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(In one great post by Bensell. Here he is…)

Here’s my long awaited 135th Kentucky Derby Preview – and that’s about  the amount of times I’ve changed my mind during the writing process. The one thing I do know is the best 3 year old in the country will not be entering the starting gate tomorrow at 6:24 EDT, since Rachel Alexandra won the Kentucky Oaks on Friday afternoon by over 20 lengths. This filly has the looks of becoming a huge superstar, yet she is not even nominated to the Triple Crown since her owner does not believe in running fillies against colts. You may hear talk of her running in the Preakness Stakes in two weeks, but I’ll be stunned if her owner puts up the $100,000 needed to enter her in either of the last two Triple Crown races. I was far from the only one to think she was the best 3 year old before the Oaks, and now I’m sure I’m not the only one thinking she may be the best horse in training of any age. That said – here’s how I see the field starting with the most likely winners first (Friday night odds in parenthesis):

#6 FRIESAN FIRE (9-2) – Larry Jones is back after the running second in the last 2 Derbys, including the ill-fated Eight Belles last year. He has announced he is going to retire at the end of the year to spend more time with his family, and he has his best chance to win the Derby with this son of A. P. Indy. He has won his last 3 races, including the Louisiana Derby last out, and if the track comes up sloppy tomorrow it just adds to his chances.

#19 DESERT PARTY (24-1) – The UAE Derby runner up ran his best race in the U.S. on an off track as a 2 year old, and he is the best shot the powerful Godolphin Stable has sent to Louisville yet. This colt by Street Cry beat his stable mate Regal Ransom 2 out of 3 times in Dubai over the winter, with his only loss by a half length last out. He has been training very sharp over the Churchill Downs strip, and has the stalking style that works well in a large field.

#16 PIONEEROF THE NILE (9-1) – Unbeaten in 4 starts since being switched to Bob Baffert’s barn in December, the main question about this son of Empire Maker is the fact he has never run on dirt (6 of his 8 starts have come on the Synthetic tracks, the other 2 on Turf). He has seemed to take to the track well in the 2 weeks he has been in Louisville, and if anyone knows how take a horse into the Derby at the peak of fitness it is Baffert. This colt would be my top pick if any of his prior wins (or even a good effort) had been on the dirt.

#15 DUNKIRK (8-1) – This Unbridled’s Song colt was the highest price  yearing sold at auction in 2007 ($3.7 million) when the powerful Coolmore Stable outbid the Maktoum’s at the Keeneland September Sale. He ran a nice race when finishing second to the quarter crack plagued Quality Road last out in the Florida Derby, but it was only his third career start. The Todd Pletcher trainee’s biggest weakness is that inexperience – the last horse to win the Derby without a start as a 2 year old was Apollo in 1882.

#10 REGAL RANSOM (33-1) – The “lesser” half of the Godolphin entry is coming off a front running win in the UAE Derby 5 weeks ago. He posted one of the best debut Beyers in his win at Saratoga last fall, and the son of Distorted Humor has a nice stamina base from his female side. I can see a scenario where this colt gets lose on the lead ala War Emblem earlier this decade.

#7 PAPA CLEM (13-1) – The Arkansas Derby winner has knocked heads with some of the best horses on the West Coast before coming east for his last 2 races. Friesan Fire beat him by over 7 lengths in the Louisiana Derby, but he may have not liked the sloppy track. That may be bad news as rain is heavily in the forecast for tomorrow, or it could have just been a case of him needing to adjust to the dirt from the synthetic tracks in California.

#13 I WANT REVENGE (6-1) – Since coming East for the Gotham Stakes this colt has come into his own. My only question is about the level competition he has been facing at Aqueduct. Jeff Mullins has been getting plenty of grief, and rightly so, for violating the rules on the day this son of Stephen Got Even won the Wood Memorial (after a terrible start in what may have been one of the best prep performances of the year). But I have to wonder if the colt will “bounce” off such an effort and/or if the criticism is taking a toll of the notoriously ill-tempered trainer. His rider Joe Talamo is the 19 year old star of the Animal Planet’s show “Jockeys” which was just renewed for a second season – guess who the Discovery Channel is rooting for… (Ed’s note: I Want Revenge was scratched this morning with a hot spot on his left front ankle. Of course, if you were listening to Bensell in the first place, you’d have bet six other horses before IWR. — Bronto)

#5 HOLD ME BACK (11-1) – Bill Mott may have lost Pioneerof the Nile to Bob Baffert over the winter, but he comes in with a very live shot with this Giant’s Causeway colt. He has run twice this year, winning the Lanes End and finishing second last out in the Bluegrass Stakes. His main knock may be that he finished up the track in his only start on the dirt last November in the Remsen Stakes. Mott put him away after that poor effort and he has come back looking impressive – his jockey Kent Desormeaux is the only rider in this year’s edition that has won the Derby more than once (he has 3 wins, including Big Brown last year).

