Sportsfrog.com

(from Bensell, as always)

Breeders Cup Friday race preview:

If you want to see the reasoning behind my picks, please head to the Swamp and check out the end of the first page of “The Newly Renamed Official 2009 Breeders Cup Thread.” Otherwise, take these at face value. The race coverage starts at 3:30 Eastern on ESPN2 Friday afternoon at 3:30 Eastern. And if you haven’t watched horse racing in HD you are in for a treat. Good luck with any and all wagers – as long as they don’t make mine a loser.

Breeders Cup Marathon (Race 3 @ Santa Anita):
#3 Nite Light
#6 Mastery
#8 Man of Iron
#5 Father Time

Juvenile Filly Turf (Race 4):
#11 Junia Tepzia
#9 Hatheer
#7 House of Grace
#8 Lillie Langfry

Juvenile Filly (Race 5):
#7 Devil May Care
#11 Always a Princess
#8 She Be Wild
#6 Connie and Michael

Filly & Mare Turf (Race 6):
#6 Midday
#4 Magical Fantasy
#8 Maram
#3 Rutherienne

Filly & Mare Sprint (Race 7):
#9 Ventura
#2 Sara Louise
#8 Seventh Street
#7 Informed Decision

Ladies Classic (Race 8):
#7 Music Note
#8 Rainbow View
#5 Proviso
#1 Careless Jewel

This book report comes courtesy of longtime contributor and resident horse expert Bensell.

First off, let me admit that I’ve met Jim Squires on a couple of occasions and have always found him friendly. There is no way that I would even consider him an acquaintance, much less a friend, and I’m positive that he wouldn’t know me from Adam. I enjoyed his first book about thoroughbred racing, A Horse of a Different Color, which was about the 2001 Kentucky Derby winner Monarchos whom Squires bred at his Two Bucks Farm. I had heard rumblings about this book, and its attacks on the industry’s status quo for months, so I was looking forward to it immensely.

Squires focuses the book on the 2008 racing season, interspersing the story of downsizing his own farm after falling prey to both financial and medical issues. He portrays the thoroughbred industry as one dominated by a small ring of insiders who fleece the richest of the newcomers, while keeping the smaller farms in a bind by controlling access to the elite side of the breeding business. This is an oversimplification of the current situation, and a take that puts Squires in a good light as the story unfolds. But the truth is much closer to Squires version than the happy front that the horse racing elite would like the average fan, or more importantly a new owner, to believe.

The 2008 Kentucky Derby has been called by many in the industry as “The Last Steroid Derby.” Squires has a legitimate place on the soapbox as he wrote an editorial before the ‘08 Derby decrying the use of steroids in racing. Most casual fans remember the horror of the runner-up, the lone filly in the race named Eight Belles, snapping both front ankles shortly after crossing the finish line that necessitated her being put down on the track even before the winner Big Brown had been pulled up on the far turn. The filly’s trainer, Larry Jones, was vilified by many parts of the media and various animal rights group as a monster for what turned out to be a complete freak accident, as the filly had never been injured or treated with any sort of steroids (including ones that were legal in racing at the time). Jones has long trained horses owned by Squires, and the reader gets a good look at the trials and tribulations that Jones had to face in the months after the Derby which led to his decision to retire from the industry at the end of the 2009 racing season.

Squires talks candidly of the culture of medication that dominates the racing industry. One of the best examples of this is last year’s Derby winner, Big Brown. His trainer, Richard Dutrow, Jr., has served numerous suspensions for violation of the few medical rules that were in place before last year’s changes. But the real pushers in steroid race are the veterinarians, allowing the trainers to one up each other with newer and better (and impossible to detect) forms of medications. Squires tells the story of Dr. Alex Harthill, who treated at least 26 Kentucky Derby winners in the years between 1948 and 1989. And, as Squires writes, “a lot of losers were in his care during the week before the Derby as well, supporting a belief in some quarters that his presence at Churchill Downs could have been the most important factor in countless outcomes of the world’s greatest race in the modern era.” He recounts several well known Harthill stories, as well as a few I’ve never heard.

But Squires saves most of his venom for the group of insiders who dominate all aspects of the thoroughbred industry, a group of elite men he calls “The Dinnies,” after the Chairman of the Jockey Club Odgen “Dinny” Phipps. He does a very good job laying out how the Jockey Club, and a few of the other major organizations, rule the sport. For years this group has resisted any calls for reform of medication and had only started moving on some of the other safety issues, such as artificial racing surfaces and insurance for not only jockeys, but exercise riders and grooms as well. Squires details how this elite controls the most important part of thoroughbred racing – the breeding and auction sides of the industry. He tells about how he was approached before one of his yearlings was to be sold at auction with an offer to buy the horse privately before it would enter the sales ring and that Squires and the new owner would split the sales price. When he declined the offer, he quickly found the main consignors (sales agents) had decided to boycott his horses. This practice of not disclosing who the real owner of the horse makes it easy to underbid on your own horse secretly, and is one of the widespread unethical (if not illegal) practices that are prevalent in the industry today. The lack of transparency has been the way many a new owner has found himself with a $200,000 colt that had actually only cost the consignor about half of that amount.

