The magic number is 52.3. That's the percentage of winning bets you need to beat the house edge and make money as a sports bettor. After another really strong week (8-2), I've bumped my percentage up to 59 percent for the season and am hoping to make a run at getting over 60 percent.
At this point in the season, it's a little harder to exploit gaps in information -- for most teams outside of the ACC both the linemakers and the bettors know what the good teams and bad teams are and the lines now reflect this. (For example, I was down on Washington State from the get-go this season and was rewarded with some really easy wins, but the Cougars are not sneaking up on anyone (so to speak) at this point.
But that doesn't mean there aren't strategies to be employed. I'm not a big fan of teaser bets, but they become a better option later in the season since the lines are often locked in really well (especially for the defensively strong conferences like the SEC and ACC). You can also look for teams which might be overvalued (Tulsa, Northwestern) or undervalued because of their records and the competition they've faced.
This week should be an exciting week as six of the top 13 teams in the country all face off. (And yes...for those of you keeping score at home I picked 10 road teams this week. Just a coincidence.)
Top Games
Oklahoma State (+13) at Texas -- It's hard to bet against the Longhorns, especially since they've hung two losses on me in two consecutive weeks, but I have to stick to my guns when I declared the Cowboys a sleeper team at the beginning of the season. An OSU win would surprise me, but I think it can keep it to within a couple of touchdowns, especially since the Cowboys have one of the few functional defenses in the Big 12.
Penn State (-2.5) at Ohio State -- I should have my head examined betting against Ohio State in Columbus, especially given that the Buckeyes have won 19 of their last 20 Big Ten games, but I think the Nittany Lions are for real and will give Terrell Pryor fits.
Georgia (+2) at LSU -- A case could be made that LSU is the most overrated team in the country. It somehow managed to only put up 41 points on a North Texas team that everyone else is hanging 70 on. Close victories over Mississippi State and Auburn also give me pause. I think the Bulldogs win this one comfortably.
Texas Tech (+2) at Kansas -- This game is nothing less than a referendum on whether or not the Red Raiders will ever be able to put together a great season. A loss to Kansas and it is likely they'll lose four straight and be headed to a second-tier bowl again. I think they'll get it done against an uninspiring Jayhawk team this week though.
USC (-16) at Arizona -- Which Wildcat team will show up -- the one that upset Cal or the one that lost to Stanford and New Mexico? I'm not sure it matters.
Best Bets
Duke (+10) at Vanderbilt -- I've heard a few clever names for this game like the Egghead Bowl, but it is hard not to be impressed at the performance of both of these schools this season, despite their focus on academics. I like Duke and the points in this one since Vandy has a history of flaming out with bowl bids on the line. Betting Duke for the upset on the money line wouldn't be the worst bet in the world either.
Rice (+2) at Tulane -- I'm not certain at all why a Tulane team that squeaked by SMU and got stomped by Army would be favored against a very underrated Rice team. Rice's three losses this season are to teams that are a combined 19-2 (Vanderbilt, Texas and Tulsa).
Fresno State (-16) at Utah State -- I don't think there's any question Fresno State was overrated coming into the season, but with the bye week behind them, the Bulldogs will make a push towards the WAC crown. They still are the best chance to ruin Boise State's BCS hopes this year.
Michigan State (-4) at Michigan -- This is going to be Michigan State's best chance to exact some revenge on its big brother in a long time and I think they'll take it. If the Spartans can't win this one this year, they might not beat the Wolverines for another six years.
Central Florida (+24) at Tulsa -- Regular readers of this column know I love me some Tulsa, but I'm starting to think the rest of the world is coming around to the Golden Hurricane bandwagon. UCF is not a great team, but they're not a weak sister either and this is a boatload of points. Tulsa's offense might get "slowed down" to the tune of 35 or 38 points, but that should still allow the Golden Knights to beat this number.
Last Week
8-2 last week, 46-32-3 overall
Top Games
4-1 last week, 24-14-2 overall
Best Bets
4-1 last week, 21-18-1 overall
Actual Bets
0-0 last week, 10-12-1 overall, -$63