 15th) and last week’s ranking (also eligible designates a spot on the previous “four to watch list,” which has been eliminated and replaced with an expanded list to make it an even twenty on the Watch List):

1. Old Fashioned (7-1) (1)
2. Capt. Candyman Can (25-1) (2)
3. Pioneerof the Nile (13-1) (5)
4. Friesan Fire (18-1) (4)
5. Hello Broadway (30-1) (6)
6. Desert Party (Field – 9-5) (7)
7. Midshipman (19-1) (3)
8. Giant Oak (24-1) (AE)
9. Stardom Bound (22-1) (9)
10. Patena (22-1) (8)
11. Papa Clem (44-1) (12)
12. Flying Pegasus (28-1) (NR)
13. Beethoven (31-1) (NR)
14. Imperial Council (Field – 9-5) (NR)
15. General Quarters (Field – 9-5) (NR)
16. I Want Revenge (54-1) (AE)
17. Theregoesjojo (Field – 9-5) (AE)
18. The Pamplemousse (29-1) (NR)
19. Silver City (35-1) (NR)
20. Taqarub (46-1) (NR)

Old Fashioned won his season debut at Oaklawn on Monday in the Southwest Stakes, beating Silver City among other challengers. I moved Midshipman down mainly because his workout tab hasn’t been a bit sparse from Dubai and it seems that his first start is still undecided, though all indications are that he will be ready for the UAE Derby come March 28th where he should meet his stablemates Desert Party & Vineyard Haven.

Giant Oak moves up off reviewing the Risen Star Stakes replay several times this week – it is almost impossible to have a worse trip than this colt had when he finished 5th to Friesan Fire and company. He’s the “now” horse that all of the wise guys love, but I love his breeding and look forward to his next outing in either the Rebel Stakes or Louisiana Derby. Flying Pegasus moves into the Top 12 off his second in the Risen Star, his seasonal debut. I’m not convinced he wants a mile and a quarter, but his sire (Fusaichi Pegasus) did win the Roses in 2000 so he can’t be completely dismissed as a sprinter.

Of the 5 horses that didn’t make my original sixteen, the two most intriguing are Imperial Council and Beethoven. The former is trained by Shug McGaughey who ran 2nd in the Derby back in 1989 with Easy Goer and who is one of the most respected conditoners in the business. John Ward trains Beethoven and he has previously been in the promised land with Monarchos’ win in 2001.

Next week brings the Sham Stakes at Santa Anita and the Fountain of Youth at Gulfstream Park, along with 2 minor preps at Turfway Park and Sunland Park, and at least a fifth of my Top Twenty will be in action. Probables for the Sham include I Want Revenge and The Pamplemousse, while the Fountain of Youth is expected to draw Capt. Candyman Can, Beethoven, This Ones for Phil and Notonthesamepage among others.

Next week I will start making picks for all of the (major) prep races being run, so you can get a handle on how good (or bad) my handicapping is leading up to the Derby. Until then, may all of your julips be mint.

Via (and thanks to all-time Swamper) Bensell.

I won’t be the first person to ever call his Kentucky Derby contender preview “The Derby Dozen” as Steve Haskin has a weekly column in the Blood-Horse called “Haskin’s Derby Dozen” so tip of the hat to him, but here is my intial Top Twelve. I plan on updating the list each week, and beginning with next week’s post I’m going to go a bit more in depth on two contenders as well. Odds quoted are from the first Kentucky Futures Derby Pool’s morning line.

1. Old Fashioned (10-1) – This son of Unbridled’s Song is the only horse in my Top 12 that has a Beyer Speed Figure in triple digits at a distance of a mile of more, clocking an even 100 in his win in the Remsen Stakes last November going 1 1/8 miles. He is trained by Larry Jones, who has run second in each of the past 2 Derbys with Hard Spun and ill-fated Eight Belles. Jones is very high on this colt, saying he is further along at this point in the year than any of his previous contenders.

