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If Chuck Norris could pitch, the Rangers would be in good shape. But Chuck would underperform in his first couple years as a Ranger (or show enough to be traded) and would then be great for the team that he goes to next.

The Rangers’ inability to find–and keep–a young pitcher must be maddening for Rangers fans. Edinson Volquez? Traded; albeit for Josh Hamilton. John Danks? Traded for Brandon McCarthy, who lost that highly regarded status once he started pitching at the Ballpark in Arlington. Chris Young? Traded with Adrian Gonzalez for Adam Eaton and Akinori Otsuka. Armando Galarraga? Traded for a minor leaguer.

But hey, at least the Rangers can hit, right?

C: With the departure of Gerald Laird, it looks like the time is now for Jarrod Saltalamacchia to live up to the promise he showed to make the Rangers demand his inclusion in the return package for Mark Teixeira. Salty hasn’t been *horrible* and is only 24, but his performance certainly has been underwhelming. He was hurt for a lot of last year, and managed only 230 PAs. Look for Saltalamacchia to get 400 ABs this year, while Taylor Teagarden takes the other 200.

1B: A converted third baseman, Chris Davis won’t come close to replacing Mark Teixeira in the AVG or OBP categories. But he’ll come damn close (and may even surpass) Tex in the power department. Davis hit 17 HR in just 317 PAs and slugged .549. PECOTA projects him with 29 HR in 574 PAs, but posting just a .259/.312/.490 line.

2B: When healthy, Ian Kinsler is the best second baseman in the American League, that midget in Boston be damned. He’s just never going to be in the MVP consideration as long as the Rangers have their current pitching staff. Kinsler has just 1500 PAs in the last three seasons, but has hit 52 homeruns and has emerged as a stolen base threat as well. However, according to BP, Kinsler was -10 in runs defensively in 2008.

3B: The left side of the infield will be the Rangers’ weakness in 2009. Michael Young slides over to the hot corner to make room for Elvis Andrus, but if you were expecting a 2006 Michael Young, you’re in for a huge disappointment. He’s 32 and on the decline, doesn’t walk much, and has an albatross of a contract. His power is all but zapped, and while he’ll be an above average defender at third, PECOTA only projects him for a .279/.334/.393 season at the plate.

SS: Elvis Andrus will be known in the near future as the guy who replaced Michael Young, and for Rangers fans expecting him to duplicate the production that they became accustomed to from Young in the middle part of the decade, they’re going to be sorely disappointed. Sure, Andrus is only 20, but he needs to learn how to take a walk and hit a homer. PECOTA says to expect a line of .249/.299/.332 while his errors make him a wash in the field.

OF: Everything that can be said about Josh Hamilton has been said, so there’s no point dwelling on Hamilton. Except that it’s interesting to note that PECOTA projects a 20 point AVG drop (walk rate remaining stable) and a 50 point SLG drop. But Hamilton was so good last year, that the 2009 projection still remains in the upper tier of outfielders. It’s hard to believe that Nelson Cruz is 28, but he’s been bouncing between Dallas and Oklahoma City for the past three years. Cruz smashed 44 homers in just 581 PAs in OKC and Dallas, posting a 1.000+ OPS at both places. While pitchers are bound to figure him out over the course of a full season, he’s still going to be a decent corner outfield option for a couple of years. David Murphy is the outfield’s weak link, as his power isn’t anywhere close to that of Hamilton or Cruz’s, his 15 HR outburst in 2008 notwithstanding. In all likelihood, Murphy will take the share of LF ABs against righties, while Marlon Byrd slots in against lefthanders.

DH: Hank Blalock and Frank Catalanotto are a bit of a downgrade from Milton Bradley’s 2008. Juuuuuust slightly. If one of them was righthanded, they’d have themselves a nice little platoon. However, both are going to be vulnerable to lefties, and whatever edge Catalanotto has over Blalock in the OBP department, Blalock makes up with his power.

SP: Here’s where things get really fun for the Rangers. Kevin Millwood is an ace only because of his past performances, because his last two seasons of a 1.60 WHIP aren’t worthy of being a fifth starter. But this is Texas, so he’s the #1. Vicente Padilla is the #2, and Texas can only hope that they get some sort of contract year bounce from both Millwood and Padilla. Scott Feldman projects as the #3, and PECOTA doesn’t like him either. McCarthy has the best PECOTA projection of the Rangers top four at a sub 1.50 WHIP (barely) and a 5.04 ERA and he’s the #4. The fifth starter position is up for grabs between Matt Harrison, the skeleton of Jason Jennings and Dustin Nippert.

RP: The bullpen is going to be better than the rotation, but that’s like saying puking is better than explosive diarrhea. Chair-beater Frank Francisco is the frontrunner to be the closer over CJ Wilson, who got 24 saves despite a 1.64 WHIP and 6.03 ERA. Suck it, K-Rod. The middle part of the pen is a bunch of reclamation projects, including Brendan Donnelly, Derrick Turnbow and Eddie Guardado, and Kason Gabbard has a shot to be the long man in the pen, which could equal about 150 IP.

In 100 Words Or Less: The Rangers are going to be worse than last year because they’re going to give up as many–if not more–runs and score fewer. If the Rangers had even league average pitching, they’d contend for the AL West title, but instead they’re doomed to third or fourth, depending on how Seattle performs.

Doug Melvin’s gamble to make one run at the World Series in 2008 was a wise one. The NL was wide open, and a 1 – 2 punch of CC Sabathia and Ben Sheets was arguably the best top of the rotation in the league. Add in hitters like Prince Fielder and Ryan Braun, and what’s not to like?

