Sportsfrog.com

A couple things off the top before getting to the first round predictions:

This mock is as things currently stand, which I expect won’t last through the draft, as I fully expect Minnesota to make a trade up to #2 to snag Ricky Rubio. The question is just what Memphis will ask for in return and will Minnesota just say “the heck with you and your ridiculous demands” and call Oklahoma City to see if they’re interested in dropping down a couple spots (as Stephen Curry and James Harden would both blend nicely with what the Thunder already have). Also, feel free to drop by the Swamp and check out the “2009 NBA Draft” thread, which recently got bumped and should be getting more action over the next couple days. There will likely be a new thread for the draft itself tomorrow. Onto the picks…

1. Los Angeles Clippers – Blake Griffin, F, Oklahoma
Griffin is a no-brainer. The Clippers will be peddling other parts of their frontcourt rotation (Marcus Camby, Chris Kaman, Zach Randolph) to make playing time for Griffin. Ideally, Randolph and his monstrous contract get sent out of town, but Camby’s expiring deal and Kaman’s youth and more reasonable (although longer) contract make them better options. A swap with the Bulls with Kaman and Kirk Hinrich as the centerpieces could be beneficial to both squads, with Hinrich providing backup minutes at both guard spots, as well as injury protection behind Baron Davis.

2. Memphis Grizzlies – Hasheem Thabeet, C, Connecticut
Between Ricky Rubio’s threats of not getting out of his contract in Europe and the Grizzlies’ backcourt of Mike Conley and OJ Mayo, Memphis opts for the big man on the board with the lowest floor. There is not a whole lot of upside with Thabeet, but if he can max out as the second coming of Dikembe Mutombo and clean up for the defensive mistakes on the outside, it could turn into a very good pick.

3. Oklahoma City Thunder – Ricky Rubio, G, Spain
Russell Westbrook is not a true point guard, but Rubio is. Westbrook offers enough size and athleticism to defend shooting guards, so this should work in the long term. Rubio may not be ready to go from the jump, but Westbrook can still play the point in the interim and Thabo Sefolosha showed enough after coming over late in the season to stay in the starting lineup until Rubio is ready for the keys to the car.

4. Sacramento Kings – Jrue Holliday, G, UCLA
Sacramento is in a difficult spot here. Any of the remaining true point guards are a reach, the shooting guards are redundant with the best player on their roster (Kevin Martin), and they already have a couple high picks sunk into their frontcourt. As a result, getting a point guard with a lot of upside to pair with Martin down the line makes the most sense. Holliday also has a very nice size (6’4”), wingspan (6’7”), and combination to build on.

5. Minnesota Timberwolves – James Harden, G, Arizona State
Harden, who is now garnering a comparison to Paul Pierce, would fit in nicely with Al Jefferson and Kevin Love doing the heavy lifting down low. Harden is also only 19 years old and would be a very nice building block for the future Timberwolves’ backcourt along with…

6. Minnesota Timberwolves – Stephen Curry, G, Davidson
Curry will still need to develop his point guard skills, add strength, and overhaul his defensive game to adjust to the NBA. That said, Curry’s marksmanship will open things up for the big boys down low and it seems like a relatively simple call for the second of the Timberwolves’ four first-round picks.

7. Golden State Warriors – Jordan Hill, F, Arizona
Hill is not a polished player, but he is the best remaining big man, once again a primary need for the Warriors. With Andris Biedrins, Anthony Randolph, Rony Turiaf, and Brandan Wright already on the roster, Hill could fit in as another energy and hustle guy as his game develops.

8. New York Knicks – Jonny Flynn, G, Syracuse
Mike D’Antoni needs a true point guard to run his uptempo system and Flynn is a good match. While undersized, Flynn is still strong and has the quickness and point guard skills to work in that system. While Flynn is not a great outside shooter, he has shown the ability to hit from range and should develop consistency as he matures. His leadership skills should also help the Knicks.

9. Toronto Raptors – Tyreke Evans, G, Memphis
The Raptors need an influx of athleticism and get it with this quick two-guard whose size (6’5”) and wingspan (6’11”) enable him to make in impact in the backcourt. Evans also is an excellent scorer going to the basket, which may help keep some pressure of Chris Bosh and encourage him to stay when his contract expires at the end of next season. Evans does lack shooting range, though, which will limit his minutes on the court.