This book explains much of what the thoroughbred industry has become over the past few decades. It is an industry dominated by a handful of insiders and run on heavy doses of legal, and much more often illegal, medications. The lines of “good and evil” aren’t as clear as Squires would like you to believe, but he does a good job of outlining how the industry has gotten itself to its present condition. Squires touches on all aspects of the thoroughbred industry, from breeding to the sales ring to the race track. This book is not for the casual racing fan, but for any serious fan of the game it is a must read.
(Note: This website received a promotional copy of this book)

from the one and only Bensell:

I haven’t been that bad in my previews so far, given my 3rd pick from the Derby Preview ran second (Pioneerof the Nile) and my 1st and 3rd picks for the Preakness (Rachel Alexandra & Musket Man) ran as predicted. With the focus being on Mine That Bird and his jockey’s quest for the Calvin Crown, let’s see if I can give you a full trifecta (morning line odds in parenthesis).

Dunkirk (4-1) He broke bad in Derby, and never got into the race, as he finished a nonthreatening 11th. He’s a $3.7 million yearling purchase who has the field best Beyer number, a 108 from his runner up performance in the Florida Derby, and comes from the barn of 2007 Belmont winning trainer Todd Pletcher. I’m looking forward to a big second half of the year from this colt.

Chocolate Candy (10-1) Jerry Hollendorfer sent this colt to Belmont Park after his rough Derby trip, where he finished a troubled 5th in his first start on a dirt track. I look for a big improvement and the best chance for a Triple Crown winner for eventual Hall of Famer Hollendorfer.

Summer Bird (12-1) He’s the other horse by Belmont winner Birdstone, and his 6th place in the Kentucky Derby was better than it appears on paper. I’m not buying that the pace scenario benefits the front runners this year, and I think both Birds will be flying at the end.

Mine That Bird (2-1) The Derby winner keeps proving me wrong and it wouldn’t surprise me to see him complete the Calvin Crown. I just think the 2 early Triple Crown races have left him at less than his best for tomorrow’s race, especially as a short priced favorite.

Miner’s Escape (15-1) This Mineshaft colt appears to be the other speed horse in the race, with Charitable Man being the main pacesetter, a route that a Nick Zito trained horse (Da’ Tara) used last year to win. I don’t expect him to hang around as late as last year’s Zito surprise, but I do think he puts enough pressure on Charitable Man to ruin both of their chances at big money.

Charitable Man (3-1) The wise guy horse of this year, he’s a perfect 3 for 3 on the dirt and 2 for 2 at Belmont Park. His breeding screams for the added distance, but his running style is forwardly placed, and Alan Garcia is not going to steal this race like he did last year.

Mr. Hot Stuff (15-1) This full brother to Colonel John ran 15th in the Derby last out in his first start on a dirt track. I think he’s a much better horse on the synthetic track and look for his best performances this summer and fall out West on their various “fake” surfaces.

Flying Private (12-1) He ran a career best Beyer Speed Figure (102) with his 4th place effort in the Preakness, but I think he’s much more likely to finish closer to last place as he did in the Derby, than be a superfecta threat in the Belmont.

Brave Victory (15-1) The other Nick Zito trainee has the pedigree of a sprinter and despite hitting the board in 2 of his 3 lifetime races at Belmont Park, I don’t see him being a factor.

Luv Gov (20-1) The colt that is named for former New York Governor Elliot Spitzer finished 8th in the Preakness, and I would be shocked if the D. Wayne Lukas trainee can manage that in the Belmont Stakes.

There are 5 other Graded Stakes on the card, and I’m going to look at making money by betting Pick 3s and Pick 4s. I’ll post some of my other picks in the Swamp, with my top 4 picks in Belmont anchoring my bets. Good luck with any wager you place.

From swamp all-timer Bensell, enjoy:

If you followed my Kentucky Derby advice, I can’t do anything but apologize. Here’s a brief description of each horse, in the order of having the best chance to win (the odds after Friday’s betting in parenthesis):

13. RACHEL ALEXANDER (3-2) There is always risk of injury, or worse, every time a horse steps on the track but those critics who are claiming that new owner Jess Jackson is putting his filly at risk by running her against the boys simply don’t know what they are talking about (and why would Jackson risk injury to the filly he just paid a rumored $9 million for?). She is the only horse to have more than one Beyer Speed Figure over 100; in fact her last 4 races have all been in triple digits despite not being asked for much by Calvin Borel. With the Derby winning jockey choosing the Oaks winner to ride, you know that this a filly to be respected. The only thing is she will offer no value in the betting line as her odds will only drop further as the money comes in tomorrow; the best chance to make money may be to single her on top in the trifecta and superfecta wheels.

5. FRIESAN FIRE (9-1) My number one pick for the Derby got banged around at the start of the race, managing to beat only one horse after being eased with about a half mile left. He came back with minor cuts on his legs, but it was his first start in 7 weeks and I think the time off worked against him. Larry Jones won the Black Eyed Susans (the Preakness equivalent to the Kentucky Oaks) on Friday, and he may be ready to break through and get his first Triple Crown win as a trainer. His post Derby workout was fantastic and he looks to rebound with another top effort.