Well, even the best bets lose, and sure enough, that’s what happened to Melvin. Like clockwork, Sheets got hurt, and the Brewers imploded over the final month despite some dazzling performances from CC Sabathia on short rest. So what’s in store for 2009?

C: Jason Kendall’s back? Are you f*(king kidding me? He can’t hit and can’t run, so therefore he must have Varitek-esque leadership abilities, right? But Jason Varitek wouldn’t have let his team collapse down the stretch! After a horrid 2007 throwing out baserunners, Kendall actually nailed 43% of all attempted basestealers in 2008. At $4.6 million for 2009, he’s not as bad as he could be, but he’s definitely not one of the top 10 catchers in the National League.

1B: Prince Fielder’s here, and isn’t going anywhere until possibly after 2010 when the Brewers may not be able to afford him. However, Fielder’s SLG fell over 100 points from 2007, and his body-type isn’t exactly one that’s set up to hold up over the long haul. Still, you can pencil him in for over an .850 OPS, and there aren’t much better first basemen better than he is in the National League. Just don’t expect 50 homers every year.

2B: If Rickie Weeks could actually hit, he’d be a heckuva asset. Despite hitting just .234, he OBPed .342 last year, so a .280 average would mean almost a .400 OBP. Not bad at all. Weeks is only 26 and his defense turned around tremendously from 2007. The Brewers can only hope that his average is next.

3B: Bill Hall’s never going to repeat 2006, but the Brewers can keep hoping, right? After all, they rightfully viewed Ryan Braun’s defense to be too atrocious for third, so they replaced him with Hall, who hit .225/.293/.396 last year. But unless the Brewers want to move Braun back to third, their other option for the hot corner is Mike Alex Rodriguez Stole My Job Lamb.

SS: JJ Hardy took a step forward in 2008. PECOTA projects his production to stabilize because of a very low 15.5% line drive rate, making him susceptible to a BABIP slump. Hardy also shone in the field too, rating second in BP’s ultimate zone rating and third in plus/minus.

OF: Ryan Braun is set in left, despite having a bit of a down year. Don’t let the homer totals deceive you as those three more homers that he hit were in 170 more ABs, resulting in a 80 point SLG drop. And hey, his defense improved too, as he went from -36 at 3B in 2007 to -6 in LF in 2008. Where’s his Gold Glove? Mike Cameron’s $10 million option for 2009 looked good at the end of the season, but with the way the economy went over the offseason, it really doesn’t now. However, it wasn’t like there were any major free agent CFs out there, so it’s not like the Brewers royally screwed up. Cameron will continue to be Mike Cameron, with a high walk rate helping to obscure the low batting average accompanied by good power and good defense. Corey Hart was horrible in 2008, OBPing just .300 thanks to a dip in BA and a terrible walk rate. He’s entering his age 27 season, so a rebound should be expected if he can stop swinging at every pitch he sees.

SP: Yovani Gallardo would be a great ace if he didn’t get hurt. He flashed ace potential for four starts before tearing his ACL, and that was after he had meniscus trouble in the spring. If he can stay healthy, he’s going to be one o the frontline starters in 2009. The bright side is that those injuries have been to his knee, rather than a hip, elbow or shoulder. Behind Gallardo is where it gets messy. Dave Bush is not a #2 starter, but he’s here by default. Braden Looper pitched well for the Cardinals last year, but he shouldn’t sustain that success well enough to be a capable #3, and Jeff Suppan hasn’t done anything to justify the four year $48 million deal that the Brewers gave him. If Manny Parra can avoid injury from the IP increase in 2009, he could save the rotation. The Brewers are being cautious with him, and with good reason. At 26 and lefthanded with a mid 90s fastball, Parra is seen by many as a potential breakout candidate.

RP: Apparently the Brewers didn’t learn their lesson last year with Eric Gagne, so they went out this year and got Trevor Hoffman because he’s “a proven closer.” While Hoffman’s worst year in quite some time was last year, it was still only a 3.77 ERA, not terrible by any means. However, if his velocity declines to the point where his fastball isn’t effective as at least a show pitch, the Brewers are in big time trouble once again at the back end of their bullpen. David Riske Business got a three year $13 million deal from the Brewers after a great season with the Royals, and promptly barfed all over himself, posting a 5.32 ERA with a 1.70 WHIP. Sadly, the Brewers don’t have much else in the pen. Carlos Villanueva posted a nice season from the pen last year, and should become the primary setup man, but this is by far the weakness of the team.

In 100 words or less: Barring a collapse by the Cubs–entirely possible–the Brewers have no shot of winning the division. However given the relative mediocrity of the rest of the Central, they have a shot at second place. Fielder and Braun will have to have better seasons, and Parra or someone else will have to step up behind Gallardo–assuming he’s healthy all year. And that’s not even mentioning the bullpen’s needed improvement. That said, look for them to finish 3rd.

The A’s scored the fewest runs in the American League in 2008 and it’s easy to see why. Scoring just over 4 runs per game, Oakland was tied for worst in the AL in OBP at .318 with Seattle, and had far and away the worst SLG in the majors at .369, 20 points lower than the Mariners. But that blame lies with the A’s BA and not the walk rate. Oakland hit just .242 last season. And that is NOT ideal. Obviously, the A’s youth movement had a lot to do with it, but at the same time, this team was only four games out of first place on July 1. While Billy’s move for Matt Holliday may seem like a sign that he perceives the Angels to have a weakness, don’t underestimate the possibility of Holliday being traded at midseason, especially given the relative reasonability of the final half year of his deal. (On a related note, has anyone seen the rumors about a Moneyball movie? What was movie-quality about that book?)

