ATLANTA HAWKS
ADDITIONS: G Jamal Crawford, F/C Joe Smith, G Jeff Teague
SUBTRACTIONS: C David Andersen, G Speedy Claxton, C Solomon Jones, G Acie Law
STARTERS: PG – Mike Bibby, SG – Joe Johnson, SF – Marvin Williams, PF – Josh Smith, C – Al Horford
ROTATION: G Jamal Crawford, G/F Maurice Evans, F/C Zaza Pachulia, F/C Joe Smith, G Jeff Teague
OUTLOOK: The Hawks have improved their win total in each of the last four seasons and reached the postseason in each of their last two campaigns. That is particularly positive for two reasons – the continuity of three free agents being brought back as part of seven rotation players returning and the relatively young core of the team (Joe Smith is the only player expected to get regular minutes over the age of 31). What remains to be seen is if the team can take another step forward and get to the conference finals.
Joe Johnson is the leading man of this cast, averaging over 20 points per game during each of his four seasons in Atlanta. Mike Bibby returns to the point guard slot on a fair contract (three years, $18 million), but unfortunately is not bringing better defense with him. Continuing to hit 39 percent from three will help alleviate his defensive inadequacies. Marvin Williams is a solid complementary player, but further developing his outside shot and improving his rebounding would help. Third-year man Al Horford is a rock in the pivot, a modern-day P.J. Brown, but could do more if the team asked. Josh Smith is an enigma. If he could play all 82 games close to the level that he is capable, he would be a first-team All-NBA player. Of course, in the land without unicorns, he is an erratic player who is in love with his weak jump shot and indifferent much of the time. His inability to harness his natural gifts keep and work to achieve what he is capable of doing prevent the Hawks from moving up to the next level.
The addition of Jamal Crawford gives the Hawks the ability to bring in an additional ballhandler or rest Joe Johnson without a dropoff in scoring punch. Crawford, however, still does not have much of a conscience on defense or willingness to play defense. It will be interesting to see how he responds to the change from being a freewheeling Warrior to a bench supporter behind the Hawks’ best player. Maurice Evans comes back for more work at the defensive stopper slot and Jeff Teague is an undersized two, which is not that bad here, as he can be teamed with Johnson or Crawford in the backcourt and not handle the ball or be expected to run the offense. The addition of Joe Smith to Zaza Pachulia gives the Hawks a second big man who can be trusted with significant bench minutes. Hopefully for the Hawks, Smith’s blue-collar effort and attitude can rub off on Smith. It also does not hurt to add his playoff experience to the mix.
CHARLOTTE BOBCATS
ADDITIONS: F Derrick Brown, C Tyson Chandler, G Gerald Henderson, G Ronald Murray
SUBTRACTIONS: F Sean May, F/C Emeka Okafor
STARTERS: PG – Raymond Felton, SG – Raja Bell, SF – Gerald Wallace, PF – Boris Diaw, C – Tyson Chandler
ROTATION: G DJ Augustin, F Derrick Brown, C DeSagana Diop, G Gerald Henderson, C Nazr Mohammed, G Ronald Murray, F Vladimir Radmanovic
OUTLOOK: Charlotte pulled off one of the bigger trades of the summer, sending Emeka Okafor to the Hornets in exchange for Tyson Chandler. While the two players are similar on the court (Okafor is a better offensive player while Chandler, when healthy, has athleticism that makes him a more versatile defender), this deal was primarily done for salary cap reasons. Chandler’s value, sadly, is not necessarily based in whether or not he can help the Bobcats improve on their franchise-best 35-win mark last season.
Prior to last season, Chandler had been mostly healthy in his career, playing in at least 71 games in six of the previous seven seasons. The primary concern for his health is that his rebounding rate, which was over a dozen boards per 36 minutes the previous five seasons, tapered off to just under ten last season. Chandler’s rebounding prowess is needed badly, as Boris Diaw, who flourished offensively after coming from Phoenix in a trade, just does not bring it to the glass. Diaw does, however, provide excellent passing as part of a diverse offensive game, making 70 threes in 59 games as a Bobcat after connecting on 56 in the first 400 of his NBA career (and at a much higher shooting rate, as well, 41.9 percent to 27.2 percent). Gerald Wallace returns as the team’s leading scorer, but his steal and block rates have tapered off considerably, perhaps as a result of the accumulated bumps and bruises that accompany his reckless, high-flying style. Raja Bell provides a less statistical, more bread-and-butter impact on defense, as usual, but added a slightly greater offensive impact after getting traded by the Suns. Raymond Felton signed a one-year contract to stay in Charlotte and would be well-served to make better decisions and more than 28.5 percent of his treys in his second crack at a contract year.
DJ Augustin had a solid rookie season for the ‘Cats, leading the squad in three-pointers and averaging nearly a dozen points per game. The hope in Charlotte is likely that Augustin improves his point guard skills (2.1-to-1 assist-to-turnover ratio) enough this year that Felton can walk after the season or be shipped out at the trade deadline. Ronald “Flip” Murray provides a third short, yet proficient backcourt scorer and Gerald Henderson provides another defensive effort player who can play both swingman spots while adjusting to the league. The frontcourt bench players are very weak. The forwards are Vladimir Radmanovic, a three-point shooter who offers little else, and Derrick Brown, a solid rookie from Xavier whose transition to the NBA could be choppy. DeSagana Diop provides size and defense while Nazr Mohammed is not likely to see much action due to his advancing age and declining skills.