3. MUSKET MAN (17-1) He ran a troubled third in the Derby, and should improve off that effort as it was on a sloppy track that he was clearly having problems getting his footing on. He should be able to settle right off the pace on the rail and be ready to pounce on the leaders coming out of the final turn. I sold this son of Yonaguska short when I called him a miler before the Derby, but it’s clear that he will like the shorter distance of the Preakness even more than the mile and a quarter of the Derby.

9. PIONEER OF THE NILE (7-1) This son of Empire Maker failed to win for Bob Baffert for the first time in his 5 starts for the barn when he finished as runner up in the Derby. He’s had a great work out on Monday and should be primed for another big effort. This colt has a ton of heart making it extremely hard for another horse to get past him. I don’t think he saw Mine That Bird blow by him on the rail in the Derby, but he gamely held off Must Man and Papa Clem for the place money.

1. BIG DRAMA (10-1) Of all of the male newcomers, this son of Montbrook has the best chance to take home the Woodlawn Vase given to the winning owner. He’s finished first in last 6 starts, but was disqualified in his only start this year in the Swale Stakes at 7 furlongs at Gulfstream Park. He should be able to control the pace from the inside post, and if he gets loose on the leaf will be hard to catch. I’m not sure if he will be ready to run his best race, but if he is than he stands a big shot at the win.

11. TAKE THE POINTS (14-1) Todd Pletcher’s lone entrant is coming off a fourth place finish in the Santa Anita Derby. Edgar Prado rode him in both of his wins, and his best races have been on the dirt if you go by Beyer Speed Figures. His sire is Even the Score, a son of the red-hot stallion Unbridled’s Song, and he gets plenty of stamina from the female side of his family. He may be a better bet in the Belmont Stakes, but I look for him to run a big race.

7. PAPA CLEM (14-1) The fourth place finisher in the Derby is another colt that will appreciate the turn back in distance. Gary Stute’s father won this race with Snow Chief in 1986, and it wouldn’t be much of a stretch to see another Stute in the Preakness winner’s circle. He’s one of the few horses that are hoping the weather forecast is wrong, and the track comes up fast tomorrow.

2. MINE THAT BIRD (7-1) It wouldn’t surprise me at all if he repeats his Derby run, but the Preakness does not look like it is going to have the same sort of pace scenario that allowed him to unleash his monster move. Mike Smith picks up the mount as Borel moves over to Rachel Alexandra, but he will give the Derby winner the same kind of patient ride. I like his chances much more in the Belmont Stakes, but I don’t think he will bounce off his Derby win and throw in a bad effort in the Preakness.

8. GENERAL QUARTERS (17-1) The feel good story of Derby week was Tom McCarthy’s one horse stable; too bad this Sky Mesa colt could do no better than splitting the field by finishing 10th after having a rough trip. He’s bounced back with a nice work at Churchill Downs on Monday and the word from Pimlico is the General has been the best looking colt on the grounds this week.

6. TERRAIN (24-1) This horse hasn’t won since last August, but this will only be his third start this year so he should improve off his fourth place effort in the Bluegrass Stakes last out. But I don’t see him closing in for more than a minor piece of the purse.

4. LUV GOV (25-1) This horse was a winner at Churchill Downs on the first Saturday in May; unfortunately it was in a maiden race and it was the 10th start of his career. This D. Wayne Lukas trainee was originally thought to be Lukas’ best chance at another Triple Crown race this year, but it is a huge step up from the maiden ranks to a Grade I race. But if any trainer can pull such a move it’s the Coach.

12. TONE IT DOWN (19-1) This Maryland based horse is coming off a third place finish in his stakes debut in the Tesio Stakes. Kent Desormeaux picks up the mount, but I’d be stunned if he can make this big of a step up in class.

10. FLYING PRIVATE (24-1) He ran dead last in the Derby, beaten over 43 lengths, and he has a better chance of completing the Triple Crown of Losers by finishing last in all 3 races than picking up a check at Pimlico.

My betting strategy is going to single Rachel Alexandra in a few Pick 3s and the Pick 4 and try to catch some long shots in the first legs. I’ll also have a back up ticket of Friesan Fire, Musket Man, Pioneerof the Nile, Big Drama and/or Take the Points & Papa Clem with my top choice or two in each of the earlier races. I’m taking a stand against Mine That Bird, not because he’s a fluke but since the pace scenario comes up against him. I was feeling great as the horses were loading into to the gate two weeks ago, as I had 2 live Pick 3s and a Pick 4 with a total of 9 horses possible to win. But I wasn’t the only person stunned when Mine That Bird came storming up the rail; hopefully tomorrow will be a more profitable day. I’ll post some of my other picks for the day in the Swamp and always good luck on any wagers.