C: Kurt Suzuki flat out ran out of gas in the second half of 2008, and with good reason. He played 148 games last year, and after getting hot in June and July, Suzuki went on a freefall in August and September, hitting .250/.343/.359 and .234/.322/.273 respectively. But at the same time, the A’s had no good options as 27-year-old backup catcher Rob Bowen hit .176/.219/.286 in 97 ABs. Ouch.

1B/DH: The gold thong is back! Giambi alone should help improve the team’s OBP immensely. Sure, he may not be able to hit more than .250 and lefties are completely out of the equation, but he’ll post a .360+ OBP and whack 20+ HRs among those hits in that .250 average. Daric Barton struggled in his first year being a starter, and since he’s also lefthanded, he’ll have to settle for playing first when Giambi DHs or gets the day off. Jack Cust will be the team’s primary DH, but he’s also lefthanded. While his AVG only declines 20 points and his walk rate remains the same, he SLGs 70 points lower against lefties, so Beane would be served well to find a righthanded bat or two to complement Giambi, Cust and Barton.

2B: Mark Ellis increased his walk rate 20 points in 2008, but hit 40 points lower, making the increase in free passes worthless. Ellis was also hurt for part of the year, and that may explain his paltry .373 SLG. However, he’s 32 and has played in less than 125 games in three of the last four years. Eric Patterson isn’t a viable alternative because his PECOTA projection is basically in line with Ellis’s, but with worse defense.

3B: It’s set with Eric Chavez. Well, at least for a few days until Chavez hurts his back. Chavez hobbled up to the plate just 95 times in 2008 and hit just .247/.295/.393 and he enters 2009 as a 31 year old with a bad back. Not good. His replacement at third, Jack Hannahan, hit even worse than Chavez did at .218/.305/.342. Oh boy!

SS: The corpse of Bobby Crosby’s back is still haunting the middle, and it isn’t pretty. (What is it with backs and the left side of Oakland’s infield?) Crosby can’t hit or play defense, and last I checked, they were the two basic requirements of a shortstop. I still think an Oakland-Orlando Cabrera pairing is likely, but it may not come until just before opening day, or possibly in June to avoid costing the A’s a draft pick.

OF: Here’s where Holliday comes in. He’s an upgrade defensively over the times when Cust attempted to play the outfield, and he’s a massive upgrade at the plate over It’s Not A Snack It’s Emil Brown. However, it’s really worth noting that while still a good player, Holliday is very much a product of Coors Field. Through his career, Holliday has hit .357/.423/.645 at Coors while .280/.348/.455 on the road. And it’s a well documented fact that McAfee Coliseum is a pitcher’s park, thus, Beane’s dilemma. Obviously Holliday has more value to a contender when he’s posting that Coors line half of the time but it’s not unreasonable to suggest that Holliday’s season line will be considerably closer to his career road split, limiting what Beane would get in return if he flipped him in midseason. The other two outfield spots seem to be Ryan Sweeney’s and Travis Buck’s. Sweeney was one of the few young A’s players to play well, even though he slugged just .383 while Buck couldn’t even crack a .300 OBP.

SP: At the front, the rotation is dependent on a repeat performance from Justin Duchscherer. However, if Vegas had odds on him repeating 2008 (and hell, they may) they’d be astronomical. He hardly touches 90–and is a righty–and doesn’t have a great K rate. Hardly the stuff of a guy with a sub 1.00 WHIP. If he can keep the walks down where they were last year, he’s still a good candidate for a sub-4.00 ERA. But behind him, it’s a pile of muck. There’s no one here that should be more than a below average #3. Sure, with the youth in the four spots behind Duchscherer, a breakout or two is possible, but Dana Eveland will have to stop eating and figure out what went wrong after the All-Star break, Sean Gallagher will have to be better than the 5.88 ERA he had in the AL and Gio Gonzalez still is a bit away from being an effective big league starter.

RP: Joey Devine is the favorite to be the closer after fanning 49 in 45 IP, while Brad Ziegler will be the primary righthanded setup man. Russ Springer was signed to be a dependable bullpen arm, and it still remains to be seen whether Santiago No I’m Not Jairo Garcia But I Am Three Years Older Casilla will be the stud that everyone expected him to be.

In 100 words or less: The additions of Holliday and Giambi help the middle of the order despite Holliday’s relative ineffectiveness away from Coors, but Eric Chavez will have to stay healthy–a huge gamble–for the offense to show any type of major improvement. The strength of the team is it’s bullpen, and if the A’s want to be a legitimate contender, they’ll need two or three drastic improvements in the rotation, and it isn’t going to happen. But thanks to playing in one of the weakest divisions in baseball, second place is not out of the equation.

Your Orioles preview was prepared by Diamond and Big Fat.

A Look Back: The Orioles suffered through a 2008 season that has become all too familiar for O’s fans. The Orioles started off the season in respectable fashion. They scratched and clawed to a 41-40 record at the midway point of the season, and had fans excited by manager Dave Trembley’s team. If only the season had ended at 81 games. As usual, the O’s crashed and burned after the All-Star break, and finished the 2008 season with a 68-93 record. This was good for last place in the AL East, 28.5 games behind the Rays.