2. Capt. Candyman Can (10-1) – This gelded son of Candy Ride had a win and a third over the Churchill Downs track last fall in a pair of graded stakes. He is trained by Carl Nafgzer’s longtime assitant Ian Wilkes, who has just started to branch out on his own the past few years as Carl has scaled back his operation. Wilkes was a part of the Street Sense team, so he knows how to get a horse peaking on the First Saturday in May. I like the fact this horribly named gelding made his first start off the winter layoff in the 7 furlong Hutchenson Stakes at Gulfstream Park, which he won by a length and a half with a nice 101 Beyer. Wilkes has opted to take the old school route of gradually lengthening his race distances, leading up to the challenge of the 1 1/4 Derby. I think more horses would benefit if they were prepped in this manner.

3. Midshipman (12-1) – The Breeders Cup Juvenile winner has been in Dubai since December as he prepares for a Derby run with his Godolphin stablemates. The Dubai-Derby prep route has not produced a finish better than sixth place in the 5 previous attempts (China Visit in 2000), but this group of runners for trainer Saeed bin Suroor have a much better 2 year old base, not to mention pedigrees. Another son of Unbridled’s Song, the biggest question in my mind is how he takes to the dirt since he has never raced outside of the synthetic Cailfornia tracks. The track at Nad al Sheba plays fairly similar to Churchill Downs, so his preps in the desert should do him good.

4. Freison Fire (12-1) – This A.P. Indy colt has won both his starts this year, 2 Grade IIIs at the Fair Grounds, and is 2 of 3 since trainer Larry Jones put blinkers on him. Both races were visually impressive and earned him Beyer figures of 96 & 93. Jones has said the light has finally come on for this colt and he bred to get the distance.

5. Pioneerof the Nile (20-1) – Since moving to Bob Baffert’s barn this son of Empire Maker has won 2 Graded Stakes, including the Grade I CashCall (ne Hollywood) Futurity last December. He will relish the added distance, but prepping out West in a concern as that means he will not have a race on anything other than a synthetic track (although he did start twice on the grass when as a juvenile). If any trainer can do it Baffert can, but there are question marks.

6. Hello Broadway (50-1) – Barclay Tagg, of Funny Cide fame, is the trainer of this son of Broken Vow. Making his first start since early November Hello Broadway ran a good second to the #2 horse on this list. Tagg is another member of the old school of training, and I like that each race will be a bit further until May. He’s got the breeding for the Derby distance and his trainer has been in the Winner’s Circle before; this half brother to Nobiz Like Showbiz is one to watch.

7. Desert Party (5-2 as part of the all others field) – The second Goldolphin entry on this list, this son of Street Cry won the UAE 2000 Guineas by 4 1/2 lengths earlier today. A $2.1 million purchase before he had made a start as a 2 year old, he was trained by Eoin Harty for Darley Stables in the U.S. last year before being transfered to bin Suroor in Dubai this winter. He has now beaten Vineyard Haven (see #10 below) twice in 3 starts (splitting a pair of meetings at Saratoga last fall), and has to be considered a big threat if the Godolphin horses come in force.

8. Patena (20-1) – IEAH Stables and Rick Dutrow just purchased a majority interest in this colt after he ran 2nd to Friesan Fire in the Lecomte Stakes at the Fair Grounds. Bred for distance, this son of Seeking the Gold has Dutrow & company over the moon since the Lecomte was his first start on a dirt track and he easily posted a career best Beyer figure. Dutrow may not be likable, but he proved last year he knows how to at least win the Derby.

9. Stardom Bound (12-1) – The lone filly one the list, she was purchased by IEAH Stables (of Big Brown fame) at auction last November after winning the Breeders Cup Juvenile Filly for $5.7 million. Now trained by Bobby Frankel, there is a strong chance of her making her next stop in the Santa Anita Derby and bypassing the Santa Anita Oaks altogether. Her Beyer numbers are a little below the boys, but her wins have been so easy she hasn’t been extended yet so I take the numbers with a grain of salt.

10. Vineyard Haven (12-1) – This son of Lido Palace was my #2 horse until today’s fourth place finish in the UAE 2000 Guineas. It was his first start since early October, and for a new trainer halfway around the world at that, so I’m going to throw this race out if he responds well later in the Dubai Festival of Racing and ships in. Saeed bin Suroor said before the race Vineyard wasn’t ready for a top effort going into the race, but it was a disappontment none the less. Bobby Frankel owned and trained his colt last season, but sold him to Goldolphin for a rumored $12 million after his Champagne Stakes win last fall.