(In one great post by Bensell. Here he is…)

Here’s my long awaited 135th Kentucky Derby Preview – and that’s about  the amount of times I’ve changed my mind during the writing process. The one thing I do know is the best 3 year old in the country will not be entering the starting gate tomorrow at 6:24 EDT, since Rachel Alexandra won the Kentucky Oaks on Friday afternoon by over 20 lengths. This filly has the looks of becoming a huge superstar, yet she is not even nominated to the Triple Crown since her owner does not believe in running fillies against colts. You may hear talk of her running in the Preakness Stakes in two weeks, but I’ll be stunned if her owner puts up the $100,000 needed to enter her in either of the last two Triple Crown races. I was far from the only one to think she was the best 3 year old before the Oaks, and now I’m sure I’m not the only one thinking she may be the best horse in training of any age. That said – here’s how I see the field starting with the most likely winners first (Friday night odds in parenthesis):

#6 FRIESAN FIRE (9-2) – Larry Jones is back after the running second in the last 2 Derbys, including the ill-fated Eight Belles last year. He has announced he is going to retire at the end of the year to spend more time with his family, and he has his best chance to win the Derby with this son of A. P. Indy. He has won his last 3 races, including the Louisiana Derby last out, and if the track comes up sloppy tomorrow it just adds to his chances.

#19 DESERT PARTY (24-1) – The UAE Derby runner up ran his best race in the U.S. on an off track as a 2 year old, and he is the best shot the powerful Godolphin Stable has sent to Louisville yet. This colt by Street Cry beat his stable mate Regal Ransom 2 out of 3 times in Dubai over the winter, with his only loss by a half length last out. He has been training very sharp over the Churchill Downs strip, and has the stalking style that works well in a large field.

#16 PIONEEROF THE NILE (9-1) – Unbeaten in 4 starts since being switched to Bob Baffert’s barn in December, the main question about this son of Empire Maker is the fact he has never run on dirt (6 of his 8 starts have come on the Synthetic tracks, the other 2 on Turf). He has seemed to take to the track well in the 2 weeks he has been in Louisville, and if anyone knows how take a horse into the Derby at the peak of fitness it is Baffert. This colt would be my top pick if any of his prior wins (or even a good effort) had been on the dirt.

#15 DUNKIRK (8-1) – This Unbridled’s Song colt was the highest price  yearing sold at auction in 2007 ($3.7 million) when the powerful Coolmore Stable outbid the Maktoum’s at the Keeneland September Sale. He ran a nice race when finishing second to the quarter crack plagued Quality Road last out in the Florida Derby, but it was only his third career start. The Todd Pletcher trainee’s biggest weakness is that inexperience – the last horse to win the Derby without a start as a 2 year old was Apollo in 1882.

#10 REGAL RANSOM (33-1) – The “lesser” half of the Godolphin entry is coming off a front running win in the UAE Derby 5 weeks ago. He posted one of the best debut Beyers in his win at Saratoga last fall, and the son of Distorted Humor has a nice stamina base from his female side. I can see a scenario where this colt gets lose on the lead ala War Emblem earlier this decade.

#7 PAPA CLEM (13-1) – The Arkansas Derby winner has knocked heads with some of the best horses on the West Coast before coming east for his last 2 races. Friesan Fire beat him by over 7 lengths in the Louisiana Derby, but he may have not liked the sloppy track. That may be bad news as rain is heavily in the forecast for tomorrow, or it could have just been a case of him needing to adjust to the dirt from the synthetic tracks in California.

#13 I WANT REVENGE (6-1) – Since coming East for the Gotham Stakes this colt has come into his own. My only question is about the level competition he has been facing at Aqueduct. Jeff Mullins has been getting plenty of grief, and rightly so, for violating the rules on the day this son of Stephen Got Even won the Wood Memorial (after a terrible start in what may have been one of the best prep performances of the year). But I have to wonder if the colt will “bounce” off such an effort and/or if the criticism is taking a toll of the notoriously ill-tempered trainer. His rider Joe Talamo is the 19 year old star of the Animal Planet’s show “Jockeys” which was just renewed for a second season – guess who the Discovery Channel is rooting for… (Ed’s note: I Want Revenge was scratched this morning with a hot spot on his left front ankle. Of course, if you were listening to Bensell in the first place, you’d have bet six other horses before IWR. — Bronto)

#5 HOLD ME BACK (11-1) – Bill Mott may have lost Pioneerof the Nile to Bob Baffert over the winter, but he comes in with a very live shot with this Giant’s Causeway colt. He has run twice this year, winning the Lanes End and finishing second last out in the Bluegrass Stakes. His main knock may be that he finished up the track in his only start on the dirt last November in the Remsen Stakes. Mott put him away after that poor effort and he has come back looking impressive – his jockey Kent Desormeaux is the only rider in this year’s edition that has won the Derby more than once (he has 3 wins, including Big Brown last year).

#9 CHOCOLATE CANDY (9-1) – I feel like the West Coast horses are a bit better than their Eastern counterparts (or at least the ones that made it to the gate in Louisville) this year. This Candy Ride colt has been on a decided up swing lately, running second to Pioneerof the Nile last out after winning 2 in a row in Northern California. I think the Santa Anita Derby may well turn out to be the best of the preps, and will probably regret having this colt so low my list.

#12 GENERAL QUARTERS (5-1) – The feel good story of this year’s Derby, this colt is owned and trained by a retired principal from Louisville. In the fall of 2007 Tom McCarthy had his last horse claimed from his stable so he went to the September Sales at Keeneland to buy a horse to restock. He had his eye on 2 – this Sky Mesa colt sold first with McCarthy dropping out of the bidding before he sold for $20,000. Six months later the horse is making his debut in a maiden claiming race and McCarthy gets the colt for $20,000 after winning a 4 way shake for the claim. Ten races later the colt is a Grade One winner, giving his owner the time of his life. The colt seems to be peaking but whether that can get him a win tomorrow seems unlikely – combine that with the low odds and I’m leaving this colt out of most my wagers.

