Walker, 2009 Texas Rangers
Baseball | Baseball Season Preview 2009 - Can anyone pitch? - Chuck!
by Bronto on Saturday, March 7th, 2009 at 12:31pm
If Chuck Norris could pitch, the Rangers would be in good shape. But Chuck would underperform in his first couple years as a Ranger (or show enough to be traded) and would then be great for the team that he goes to next.
The Rangers’ inability to find–and keep–a young pitcher must be maddening for Rangers fans. Edinson Volquez? Traded; albeit for Josh Hamilton. John Danks? Traded for Brandon McCarthy, who lost that highly regarded status once he started pitching at the Ballpark in Arlington. Chris Young? Traded with Adrian Gonzalez for Adam Eaton and Akinori Otsuka. Armando Galarraga? Traded for a minor leaguer.
But hey, at least the Rangers can hit, right?
C: With the departure of Gerald Laird, it looks like the time is now for Jarrod Saltalamacchia to live up to the promise he showed to make the Rangers demand his inclusion in the return package for Mark Teixeira. Salty hasn’t been *horrible* and is only 24, but his performance certainly has been underwhelming. He was hurt for a lot of last year, and managed only 230 PAs. Look for Saltalamacchia to get 400 ABs this year, while Taylor Teagarden takes the other 200.
1B: A converted third baseman, Chris Davis won’t come close to replacing Mark Teixeira in the AVG or OBP categories. But he’ll come damn close (and may even surpass) Tex in the power department. Davis hit 17 HR in just 317 PAs and slugged .549. PECOTA projects him with 29 HR in 574 PAs, but posting just a .259/.312/.490 line.
2B: When healthy, Ian Kinsler is the best second baseman in the American League, that midget in Boston be damned. He’s just never going to be in the MVP consideration as long as the Rangers have their current pitching staff. Kinsler has just 1500 PAs in the last three seasons, but has hit 52 homeruns and has emerged as a stolen base threat as well. However, according to BP, Kinsler was -10 in runs defensively in 2008.
3B: The left side of the infield will be the Rangers’ weakness in 2009. Michael Young slides over to the hot corner to make room for Elvis Andrus, but if you were expecting a 2006 Michael Young, you’re in for a huge disappointment. He’s 32 and on the decline, doesn’t walk much, and has an albatross of a contract. His power is all but zapped, and while he’ll be an above average defender at third, PECOTA only projects him for a .279/.334/.393 season at the plate.
SS: Elvis Andrus will be known in the near future as the guy who replaced Michael Young, and for Rangers fans expecting him to duplicate the production that they became accustomed to from Young in the middle part of the decade, they’re going to be sorely disappointed. Sure, Andrus is only 20, but he needs to learn how to take a walk and hit a homer. PECOTA says to expect a line of .249/.299/.332 while his errors make him a wash in the field.
OF: Everything that can be said about Josh Hamilton has been said, so there’s no point dwelling on Hamilton. Except that it’s interesting to note that PECOTA projects a 20 point AVG drop (walk rate remaining stable) and a 50 point SLG drop. But Hamilton was so good last year, that the 2009 projection still remains in the upper tier of outfielders. It’s hard to believe that Nelson Cruz is 28, but he’s been bouncing between Dallas and Oklahoma City for the past three years. Cruz smashed 44 homers in just 581 PAs in OKC and Dallas, posting a 1.000+ OPS at both places. While pitchers are bound to figure him out over the course of a full season, he’s still going to be a decent corner outfield option for a couple of years. David Murphy is the outfield’s weak link, as his power isn’t anywhere close to that of Hamilton or Cruz’s, his 15 HR outburst in 2008 notwithstanding. In all likelihood, Murphy will take the share of LF ABs against righties, while Marlon Byrd slots in against lefthanders.
DH: Hank Blalock and Frank Catalanotto are a bit of a downgrade from Milton Bradley’s 2008. Juuuuuust slightly. If one of them was righthanded, they’d have themselves a nice little platoon. However, both are going to be vulnerable to lefties, and whatever edge Catalanotto has over Blalock in the OBP department, Blalock makes up with his power.
SP: Here’s where things get really fun for the Rangers. Kevin Millwood is an ace only because of his past performances, because his last two seasons of a 1.60 WHIP aren’t worthy of being a fifth starter. But this is Texas, so he’s the #1. Vicente Padilla is the #2, and Texas can only hope that they get some sort of contract year bounce from both Millwood and Padilla. Scott Feldman projects as the #3, and PECOTA doesn’t like him either. McCarthy has the best PECOTA projection of the Rangers top four at a sub 1.50 WHIP (barely) and a 5.04 ERA and he’s the #4. The fifth starter position is up for grabs between Matt Harrison, the skeleton of Jason Jennings and Dustin Nippert.
RP: The bullpen is going to be better than the rotation, but that’s like saying puking is better than explosive diarrhea. Chair-beater Frank Francisco is the frontrunner to be the closer over CJ Wilson, who got 24 saves despite a 1.64 WHIP and 6.03 ERA. Suck it, K-Rod. The middle part of the pen is a bunch of reclamation projects, including Brendan Donnelly, Derrick Turnbow and Eddie Guardado, and Kason Gabbard has a shot to be the long man in the pen, which could equal about 150 IP.
In 100 Words Or Less: The Rangers are going to be worse than last year because they’re going to give up as many–if not more–runs and score fewer. If the Rangers had even league average pitching, they’d contend for the AL West title, but instead they’re doomed to third or fourth, depending on how Seattle performs.