Off Season Moves: The Orioles made one major play in the free agent market in the off season, and lost. A Baltimore native who shall remain nameless (because I can’t spell it) decided that he would rather play in pinstripes than in the glorious black and orange; fuck him. The O’s did bring in a number of free agents in the off season including a starting shortstop in Cesar Izturis, a starting pitcher in Koji Uehara and a solid right handed bat in Ty Wigginton. They also acquired Felix Pie for Garrett Olson and a bag of greenies from the Cubs. The Cubs also sent Rich Hill to Baltimore for the PTBNL. They also unloaded Ramon Hernandez to the Reds for Ryan Freel.

Pitching: The Orioles have 37 pitchers reporting to spring training this season. With only 2 spots in the rotation sewn up (Guthrie and Uehara), the rest of the starting spots are up for grabs. Likely candidates will be Rich Hill, David Pauley (14-4 at Pawtucket last season), Mark Hendrickson, Chris Waters, Brad Hennessey, Matt Albers and Danys Baez. The bullpen will consist of closer George Sherrill, Chris Ray, Jim Johnson, Dennis Sarfate, Jamie Walker, Jim Miller, John Parrish, Radhames Liz and Kam Mickolio.

Catcher: The season will start with Gregg Zaun as the starter with Chad Moeller or Robby Hammock serving as his backup. Sometime in May or June Matt Wieters is going to be called up to the O’s from AAA Norfolk. The team wants Wieters to be brought up slowly, but his numbers last year between A Frederick and AA Bowie (.355, .454, .600, 27 HR, 92 RBI)may speed that process up considerably.

First Base: Playing time at first will be split between Aubrey Huff (.304, .360, .552, 32 HR, 108 RBI) and Ty Wigginton (.285, .350, .526).

Second Base: Brian Roberts just signed a 4-year $40 million deal to remain the Orioles’ second baseman and leadoff hitter.

Shortstop: Cesar Izturis was brought to Baltimore to solve a problem that plagued the team last year. There was a revolving door of nobodies at shortstop that was responsible for 28 errors in 2008. Izturis committed only 11 errors last year in 130 games. He also adds some more speed to the lineup, having stolen 24 bases last year.

Third Base: Melvin Mora returns at the hot corner for the Birds this season. Mora’s 23 HR and 103 RBI and .285 average from last season will put him in the #2 hole hitting behind Brian Roberts. Wigginton and Huff will serve as his backups this year.

Outfield: The Orioles resigned Nick Markakis to a 6-year, $66 million deal in the offseason. Markakis’ numbers last year (.306, .406, .491, 20 HR, 87 RBI) make him one of the best and most popular players on the team.
Markakis will be joined in the outfield by CF Adam Jones. Jones’ 2008 season was shortened by a fractured left foot. They hope his power numbers rise with the ten pounds of muscle he added this offseason, and that he learns to be a little more patient at the plate (only 23 BB in 477 AB). Left field will be filled by newly acquired Felix Pie and last season’s starter, Luke Scott. Scott had a pretty good season last year at the plate and in the field, but he isn’t in the plans for the long term with the team. Pie, Jones and Markakis would perhaps give the O’s MLB’s best defensive outfield.

Prediction: There are a lot of questions about the Orioles this season, but one thing is for certain. Ever since Andy MacPhail took over the team, he has started to develop the Orioles from the farm system all the way up to the big club. For the first time in a long time, O’s fans are seeing a light at the end of the tunnel after 11 straight losing seasons. Wieters, Jones, Pie, Markakis and Roberts form a nice nucleus that the club will be able to build on and market to a fanbase that is regularly shouted down at home games by visiting team’s fans. If the starting pitchers can’t get out of the fifth inning, the bullpen will eventually break down just like last year. If the starters can go deep and the O’s can use Johnson, Sarfate, Ray and Sherrill to close out games they may be able to avoid their late August/early September swoon. Offensively, the O’s lineup (with Wieters catching) can stack up with almost any team in the league, except for three of the other four teams in their own division.

It is pretty sad when an 81 win season would be considered a HUGE success for this team. The O’s are looking to 2010 and beyond with a deep group of promising young pitchers that includes big lefty Chris Tillman (more plunder from the Bedard trade), 2007 5th-rounder Jake Arrieta, and 2008 #4 pick Brian Matusz.

81 wins is probably their ceiling, but 73-75 wins is more likely.

(thanks to Swamp Monster EdRomero)

Because there’s not enough on the Internet about the Red Sox…

Hitting: Francona may be leaning towards starting Julio Lugo at shortstop. Doing this gives the overpaid veteran a chance to redeem himself and allows Jed Lowrie to play 3rd if Mike Lowell can’t come back right away. Once a guy over 30 starts getting injury problems, I expect the problems to continue. David Ortiz and Lowell will be valuable cogs in the lineup, but the Sox will need to depend on their lineup’s depth throughout the season. Lowrie may show more power this year since he’s recovered from a wrist injury that affected him last year to play

Speaking of injuries, JD Drew says his back still hurts, so Rocco Baldelli will quickly get the opportunity to remind fans of how great he was before being struck with injuries. In center, pitchers seemed to figure out Jacoby Ellsbury, so it’s time to see if he can adjust or just be a good 2007 heart-throbby memory. Jason Bay quickly became a valuable part of the lineup and is now in a contract year so expect a big season from him. Depth could be a problem here with no more Coco Crisp, injury concerns, and no super prospect waiting in the minors.

Speaking of problems, Jason Varitek is back for another season. He has some excuses for last year – illness, injuries, divorce, alleged affair with a NESN personality – but the biggest factor for his ineptitude is that he’s an old catcher. He either needs to find an untraceable steroid or get more time off. Josh Bard is back as a backup. The good news is two of the last three seasons he was a good hitter; the bad news is last year was the bad one where his hitting could be best described as Varitekian.

