Sportsfrog.com

(This is the first of what I hope to be 30 previews of 30 teams on the front page. Lofty? Sure, but hey, we shoot high around here. First up: EdRomero)

March is a wonderful month for Red Sox fans.  Peter Gammons tell us that every Sox veteran is in the best shape of their lives, every Sox youngster now finally “gets it,” and every newcomer is a perfect fit for Fenway and the city of Boston.  And I’ve fallen for it again.  Yes, an already great Yankees team improved their roster and the Rays still look dangerous, but this year’s Red Sox is a well constructed team.

Starting Pitching
The signing of John Lackey gives the Red Sox a third top of rotation type starter to go along with Jon Jester and Josh Beckett.  There has been a lot of chatter saying Beckett will soon sign a contract extension, so he’ll either be a very happy pitcher or a pitcher chasing a contract – the always motivated Beckett will do well in either situation as long as he stays healthy.  Lester appears to be entering his prime and Lackey looks to be solid if he can adjust to pitching at Fenway (and also that staying healthy issue).

For the bottom half of the rotation, the Red Sox hope Daiskuke Matsuzaka’s off year was a fluke and Clay Bucholz’s promising season was not a fluke.  If it’s the other way around, the Sox could be fluked.  If either pitcher does falter, 2009 All Star, Tim Wakefield is still around.  As he will for probably the next ten seasons, Wakefield will have a stretch of some tremendous games and then end the season terribly.  After Wakefield, Boof Bonser, Michael Bowden, and Junicha Tazawa can step in to eat some innings and help protect the bullpen with some long relief.

Bullpen
The bullpen was a strength for the 2009 Red Sox in the beginning of the season.  However, when 3/5 of the starting rotation can only pitch into the 5th inning, a good bullpen can quickly become bad.  Jonathon Papelbon has turned from one of the biggest strengths of the teams to one of the biggest question marks.  Last year, many of his save chances became adventures as he refused to throw the split fingered fastball and started walking batters.  The choice Papelbon seems stuck with is should he do what’s best for getting batters out or what’s best for his arm (and his next contract).  He says he’ll be using the split more often this year; if he doesn’t, expect some “leaked” stories about Papelbon saying or doing something stupid followed by a trade.

As for the rest, Daniel Bard is being touted as the next closer, but it’s still too early to tell. The rest are a bunch of solid veterans who should be fine unless they’re overworked.

Lineup
Gone is the power of Jason Bay and most likely Mike Lowell, but also gone are the automatic inning-enders at the catcher and shortstop positions.  As long as Kevin Youkilis, Dustin Pedroia, J.D. Drew, and Victor Martinez remain healthy, the Sox will have a good lineup, but that may not be enough even with improved pitching and defense.  They’ll need something more.
•Can Jacoby Ellsbury improve his OBP and maybe hit with more power? He’s hit some Damonesque homeruns in spring training and showed more patience at the end of last year.  But much like his pink hat fans flirting for free drinks, this could be just a tease
•Can Ortiz have a better season? I’m not expecting a repeat of last year’s disastrous start, but I’m also expecting him to get beat by good pitching while building his stats against poor pitching.
•What will Marco Scutaro, Mike Cameron, and Adrian Beltre do?  Scutaro’s coming off a career year and those usually aren’t repeated, but a disappointing Scutaro with his plate discipline will be better than last year’s assortment of shortstops .  Cameron and Beltre may bring some homeruns to Fenway, but will those makeup for the strikeouts and will Beltre stay healthy?  Even if they do disappoint, at least they can field.

Fielding
Last year, I probably didn’t even list this as a category, but Theo Epstein and Gammons have now taught me how important it is.  The 2009 Red Sox – with a calcified catcher who can’t throw baserunners out, shortstops making untimely errors, a left fielder with no range, and a third baseman unable to move – must have taught Theo that defense matters.  Or the Red Sox decided that with the available free agents, improving defense made more sense than improving the offense.

Whatever the reasons, the Red Sox now have their best fielding outfield in my 35-year lifetime (with maybe the exception of the 2008 Drew, Ellsbury, Coco Crisp outfield that occasionally played).  They also have a strong infield with gold glove caliber players at first, second, and third and a consistent shortstop.  Rounding out the defense, is the average fielding Victor Martinez, who will be playing catcher much more than he has in the recent past.

