Sportsfrog.com

from the one and only Bensell:

I haven’t been that bad in my previews so far, given my 3rd pick from the Derby Preview ran second (Pioneerof the Nile) and my 1st and 3rd picks for the Preakness (Rachel Alexandra & Musket Man) ran as predicted. With the focus being on Mine That Bird and his jockey’s quest for the Calvin Crown, let’s see if I can give you a full trifecta (morning line odds in parenthesis).

Dunkirk (4-1) He broke bad in Derby, and never got into the race, as he finished a nonthreatening 11th. He’s a $3.7 million yearling purchase who has the field best Beyer number, a 108 from his runner up performance in the Florida Derby, and comes from the barn of 2007 Belmont winning trainer Todd Pletcher. I’m looking forward to a big second half of the year from this colt.

Chocolate Candy (10-1) Jerry Hollendorfer sent this colt to Belmont Park after his rough Derby trip, where he finished a troubled 5th in his first start on a dirt track. I look for a big improvement and the best chance for a Triple Crown winner for eventual Hall of Famer Hollendorfer.

Summer Bird (12-1) He’s the other horse by Belmont winner Birdstone, and his 6th place in the Kentucky Derby was better than it appears on paper. I’m not buying that the pace scenario benefits the front runners this year, and I think both Birds will be flying at the end.

Mine That Bird (2-1) The Derby winner keeps proving me wrong and it wouldn’t surprise me to see him complete the Calvin Crown. I just think the 2 early Triple Crown races have left him at less than his best for tomorrow’s race, especially as a short priced favorite.

Miner’s Escape (15-1) This Mineshaft colt appears to be the other speed horse in the race, with Charitable Man being the main pacesetter, a route that a Nick Zito trained horse (Da’ Tara) used last year to win. I don’t expect him to hang around as late as last year’s Zito surprise, but I do think he puts enough pressure on Charitable Man to ruin both of their chances at big money.

Charitable Man (3-1) The wise guy horse of this year, he’s a perfect 3 for 3 on the dirt and 2 for 2 at Belmont Park. His breeding screams for the added distance, but his running style is forwardly placed, and Alan Garcia is not going to steal this race like he did last year.

Mr. Hot Stuff (15-1) This full brother to Colonel John ran 15th in the Derby last out in his first start on a dirt track. I think he’s a much better horse on the synthetic track and look for his best performances this summer and fall out West on their various “fake” surfaces.

Flying Private (12-1) He ran a career best Beyer Speed Figure (102) with his 4th place effort in the Preakness, but I think he’s much more likely to finish closer to last place as he did in the Derby, than be a superfecta threat in the Belmont.

Brave Victory (15-1) The other Nick Zito trainee has the pedigree of a sprinter and despite hitting the board in 2 of his 3 lifetime races at Belmont Park, I don’t see him being a factor.

Luv Gov (20-1) The colt that is named for former New York Governor Elliot Spitzer finished 8th in the Preakness, and I would be shocked if the D. Wayne Lukas trainee can manage that in the Belmont Stakes.

There are 5 other Graded Stakes on the card, and I’m going to look at making money by betting Pick 3s and Pick 4s. I’ll post some of my other picks in the Swamp, with my top 4 picks in Belmont anchoring my bets. Good luck with any wager you place.