#3 MR. HOT STUFF (33-1) – This full brother to last year’s Travers winner Colonel John seems to be learning something with every race. It took him 5 tries to break his maiden, but he has since run 2 nice thirds to The Pamplemouse and Pioneerof the Nile out West. I think he will only get better as he gets race experience, but that doesn’t bode well for his Derby chances.

#2 MUSKET MAN (26-1) – If it wasn’t for his sprint breeding, I’d have this son of Yonaguska much higher on the list. He’s won 5 of 6 starts, including the 1 1/8 Illinois Derby, but I can’t shake the feeling he nothing more than a miler.

#4 ADVICE (50-1) – One of 3 Todd Pletcher trained entries, this colt is coming off a win 2 weeks ago in the Lexington Stakes. He didn’t seem to like the dirt the one time he ran on it in the Sunland Derby, but the Todd has got to break his 0-fer Derby streak at some point – he has the record with 21 starters without a win.

#1 WEST SIDE BERNIE (47-1) – He was the runner up to I Want Revenge in the Wood Memorial after going wide. There was no way he anything but second best that day, and I don’t think he can improve much off that outing.

#17 SUMMER BIRD (35-1) – This son of Belmont Stakes winning Birdstone closed for third in the Arkansas Derby after a slow start. He only made his debut in March and with his come from behind style I find it impossible to think that he can be a factor in a 20 horse field. I’m shocked the connections didn’t wait for the Belmont, but we may well see him in New York no matter where he finishes in the Derby.

#18 NOWHERE TO HIDE (52-1) – The Nick Zito trainee has ran 4th in all 3 of his starts in stakes races. I don’t see him finishing anywhere that high tomorrow.

#20 FLYING PRIVATE (37-1) – It wouldn’t be a Kentucky Derby without D. Wayne Lukas and unfortunately he brings another overmatched colt to the race. Thoroughbred racing is better when Lukas is thriving – here’s hoping he gets another great horse before he finally retires.

#14 ATOMIC RAIN (68-1) – He’s coming off a 4th place finish in the Wood Memorial, but he seems much better to sprinting to me. I would be stunned if he’s anywhere near to the top of the field.

#9 JOIN IN THE DANCE (57-1) – This Sky Mesa colt may be a speed factor, but I don’t see the 3rd Pletcher entry as a factor.

#8 MINE THAT BIRD (47-1) – This Birdstone colt ran his last 2 races at Sunland Park, with medicore speed figures. Another nonfactor.

I’ll post some of my actual bets in The Swamp, but be assured that I’ll be keying Friesan Fire, Desert Party and Pioneerof the Nile in my bets. Good luck to all that place a wager on my state’s biggest event.

This is a huge weekend for Kentucky Derby preps – first the Derby Watch list, with last week’s rankings and probable next start after the name, then a preview of this week’s races:

1. Old Fashioned (1- Rebel Stakes 3/14)
2. Pioneerof the Nile (2- San Felipe Stakes 3/14)
3. Friesan Fire (3- Louisiana Derby 3/14)
4. Desert Party (4- UAE Derby 3/28)
5. I Want Revenge (15- Wood Memorial 4/4)
6. Hello Broadway (5- Tampa Bay Derby 3/14)
7. Quality Road (6- Florida Derby 3/28)
8. The Pamplemousse (10- Santa Anita Derby 4/4)
9. Patena (7- Louisiana Derby 3/14)
10. Papa Clem (12- Louisiana Derby 3/14)
11. Dunkirk (17- Florida Derby 3/28)
12. Giant Oak (11- Louisiana Derby 3/14)
13. Beethoven (13- Florida Derby 3/28)
14. Theregoesjojo (14- Florida Derby 3/28)
15. Imperial Council (9- Wood Memorial 4/4)
16. Flying Pegasus (16- Louisiana Derby 3/14)
17. Chocolate Candy (NR- Santa Anita Derby 3/28)
18. West Side Bernie (NR- Lanes End Stakes 3/21)
19. Rachel Alexandra (NR- Fairgrounds Oaks 3/14)
20. Stardom Bound (8- Ashland Stakes 4/4 or Santa Anita Derby 3/28)

Knocking on the Door: Capt. Candyman Can, General Quarters, Mr Hot Stuff, Ryehill Dancer, and Take the Points

Preview time – first up the Louisiana Derby:

1. Free Country (Desourmeaux) 12-1
2. Soul Warrior (Bridgmohan) 20-1
3. Patena (Albarado) 7-2
4. Terrain (Leparoux) 10-1
5. Flying Pegasus (Velazquez) 8-1
6. Giant Oak (Graham) 4-1
7. Uno Mas (Hernandez Jr) 12-1
8. Papa Clem (Bejarano) 8-1
9. Friesan Fire (Saez) 5-2
10. Nowhere to Hide (Lanerie) 15-1

With fully a quarter of my Top Twenty list in the field, the rankings should get a real shake up next week. Even though my rankings don’t have the finish in this order, I’m trying to get tomorrow right in these predictions. I think Patena wins it, as Dutrow will have him cranked in the first race out his stable. Friesan Fire will run a good race, but Larry Jones will not have him at the top of his game. Giant Oak will find trouble again, while California shipper Papa Clem claims the place in his first race on dirt.

