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My first–and possibly only–2009 NBA Mock Draft, Lottery Edition.

(As I type this, the top non-centerpiece headline on SI.com is “Shaq applauds Kobe on Twitter.” *sigh*)

1. Los Angeles Clippers — Blake Griffin: Next!

2. Memphis Grizzlies — Hasheem Thabeet: Because Bengal can’t read this because he doesn’t have power, and I really think that Rubio is going to boycott Memphis. However, I do think that there’s a very good chance that someone will trade up with Memphis and use this pick to draft Rubio. But there are no trades in my mock draft.

3. Oklahoma City — Ricky Rubio: Too bad the Thunder didn’t get the top pick, because a Durant-Green-Griffin-Westbrook foursome would be the best team in the NBA in two years. But Rubio isn’t a bad pick either, especially if they can trade the rights to him or Westbrook for someone who can play down low. I could see a package of Rubio for DeRozan and someone else on draft day.

4. Sacramento Kings — Tyreke Evans: The Kings get a point guard to complement Kevin Martin even though Evans is a pass-third point guard. But the Kings aren’t going to win any time soon and there are plenty of shots to go around, so Evans and Martin wil be able to get tons of opportunities.

5. Washington Wizards — Jordan Hill: I think the best opportunity for the Wizards is to trade for Josh Howard and get out of this spot, but at the same time, that would end up clogging the perimeter and force Antawn Jamison to be a full time 4. But if the Wizards truly are hellbent on winning 120-115 every game, that may be the best idea.

6. Minnesota Timberwolves — Brandon Jennings: I’m going to go out on a limb with this one and assume that the Wolves believe that Sebastian Telfair is nothing more than a PG. This would allow Randy Foye to move to the 2, with Ryan Gomes at the 3 and Kevin Love and Al Jefferson in the frontcourt.

7. Golden State Warriors — James Harden: Apparently one GM said that Harden was just like Paul Pierce. If that’s true, this is a steal at #7 for the Warriors. Harden will fit nicely in Don Nelson’s scheme, especially if he can fine tune his outside jumper.

8. New York Knicks — Stephen Curry: No, I didn’t rig the mock draft so that Curry went here. I seriously considered Curry to the Warriors, but decided to give them Harden because he was still on the board. I’m not completely convinced that Curry will be here at #8 for the Knicks to take.

9. Toronto Raptors — Jonny Flynn: If Curry goes before #8, Flynn will be the Knicks’ pick, but if he falls past them, the Raptors will be glad to have him. He’ll start backing up Jose Calderon and could have the starting position by the All-Star break.

10. Milwaukee Bucks — Jrue Holliday: The Bucks will need a PG too if Ramon Sessions leaves, so they’ll take the best remaining PG. If Holliday, Flynn and Curry are all gone, who knows who they will choose.

11. New Jersey Nets — DeMar DeRozan: I wonder what the Nets could get if they flipped Vince Carter to a contender? A DeRozan/Harris/Lopez nucleus isn’t shabby at all.

12. Charlotte Bobcats — Gerald Henderson: This is as predictable as Curry to the Knicks.

13. Indiana Pacers — Austin Daye: This is way to high for Daye, who’s a poor man’s Kevin Durant in the exact same frame. This will scare the crap out of Pacer fans who are going to think of Jonathan Bender.

14. Phoenix Suns — Eric Maynor: Maynor will be a great replacement for Steve Nash in a couple of years and allow Leandro Barbosa to move full time to the 2. Of course, this assumes that the Suns won’t trade Maynor for a second round draft pick or cash considerations.

It was DraftExpress that had the initial report that likely second overall pick Rubio would be in “fuck no” mode when it came to the notion of playing in Memphis. And the Memphis Commercial Appeal writers then went into push back mode on behalf of the Grizzlies, calling such reports premature and not necessarily true. Well, DraftExpress has this up in response. It’s called reporting. And it makes me sad. Again. From DraftExpress:

From what we can gather, Rubio is most certainly going to want to have a large say in the team that drafts him, and if he’s not satisfied with where he lands, he may just decide not to ever come over, which would obviously be a huge embarrassment for the team that picks him. He is in a great situation with his hometown team outside of Barcelona, and it wouldn’t make sense to leave there for anything less than the perfect spot from his standpoint.