10. Milwaukee Bucks – Brandon Jennings, G, Italy
Milwaukee’s trade of Richard Jefferson was mostly a salary dump to enable themselves to make moves to keep either Charlie Villanueva or Ramon Sessions. With this being a deep draft in point guards, Villanueva gets the first offer and Jennings is taken to be the point guard of the future. He has tremendous potential and can caddy behind Luke Ridnour for a year before taking over the reins. While Jennings will need to bulk up, his speed will allow him to penetrate on offense while his body matures.

11. New Jersey Nets – DeJuan Blair, F, Pittsburgh
It’s a bit of a reach here, but the Nets pick up some low-post scoring and toughness to complement Brook Lopez, last year’s first round pick. Blair will likely not contribute too much as s rookie due to the adjustment to the pro game, but should bring both of those attributes in time.

12. Charlotte Bobcats – Demar DeRozan, G, USC
DeRozan gets to go to a situation where he won’t be expected to deliver major help right away. By filling a spot behind Gerald Wallace and Raja Bell, DeRozan will have a chance to develop for a couple years and hopefully expand his game to match his athleticism.

13. Indiana Pacers – Earl Clark, F, Louisville
Clark can do a little bit of everything at the small forward spot. With Danny Granger as their premier player and Troy Murphy each under contract for two more seasons, the Pacers can develop him to play at both spots, then eventually take over alongside Granger at the four.

14. Phoenix Suns – Jeff Teague, G, Wake Forest
Teague is a bit of a combo guard who can play the point, but the Suns have some experience with that kind of player with Leandro Barbosa on the roster. Teague will be tutored by Steve Nash as a rookie (and possibly a couple more years if the Suns extend the former two-time MVP), which will help him transition into the point guard of the future in the desert.

15. Detroit Pistons – James Johnson, F, Wake Forest
Johnson has a nice variety of skills and can play both forward spots, but will likely see the bulk of his minutes at the power forward spot in Detroit. He’ll need to work on his body, but it seems like a good match for the Pistons, who still have quality players on the perimeter.

16. Chicago Bulls – B.J. Mullens, C, Ohio State
It’s another year, another big man for the Bulls. Mullens is raw and a project, but can be broken in slowly by the Bulls, who have Joakim Noah and Tyrus Thomas in front of him.

17. Philadelphia 76ers – Eric Maynor, G, Virginia Commonwealth
The 76ers get a young point guard to come in and replace Andre Miller, should they end up not re-signing him. Maynor is a very good defender and likes to have the ball in his hands in important situations, so he is a nice fit with a team that has a couple established offensive options in Andre Iguodala and Elton Brand (should Brand return to health).

18. Minnesota Timberwolves – Austin Daye, F, Gonzaga
With their third choice in the first round, the Wolves elect to stop the slide of Daye, a multi-talented small forward. Daye is skilled and has great height and length, but a lack of bulk and questionable motor make him a major question mark. With Ryan Gomes and a rehabbing Corey Brewer on the roster, Minnesota can take a chance on him and let him develop.

19. Atlanta Hawks – Ty Lawson, G, North Carolina
Mike Bibby is a free agent and the Hawks are trying to bring him back in the fold, but the Hawks will need a point guard of the future, as Acie Law IV has not shown much in his first two years in the league. Lawson is quick and has shown the ability to set up his teammates in college, which should translate nicely to a team with Joe Johnson, Josh Smith, Al Horford, and Marvin Williams already in the fold.

20. Utah Jazz – Gerald Henderson, G, Duke
Henderson is an excellent defender and already has an NBA-ready body, so he should fit nicely into Jerry Sloan’s plans. Henderson needs work on his shooting, but should be able to make enough of a contribution on the defensive end to threaten Ronnie Brewer and C.J. Miles for minutes in the Utah rotation (or perhaps make one of them expendable in a trade down the line).

21. New Orleans Hornets – Terrence Williams, G, Louisville
Williams is a multi-talented player who will help fill in at the swingman spots for the Hornets. He also provides athleticism, which is something the Hornets need in that spot, as Peja Stojakovic, James Posey, Rasual Butler and Morris Peterson are all getting up there in age.