I knew I forgot something; Kevin Youkilis and Dustin Pedroia should continue to be pretty good.

Pitching: Jon Lester became the ace of the pitching staff last year while Beckett stopped pitching like an ace. After seeing Lester get better and stronger as the season progressed, optimistic Sox fans see him as a perennial All Star (unless he breaks down like other young pitchers have). Daisuke Matsuzaka won 18 games last year despite taking every hitter he faced to a full count and pitching every inning with runners on base. He may finally get burned for pitching like this, or he may continue to progress as he continues to adjust to American baseball. With Dice-K improving and Beckett getting his playoff magic back, the Red Sox may have the best top of the rotation in baseball. After the top three, there’s a future Hall of Famer and former All Star starter coming back from injuries, a few prospects who could step in or become trade bait, and good ol’ Tim Wakefield, who every year seems to have a good run of games (followed by a bad run).

Jonathon Papelbon anchors a bullpen which should be improved with a full season of the promising Justin Masterson, the additions of Takashi Saito and Ramon Ramirez and the subtraction of Mike Timlin

Fantasy Impact: Hazel Mae no longer works for NESN.

Interesting factoid: The Red Sox have 3 successful closers on their roster, which is the same number of runs scored by Ed Romero for the 1988 Red Sox. 1988 was John Smoltz’s rookie season.

Ah, spring. The time of year when baseball fans start waxing nostalgic about seasons past and building optimism for the future. Not Pirates fans. We have to look all the way back to 1992 for the last winning season. Come October, the Pirates will have played 17 consecutive losing seasons, and they will singlehandedly hold the North American record for futility. Take that, Phillies!

And they’ll be taking the field with pretty much the same line-up that lost 95 games last year, minus the first-half contributions of Jason Bay and Xavier Nady. Ian Snell and Tom Gorzellany, two starting pitchers who were expected to have breakout years in 2008, regressed terribly. Adam LaRoche may or may not hit before June. His brother Andy, who looked completely overmatched both offensively and defensively last season, is now dealing with a bulging disc in his back. Jack Wilson and Freddy Sanchez are still shoring up the middle infield, such as it is. (I like both of these guys, but in my weaker moments I’ve referred to them as “Out Machines.”) The bullpen is still a question mark. So, there’s certainly no reason for optimism, right?

Wrong. For the first time in as long as I can remember, I’m excited about the direction this team is taking. I am blindly devoted to President Frank Coonelly and GM Neal Huntington until they prove me wrong. Former GM David Littlefield left the minor-league system barren. Through trades and radical new concepts like drafting the best available players, Huntington has stocked the system with a handful of potential high-end players.

The biggest name, of course, is Pedro Alvarez, the second pick in last year’s entry draft. After a protracted song-and-dance in which he refused to sign his contract, while Superagent/douche Scott Boras and Coonelly traded barbs through the media, Alvarez did not exactly endear himself to Pirates fans. And then, several months later, he showed up at minicamp overweight and unwilling to talk to reporters. All of this will (hopefully) be forgiven and forgotten once he starts to hit. He’s already drawing Willie Stargell comparisons in spring training.

Andrew McCutchen, a toolsy centerfielder and first-round pick in 2005, will probably open the season in Indianapolis so that the Pirates can keep his arbitration clock from ticking, but it’s a safe bet that the highlight of the Pirates’ season will be the day in May when McCutchen is called up.

Jose Tabata, an outfielder/head case who came over in the Nady/Marte trade last year, is another intriguing, young prospect. Players and coaches are talking about the way the ball sounds when it hits his bat. That’s the kind of stuff that brings a tear to Dusty Baker’s eye.

There are a handful of guys in the low minors who are worth noting: Bryan Morris, a 21-year-old pitcher acquired from the Dodgers in the Jason Bay trade, might be the top pitching prospect in the Pirates’ system. OF Robbie Grossman and P Quentin Miller were taken later in last year’s draft and paid well above slot to sign here.

So, what about the big club? Nobody seems to be expecting much this season, so at least we won’t be disappointed. If a handful of players can continue to improve, I’ll consider the season a success. Over the winter, Huntington locked up Ryan Doumit, Nate McLouth, and Paul Maholm through their arbitration years, with club options for an additional year. There’s no guarantee that these guys are going to be better than they were in 2008, but these were all smart, responsible signings.

Going into last season, the biggest question mark about Doumit was his health. He could hit, but he could never stay healthy through a full season. And, well, there was a question about his defense. When he beat out Ronny Paulino for the starting catching job, I truly felt that this was a different Pirates team, willing to take a chance on a player with more upside. He stayed healthy and produced (.318/.357/.501 with 15 HR in 116 games). McLouth had a monster first half before cooling off, finishing .276/.356/.497 with 26 HR.

Maholm became the Pirates’ ace in 2008. Yes, that was partly due to Snell and Gorzellany’s regression, but Maholm’s numbers, while not spectacular, were certainly solid: 206.3 IP, 201 H, 63 BB, 139 K, 1.279 WHIP. In a year when the other starters had trouble making it through 2 or 3 innings, that saved a lot of wear and tear on the bullpen. He’s not a strikeout pitcher (only one game with 10 K last year), but he keeps his walks down, and he cut down on his home runs in the second half of the season.

Gorzellany was abused by Jim Tracy in 2007. In one stretch, he threw 110, 118, 120, 97, 117, 95, 123, 103, 107, 100, 109, 112 pitches. He finished September with a similar string of games. It was no surprise when he struggled last season. I would watch him get pulled in the 3rd inning and curse Jim Tracy’s ghost. Of course, arriving at spring training overweight didn’t help Gorzellany, either. Hopefully, the newer, healthier, something-approaching-svelter Gorzellany will bounce back in 2009.

