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I don’t feel completely burned by the Ravens’ success this postseason ( I was at least behind them at Miami ), but last week’s win at Tennessee is still a little hard to stomach. So many things had to go one way for that game to turn out the way it did. The turnovers, the penalties, the no-delay-of-game call, and still a narrow 13-10 victory.

The Ravens were outgained 211 to 391, averaged only 1.7 yards per rush, and held the ball for just 26 minutes.

But live on they do, so here are the Baltimore Ravens, into their 18th straight week without rest. They list 17 players currently on IR. 12 more on the injury report. And those are big names too. Both starting WRs, their starting TE, their most effective RB, their blocking FB, three of their four starting LBs, the best FS in the game, their best cover CB.

“It’s very hard for a good NFL team to beat another good NFL team three times in a single season.”

It is, but it’s not impossible. And having a team like this, unrested and unhealthy, against a healthy-as-can-be group like the Steelers, is how it can be done.

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Forget about Arizona’s success over the last two weeks running the football. That era is over. The Cards will need screen passes and other short, creative routes to get them through first down. But only that can take them so far, and so the Cards’ best chance really comes down to how well they manage second / third and longs.

The first time these two played, the Eagles were effective with their zone blitzes. But on a surprisingly high number of plays, they also chose to drop 7 into coverage and rush four. This was presumably done to manage how much ground they were going to give Fitzgerald, but it also showed that the Eagles could get pressure on Warner by just rushing four linemen.

If Philadelphia can do that again, on top of their always effective zone blitz schemes, they should be packing for Tampa by the end of the day.

For the Eagles, they will need to again understand that Arizona’s first down is like everyone else’s third down. To an extent, the Cards’ drives and possessions are dictated by how well they do on first down. Arizona throws a lot there, and the Eagles should run-blitz those downs with a lot of different fronts. After that, the Eagles can go back to what they did in the first game on those second / third and long downs.

When the ball is with the Eagles, we’ll again all be watching how well they perform in the red zone. When Philly converted their first quarter INT of Manning last week into an early touchdown, I knew it was going to be a good day for the Eagles. During the regular season, 63.6% ( 35/55 ) of Cards opponents’ red zone possessions ended up as touchdowns. During the postseason, that number is 62.5% ( 5/8 ). They ranked 28th in that category during the regular season.

The red zone, especially for Philly – a team that has produced top numbers and ratings all season but has been held down by poor conversion of red zone chances and key short yardage plays – is where their road to Tampa runs through.

Eagles -3

I’ve thought about a lot of things this morning. I’ve thought about writing these two picks pieces in latin. I’ve thought about that 22 year old from last night that I should have talked to. I’ve thought about Obama. But inevitably, I can’t stop thinking that before last night, I was probably going to take the Eagles and the Chargers today. And I can’t stop thinking about how so not a good an idea that seems to be this morning.

But in looking back, I think I’d be more devastated this morning if the Ravens had won in the way that they did and Arizona DIDN’T completely destroy the Panthers.

“If Baltimore wins this football game, I will be more stunned than if the Cards beat the Panthers, the Eagles score five red zone touchdowns, and William Wallace shoots fire from his arse. Combined.”

That’s what I wrote yesterday. At least I can sit back this morning and say that I’m still most stunned that the Titans found a way to lose that game. If only I could find video online of Keith Bulluck throwing shit around.

Now before I have to go and watch my Braveheart DVD, I’m going to pick both games today. Laugh all you want.

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Since there’s a pretty wide consensus that the Panthers are going to win this game (I’m looking at you, Keyshawn Johnson), I’m mostly going to focus here on if the Panthers will cover.

Last week, when I picked the Cards to beat the Falcons I closed with the following statement:

The Cardinals special teams aren’t playoff worthy, their pass defense is very susceptible, and they can’t run the football against most defenses. But they will move the ball on the ground against Atlanta and I just think all of that will hurt them next week, when they are 10 point underdogs to either the Panthers or the Giants.

I was really only half joking when I said they would be 10 point dogs, but here we are with a Saturday night game in Carolina and the Cardinals facing that very point spread.

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I usually have an easier time picking Divisional Weekend games than this. But these are some tough matchups.

Except really this one. For this game, I really haven’t thought too much about. I like the Titans. I’ve been following them all year. They’re playing at home, with, really, a few weeks of rest, against a rookie quarterback and rookie head coach.

That’s all I need. That’s a game changer. If Baltimore wins this football game, I will be more stunned than if the Cards beat the Panthers, the Eagles score five red zone touchdowns, and William Wallace shoots fire from his arse. Combined.