22. Dallas Mavericks – Darren Collison, G, UCLA
The Mavericks need to do something to soften the blow of the departure of Jason Kidd, who his now a free agent. While the Mavericks are talking about bringing the future Hall of Famer back, they need a replacement to keep Jason Terry in his role as instant offense off the bench. Collison is very quick and is an excellent on the ball defender who also shot the ball very well in college, so he could be a steal this late in the first round.

23. Sacramento Kings – Omri Casspi, F, Israel
Casspi is a tough player who also has good athleticism and a solid mid-range game. He can continue playing abroad and stay off the Kings’ payroll while developing his stregth and game.

24. Portland Trailblazers – Tyler Hansborough, F, North Carolina
Hansborough can come in and add an element of toughness to the Blazers. With a still-developing developing Greg Oden and LaMarcus Aldridge as a more perimeter-oriented power forward, Hansborough would add a scrapper underneath who can go all-out for 15 minutes a night and provide a different style of player to the Blazers’ mix.

25. Oklahoma City Thunder – Nick Calathes, G, Florida
With Calathes having already signed a contract to play in Greece, drafting him gives Oklahoma City his rights and they can let him develop his body and game in Europe or buy him out. Calathes is a very versatile player with great point guard skills for a 6’5” player. He would eventually slot as a third guard who can back up both Rubio and Westbrook.

26. Chicago Bulls – Sam Young, F, Pittsburgh
One of the older players in this draft class, Young is ready to go and should be able to contribute for the Bulls right away. He can back up Luol Deng at the small forward position from the get-go.

27. Memphis Grizzlies – Jeff Pendergraph, F, Arizona State
Pendergraph is not a showy player, but has one of the best college resumes in this draft class. While not an exceptional athlete, at 6’10” and 240, this four-year star is an excellent low-post scorer and rebounder, mostly due to a strong work ethic.

28. Minnesota Timberwolves – Jonas Jerebko, F, Sweden
Jerebko is an interesting prospect who can remain in Europe and develop his game while remaining the Timberwolves’ property. Besides, the Timberwolves have added enough youth to their roster for one night.

29. Los Angeles Lakers – Derrick Brown, F, Xavier
A 6’9” forward, Brown has the skills to play at either forward spot and can do a lot on offense. His ability to shoot from range from the power forward position makes him a nice fit for the triangle offense.

30. Cleveland Cavaliers – Wayne Ellington, G, North Carolina
Ellington is an excellent athlete and can shoot well from outside. Unfortunately, with his defensive deficiencies and the Cavs’ depth, he’ll have to develop from the bench.

—Percy Harvin’s draft stock falling? Rumors can be vicious, and this is a devil’s brew:

Still, Pro Football Weekly recently polled NFL executives about the riskiest picks in this coming draft and Harvin was selected as the unanimous winner because of “coachability, a posse of hangers-on, his lack of respect for authority and drug usage.”

—The Browns are apparently kicking the tires on Missouri wide receiver Jeremy Maclin, leading the Cleveland Plain Dealer to wonder that is to complement Braylon Edwards or replace him.

—Why are passing poor 49ers reported not to be interested in Matthew Stafford? His talk with their team psychologist. Si.com’s Austin Murphy looks deeper and comes to a reasonable conclusion: It is the 49ers who are insane.

—Don Banks with 10 players flying below the radar who have a chance to someday go all Wes Welker/Willie Parker on the league.

—Mock drafts? Yes: Here (Don Banks stubbornly keeps giving Jason Smith to the Lions), here (five mock drafts collected at sportsline.com, all giving Stafford to the Lions), and here (scout.com for foxsports.com giving Mark Sanchez to the Lions at #1).

13 days and we will know for sure.

The Jay Culter deal has thrown any mocks previous to the deal into the category of ancient history. A quick swing around the mocking world reveals:

—Don Banks’ guess stubbornly gives Jason Smith to the Lions as #1 (I think Detroit is going Matt Stafford) and gives Denver two defensive lineman with its 1st round bounty.

The Swamp’s timgod99 has updated his latest mock as well, and it remains a solid read. His dropping Everette Brown from the 1st round flies in the face of many of the draft guesses I have seen. Sadly, his guessing BJ Raji to the Bengals even after the positive drug test is all too probable.

