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Via Swamp All-Timer Bensell:

This week is pretty much a workout only week for Derby contenders (sorry Turf Paradise Derby entrants, but I doubt we’ll see any of you lot in the starting gate come May 2nd). Here’s my updated Top Twenty, with final odds from the first Kentucky Derby Future Wager pool (that closed on February 15th) and last week’s ranking (also eligible designates a spot on the previous “four to watch list,” which has been eliminated and replaced with an expanded list to make it an even twenty on the Watch List):

1. Old Fashioned (7-1) (1)
2. Capt. Candyman Can (25-1) (2)
3. Pioneerof the Nile (13-1) (5)
4. Friesan Fire (18-1) (4)
5. Hello Broadway (30-1) (6)
6. Desert Party (Field – 9-5) (7)
7. Midshipman (19-1) (3)
8. Giant Oak (24-1) (AE)
9. Stardom Bound (22-1) (9)
10. Patena (22-1) (8)
11. Papa Clem (44-1) (12)
12. Flying Pegasus (28-1) (NR)
13. Beethoven (31-1) (NR)
14. Imperial Council (Field – 9-5) (NR)
15. General Quarters (Field – 9-5) (NR)
16. I Want Revenge (54-1) (AE)
17. Theregoesjojo (Field – 9-5) (AE)
18. The Pamplemousse (29-1) (NR)
19. Silver City (35-1) (NR)
20. Taqarub (46-1) (NR)

Old Fashioned won his season debut at Oaklawn on Monday in the Southwest Stakes, beating Silver City among other challengers. I moved Midshipman down mainly because his workout tab hasn’t been a bit sparse from Dubai and it seems that his first start is still undecided, though all indications are that he will be ready for the UAE Derby come March 28th where he should meet his stablemates Desert Party & Vineyard Haven.

Giant Oak moves up off reviewing the Risen Star Stakes replay several times this week – it is almost impossible to have a worse trip than this colt had when he finished 5th to Friesan Fire and company. He’s the “now” horse that all of the wise guys love, but I love his breeding and look forward to his next outing in either the Rebel Stakes or Louisiana Derby. Flying Pegasus moves into the Top 12 off his second in the Risen Star, his seasonal debut. I’m not convinced he wants a mile and a quarter, but his sire (Fusaichi Pegasus) did win the Roses in 2000 so he can’t be completely dismissed as a sprinter.

Of the 5 horses that didn’t make my original sixteen, the two most intriguing are Imperial Council and Beethoven. The former is trained by Shug McGaughey who ran 2nd in the Derby back in 1989 with Easy Goer and who is one of the most respected conditoners in the business. John Ward trains Beethoven and he has previously been in the promised land with Monarchos’ win in 2001.

Next week brings the Sham Stakes at Santa Anita and the Fountain of Youth at Gulfstream Park, along with 2 minor preps at Turfway Park and Sunland Park, and at least a fifth of my Top Twenty will be in action. Probables for the Sham include I Want Revenge and The Pamplemousse, while the Fountain of Youth is expected to draw Capt. Candyman Can, Beethoven, This Ones for Phil and Notonthesamepage among others.

Next week I will start making picks for all of the (major) prep races being run, so you can get a handle on how good (or bad) my handicapping is leading up to the Derby. Until then, may all of your julips be mint.