#9 CHOCOLATE CANDY (9-1) – I feel like the West Coast horses are a bit better than their Eastern counterparts (or at least the ones that made it to the gate in Louisville) this year. This Candy Ride colt has been on a decided up swing lately, running second to Pioneerof the Nile last out after winning 2 in a row in Northern California. I think the Santa Anita Derby may well turn out to be the best of the preps, and will probably regret having this colt so low my list.

#12 GENERAL QUARTERS (5-1) – The feel good story of this year’s Derby, this colt is owned and trained by a retired principal from Louisville. In the fall of 2007 Tom McCarthy had his last horse claimed from his stable so he went to the September Sales at Keeneland to buy a horse to restock. He had his eye on 2 – this Sky Mesa colt sold first with McCarthy dropping out of the bidding before he sold for $20,000. Six months later the horse is making his debut in a maiden claiming race and McCarthy gets the colt for $20,000 after winning a 4 way shake for the claim. Ten races later the colt is a Grade One winner, giving his owner the time of his life. The colt seems to be peaking but whether that can get him a win tomorrow seems unlikely – combine that with the low odds and I’m leaving this colt out of most my wagers.

#3 MR. HOT STUFF (33-1) – This full brother to last year’s Travers winner Colonel John seems to be learning something with every race. It took him 5 tries to break his maiden, but he has since run 2 nice thirds to The Pamplemouse and Pioneerof the Nile out West. I think he will only get better as he gets race experience, but that doesn’t bode well for his Derby chances.

#2 MUSKET MAN (26-1) – If it wasn’t for his sprint breeding, I’d have this son of Yonaguska much higher on the list. He’s won 5 of 6 starts, including the 1 1/8 Illinois Derby, but I can’t shake the feeling he nothing more than a miler.

#4 ADVICE (50-1) – One of 3 Todd Pletcher trained entries, this colt is coming off a win 2 weeks ago in the Lexington Stakes. He didn’t seem to like the dirt the one time he ran on it in the Sunland Derby, but the Todd has got to break his 0-fer Derby streak at some point – he has the record with 21 starters without a win.

#1 WEST SIDE BERNIE (47-1) – He was the runner up to I Want Revenge in the Wood Memorial after going wide. There was no way he anything but second best that day, and I don’t think he can improve much off that outing.

#17 SUMMER BIRD (35-1) – This son of Belmont Stakes winning Birdstone closed for third in the Arkansas Derby after a slow start. He only made his debut in March and with his come from behind style I find it impossible to think that he can be a factor in a 20 horse field. I’m shocked the connections didn’t wait for the Belmont, but we may well see him in New York no matter where he finishes in the Derby.

#18 NOWHERE TO HIDE (52-1) – The Nick Zito trainee has ran 4th in all 3 of his starts in stakes races. I don’t see him finishing anywhere that high tomorrow.

#20 FLYING PRIVATE (37-1) – It wouldn’t be a Kentucky Derby without D. Wayne Lukas and unfortunately he brings another overmatched colt to the race. Thoroughbred racing is better when Lukas is thriving – here’s hoping he gets another great horse before he finally retires.

#14 ATOMIC RAIN (68-1) – He’s coming off a 4th place finish in the Wood Memorial, but he seems much better to sprinting to me. I would be stunned if he’s anywhere near to the top of the field.

#9 JOIN IN THE DANCE (57-1) – This Sky Mesa colt may be a speed factor, but I don’t see the 3rd Pletcher entry as a factor.

#8 MINE THAT BIRD (47-1) – This Birdstone colt ran his last 2 races at Sunland Park, with medicore speed figures. Another nonfactor.

I’ll post some of my actual bets in The Swamp, but be assured that I’ll be keying Friesan Fire, Desert Party and Pioneerof the Nile in my bets. Good luck to all that place a wager on my state’s biggest event.