Win – Patena
Place – Papa Clem
Show – Friesan Fire

Tampa Bay Derby:

1. Perfect Bull (Butler) 30-1
2. Musket Man (Centeno) 8-1
3. Nowhere to Hide (Garcia) 5-1
4. Hello Broadway (Coa) 3-1
5. Warrior’s Reward (Montalvo) 12-1
6. Sumo (Rose) 6-1
7. Join in the Dance (Trujillo) 12-1
8. General Quarters (Lopez) 4-1
9. Bear’s Rocket (Allen Jr) 8-1
10. Justdontcallmejeri (Rios) 12-1
11. Top Seed (Maragh) 20-1

Hello Broadway ships into Tampa from Gulfstream Park and avoids most of the big Florida players here. If he doesn’t win this, Tagg may well take him off the Derby Trail. Ian Wilkes’ second Derby contender Warrior’s Reward seems like the strongest challenger, even with the Tampa-based General Quarters coming off a win in the local prep race (Sam Davis Stakes) last out.

Win: Hello Broadway
Place: Warrior’s Reward
Show: General Quarters

San Felipe Stakes:

1. He’s Really Big (Gryder) 30-1
2. Pioneerof the Nile (Gomez) 2-5
3. Feisty Suances (Flores) 10-1
4. Shafted (Rosario) 8-1
5. Jeranimo (Blanc) 20-1
6. Kelly Leak (Espinoza) 6-1
7. New Bay (Talamo) 8-1

I see no one besting Pioneerof the Nile here. Shafted has the best chance for an upset in my opinion, but he is just as likely to run off the board as to running a big race.

Win: Pioneerof the Nile
Place: Shafted
Show:Kelly Leak

Rebel Stakes:

1. Old Fashioned (Dominguez) 7-5
2. Hamazing Destiny (Thompson) 5-1
3. Poltergeist (Hamilton) 15-1
4. Pointing Home (Garcia) 15-1
5. Wise Kid (Caraballo) 9-2
6. His Greatness (Sterling Jr) 12-1
7. Captain Cherokee (Quinonez) 8-1
8. Silver City (Court) 4-1
9. Win Willy (Berry) 20-1

Old Fashioned was not worked much before his win in the Southwest Stakes last out when he made it 3 straight wins to start his career, but he ran a better than the speed figure would indicate. I see a marked improvement from him, resulting in an easy win. Poltergeist is better than his last out and Silver City seems to be more suited to sprinting, but they are better than most of the field.

Win: Old Fashioned
Place: Poltergeist
Show: Silver City

Sorry about missing last week, but it was unavoidable. The upside is we got the first serious Derby Preps out of the way last weekend. Quality Road’s win in the Fountain of Youth and The Pamplemousse’s victory in the Sham Stakes both vault them up the chart, while my #2 Capt. Candyman Can drops off the list with a disappointing fourth at Gulfstream Park. Midshipman falls off the list entirely as he has a soft tissue tear and will be rested through the Triple Crown to prep for a summer comeback.

This weekend’s Preps come from Aqueduct, the Gotham Stakes, and a race that usually impacts the first Friday in May only – the Santa Anita Oaks. Stardom Bound has been installed as the 2-5 favorite in what could be her last race against the fillies for a while; assuming a win it’s on to the Santa Anita Derby and the boys on April 4th. Will O Way seems to present to biggest obstacle to Stardom Bound’s winning tomorrow and I’d be surprised if the favorite loses. But the biggest female rival to last year’s Juvenile champ is Evita Argentina – winner in her last out against the boys in the San Vincente Stakes. It’s too bad that Evita Argentina is a sprinter and is unlikely to meet Stardom Bound this season.

The Gotham Stakes marks the stakes debut of Imperial Council, Shug McGaughey’s best Derby shot since Saarland. This son of Empire Maker is 1 for 1 this year, and 2 for 3 in his career, and coming off a terrific allowance win at Gulfstream Park. He’s been made the morning line favorite even though Haynesfield has won his last 3 races – all stakes, though the first 2 were restricted to New York breds. The horse I like to complete the exacta behind Imperial Council is I Want Revenge; the first and second choices on the morning line so it’s not really going out on a limb. Sometimes you just have to call it as you see it.