I have no idea what to make of Ian Snell. Big talent, big arm, but so frustrating to watch. He was sometimes dominant and usually reliable in 2006-07, but last year finished with a 1.765 WHIP and was chased before the 6th inning in 14 of his 31 starts.

Ross Ohlendorf, another hard thrower acquired in the trades last year, has a chance to crack the rotation this spring. He could be very good if he learns to throw a third pitch effectively. Maholm and Snell are penciled in. The other three spots will go to some combination of Gorzellany, Ohlendorf, Zach Duke, and Jeff Kartens. Phil Dumatrait, when he’s healthy, is also an option.

No, this team is not going to be a contender. But for the first time in years, it’s not hard to imagine the day when it could be.

This is the first Royals season in quite some time that the team hasn’t unveiled a marketing campaign centered around a catchphrase of some sort. Maybe that’s a sign that the marketing department actually expects this team to be good.

Of course, “good” is relative, but based on how the Royals played in September last season, a .500 season isn’t necessarily out of the question. To get there, they’re going to have to overcome some very obvious shortcomings at a few positions, and hope like hell that the young guns don’t stink up the joint. But when you’re playing in a division that’s suddenly gone from first-to-worst, the Royals can dare to dream.

C: Well, here’s one of the shortcomings, and it’s an obvious one. John Buck and Miguel Olivo are essentially the same player. Both are absolutely brutal against righthanders and are much better against lefties. Manager Trey Hillman took a bit of an unconventional step of DHing Olivo against lefties at times last year while Buck caught, to maximize Olivo’s .315/.526 line against southpaws. Overall, Olivo is slightly the lesser of the two evils as his SLG makes up for the edge that Buck has in OBP. However, if Buck can get his average in the .260 range, his walk rate gives him a clear edge over Olivo.

1B: If the Royals could put one of these guys behind the plate, I’d be very happy. But neither of them are any good defensively at first–save for Ross Gload, but he’s not an upgrade–so that would work out horribly. Mike Jacobs is nice when you look at his homer total from 2008, but then you look at everything else and he’s not nice. He can’t hit, he can’t get on base, and he can’t play the field worth a lick. And his decency only comes against righthanded pitchers. Oh boy. Ryan Shealy would seem to be a great platoon partner, but for some reason, his career splits against lefties (despite being a righthanded hitter) are .179/.263/.298, and it’s almost inevitable that Shealy will be released. I’d be content if they let Kila Ka’aihue play at first because his walk rate would overcome any average deficiencies that he’d have in his first full season in the big leagues, but that’s not going to happen.

2B: The best case scenario for the position is that Mark Teahen wins the starting second base job despite it being his third position in three years and the fact that starting second basemen over 6 feet are like blue moons and Teahen is 6-3. (I’m not going to mention the fact that Teahen’s BA dropped 30 points last year, while his walk rate declined slightly) The second best case scenario is that the Royals start Alberto Callaspo and he hits his expected .290/.360 with no power and speed and range and Teahen is a super-utility player. The worst case scenario is that Willie Bumquist–he of the 2 year $3 million deal–starts, and keeping the incredible Tony Pena Jr. on the roster as the backup middle infielder. Oh how I wish for options one or two.

3B: The position is set with Alex Gordon, it’s just a matter of what Gordon will do. If he can sustain the walk rate spike he showed last year, and have an equal average spike, the Royals are looking at a .282/.373/.450 player without an increase in power. Realistically, the Royals can expect a .270/.360/.480 season from Gordon, with hopefully 20+ homeruns. Anything less than that, and .500 is not a real possibility.

SS: Thank you Mike Aviles. So what if last year was his breakout age 27 season. I don’t care. He could have hit .250/.300/.375 and it would have been a godsend after the year that Tony Pena Jr. was having. Aviles is likely to regress in 2009, which is expected, as he doesn’t really walk much and he’s theoretically reached his ceiling. Because of that poor walk rate, a drastic drop in BA is going to hurt a bunch, so while a .270 AVG may look nice, the borderline .300 OBP won’t. As for TPJ, he got Lasik surgery and says that his depth perception is back. In winter ball, TPJ posted a .275/.347 line, walking 18 times, or two more THAN THE LAST TWO SEASONS IN KANSAS CITY COMBINED.

OF: David DeJesus is solidly entrenched in LF after his best season in what was his age 28 year. DeJesus is a great CF if there are two solid defensive outfielders around him. He covers the ground he’s supposed to, no more, but he got exposed with Teahen and Jose Guillen in the corners. But while the bat plays well in CF, it’s not ideal for a corner OF. Guillen is back, supposedly in the “best shape of his life,” but he’s a 33 year old malcontent who is a hacker. Already he’s had a sore back and shoulder, and removed an ingrown toenail himself, probably because he wanted an excuse to miss some conditioning work. Guillen isn’t necessarily a horrible option if he can be buried in the 7 or 8 spot in a good lineup. However, he’s cast as the cleanup hitter for the Royals with a PECOTA projection of .271/.313/.430. Yikes. In an effort to improve the OF defense, the Royals got Coco Crisp for the moderate price of Ramon Ramirez. Crisp will have to shade a bit towards right to compensate for Guillen’s laziness, and actually may cause Guillen to become even more complacent in the field because he’ll have less ground to cover. Offensively, Crisp slots in as the the team’s leadoff hitter and will be playing for an $8 million club option in 2010.