“The bottom line here is that Ricky has a large buyout—5.75 million Euros, both for this year and the year after. Depending on the team that selects him, he’s going to make a decision on whether he comes over or not. If he’s not satisfied, there is a very real possibility that he doesn’t come. His buyout is going to cost him a lot of money, and if it doesn’t make sense for him, he won’t do it. He is going to have to pay for the privilege of playing in the NBA”

According to the source, Rubio’s decision is going to come down to two things: winning and the role he’ll play for the team that picks him. The size of the market of the team that drafts him is apparently irrelevant, since his appeal will be on a global scale, reaching far past his team’s city limits.

With that in mind, it appears that the Memphis Grizzlies will have to make a very strong sales pitch to Rubio for him to move off his initial stance of not wanting to play for them. Rubio’s concerns stem from a number of factors, ranging from the potential poor fit of playing alongside a very ball-dominant guard in O.J. Mayo, to the negative experiences conveyed to him by the likes of Juan Carlos Navarro and Pau Gasol.

What part of that sounds like good news for the Grizzlies? None part of that. None. Not one bit. At the least, Hasheem Thabeet can apprentice in the NBA in relative peace. Fuck.

So much for leverage with the second pick:

“Rubio doesn’t want to go to Memphis, and he especially does not want to pay money out of his own pocket with that huge buyout for the honor of doing so. Fegan [Rubio’s agent] wants him in L.A., and if he can’t have him there, he wants him in Sacramento. Definitely not Oklahoma City. “

Unlike Griffin or Hasheem Thabeet, who don’t really have any choice where they will play next season if a team decides to play hardball, Rubio has a reasonably attractive alternative option at his disposal—returning to Spain.

“He’ll pull out if he doesn’t like what he’s hearing,” the NBA source tells us. “Or he can stay in and force the Grizzlies to call his bluff—would they really take him knowing that he may never come over? That’s one way to get him to fall to three.”

Add in that Chad Ford is defending his assigning Hasheem Thabeet to Memphis by saying that his NBA source is close to Grizzlies owner and general bastard Mike Heisley and it is HEISLEY who is wanting Thabeet, over the objections of his entire front office, and, well, fuck.

I wish I could properly convey to you all the abject hopelessness and despair that is being a Memphis Grizzlies fan. I don’t know how to properly frame the infinite chasm of darkness that is that particular lot in life. Suffice it to say, it’s not a good thing. Nothing is ever good news. Ever. There’s always a twist that reveals the brief glimmer of hope to instead be wrapped in and infused with raw sewage.

The chattering class has weighed in with their first knee-jerk guesses on how the NBA draft may shape up next month. There is also a ton of chatter in the Swamp already, driven in no small part by my pushback against the notion that Hasheem Thabeet is or should be Memphis bound. Nooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooo. That would be no. No Thabeet. No. Hey, Chad Ford? Eff you. No. The Grizzlies have a young center who is making a difference. Marc Gasol. He is serviceable. And serviceable appears to be Thabeet’s upside. Someone else can have that. Not Memphis. That said, the mocks:

—Ian Thomson at si.com (gives Spanish wunder-guard Ricky Rubio to the Grizzlies…I approve)

—Chad Ford at espn.com (and his aforementioned “NBA source” bullshit on the Grizzlies and Thabeet)

—NBAdraft.net on foxsports.com limits their guesses to the first 14 (guessed Rubio to the Grizzlies…and then a deal. I could live with that. No Thabeet).

One month for this to sort itself out. Really, after the NBA playoffs finally end, only about a week and a half or so for rumors and dealing when all is said and done.

Blake Griffin. Within an inch. Or, in this case, 2000 miles.

The Clippers, the CLIPPERS, luck into the one sure thing in this draft. And David Stern has lucked into a blow to the perception that this thing is fixed. Or, has fixed it to look like a blow to the notion that this thing is fixed. Because the Clippers and Grizzlies at 1 and 2 are the anti-fix teams.

I am betting he fixed it…

Fleeting hopes in Memphis this morning that LA might be unstable enough to deal the pick. If so, Memphis has the picks and cap flexibility to make a run at it. More likely, Memphis is looking at the Griffin runner-up prize. And let me be the first of the four remaining Grizzlies fans to say:

Fuck no, to Hasheem Thabeet.

Give me Ricky Rubio. Deal Mike Conley. Sign Paul Millsap. Move on with life. But if they think they can pass off the project that is Thabeet, on a team that already has a more than serviceable NBA center in Marc Gasol, then the franchise will end up with no remaining Grizzlies fans. And can start making its relocation plans for Las Vegas, Seattle, or wherever their next stop is.