Now for the Top Twenty – last ranking and probable next start after name:

1. Old Fashioned (1- Rebel Stakes 3/14)
2. Pioneerof the Nile (3- San Felipe Stakes 3/14)
3. Friesan Fire (4- Louisiana Derby 3/14)
4. Desert Party (6- UAE Derby 3/28)
5. Hello Broadway (5- Tampa Bay Derby 3/14)
6. Quality Road (NR- Florida Derby 3/28)
7. Patena (10- Louisiana Derby 3/14)
8. Stardom Bound (9- Santa Anita Oaks 3/7)
9. Imperial Council (14- Gotham Stakes 3/7)
10. The Pamplemousse (18- Santa Anita Derby 4/4)
11. Giant Oak (8- Louisiana Derby or Rebel Stakes 3/14)
12. Papa Clem (11- Louisiana Derby 3/14)
13. Beethoven (13- Tampa Bay Derby 3/28)
14. Theregoesjojo (17- Florida Derby 3/28)
15. I Want Revenge (16- Gotham Stakes 3/7)
16. Flying Pegasus (12- Lousiana Derby 3/14)
17. Dunkirk (NR- Florida Derby 3/28)
18. West Side Bernie (NR- Florida Derby 3/28)
19. Take the Points (NR- Santa Anita Derby 4/4)
20. Haynesfield (NR- Gotham Stakes 3/7)

Knocking on the door: Capt. Candyman Can, Chocolate Candy, General Quarters, Mr Hot Stuff, Ryehill Dreamer, Silver City, and Vineyard Haven

Via Swamp All-Timer Bensell:

This week is pretty much a workout only week for Derby contenders (sorry Turf Paradise Derby entrants, but I doubt we’ll see any of you lot in the starting gate come May 2nd). Here’s my updated Top Twenty, with final odds from the first Kentucky Derby Future Wager pool (that closed on February 15th) and last week’s ranking (also eligible designates a spot on the previous “four to watch list,” which has been eliminated and replaced with an expanded list to make it an even twenty on the Watch List):

1. Old Fashioned (7-1) (1)
2. Capt. Candyman Can (25-1) (2)
3. Pioneerof the Nile (13-1) (5)
4. Friesan Fire (18-1) (4)
5. Hello Broadway (30-1) (6)
6. Desert Party (Field – 9-5) (7)
7. Midshipman (19-1) (3)
8. Giant Oak (24-1) (AE)
9. Stardom Bound (22-1) (9)
10. Patena (22-1) (8)
11. Papa Clem (44-1) (12)
12. Flying Pegasus (28-1) (NR)
13. Beethoven (31-1) (NR)
14. Imperial Council (Field – 9-5) (NR)
15. General Quarters (Field – 9-5) (NR)
16. I Want Revenge (54-1) (AE)
17. Theregoesjojo (Field – 9-5) (AE)
18. The Pamplemousse (29-1) (NR)
19. Silver City (35-1) (NR)
20. Taqarub (46-1) (NR)

Old Fashioned won his season debut at Oaklawn on Monday in the Southwest Stakes, beating Silver City among other challengers. I moved Midshipman down mainly because his workout tab hasn’t been a bit sparse from Dubai and it seems that his first start is still undecided, though all indications are that he will be ready for the UAE Derby come March 28th where he should meet his stablemates Desert Party & Vineyard Haven.

Giant Oak moves up off reviewing the Risen Star Stakes replay several times this week – it is almost impossible to have a worse trip than this colt had when he finished 5th to Friesan Fire and company. He’s the “now” horse that all of the wise guys love, but I love his breeding and look forward to his next outing in either the Rebel Stakes or Louisiana Derby. Flying Pegasus moves into the Top 12 off his second in the Risen Star, his seasonal debut. I’m not convinced he wants a mile and a quarter, but his sire (Fusaichi Pegasus) did win the Roses in 2000 so he can’t be completely dismissed as a sprinter.

Of the 5 horses that didn’t make my original sixteen, the two most intriguing are Imperial Council and Beethoven. The former is trained by Shug McGaughey who ran 2nd in the Derby back in 1989 with Easy Goer and who is one of the most respected conditoners in the business. John Ward trains Beethoven and he has previously been in the promised land with Monarchos’ win in 2001.

Next week brings the Sham Stakes at Santa Anita and the Fountain of Youth at Gulfstream Park, along with 2 minor preps at Turfway Park and Sunland Park, and at least a fifth of my Top Twenty will be in action. Probables for the Sham include I Want Revenge and The Pamplemousse, while the Fountain of Youth is expected to draw Capt. Candyman Can, Beethoven, This Ones for Phil and Notonthesamepage among others.

Next week I will start making picks for all of the (major) prep races being run, so you can get a handle on how good (or bad) my handicapping is leading up to the Derby. Until then, may all of your julips be mint.

Via (and thanks to all-time Swamper) Bensell.

I won’t be the first person to ever call his Kentucky Derby contender preview “The Derby Dozen” as Steve Haskin has a weekly column in the Blood-Horse called “Haskin’s Derby Dozen” so tip of the hat to him, but here is my intial Top Twelve. I plan on updating the list each week, and beginning with next week’s post I’m going to go a bit more in depth on two contenders as well. Odds quoted are from the first Kentucky Futures Derby Pool’s morning line.

1. Old Fashioned (10-1) – This son of Unbridled’s Song is the only horse in my Top 12 that has a Beyer Speed Figure in triple digits at a distance of a mile of more, clocking an even 100 in his win in the Remsen Stakes last November going 1 1/8 miles. He is trained by Larry Jones, who has run second in each of the past 2 Derbys with Hard Spun and ill-fated Eight Belles. Jones is very high on this colt, saying he is further along at this point in the year than any of his previous contenders.