DH: Billy Butler has a stranglehold on the spot if he can show the sustained power that he hasn’t had in the big leagues yet. Butler has hit when he’s been in Kansas City, it’s just that there’s been too many singles (and GIDPs) for a guy who’s 6-1 240. If Butler’s PECOTA of .291/.352/.457 comes true in 2009, Hillman will be crazy not to have moved him into the cleanup spot.

PROJECTED LINEUP:
CF Crisp
SS Aviles
LF DeJesus
RF Guillen
1B Jacobs
DH Butler
3B Gordon
C Olivo
2B Teahen/Callaspo/Bumquist

With the exception of DeJesus, the top five of the order may have the worst combined OBP in the league.

SP: Gil Meche and Zack Greinke are solidly entrenched as the team’s top two starters. Meche has been dependable over the last two seasons and has been the closest thing to an ace for the Royals since the Kevin Appier Era. While Meche will have the “ace” and no. 1 starter designation for as long as he keeps pitching well, Greinke surpassed him last year, posting a 1.28 WHIP and 3.47 ERA with 183 Ks in 202 IP. Greinke’s just 25, so the 80 inning increase is a bit of a concern despite the clean mechanics (and not even taking into account Greinke’s history of mental illness). But after Meche and Greinke, the rotation gets messy. One spot seemingly is reserved for Horacio Ramirez because of the contract that the Royals gave him and Hillman and Moore’s insistence that there has to be a lefty in the rotation. Ramirez did pitch well for the Royals last year before he was traded to the White Sox, but that was out of the bullpen. Add in Ramirez’s history of shoulder problems, and I have severe doubts that this will go well. That leaves two rotation spots between Brian Bannister, Kyle Davies and Luke Hochevar. Based on 2008, Davies and Hochevar have to be considered the favorites, especially considering Hochevar’s #1 pick status. Bannister does have options left, and his stuff doesn’t translate well to the bullpen except in a long relief role.

RP: The closer position is set with Joakim Soria. Soria was absolutely filthy last season, and there’s no reason to expect anything different this year unless he has a shoulder issue. His velocity doesn’t wow, as he only hits 92 or so on the radar gun, but he’s got a dizzying array of pitches, and he struck out 66 in 67 IP in 2008. The rest of the pen is pretty unsettled because the teams second and third best relievers–Ramirez and Leo Nunez–were dealt in the offseason. In their place is Kyle Farnsworth, whom Dayton Moore signed to a ridiculous two year deal, and Ron Mahay, who pitched solidly to both right and lefthanded hitters in 2008. The sleeper in the bullpen is Robinson Tejeda, who pitched well in a mop-up role after being acquired off of waivers from Texas. The early reports out of camp say that Tejeda is throwing exceptionally well, and if he truly can harness his 95 MPH fastball and a second pitch, he could become the team’s second best reliever.

SP: Meche
SP: Greinke
SP: Davies
SP: Ramirez
SP: Hochevar

CP: Soria
RP: Farnsworth
RP: Mahay
RP: Tejeda
RP: Waechter
RP: Peralta
RP: Gobble

In 100 words or less: .500 is realistic, but only if Butler and Gordon hit to their projections, Mike Jacobs smashes 30 HR to make up for his crappy OBP and the Royals can get some production out of 2B. Kyle Davies needs to pitch like he did in September, Luke Hochevar takes an important step forward and the team can seamlessly replace Ramirez and Nunez as the bridge to Soria. More than likely, all of those factors don’t come together and the Royals win 75 games.

From Sabo!!!!

A Look Back: Despite the transformation of Cliff Lee into a Cy Young winner, 2008 wasn’t particularly kind to the Cleveland Indians. A horrible start killed the Tribe’s ambitions to win the American League, and injuries to Victor Martinez and Travis Hafner severely minimized the team’s firepower. Still, it wasn’t all doom and gloom along the shores of Lake Erie. Aside from Lee’s phenomenal year, the Indians saw CF Grady Sizemore blossom into the best center fielder in baseball. C Kelly Shoppach proved he can be an everyday starting catcher in the majors. The Indians rebounded considerably in the second half, going 40-28 after the All-Star break to give them an even 81-81 record.

Offense:If healthy, the Indians should be able to score runs in droves. On the field, Sizemore is the leading offensive threat for the Indians. Last year, he was a 30/30 man who led the team in hits (170), home runs (33), stolen bases (38) and walks (98) tied for the lead in RBI (90) and was second in runs scored (104). SS Jhonny Peralta helped fill the power hole by hitting 23 HR and driving in 89 runs while scoring 104.

The Tribe will be bolstered by the returns of DH Travis Hafner and C Victor Martinez from injury. The team hopes Hafner’s swing improves after the shoulder surgery that limited him to 198 plate appearances. Martinez will be the starting catcher but will play first base at times to give Shoppach some starts.

Mark DeRosa’s arrival to play 3B fills the Tribe’s biggest hole after Andy Marte failed to impress during his extended tryout. 2B Asdrubal Cabrera is a defensive whiz but needs to improve considerably as a hitter. His natural position is at SS, and don’t be surprised if the Indians move DeRosa to 2B and Peralta to 3B to improve their up-the-middle defense. Garko will man 1B and look to improve his power numbers (15 HR, 90 RBI) and try to lower his strikeout numbers (133).