One note to ponder: In a close game, scoring touchdowns will be key. Here are some red zone stats:

Tennessee’s offense was the 3rd best rated red zone touchdown unit (62.2%).
Baltimore ranked 2nd in red zone defense touchdown rate (35.9%).

Baltimore’s offense was the 25th best rated red zone touchdown unit (47.1%).
Tennessee ranked 7th in red zone defense touchdown rate (46.5%).

Of course, the week five matchup between these two is being analyzed to its fullest. But remember that game took place in Baltimore. And it was three months ago. The Titans have been challenged to develop their passing game since then. For a little indication of this, look at Tennessee’s week 16 AFC South clinching 31-14 win at home versus the Steelers where Collins completed 20 of 29 for 216 yards.

Ed Reed is good, Joe Flacco is good, Haloti Ngata is, well, fun to watch drop back in coverage.

But no team is more committed to protecting the quarterback than are the Titans. They have a solid blocking scheme, sliding the line strong side and using a TEs and backs to pick up the extra rushers. And its a top priority.

Swamper Jerloma made a good point last week (and a few times before) about the Ravens. They are a yard dog bully, and love it when they can rule their field. But when someone actually challenges their physicality and aggressiveness, they can lose a bit of their swagger.

Titans -3

Playoff or not, the two best teams are playing football tonight for the National Championship. The Gators, who opened as 3 point favorites, are laying 5.5 and 6 points to the Sooners. I suspect that’s largely due to the perception of Harvin’s health and the performance of the Big 12 in Bowls this season.

SI’s Stewart Mandel writes:

“If you’ve been watching the bowl games, you may have noticed most of the Big 12 teams’ scores have gone down considerably upon facing outside competition. And the only league team whose defense truly shined was Texas — the one team to beat the Sooners.”

Really Stewart? Because I saw Texas Tech put up 34 impressive points and 468 total yards against Ole Miss. And Texas’ defense shined against tOSU? Chris Wells averaged 6.6 yards per carry before he got hurt. Todd Boeckman averaged 10 yards per pass attempt and should have played more. They forced no turnovers against the Buckeyes offense and if tOSU had a pulse, they would have put up 40 points against the effort that UT showed.

The Big 12 team that has shined is Texas Tech. That game featured a Big 12 offense scoring points against a SEC defense (or more specifically, Graham Harrell showing he’s the best QB in the country, but I’ll be writing about that later on in the week).

The question still left unanswered is, ‘can a Big 12 defense hold things together long enough to not lose?’ Texas Tech’s could not. Texas’ did, but only against a really bad Ohio State offense. Oklahoma’s should be the best of the Big 12, but will it be enough?

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In a battle of two stout defenses, you take the team that can do more things on offense and the team that has an advantage at the quarterback position.

Before the regular season started, I liked the progress that Tavaris Jackson had shown. He looked more confident in the pocket and was making plays this preseason with both his arm and his legs. Then he got hurt late in the preseason, the Vikings started the season with two close losses, he got hurt some more and then lost his job.

The injury he suffered in the preseason to his knee really knocked him off his game. The player he was those first two weeks was not the same quarterback I saw in the preseason.

After taking over for the Vikings in place of the injured Gus Frerrote, Jackson led his Vikings to victories in three of their last four games. In those four games, he’s shown he’s back to the form he was showing early in the preseason. I think the 2009 season poses good things for him.

But now he’s making his first playoff start against a team that is going to contain the run and blitz the passer. Not a good recipe.

The Eagles run defense will play the Vikings run game much in the same way we saw the Cardinals defense play the Falcons yesterday. They will load up the front and control each gap, protecting against the frequent cutback runs. That will then force much of the Vikings success onto Jackson’s shoulders and legs.

Which, again, isn’t such a bad thing. But a quarterback’s first playoff game is almost always filled with rookie-ish mistakes.

Again, Football Outsiders leads the way in game previews:

“Philadelphia is the better team here, and most of the Eagles’ weaknesses are matched by the Vikings. Philadelphia offense struggles in the red zone? Minnesota’s is worse. Philly had some troubles on third-and-short? So did Minnesota, and both teams have played better in that situation over the last few weeks. Philadelphia’s offense ranks 24th in late and close situations? Well, Minnesota’s is 26th. Philadelphia’s offense is better at home (11th in DVOA compared to 21st on the road) but Minnesota’s offense was actually better on the road (16th in DVOA compared to 27th at home).”

