April 2, 2009. In a decade, people will look back on that date as one that changed the football fortunes of the city of Chicago. The Bears packed up last season’s starting quarterback, Kyle Orton, first round picks in 2009 and 2010 and a third rounder in 2009 and sent it all to Denver for Jay Cutler, a Pro Bowl quarterback who grew up a Bear fan in a small town in Indiana. The time to start grading that trade is nearly upon us.
OFFENSIVE OVERVIEW:
Cutler posted gaudy numbers last year as a Bronco en route to that Pro Bowl appearance, finishing third in the league in passing yards (4,526), second in pass attempts (616), and seventh in touchdown passes (25). However, he was on a team that often relied on his arm to outscore their opponents. Partially as a result of all those slings, but also due to his risk-taking style borne in his self-confidence and powerful arm, Cutler finished second in interceptions thrown with 18. Chicago figures to run a significantly more conservative offense than what Denver did last year, so Cutler will be asked to win fewer games on his own, hopefully cutting down his picks. The most important of all number Cutler can post this season is 16, as in starting every game to keep Caleb Hanie and Brett Basanez wearing ballcaps and headsets.
Matt Forte had a tremendous rookie season for the Bears. The second-rounder from Tulane finished third in the NFL with 1,715 yards from scrimmage on 379 touches (fantasy football freakout note!). With Cutler taking snaps, there figure be more holes for Forte, giving him a chance to improve his 3.9 yards-per-carry average. Now twenty months removed from tearing his ACL, Kevin Jones is healthy and should lift some of the rushing burden from Forte’s shoulders. Forte had 316 of the team’s 407 carries by running backs (77.6 percent), but the team would like to get that down to around 60-65 percent of the workload with the bulk of the remainder going to Jones.
The biggest question mark on the Bears’ offense goes to the wide receiver group. Devin Hester leads the group after catching 51 passes last year. He will provide a deep threat combined with the cannon arm of Cutler, but his route-running and hands are still unproven. Cutler’s college teammate, Earl Bennett, will start opposite Hester and looks like a fair bet to revisit his college success despite catching zero passes as a rookie. Cutler has kept an eye on Bennett in preseason action, targeting him four times in the first 20 minutes of their second preseason game, netting a pair of catches and a pass interference penalty, and three times in a long scoring drive in Denver, connecting twice.
Unlike their wide receiver counterparts, the Bears’ tight ends are a known commodity. Greg Olsen has been promoted to the starting lineup and Desmond Clark is slotted to the #2 spot. The two combined for 95 catches last season, gaining 941 yards and tallying six scores. With Cutler having looked Tony Scheffler’s way a lot in Denver last season, Olsen could easily improve on last year’s 54 grabs and threaten to merit a Pro Bowl bid (yes, even with Jason Witten and Tony Gonzalez in the NFC).
Perhaps just as important as Cutler is the other addition the Bears made on April 2nd. Orlando Pace was signed as a free agent (one of three veterans to join the Bears’ offensive line this offseason) and will protect Cutler’s blindside. One concern of Pace’s game that showed itself during the preseason is an inability to handle speed rushers. Pace pushes last season’s first-round pick (and another Cutler college teammate), Chris Williams, to the right tackle spot. Olin Kreutz, a six-time Pro Bowler, will man the middle of the line again and be flanked by Roberto Garza on the right and former Carolina Panther Frank Omiyale, another free agent acquisition, on the left. Omiyale pushes Josh Beekman into a backup role along with another free agent acquisition, Kevin Shaffer, who started all but one game the last three seasons in Cleveland.
DEFENSIVE OVERVIEW:
The players on other line have a lot of familiar faces, but the group is expected to lift their play by the presence of a new face who will not suit up. Rod Marinelli was hired as the defensive line coach and is expected to help this group perform much like the premier Buccaneer units Marinelli guided in the early part of the decade. Tommie Harris had offseason surgery and is being brought along slowly, but will be joined in the middle by Anthony Adams, Marcus Harrison, and Jarron Gilbert. Adewale Ogunleye, Mark Anderson, and Alex Brown must bring the heat from the outside after tallying only a dozen sacks collectively last season. Israel Idonije will swing both inside and out for support.
The linebacker unit features mainstays Brian Urlacher and Lance Briggs. Urlacher reportedly has clean bill of health for the first time in three years (no back or neck issues) and Briggs will simply continue stacking tackles like cordwood. Pisa Tinoisamoa, who led the Rams in tackles last season, as well as in each of the 2004-2006 seasons, signed as a free agent and is the strong side linebacker. Hunter Hillenmeyer (the fourth and last former collegiate Commodore on the roster), who lost his starting role to the newcomer after coming off hernia surgery, has slid into the backup middle linebacker spot.