Bench
Jason Varitek as a starter was liability on the field and the plate. As a backup this year, he’s like the rest of the subpar backups in baseball and having more days off will possibly help him be better in his reduced role.  Mike Lowell will probably be traded away (again), but the Sox may want to hold onto him if they sense Ortiz’s decline is rapidly continuing .  Even though he can’t field anywhere close to how he used to, Mike Lowell can still hit (and take 40 seconds to get to first base after hitting a line drive).  If Terry Francona can massage the egos, an Ortiz/Lowell platoon should be better than anything the Red Sox can get in a Mike Lowell trade.

As for the non-elderly members of the bench, Jeremy Hermida has some potential to have a surprise season if one of the starters falters.  In 2006, Bill Hall has 35 homeruns; in 2008 Jed Lowrie was a promising prospect.  Also in 2006 and 2008, all of the Golden Girls were alive and Toyota’s were considered safe cars.

Don’t expect much help from the minors, as most of the Sox top prospects still looks to be a few years away from hitting the majors.  Last year’s favorite prospect, first baseman Lars Anderson is coming off a poor season.  Great things are being projected for this year’s favorite prospect, the slick fielding shortstop Jose Iglesias.  However, since he was born in the nineties, the Sox may need to wait a few years.

Miscellaneous
Money and a good farm system has allowed the Red Sox to make helpful midseason trades over the last few seasons.  This year, with the short term deals of Scutaro, Cameron, and Beltre along with the position flexibility of Youkilis, Martinez, and Scutaro, Theo Epstein will have a variety of options to try to improve the team. Let the Adrian Gonzalez, Carl Crawford, and Joe Mauer trade rumors begin!

Prediction: World Series Champions
Granted, this has been my Red Sox prediction for the last 30 years, and, for the Sox to beat the Yankees, something probably needs to go wrong in New York and two or three starters on the Red Sox will need to get very hot just in time for the playoffs.  All of this will happen: pitching, fielding, and lineup depth will lead the Red Sox to 100 wins and a World Series; Ellsbury and Bucholz finally “get it”; Ortiz has never felt better; Boston is the perfect place for Cameron, Beltre, and Scutaro; and Peter Gammons will have more good news about the Red Sox tomorrow.  All of this will happen because it’s the wonderful month of March.

Fun fact: Lester, Lackey, and Beckett all won deciding World Series Games before turning 25.

I know, I was surprised too. But for reasons that are beyond me, I opened the “Five Pressing Issues Facing the Red Sox” on si.com piece that he wrote, and skimmed it. In my defense, fantasy baseball drafts are on the way. At any rate, improved defense, good pitching, where is the offense going to come from etc. etc., pretty much what you would expect in a Red Sox season preview. Until I came to his words on Jacob Ellsbury, which went a little something like this:

Getting ready for his third full season in the bigs, the flossy outfielder is coming off a season in which he hit .301 with 70 stolen bases. Ellsbury is only 26-years-old and it’s all in front of him, but in order to accommodate Cameron the Sox are moving Ellsbury to leftfield for the foreseeable future. It’s a mistake.

Well, I disagree, I think the upgrade defensively (letting Jason Bay walk) will be notable and Cameron is no slouch with the stick and…

Wait a minute. “The flossy outfielder”? What the eff? What the hell does that mean? That he’s white and stringy? Flavored like a mint? That Shaughnessy likes putting Ellsbury between his teeth? A quick google search of flossy as an adjective doesn’t help much, unless, maybe, Shaughnessy was using Bay Area hip hop slang and saying that Ellsbury is a phony. Also, according to urban dictionary, it could mean someone who makes one horny, so perhaps Shaughnessy is slyly expressing his deep and abiding manlove for Ellsbury. Or, quite possible, I am overthinking this. Or not.

I have decided not.

To recap the last 24 hours in Red Sox nation:

—Red Sox continue to express interest in Bill Wagner

—Closer Jonathan Papelbon is quoted on WEEI wondering why the Red Sox would do that

—The Red Sox acquire Billy Wagner

—GM Theo Epstein is called upon for a clean-up in aisle five:

Epstein has also had a long chat with Jonathan Papelbon on comments which first appeared on WEEI.com where Papelbon expressed reservations about including Wagner into the bullpen and how that would impact roles.

“I think Pap feels he was misunderstood,” Epstein said. “He’s not a Rhodes Scholar to begin with. When I talked to him directly about it he couldn’t have been more excited. When we had our window (to speak to Wagner), Pap went out of his way to make sure he knew he was more than welcome here.

Re: the bold, true dat.

Still close:

Boston
Texas 1.5 back
Tampa 3.0 back

The Red Sox are hosting the White Sox (smushed the White Sox last night).

The Rays are in Tortonto (and ripped Roy Halladay apart last night).