The corner OF positions are somewhat suspect. Shin-Soo Choo likely will get the start in right field, with Ben Francisco expected to be the starting LF. David Dellucci will get starts as well. Choo had a solid year in mostly part-time duty, hitting .309 in 317 plate appearances, while Francisco hit 15 HR and 54 RBI in 447 plate appearances. If neither Francisco nor Dellucci convincingly win the starting job, look for Shoppach to take on the primary catching duties, Martinez to move to 1B and Garko to get some starts in LF.

Pitching:There are more questions of the Indians’ pitching than there are in an SAT test. Will Lee prove 2008 was not a fluke? Can Fausto Carmona recover his 2007 form, when he went 19-8 with a 3.06 ERA? Is the one-year, incentive-laden deal for the injury-plagued Carl Pavano going to be worth it? Who will step up for the fourth and fifth spots in the rotation, and once they grab it, can they stay healthy and be productive?

Lee’s amazing 2008 season certainly didn’t seem likely. He had a horrible 2007 and spent the month of August in the minor leagues, partly to work on mechanics and partly to get his head on straight. He started 2008 on a hot streak, winning his first six games, and never looked back. Lee’s arrival as a top pitcher made it easier for the Indians to trade CC Sabathia to the Milwaukee Brewers, a trade that helped bolster the Tribe’s farm system. Lee’s 2008 shouldn’t have been that much of a surprise … in 2005, he finished fourth in AL Cy Young voting after going 18-5 with a 3.79 ERA. He has the game to be a big-time pitcher.

Less certain is Carmona, who had an ailing hip last season that affected his pitching mechanics. If the Indians are going to contend, they need Carmona to rebound in a big way. Returning to his 2007 form might be a stretch, but if the hip was the cause of all his problems last year, a 14-win season seems plausible.

Pavano will be expected to fill the third slot in the rotation, a role never properly filled after Jake Westbook had to shut down last year with his elbow injury. For most of his career, Pavano has been an ordinary starting pitcher at best, but he parlayed an 18-8 record in 2004 into a four-year, $38 million deal with the Yankees. The Yankees’ return on that investment? A 9-8 record in 26 starts and a Tommy John surgery to boot. The only certainty about Pavano is he will be booed heavily when he makes his return to New York.

Spring training will see an open competition for the fourth and fifth slots. The Indians are hoping RHP Anthony Reyes and LHP Aaron Laffey will win the jobs, but both will see competition from Jeremy Sowers, Zach Johnson, Scott Lewis, Tomo Ohka and Kirk Saarloos. Westbrook likely will re-enter the rotation once he returns from Tommy John surgery in July.

The Indians biggest splash during the off-season was made in the bullpen, when they signed Kerry Wood to a two-year, $20 million deal. The move gives the Tribe a top-flight closer, which is something they’ve lacked for several years (Joe Borowski or Bob Wickman, anyone?). The knock on Wood (pun!) is whether he can go an entire season without suffering an injury. If Wood is put back on the shelf, look for Jensen Lewis to take over the closer responsibilities. Lewis converted 13 of 13 save opportunities in August and September and proved to be a solid addition to the bullpen.

The rest of the bullpen slots will be filled by LHP Rafael Perez, RHP Rafael Betancourt, RHP Joe Smith (acquired from the Mets in the offseason), RHP Masa Kobayashi and possibly RHP Adam Miller. Miller is a top prospect for the Indians with a 95-98 mph fastball and a 88 mph slider.

Fantasy impact:If Sizemore isn’t in your top 3 outfielders, you should resign from fantasy baseball. He flirted with a 40/40 season before cooling off in September, and there’s no reason to think the 26-year-old can’t get better. Sizemore’s run totals were hurt by Hafner’s and Martinez’s absence in the line up, but that’s about the only blemish in his stats. … Can Hafner return to his 2004-2006 form, when he was a feared hitter in the AL? The Indians say his swing has returned to better form now that he’s no longer injured. But he really hasn’t been same since he forgot how to hit a curveball in the 2007 postseason.

Interesting factoid:In each of the last three seasons, Sizemore has finished in the top 12 in voting for AL MVP.

Offense: Finally, GM Bill SMith realized that Gary Gaetti wasn’t walking through the door and signed 3rd baseman Joe Crede to a one year deal. Terms of the dollars and incentives in the deal have been varied so we will skip that part.

Unfortunately, GM Bill Smith must think that Zolio Versalles is walking through the door because right now the Twinkies have Nick Punto penciled in as the starting shorstop. Per baseball reference Punto compares to these well known hitters,  Jake Flowers, Larvell Blanks and the immortal Joey Amalfitano.

They have four outfielders for three spots, leaving the enigmatic Delmon Young to ride the pine or be trade bait. Still with Mauer, Morneau and whatever Cuddyer provides before his annual DL visit the offense should be solid. Alexi Casilla was a welcome addition last year at 2nd base providing good defense and showing a decent eye at the plate for a player his age.

Pitching: The success of the Twins will hinge on its pitching. Last year the team gave innings to Livian Hernandez and Sir Sidney among others, but the kids outperformed the re-tread veterans. The Twins will begin the year with the youngest starting rotation in the AL, but if Fransico Liriano can make it back to pre injury form the Twins should be in the pennant race deep into September and perhaps play in October.

The bullpen is a number of question marks until you get to Joe Nathan and Pat Neshek, though still blogging, is out for the year.

Fantasy Impact: Mauer may have the most impact because of his position. Morneau is always solid as is Nathan and Liriano provided his health is fine.

Interesting Factoid: The team was nearly contracted (disbanded) in 2002, a move which would have eliminated the Twins and the Expos, now the Nationals, franchises. The Twins survived largely due to a court decision which forced them to play out their lease on the Metrodome.