Enjoy:

In case you missed it, some guy named Cutler was traded to the Bears yesterday. That one trade will have a dramatic affect on the first round of the NFL Draft. The most dramatic of those changes is the fact that the trade makes both Matthew Stafford and Mark Sanchez sure fire first round picks, where before I thought both were destined for somewhere between picks 10-20. So, let’s look at how this trade shifts the picks in the first round.

ROUND ONE

1 Detroit — Matthew Stafford, QB, Georgia – Previously = Jason Smith, Baylor — No longer able to wait at #20 and hope one of the three first round QB’s falls to them, or move up into the teens to get one of them, the Lions will be forced to get Stafford here.

2 St. Louis — Eugene Monroe, OT, Virginia – Previously = Eugene Monroe, Virginia — Still need a tackle, but now will have their choice of Monroe or Jason Smith.

3 Kansas City — Aaron Curry, LB, Wake Forrest – Previously = Aaron Curry, Wake Forrest — Still many holes to fill, will still take the consensus best player on the board in Curry.

4 Seattle — Jason Smith, OT, Baylor – Previously = BJ Raji, Boston College — A positive drug test for Raji at the combine plus the availability of Smith/Monroe here leads the Hawks to switch picks and grab a tackle.

5 Cleveland — Brian Orakpo, DE/LB, Texas – Previously = Brian Orakpo, Texas — If they stay here, it’s Orakpo. But I think this is the first spot teams will try and trade into for Sanchez.

6 Cincinnati — BJ Raji, DT, Boston College – Previously = Andre Smith, Alabama — It would be hard for Marv to pass up the combination of a very good DT along with some one who is already versed in violating the rules. Also could trade out to a team that wants Sanchez.

7 Oakland — Michael Crabtree, WR, Texas Tech – Previously = Michael Crabtree, Texas Tech — They could use Andre Smith here, but Old Al will still take the guy who can run under a 60 yard pass.

8 Jacksonville — Vontae Davis, DB, Illinois – Previously = Vontae Davis, Illinois — Andre Smith will be tempting here, but Jacksonville is in so much need of defensive help, I think they stay with Davis.

9 Green Bay — Aaron Maybin, DE/LB, Penn State – Previously = Aaron Maybin, Penn State — Same as above. They need to focus on the defensive side of the ball, and a 3-4 rush LB is the call.

10 San Francisco — Andre Smith, OT, Alabama – Previously = Jeremy Maclin, Missouri — Smith falls to 10 and the Niners rejoice.

11 Buffalo — Michael Oher, OT, Ole Miss – Previously = Brian Cushing, USC — With trouble beginning to brew big time between the team and LT Jason Peters, Buffalo could look to land his replacement.

12 Denver — Mark Sanchez, QB, USC – Previously = Rey Maualuga, USC — Even though I see Sanchez falling here if the top 11 teams stay in their draft slot, I do not see that happening. If Denver wants Sanchez they’ll have to get up to get down so to speak.

13 Washington — Rey Maualuga, LB, USC – Previously = Michael Oher, Ole Miss — With the top four tackles gone and Eben Britton/William Beatty too much of a reach here, the Skins move on to another need and add to a tough run D.

14 New Orleans — Malcolm Jenkins, DB, Ohio State – Previously = Malcolm Jenkins, Ohio State — Still the biggest need in the Big Easy, though Cushing would be a tempting idea to help the 17th ranked run D in 2008.

15 Houston — Robert Ayers, DE, Tennessee – Previously = Robert Ayers, Tennessee — Could take a look at Maclin, but in the end I think they stay with Ayers

16 San Diego — Jeremy Maclin, WR, Missouri – Previously = Percy Harvin — Another ripple effect of the Cutler trade sees Maclin fall from 10-16 and Harvin further.

17 New York Jets — Josh Freeman, QB, Kansas State – Previously = Matthew Stafford, Georgia — Maybe the person who benefits most outside of Stafford going from #17 to #1 is Freeman finding a way into the first round as a team who misses out on Sanchez will take Freeman.

18 Denver — Brian Cushing, LB, USC – Previously (Chicago) = Darius Butler, UConn — After getting their quarterback early in round one, Denver will turn to fixing their defense.

19 Tampa Bay — Peria Jerry, DT, Ole Miss – Previously = Mark Sanchez, USC — SOL in the race for a round one QB, Tampa is in a position to take the best player available to help their middle of the road run D from 2008.