The defensive backs are a mixed bag. Charles Tillman, the Bears’ best cover corner, is coming back from injury and may not to be ready for the start of the season. Nathan Vasher, whose play has slipped since signing a large contract extension, ended each of the last two seasons on injured reserve and has only played in 12 games during that time. Zackary Bowman, Trumaine McBride, or Corey Graham will start if Tillman cannot answer the opening bell. Bowman impressed the coaching staff in camp, but suffered an injury of his own and is just starting to come back. The group is so depleted, the team signed Rod Hood the day after he got cut by Cleveland. The safety position is in need of players to step up and grab roles with good play. Danieal Manning is slated to start at free safety and Kevin Payne at strong safety. Manning has decent cover skills and should see significant time at the nickel spot while Payne is a hitter who recorded 89 tackles while leading the squad with four interceptions last year. Backing them up are Josh Bullocks, Craig Steltz, and rookie Al Afalava. Deep coverage will be an issue with this group, underlining the need for a resurgent pass rush from the front four.
SPECIAL TEAMS OVERVIEW:
The special teams units have been very good at during Lovie Smith’s tenure. While not having a strong leg (0-for-2 from 50 yards or more in his career), Robbie Gould is very accurate, having connected on 26-of-29 field goals (89.7 percent) last season and 110-of-128 (85.9 percent) in his career. Brad Maynard is back for his ninth season with the Bears after allowing only 36 of his 96 punts to be returned last year. Danieal Manning led the NFL with a 29.7-yard average on kickoff returns, including an 83-yard return for a score against the Saints. Devin Hester returned 32 punts and 31 kickoffs last season, but will not see duty on kickoffs this year.
2009 SCHEDULE:
at Green Bay
Pittsburgh
at Seattle
Detroit
bye
at Atlanta
at Cincinnati
Cleveland
Arizona
at San Francisco
Philadelphia
at Minnesota
St. Louis
Green Bay
at Baltimore
Minnesota
at Detroit
SCHEDULE ANALYSIS:
Panic attacks could be widespread by mid-September in the City of Broad Shoulders, as the Bears could very likely drop their opening two games. After that, the Bears have a couple of easier games to right the ship, followed by their bye. If Chicago can grab a road win in Atlanta, the Bears could be 5-2 heading into their home matchup with the defending NFC champions. That Arizona game starts a key stretch of four games, but if the Bears can win three of those games, including the first game against the Vikings, they will be sitting pretty coming into the homestretch. Green Bay and Baltimore should be the toughest tests of the final five, which should include a couple games where the Bears should be favored handily.
Optimistically, the Bears can win 12 games and the division title. Green Bay should be their strongest competition in the division with a healthy Ryan Grant to complement the blossoming Aaron Rodgers and a defense that has looked dominant thus far in the preseason. The other thing that helps with their two matchups against Minnesota is that the games are in Weeks 12 and 16. While it is not guaranteed to happen, Brett Favre’s tailspin last year started late in the season and a repeat of that would certainly aid the Bears’ postseason chase. This 12-4 scenario has the Bears at 10-2 NFC mark (a split with Green Bay and losses to Pittsburgh, Philadelphia, and Baltimore). That sounds like a division title and postseason bye with the possibility of hosting the NFC title tilt.
There are, however, many things that have to go the Bears’ way to reach these heights. Cutler must mesh with his receiving corps (this has been beaten into the ground by the Chicago papers, going so far as to overanalyze the comments between Cutler and Hester regarding an interception in the pre-season game against the Bills and providing daily stats in 7-on-7 drills) or defenses won’t respect Forte. The veteran offensive line group, which features three new starters, must get on the same page and hold up through the full season. Tommie Harris must be healthy and a force as part of a resurgent defensive line that consistently gets pressure on opposing quarterbacks to lower the heat on the defensive backfield. Those defensive backs, particularly the safeties, have to avoid being torched on a regular basis. Chicago can probably withstand one of these not working out well and be in the postseason hunt (the most likely shortcoming is the defensive backs). If two or more of these keys are prolonged issues, Lovie Smith will have to go back to the drawing board after a third straight season of watching the playoffs after coaching in the Super Bowl (he will not get fired, as he is under contract for two more years after this coming season and the Bears are still cheap).