11. Poltergeist (5-2 – field) – This so of Tapit was an impressive winner in an allowance/optional claiming race at Oaklawn Park last out. Trained by Donnie Von Hemel he is starting Monday in the Southwest Stakes at the Arkansas track. If he can handle the step up in class, this colt will be an interesting one to follow the rest of the spring as Hot Springs seems to have turned into a very solid Derby Pipeline.

12. Papa Clem (20-1) – This son of back-to-back Leading Sire Smart Strike (Curlin’s papa) ran a strong 2nd to Pioneerof the Nile in the Robert B. Lewis at Santa Anita in his stakes debut last out, pressing the pace and holding on well. He may head for the Louisiana Derby next to get not only dirt exeprience, but graded earings as well.

Four knocking on the door: Giant Oak, I Want Revenge, Theregoesjojo and Shafted.

Alias: Mulroney N’Guk “Andre” Beauchemain Trudeau; alias: Kipkark “Night Train” deBudweiser MacKinnon; alias: Kawasaki “Ginsu” Hiroshima; alias Bob “Alias” Dylan Zimmerman deHarmonica.

That is to say, effectively, nobody has the slightest idea who this guy really is. In fact, you don’t want to get into one of his cabs. No way, never. It’s not that he’s a bad driver; in fact he is an excellent driver. One of the best; remarkably so. It is more that he is clinically insane. Believed to be a Haitian mystical Voodoo priest on the run, Jean-Emmanuelle Pierre “Bondye Bingo” Maxime LaLouche is one serious motherfucker. Oddly, he refuses to take cash, credit or debit for his services. In fact he requests no payment whatsoever. But at the end of each cab ride, he reaches into your soul and causes you a lifetime of agonizing distress. He is very aggressive and somewhat terrifying. Although well known to police, law enforcement simply refuses to go anywhere near him. Only one other person possesses his bizarre powers, a female from his native Haiti; however they refuse to mate. Or even meet. A typical conversation with Jean-Emmanuelle Pierre “Bondye Bingo” Maxime LaLouche runs something like this:

“Hi there, please take me to the Granville and West Broadway intersection.”
“I drive you there, sure, mon. But you’re going to die if you don’t drink three pints of blood from a virgin goat while standing in a bonfire as a Bunny Wailer song is playing backwards on a vinyl LP. I’ll make sure of it.”
“So, uh, about 15 minutes?”
“Yeah, give or take.”

Known for his stamina, cryptic veiled threats and uncanny subliminal mind control, Jean-Emmanuelle Pierre “Bondye Bingo” Maxime LaLouche is a solid driver that would be a worthy member of any team.

A remarkable man and one of the hardest working cab drivers in all of the British Columbia lower mainland, Akbar B’ani-Sadr Bubbabullah, who hails from parts unknown, is believed to work 72-hour shifts and does not speak any identifiable language. Does he have a wife? We don’t know. He may not even know. A son? We don’t know that either. Does he have a Miniature Pinscher puppy? We can only speculate. Akbar B’ani-Sadr Bubbabullah, affectionately known as “Bubba” (the connotations of which are entirely lost on him, being illiterate) drives a Honda Civic Hybrid that runs on a combination of kerosene, Nicaraguan rum, flax seed oil and locally grown hydroponic marijuana roots. His vehicle famously sports an unidentifiable compact disc dangling from its rear-view mirror, a taxi permit written in a language that remains mysterious and features a picture of someone else, a radio station that only his cab can receive and which broadcasts what is rumored to be obscure religious disco music from an Asian sub-continent nation state that no longer exists. What we do know for certain is that Akbar B’ani-Sadr Bubbabullah has eaten nothing but A&W Papa Burgers for the last seven years, each of which he insists the employees make in vegetarian form. What once caused endless consternation is now simply laughed at by old-school A&W staffers who heartily chuckle “Oh, that’s just old Akbar B’ani-Sadr Bubbabullah at it again!”

A solid driver who is not to be underestimated. Or interviewed.