2. Capt. Candyman Can (10-1) – This gelded son of Candy Ride had a win and a third over the Churchill Downs track last fall in a pair of graded stakes. He is trained by Carl Nafgzer’s longtime assitant Ian Wilkes, who has just started to branch out on his own the past few years as Carl has scaled back his operation. Wilkes was a part of the Street Sense team, so he knows how to get a horse peaking on the First Saturday in May. I like the fact this horribly named gelding made his first start off the winter layoff in the 7 furlong Hutchenson Stakes at Gulfstream Park, which he won by a length and a half with a nice 101 Beyer. Wilkes has opted to take the old school route of gradually lengthening his race distances, leading up to the challenge of the 1 1/4 Derby. I think more horses would benefit if they were prepped in this manner.

3. Midshipman (12-1) – The Breeders Cup Juvenile winner has been in Dubai since December as he prepares for a Derby run with his Godolphin stablemates. The Dubai-Derby prep route has not produced a finish better than sixth place in the 5 previous attempts (China Visit in 2000), but this group of runners for trainer Saeed bin Suroor have a much better 2 year old base, not to mention pedigrees. Another son of Unbridled’s Song, the biggest question in my mind is how he takes to the dirt since he has never raced outside of the synthetic Cailfornia tracks. The track at Nad al Sheba plays fairly similar to Churchill Downs, so his preps in the desert should do him good.

4. Freison Fire (12-1) – This A.P. Indy colt has won both his starts this year, 2 Grade IIIs at the Fair Grounds, and is 2 of 3 since trainer Larry Jones put blinkers on him. Both races were visually impressive and earned him Beyer figures of 96 & 93. Jones has said the light has finally come on for this colt and he bred to get the distance.

5. Pioneerof the Nile (20-1) – Since moving to Bob Baffert’s barn this son of Empire Maker has won 2 Graded Stakes, including the Grade I CashCall (ne Hollywood) Futurity last December. He will relish the added distance, but prepping out West in a concern as that means he will not have a race on anything other than a synthetic track (although he did start twice on the grass when as a juvenile). If any trainer can do it Baffert can, but there are question marks.

6. Hello Broadway (50-1) – Barclay Tagg, of Funny Cide fame, is the trainer of this son of Broken Vow. Making his first start since early November Hello Broadway ran a good second to the #2 horse on this list. Tagg is another member of the old school of training, and I like that each race will be a bit further until May. He’s got the breeding for the Derby distance and his trainer has been in the Winner’s Circle before; this half brother to Nobiz Like Showbiz is one to watch.

7. Desert Party (5-2 as part of the all others field) – The second Goldolphin entry on this list, this son of Street Cry won the UAE 2000 Guineas by 4 1/2 lengths earlier today. A $2.1 million purchase before he had made a start as a 2 year old, he was trained by Eoin Harty for Darley Stables in the U.S. last year before being transfered to bin Suroor in Dubai this winter. He has now beaten Vineyard Haven (see #10 below) twice in 3 starts (splitting a pair of meetings at Saratoga last fall), and has to be considered a big threat if the Godolphin horses come in force.

8. Patena (20-1) – IEAH Stables and Rick Dutrow just purchased a majority interest in this colt after he ran 2nd to Friesan Fire in the Lecomte Stakes at the Fair Grounds. Bred for distance, this son of Seeking the Gold has Dutrow & company over the moon since the Lecomte was his first start on a dirt track and he easily posted a career best Beyer figure. Dutrow may not be likable, but he proved last year he knows how to at least win the Derby.

9. Stardom Bound (12-1) – The lone filly one the list, she was purchased by IEAH Stables (of Big Brown fame) at auction last November after winning the Breeders Cup Juvenile Filly for $5.7 million. Now trained by Bobby Frankel, there is a strong chance of her making her next stop in the Santa Anita Derby and bypassing the Santa Anita Oaks altogether. Her Beyer numbers are a little below the boys, but her wins have been so easy she hasn’t been extended yet so I take the numbers with a grain of salt.

10. Vineyard Haven (12-1) – This son of Lido Palace was my #2 horse until today’s fourth place finish in the UAE 2000 Guineas. It was his first start since early October, and for a new trainer halfway around the world at that, so I’m going to throw this race out if he responds well later in the Dubai Festival of Racing and ships in. Saeed bin Suroor said before the race Vineyard wasn’t ready for a top effort going into the race, but it was a disappontment none the less. Bobby Frankel owned and trained his colt last season, but sold him to Goldolphin for a rumored $12 million after his Champagne Stakes win last fall.

11. Poltergeist (5-2 – field) – This so of Tapit was an impressive winner in an allowance/optional claiming race at Oaklawn Park last out. Trained by Donnie Von Hemel he is starting Monday in the Southwest Stakes at the Arkansas track. If he can handle the step up in class, this colt will be an interesting one to follow the rest of the spring as Hot Springs seems to have turned into a very solid Derby Pipeline.

12. Papa Clem (20-1) – This son of back-to-back Leading Sire Smart Strike (Curlin’s papa) ran a strong 2nd to Pioneerof the Nile in the Robert B. Lewis at Santa Anita in his stakes debut last out, pressing the pace and holding on well. He may head for the Louisiana Derby next to get not only dirt exeprience, but graded earings as well.

Four knocking on the door: Giant Oak, I Want Revenge, Theregoesjojo and Shafted.