And Texas, well, they are in New York starting tonight as they continue their two weeks from hell schedule. I still think this is ultimately going to be between the Red Sox and Rays, but the Rangers still have plenty of chances to prove me wrong.

Temporarily tired of getting sand kicked in their face, and continuing AJ Burnett’s recent puzzlement over the fact that the mound to the plate is the same distance in Fenway as it is at every other baseball stadium, the Red Sox stopped the bleeding with a 14-1 thrashing of New York yesterday, to get back to 6.5 games behind the Yankees.

And, in potentially better news for Red Sox fans, Brad Penny will no longer ruin games for Boston from the starting rotation, so they got that going for them…

…Boston had run off eight straight wins against the Yankees?

Yeah.

That was awhile go.

New York wins their fifth straight against the Red Sox (reeling?) with a 20-11 beatdown in Fenway last night.

Is Boston SURE it doesn’t need to acquire some more pitching? The Wild Card is not assured…

…and got burned.

Since taking the Wild Card lead outright on Sunday and extending it to one full game on Monday, they have dropped their last two to Minnesota and already fallen back behind the Red Sox.

It was fun while it lasted.

Hey, Rangers? The Twins are the EASY team on your current two weeks of hell schedule. Not good.

Oh, while we’re here, the Rays have crept to within three of the Wild Card leading Red Sox. That’s probably the team to keep the real eye on for giving the Red Sox the most trouble as we move through the dog days…

The standings heading into the mid-August weekend deep in the dog days are here.

Some observations:

–The only divisional race in the AL that looks to have serious juice is in the Central, where the White Sox trail the Tigers by 2.5 games. At 6.5 up and 4.5 up, the Yankees in the East the Angels to a slightly lesser extent in the West are looking pretty good.

—The fun in the AL is at the Wild Card slot where Boston is a mere .5 game up on Texas and 4 up on Tampa. And, oh look, the Rangers are hosting the Red Sox this weekend. Well worth checking back on. The problem for Texas? Their upcoming schedule beyond this weekend’s wild card showdown is unrelenting: the 3 against Boston followed by four against Minnesota and then a road trip to the Yankees and Rays (and Twins). Survive that within shouting distance of Boston and they can be taken a little more seriously.

—In the NL, the division races look to be nearing ice, with Philly, St. Louis, and LA 4.5, 4.5, and 5.0 games up respectively.

—That being the case, the juice in the NL is also in the Wild Card, where the Rockies hold a 1.5 game lead on San Francisco, and are 3.0 up on Florida, 3.5 up on Atlanta, and 5.0 up on the Cubs. Anyone outside of that group has next to no chance at the playoffs (and the Cubs’ chances are dimming). Of interest this weekend is the ever-surprising Marlins hosting the Rockies with a chance to do some damage to Colorado’s slim lead. In case you have not noticed, and why would you have, Florida has had 10 more more hits in 10 straight games now and have won six of their last seven games.

Just some stuff to keep an eye on as the NFL news starts to take center stage…

Last night, the Sawx and Tigers pitchers took turns throwing at each other’s hitters until Kevin Youkilis got mad, charged the mound, threw his helmet at Porcello, tried to tackle him, and ended up on the bottom of a pile.

Here’s a link to the incident on YouTube. Both Youkilis and Porcello were ejected. This should result in a 5-7 game suspension for Youk. But the use of the helmet is the most disconcerting part, and could alter that. Youkilis says this is his first mound-charging incident. So maybe some leniency should be considered. Especially because he was also hit the day before. But when you throw a helmet in the general direction of someone’s head from five-ten feet away, that warrants closer scrutiny. It’s not as bad as a bat, obviously, but you could do some damage.

Regardless of the discipline dished out from the Used Car Salesman, that’s weak sauce from Boston’s “tough” guy. You also have to credit the skinny Porcello for using Youk’s momentum in the takedown.

P.S.  Theo said: “We’re lucky to have depth with our corner position players and we’ll deal with it the best we can. You hate to lose one of your best players.”

Translation: “See, Sawx fans, trading for Casey Kotchman was a great idea. Stop hating me for not getting a shortstop.”

…just sinking in to me, as I come out of my late summer coma.

The Rangers with their win today, are within 1/2 game of the Wild Card lead, and will be level with the Red Sox if Boston loses again tonight in the Bronx. And the defending AL champ Rays are just 1 1/2 back themselves of the Red Sox. More to come here. Much more.

The Marlins, with their win over the Phillies today, have pulled to within four games of the NL East leading Phils.

Wild card and divisional standings here and here.