When this week’s playoff matchups came out last week, there was a lot of talk about how all four teams were favored. Back then, I wrote in the swamp that I could see both of the Saturday road favorites losing and the two Sunday favs winning. No reason to deviate from that now. Based mostly on experience at quarterback, I like the Eagles in a close one here.

Eagles -3

In picking the two games yesterday, I made two important notes that I find myself having justify going against now for this Ravens – Dolphins game.

For one, we’ve got a rookie quarterback playing on the road and secondly, we’ve got a wildcard team trying to beat another at home for the second time in the same season.

So let’s look at each of these. First, with Matt Ryan, I made a case to say that the Cardinals defense would focus on stopping the run and force the Falcons out of their comfort zone on offense. Therefore, the game, I believed, rested in large part on Ryan’s ability and opportunity to put up big numbers.

So to say that the whole rookie quarterback issue was an important factor was justified. But with the Ravens, that doesn’t seem so much the case. While the Falcons identity all season has been running (and there so, offense), the Ravens identity is as always, defense. It’s not enough for the Dolphins to simply say, shut down the run and we’ll have a good chance to win.

With that laid out, two factors are established on why I’m taking Baltimore here. The Ravens defense was not only one of the few that slowed the Miami version of the Wildcat, but they were also the first. They did so because their defense creates matchup problems for an offense – much in the same way the Wildcat creates matchup problems for a defense.

This defense is again up there among the best of all time. Baltimore gave up more than 13 points in a game just five times all season. And even in those five games, the Ravens won two. Aside from their week 11 meltdown against the Giants, the Ravens rush defense surrendered 100 yards on the ground just one other time – Week 17 against the Jags. Baltimore will take away what the Miami defense does best, and that almost always is a roadmap to success.

On the other side of the ball, the Ravens pose mismatch problems for the Dolphins too. The Football Outsiders preview spends most of its time talking about how the Miami defense revolves around the pass rush of Joey Porter and how the Ravens are prepared to address that.

“It’s possible that one of these teams could win the battle of Joey Porter and still lose the war, but it’s not likely. So much of the Dolphins’ defense is based upon Porter and his ability to get a pass rush and/or attract blockers in the process. While Dolphins corners Will Allen and Andre Goodman have had a superficially better year, a lot of that is the improved pass rush as compared to a year ago. If Flacco can identify where the blitz is coming from and get time in the pocket, the Miami secondary is of little concern.”

Chad Pennington’s 288 yards in week seven against the Ravens scares me a bit. He’s the kind of quarterback that can beat this defense with confident throws into tight spaces. But this game seems pretty straight forward. Baltimore’s game will be to protect their young QB by keeping things close for the first half. They matchup well on both sides of the ball against Miami. Too well.

Ravens -3

With 9:16 left in the fourth quarter at Arrowhead, the Chargers had just failed on a fourth and two attempt at the Chiefs 39 yard line. They were down two scores and were about to give the ball back to Kansas City. A loss meant the official elimination from the playoffs, but really, their hopes were pretty dim. After the Broncos had beaten the Chiefs the week before, all Denver needed was one more win in their final three games to clinch the AFC West.

Essentially, the Chargers were being left for dead. Up until that point, Philip Rivers – the only consistent offensive weapon for the Chargers this season – had under 200 yards passing, no touchdowns, one interception and a lost fumble.

As we know, San Diego got the ball back on their own 11 yard line with 4:55 left and lumbered 89 yards in 15 plays against a prevent defense to score six points. They recovered the onside kick with 1:11 left and on that ensuing first play from scrimmage – made the playoffs. It was a 42 yard laser from Rivers to Vincent Jackson. And it just seemed to turn everything around.
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The conventional wisdom with this game seems to be: the Cards can only pass and Atlanta’s biggest weakness is against the pass but the Falcons are a much more rounded team and will win on the road despite the fact that rookie QBs can’t win a road playoff game.

But here’s the truth: Atlanta needs Matt Ryan to have a big game to win this game and Atlanta’s run defense is probably more of a weakness for them right now than any other part of their game. In looking at the Falcons last five games – four of them wins – I was stunned to see how many yards they were giving up on the ground. Below is a table of those five games:

To me, that’s a lot of yards to be giving up in games you’re winning. It’s important for Arizona to follow what the Saints did (5 of New Orleans’ first 6 offensive plays were run) in order to keep Atlanta’s safeties honest.

I suspect Mike Smith’s Falcons defense will continue to allow teams nothing over the top and leave plenty of underneath stuff open (Smith came from Jacksonville, where his defenses regularly gave the Colts deep game fits).

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