MIAMI HEAT
ADDITIONS: G/F Quentin Richardson
SUBTRACTIONS: C Mark Blount, F Jamario Moon
STARTERS: PG – Mario Chalmers, SG – Dwyane Wade, SF – Michael Beasley, PF – Udonis Haslem, C – Jermaine O’Neal
ROTATION: C Joel Anthony, G Carlos Arroyo, G Daequan Cook, F James Jones, G Chris Quinn, G/F Quentin Richardson, G/F Dorell Wright
OUTLOOK: The Heat bounced back nicely last season, as Dwyane Wade carried them to 43 wins, an improvement of 28 wins from the preceding campaign. The problem for the Heat is those two words – “Wade carried.” The All-NBA performer and league’s leading scorer last year simply did not have much help. A weak surrounding cast of youth, age, and question marks returns around Wade.
Mario Chalmers did a serviceable job last season as a rookie at the point for Miami, but the Heat would love to have a better option available, if only just to take a little more of the ballhandling load off Wade’s shoulders. Chalmers is a good defender and offers good size at the point. Hopefully, he is able to take a significant step forward in his sophomore season. Wade is a dominant player who can do just about everything. Asking for improvement from him (improved three-point shooting and turnovers – partially due to his high ballhandling and usage rate – are his two biggest deficiencies) is just nit-picking. Michael Beasley’s, um, interesting summer put additional pressure on last season’s top draft pick. He is apparently in improved shape, but will need to show increased foot speed and shooting range to preserve a starting spot at the three and give Miami their best group on the floor for as long as possible. Udonis Haslem is a rock at the four, providing defense and rebounding. Miami could really use a season of 70+ games out of Jermaine O’Neal. O’Neal still demands attention on the low post and his interior scoring complements Wade nicely. He also is still a solid deterrent at the rim and good rebounder.
Backup point Chris Quinn is a fringe NBA player who can be exploited on both ends of the court. Quinn’s roster spot, or at least his rotation spot, may be usurped by Carlos Arroyo, who was a late addition to Heat training camp on a non-guaranteed contract and began pushing for a permanent roster spot immediately. Daequan Cook, James Jones, and Quentin Richardson should help out Wade by being available on the perimeter for kick-outs. Cook made 153 three-pointers last season (14th in the league), Jones is a 39.3 percent shooter from deep in his career, and Richardson buried 120 treys while with the Knicks last year. Jones and Richardson, however, would ideally only be used in short stretches when the floor needs to be stretched. Dorell Wright is a solid rebounder, but not a great shooter and should focus on improving his defense as it is the shortest distance to being a major contributor on the Heat. Joel Anthony is a shot-blocking specialist, but lacks skills on offense and is a poor rebounder to boot. Haslem is likely to see minutes at the pivot when O’Neal rests with Beasley sliding to the four.
ORLANDO MAGIC
ADDITIONS: F Ryan Anderson, G/F Matt Barnes, F Brandon Bass, G/F Vince Carter
SUBTRACTIONS: G Rafer Alston, F/C Tony Battie, G Courtney Lee, F Hedo Turkoglu
STARTERS: PG – Jameer Nelson, SG – Vince Carter, SF – Mickael Pietrus, PF – Rashard Lewis, C – Dwight Howard
ROTATION: G/F Matt Barnes, F Brandon Bass, F/C Marcin Gortat, G Anthony Johnson, G JJ Redick
OUTLOOK: The Magic rolled up 59 victories on their way to a berth in the NBA Finals last year. Stan Van Gundy showed that he is an excellent coach, getting career-best performances from Jameer Nelson and the now-departed Hedo Turkoglu. The bar has been raised even higher for the Magic, as a blockbuster offseason trade brought in Vince Carter to replace Turkoglu and they made a couple free agency moves to complement their starters.
Carter brings his perimeter marksmanship to the Magic, having made 151 three-pointers last year in New Jersey without the benefit of an inside player anywhere near the caliber of Dwight Howard on that roster. What remains to be seen is how the absence of Turkoglu’s playmaking, particularly late in games, affects the team. Carter, however, is an adept passer, averaging over four assists per game in each of the last six seasons and this is the most talented cast Carter has ever played with. Howard is simply a dominant force down low and still only turns 24 early this season. 24. Think about that for a second. If Howard develops consistent touch around the rim, he will be unstoppable. Jameer Nelson comes back from injury and a full season from him should help the team. The vast difference in Nelson’s game last year was his perimeter shooting, as he drained 45.3 percent of his triples. Mickael Pietrus, who also missed a couple months last season due to injury, gets the “defensive stopper” role for the Magic. Pietrus, however, also is a perimeter threat, giving the Magic four starters with consistent three-point range. Oh, the fourth three-point shooting starter. Rashard Lewis led the league with 220 three-pointers, hitting almost 40 percent of his league-high 554 hoists from deep.