Interesting. Early rumors that the Knicks have their hearts set NOT on Blake Griffin, who I have assumed would be the perfect four for a Mike Dantoni system, but rather Spanish wonder-guard Ricky Rubio. Who, actually, would probably be a perfect one for a Dantoni system.

Point is, IF the Knicks (ha, like there’s a question as to this) somehow lottery leap into the top spot, there is a chance that it won’t be Blake Griffin coming off the board first.

Actually, that gives Stern a nice target, manuever the top two picks to Oklahoma City and New York, letting Griffin go to his home state team and allowing Dantoni to get the high test octane he wants for his style of play. In this scenario, everyone else gets a rock. Have you looked at the draft pool this year? Yuck.

Lottery day is Tuesday. I can tell you, around Memphis, we have long since learned not to hold our collective breath…

Gilbert Arenas, g-d bless him, is back. 15 points. 10 assists. And damn near got Washington a win over Detroit, the Wizards falling short 98 – 96. In fact, Arenas had a shot to tie or win the game. Course, the kind of time away that Arenas has been through this year is bound to leave a player, even of Arenas’ skills, rusty. And I would point to the fact that Kwame Brown, of all people, blocked Arenas’ shot at the end as proof of that.

Ouch.

Still, for Grizzlies fans, this is a big deal. Yes, Grizzlies fans. The four of us. And Clippers fan. Their six. Them too. We all like the cut of Arenas’ and Washington’s gib in getting him back for the last few weeks of the season. In the, um, “race” for best odds at Blake Griffin (and right to be most aggrieved when Phoenix “magically” gets the winning ball), it currently shows:

Sacramento 15 – 56
Washington 17 – 57
LA Clippers 18 – 56
Memphis 18 – 54
Minnesota 20 – 53
Oklahoma City 20 – 52

So, yeah, welcome back, Agent Zero. May you find your shot as fast as is possible. That would be swell. A little chatter about the return of Arenas in the Swamp courtesy of front page contributor and all-time Swamper DSafe.

Blake Griffin is going to be an All-Star candidate on a yearly basis in the NBA. He looks 20/10 waking up out of bed each morning. His ability to run the floor I had under-estimated. Syracuse’s outstanding guard Jonny Flynn is certainly sold.

The Memphis Grizzlies are a bad basketball team. But they do have a couple of pieces in place. One of those pieces is NOT a power forward. Blake Griffin running around FedExForum last night was like having a glass of cold water held in front of a person dying of thirst.

It’s gonna suck watching him come into the Forum every year after David Stern assigns Griffin to the Suns in this year’s lottery “upset”.

I linked about a month ago a really entertaining read from Seth Davis wherein he ran his annual column with his synthesis of various NBA scouts’ opinions of various college players. Bronto has posted in the Swamp the LA Times’ rundown of what appear to be the top 30 for this summer’s draft. From that piece, their top 10:

1 Blake Griffin, 6-10, 252, Soph., Oklahoma — Powerful, explosive, the one sure bet.

2 Ricky Rubio, 6-3, 180, Joventut Badalona, Spain — “Spanish Pete Maravich” and dead ringer, facially. Great length, big-time playmaker, even defends, but can’t shoot yet.

3 Jordan Hill, 6-10, 235, Jr., Arizona — Major athlete, still making strides.

4 Ed Davis, 6-9, 225, Fr., North Carolina — No one talks about him now, which, as one GM said, “is how Roy Williams wants it.”

5 Hasheem Thabeet, 7-3, 265, Jr., Connecticut — Pros, who rolled their eyes for years, have noticed he’s improving, however slowly, and, oh, yes, still huge.

6 James Harden, 6-5, 218, Soph., Arizona State — Not athletic, but big, skilled with great feel.

7 Jeff Teague, 6-2, 175, Soph., Wake Forest — Great athlete, deadeye shot. Skeptics say he’s a pint-sized shooting guard. Admirers think he can handle point in a structured system.

8 Greg Monroe, 6-10, 234, Fr., Georgetown — Skilled high-post player, but defers and/or coasts.

9 Willie Warren, 6-3, 207, Fr., Oklahoma — Admirers see better Rodney Stuckey, or another Eric Gordon.

10 Al-Farouq Aminu, 6-9, 215, Fr., Wake Forest — Admirers see Tyrus Thomas, with a head.

Regarding the #1 on that list, I agree that Griffin is the best bet. But he is not a sure bet. Not with a head that appears to be ringable.

Chatter will be unfolding in the Swamp over this list (and Davis’) and others as the summer approaches the the NBA draft draws closer. Drop by, if you wish, with a thought or two.