20 Detroit from Dallas — Ebon Bitton, OT, ARI – Previously = Tyson Jackson, LSU — With taking Stafford instead of Smith at #1. DET has to go Tackle here.

21 Philadelphia — William Beatty, OT, UConn – Previously = Donald Brown, UConn — With only one 1st round tackle left on the board the Eagles will be forced to reach here if they want Beatty, who fits their need and their offense perfectly.

22 Minnesota — Percy Harvin, WR, Florida – Previously = Darrius Heyward-Bey, Maryland — Harvin offers Minnesota a more complete reciever and a weapon on kick/punt returns.

23 New England — Tyson Jackson, DE, LSU – Previously = Everette Brown, Florida State — If Jackson slips, he is a better fit in NE because of his style of play and ability to move around in the scheme.

24 Atlanta — Clay Matthews, LB, USC – Previously = James Laurinaitis, Ohio State — Having a real good Pro Day this past week helped him solidify himself as one of the top outside backers in the draft. He is a much better fit for ATL.

25 Miami — Darius Butler, CB, UConn- Previously = Peria Jerry, Ole Miss — With Jerry already taken, I think the Tuna stays D here. The Dolphins gave up 227 ypg in the air last year, and Butler may be the best true corner in this draft but needs some time to develop.

26 Baltimore — Darrius Heyward-Bey, WR, Maryland – Previously = Eben Britton, Arizona — All the tackles are off the board, so Baltimore takes the local kid and tries to give Joe Flacco some weapons on offense.

27 Indianapolis — James Laurinaitis, ILB, Ohio State – Previously = Ziggy Hood, Missouri — With the second best interior line backer still there, I think the Colts are more likely to take the player with the pedigree from a conference that is known for hard nose football over a guy who may be one dimensional.

28 Philadelphia from Carolina — Knowshon Moreno, RB, Georgia – Previously = William Beatty, UConn — Filling the same needs just in a different order. With nobody looking for a RB between picks 21 & 28 the Eagles can afford to wait a bit longer to pick up their new tailback.

29 New York Giants — Hakeem Nicks, WR, North Carolina – Previously = Knowshon Moreno — With the Plaxico Burress situation still in limbo, the Giants need someone to throw the ball too. They’ve had flirtations with Cleveland about Braylon Edwards, so they know they are in trouble out wide.

30 Tennessee — Ziggy Hood, DT, Missouri – Previously = Hakeem Nicks, North Carolina — Need to replace the loss of Albert Haynesworth. They are also kicking the tires on Torry Holt, so WR may not be a need come April 25th.

31 Arizona — Chris Wells, RB, Ohio State – Previously = Brandon Pettigrew, Oklahoma State– More than likely will let Edgerrin James go at some point this spring/summer. Doubtful they want to ride Tim Hightower as their sole back not knowing if he can transition into a featured back. They also lost JJ Arrington. (But is that really a loss?) Wells will give then a tough runner and a good pass blocker.

32 Pittsburgh — Max Unger, Oregon – Previously = Max Unger, Oregon — Still need depth along the offensive line which Unger provides. May be tempted by Everette Brown, but O-Line is more pressing.

Falling out of the first round:

– Donald Brown, RB, UConn
– Brandon Pettigrew, TE, Oklahoma State
– Everette Brown, Florida State

Its been a quick minute or so since I have taken a spin around the nets to see what the latest mock drafts are looking like. With pro days for the brand name prospects having been largely accomplished, let’s see where the guessing is drifting:

—Don Banks at si.com from back on March 12 sees Jason Smith as the likely #1 overall to the Lions. That is in line with the more recent reporting on the matter.

—Scouts.com at foxsports.com has a nice rundown of the latest from the pro day workouts. Their latest mock draft (v. 5.0) is dated, not been a new one since March 1st, so an update should be along any day now.

—sportsline.com continues to helpfully collect their mocks in one place, four to review here with the most recent one updated as of today. Three of those four efforts are not buying the Detroit-coaches-love-them-some-Jason-Smith chatter and give Detroit Matthew Stafford. I will say this, if Stafford comes up short as a pro, it won’t be because he was stupid.

—We have launched our annual (really, a tradition unlike any other, even the Masters) mock guessing game for the NFL draft in the Swamp. It’s a collective effort, with just the right amount of serious wild-ass guessing necessary to make it entertaining. Feel free to look in on it as it unfolds over the next month or so.