Anthony Johnson will get the backup point guard job again, as Rafer Alston was sent out in the Carter trade. Like seemingly everyone else on the Magic roster, Johnson was also prolific from outside, making over 39 percent from beyond the stripe. Matt Barnes provides a tough attitude off the bench as well as, stop me if you have heard this before, three-point shooting. He can handle either wing position. JJ Redick again will pine away on the bench for playing time, but his ballhandling and defensive deficiencies will keep him on the bench in spite of his… three-point shooting (37.4 percent from beyond the arc). The Magic have run out of long-range bombers just as I have exhausted ways to describe them. Brandon Bass is an undersized power forward who came over from Dallas as a free agent. Bass provides hustle and effort on the offensive glass. Marcin Gortat, who the Mavericks tried to sign away to replace Bass in their rotation, had his contract offer matched by the Orlando front office. Gortat is a developing talent, but is blocked by Howard. The seven-footer can provide 15 strong minutes off the bench when Howard rests, however, and may see time on the floor against other teams with size, such as Cleveland.
WASHINGTON WIZARDS
ADDITIONS: G Randy Foye, G/F Mike Miller, F Fabricio Oberto
SUBTRACTIONS: F Darius Songaila, F Etan Thomas
STARTERS: PG – Gilbert Arenas, SG – DeShawn Stevenson, SF – Caron Butler, PF – Antawn Jamison, C – Brendan Haywood
ROTATION: F Andray Blatche, G Randy Foye, C JaVale McGee, G/F Mike Miller, F Fabricio Oberto, G/F Nick Young
OUTLOOK: Flip Saunders has been imported to replace Eddie Jordan as the head coach, bringing a winning percentage just under .600 and four conference finals appearances in a dozen campaigns. The Princeton offense is out and Flip’s playbook, which resembles one of those giant dictionaries at the local library that doubles as a weight for bicep curls, is in. Saunders, however, has lots of offensive weapons at his disposal, which allows him to be creative, mixing and matching players both as he sees fit and as the team’s health allows. Oh, that team health.
Gilbert Arenas spent a portion of his summer rehabbing under Tim Grover in Chicago and raved about the work. Reports about Arenas are that he looks like the Arenas of old and he has gotten off to a solid start in the exhibition portion of the schedule, but it obviously remains to be seen what he can contribute throughout the full season. DeShawn Stevenson will be the designated stopper for the Wizards on the perimeter, as he is the fifth-best perimeter threat on the team. Caron Butler provides toughness on both ends of the court and, should he be healthy for the full season, will give the team an edge they may otherwise lack. Butler is well-rounded, but his slide in rebounding is mystifying, especially considering the lack of proven boardwork on the roster last year. Antawn Jamison cracked 20 points per game for the fifth time in his career last season, tying his second-highest mark at 22.2 points per contest. He is as automatic a scorer as they come from the non-elites of the league. Brendan Haywood is back from his lost season where he saw a total of six games of action. If Haywood can simply provide production the level he did two seasons ago (ten points, seven rebounds, and two blocks per game), the Wizards will be fortunate.
The Washington bench is one of the deepest in the league and is headlined by two new acquisitions: Mike Miller and Randy Foye. Miller likely will not average double figures in scoring, but will display a diverse game off the bench, as he is surrounded by the best cast of his career. The former Rookie of the Year will probably be given some playmaking duties (which he can handle) and definitely be counted on to knock down about 40 percent of his attempts from downtown. Foye had a breakthrough season last year, scoring 16.3 points per game for the Timberwolves. He will have combo guard duties off the bench. Nick Young looks to take a step forward in his third season, but it will not be shown in his production. Young took advantage of his teammates’ injuries last season, averaging 10.9 points per game, but the talent injection to the roster will likely prevent him from getting enough playing time and shots to match that mark. The Wiz will be satisfied if Young can take better care of the ball and provide an impact on defense. Andray Blatche will once again be asked to translate his talent into actual production at the four spot while former Spur Fabricio Oberto will provide experience down low. JaVale McGee showed promise in his rookie season and will likely be given the backup minutes behind Haywood. That translates to about 20 minutes per game of glass-cleaning and shot-blocking.
PROJECTED DIVISION STANDINGS:
1. Orlando
2. Washington
3. Atlanta
4. Miami
5. Charlotte
The Magic should threaten 60 wins this season en route to the division title. Riding a combination of the return to health of Gilbert Arenas and Brendan Haywood, as well as the acquisition of injury protection depth in the form of Randy Foye and Mike Miller, the Wizards should be in the 50-win neighborhood. Atlanta should get another season of improvement out of their youth and be hot on the heels of Washington. Dwyane Wade will be hard-pressed to coax 45 wins out of the Heat again, as the Eastern Conference is tougher this time around and he has mostly the same supporting cast of last season. The Bobcats’ lack of an elite scorer is a major issue, as is the frontcourt depth, which will be a significant problem should Tyson Chandler get dinged again.
